Africa Growth
December 2022
Africa Growth forecasts economic activity in all African countries for the next 2 years. Forecasts are updated monthly based on all available information - which vary a lot between countries but include: national accounts, surveys, industrial production, price indicators, commodities, trade, stock markets as well as less common data such as news sentiment, air pollution and nighttime light.
- Real GDP growth for the whole continent is expected to reach 4.6% in 2022 and 5% in 2023.
- Latest growth for second quarter of 2022 (year-on-year): +2.0% in Morroco, +6.4% in Côte d’Ivoire, +5.6% in Botswana, +1.6% in Algeria. Most of the latest results in line with expectations.
- Concerns regarding inflation remain high: 12 countries recorded an inflation rate higher than 10% in November, and 10 higher than 20% including Zimbabwe (+255%), Ghana (+50.3%), Ethiopia (+35.1%), Nigeria (+21.5%), Egypt (+18.7%).
Predicted real GDP growth (in %)
2022
2023
| GDP (2021) | GDP per capita | 5-years average | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
$ billions | $ PPP | % | % | % | % | % | |
|
|
Africa | 648771.2 | 5550 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 5 | 4.6 | 5 |
|
|
Northern Africa | 13105.4 | 11350 | 1.8 | -2.8 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3 |
|
Algeria | 162.7 | 12051 | 0.4 | -5.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2 |
|
Egypt | 423.1 | 14256 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 5 | 4.6 |
|
Libya | 39 | 21929 | 5.6 | -29.5 | 28.3 | -6 | 7.5 |
|
Morocco | 142.9 | 9177 | 2.4 | -7.2 | 7.9 | 2 | 3.2 |
|
Sudan | 35.1 | 4275 | -1.4 | -3.6 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
|
Tunisia | 46.8 | 11515 | 0.2 | -8.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
|
|
Western Africa | 247913.4 | 4563 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5 |
|
Benin | 17.7 | 3798 | 6 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 5.9 |
|
Burkina Faso | 19.1 | 2463 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
|
Côte d’Ivoire | 70.1 | 5808 | 5.9 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6.4 |
|
Cabo Verde | 2.1 | 7685 | 3.2 | -14.8 | 7 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
|
Ghana | 79.2 | 6245 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
|
Guinea | 16.1 | 2738 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
|
Gambia | 2 | 2417 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
|
Guinea-Bissau | 1.7 | 2622 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 4 |
|
Liberia | 3.5 | 1536 | 0.6 | -3 | 5 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
|
Mali | 19.2 | 2447 | 3.3 | -1.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 5 |
|
Mauritania | 9.9 | 6354 | 3.6 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
|
Niger | 15 | 1310 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
|
Nigeria | 441.5 | 5459 | 1.4 | -1.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
|
Senegal | 27.6 | 3767 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 5.9 |
|
Sierra Leone | 4.1 | 1835 | 2.9 | -2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5 |
|
Togo | 8.4 | 2377 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.7 |
|
|
Middle Africa | 58825.4 | 3062 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
|
Angola | 75.2 | 6970 | -1.4 | -5.8 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
|
Central African Republic | 2.6 | 1021 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
|
Cameroon | 45.4 | 4073 | 3 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 4 | 4.2 |
|
DR Congo | 56.6 | 1206 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7 |
|
Congo | 12.6 | 4295 | -3.7 | -8.1 | -0.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
|
Gabon | 20.2 | 16643 | 1 | -1.9 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
|
Equatorial Guinea | 12.3 | 17687 | -5 | -4.2 | -3.2 | -4.3 | -5.2 |
|
Sao Tome | 0.5 | 4415 | 2.8 | 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
|
Chad | 11.8 | 1598 | 0 | -2.2 | -1.1 | 2.8 | 3 |
|
|
Eastern Africa | 324032.9 | 2888 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
|
Burundi | 3.4 | 805 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
|
Comoros | 1.3 | 3162 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3 |
|
Djibouti | 3.4 | 5954 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.6 |
|
Eritrea | 2.2 | 1923 | 1.8 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3 |
|
Ethiopia | 99.3 | 3137 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.7 |
|
Kenya | 110.5 | 5548 | 4.4 | -0.2 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
|
Madagascar | 14.3 | 1648 | 1.7 | -7.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
|
Mozambique | 15.8 | 1348 | 2.1 | -1.2 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
|
Mauritius | 11.2 | 22278 | -0.1 | -14.9 | 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
|
Malawi | 12 | 1511 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
|
Rwanda | 11.1 | 2555 | 5.9 | -3.4 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
|
Somalia | 7.6 | 1245 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
|
South Sudan | 5.2 | 843 | -1.6 | -6.5 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.4 |
|
Seychelles | 1.5 | 31988 | 2.2 | -7.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 5 |
|
Tanzania | 70.3 | 3105 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
|
Uganda | 43 | 2780 | 5.1 | -1.4 | 6.7 | 5 | 5.6 |
|
Zambia | 21.3 | 3559 | 2.2 | -2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4 |
|
Zimbabwe | 32.9 | 2364 | 1.1 | -5.2 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
|
|
Southern Africa | 4894.1 | 13958 | 0.4 | -6.4 | 5.1 | 2 | 1.7 |
|
Botswana | 17.6 | 17579 | 2.8 | -8.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 |
|
Lesotho | 2.5 | 2801 | NA | -6 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
|
Namibia | 12.3 | 9960 | -1.2 | -8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
|
Eswatini | 4.7 | 10185 | 2.7 | -1.6 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 |
|
South Africa | 418.9 | 14442 | 0.3 | -6.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 |