c8alpha Idea Scout — Week of 2026-09-20

533 episodes · 362 hours listened · 252 ideas extracted this week · 2026-W38 · window: last 14 days · 10 consensus · 3 divergences · 24 outside picks

Research only. Aggregates public statements from canonical investors (podcasts, interviews, 13F filings). Not a trading signal, not a recommendation.

Six managers landed long IEF in a ten-day window at the same moment six others were building short positions in it — Jeffrey Gundlach ● and David Rosenberg ● on opposite sides of the same instrument — a convergence that fired in both directions simultaneously, which happens almost never. The bitcoin consensus that held through the prior period dissolved through attrition rather than reversal: no one publicly flipped, positions simply aged out of the fourteen-day window, which may be the most honest kind of fade.

Josh Brown, Kevin Mahn, and Shawn O'Malley each independently stepped into Uber within days of one another, clearing the convergence threshold in a single-name consumer story that was not on the board a week ago. Investment-grade credit arrived at five voices — Harley Bassman among the names who weren't there last week — suggesting the crowd decided in a single week to reach simultaneously for yield and equities, even as it could not agree on what the long end of the curve is worth.

Names link to what each person has said on the record. Bullish and bearish are stated views; a name with ● also said they hold the position this week. Counts below show both.

Convergence Watch

Independent managers landing on the same name, same side, within days of each other — the rarest agreement shape on the board. The facts, and the honest history of what followed setups like it. What to do with that is yours.

3 VOICES 5th manager in 10 days went long IEF
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
Aswath Damodaran (Wealth Building Blueprint – Vladyslav Grabarskyy), Gregory Daco (Bloomberg Surveillance), David Rosenberg (David Lin), Alli Mccartney (Bloomberg The Close), Rachana Mehta (Bloomberg The Close)
RMB corporate bonds hedged to USD yield ~5% with dramatically lower US-rate-driven volatility than equivalent…

3 VOICES 3rd manager in 10 days went long BTC-USD
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
Matt Hougan (Bitwise) (Forward Guidance), Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), Lyn Alden (What Bitcoin Did)
Fiscal dominance and persistent debasement of fiat expand the total addressable market for non-debasable…

3 VOICES 6th manager in 10 days went long SPY
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
Lyn Alden (Eurodollar Talk), David Friedberg (Jeremy Grantham), Brooks Cutright (Bloomberg ETF IQ), Scott Chronert (Bloomberg Open Interest), Alli Mccartney (Bloomberg The Close), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (Tom Lee)
S&P 500 can reach 8,200 or higher by year-end because 2027 earnings expectations have risen from roughly $350…

3 VOICES 6th manager in 10 days went short IEF
The last 81 setups like this: 65% moved the speakers' way over 20 sessions, median +0.7% in their favor.
Marc Faber (Wealthion), Julia Coronado (Bloomberg Open Interest), Louis Vincent Gave (Louis-Vincent Gave), Rajeev De Mello (Bloomberg The Close), Mohamed El-Erian (Chora Media), Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital)
AI sector IG spreads have already widened from 50 to 125bps and HY from 180 to 325bps while the broader…

3 VOICES 3rd manager in 10 days went long UBER
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
Shawn O Malley (Yet Another Value Podcast), Kevin Mahn (Hennion & Walsh) (Yet Another Value Podcast), Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's personal purchase of 141,000 shares signals conviction in strategy, and ongoing…

3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long USO
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
David Rosenberg (David Lin), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices), Jeff Currie (Bloomberg The Close), Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show)
Iran war has created a genuine shortage of petroleum and refined products globally — not a price issue but a…

3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long LQD
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
Rachana Mehta (Bloomberg The Close), Robert Tipp (Bloomberg The Close), Priya Misra (Bloomberg The Close), Rick Rieder (CNBC Halftime Committee)
Sub-3-year duration high-grade bonds (BlackRock's BANK ETF) yield 7.2% at A-minus average rating with low…

3 VOICES 3rd manager in 10 days went long VIXY
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
Larry Mcdonald (Julia La Roche Show), Dan Nathan (Riskreversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Dean Curnutt (Forward Guidance)
Record-low stock correlations are artificially suppressing realized S&P vol and hence the VIX; AI/hyperscaler…

Consensus — New This Week

Themes where at least 3 speakers landed on the same side in the last 14 days, with no more than one voice against. This is the week’s news — where agreement formed or hardened. A theme tagged standing 90d was already near-unanimous before this week, so the fresh voices are joining a crowded trade rather than starting one.

ThemeProxyDirectionSpeakersWho & where
GOLD standing 90dGLDBULLISH20Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), Danielle Dimartino Booth (Danielle DiMartino Booth), David Einhorn (David Einhorn), David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), David Woo (Capital Allocators), Felix Jauvin (Forward Guidance), Guy Adami (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Jeffrey Gundlach (Julia La Roche Show), Jens Nordvig (The Compound), John Love (The Acquirers Podcast), John Rubino (Capital Allocators), Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden), Mark Skousen (Wealthion), Michael Green (Simplify) (Wealthion), Michael Howell (Michael Howell), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices), Quinn Thompson (Forward Guidance), Russell Napier (Russell Napier), Stanley Druckenmiller (Stanley Druckenmiller), Trey Reik (Wealthion)
INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT standing 90dLQDBULLISH5Harley Bassman (Macro Voices), Priya Misra (Bloomberg The Close), Rachana Mehta (Bloomberg The Close), Rick Rieder (CNBC Halftime Committee), Robert Tipp (Bloomberg The Close)
AAPL standing 90dAAPLBULLISH4Amy Rascin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Dan Ives (The Compound), Gene Munster (Bloomberg Surveillance), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
ENERGY standing 90dXLEBULLISH4Dan Suzuki (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Guy Adami (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (Wealthion)
NFLX standing 90dNFLXBULLISH4Jason Snip (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Simeon Mcmillan (Yet Another Value Podcast), Tom Russo (Tom Russo)
NVDANVDABULLISH4 (1 dissenter)Brad Gerstner (All-In Podcast), Dan Ives (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (The Compound)
OILUSOBULLISH4 (1 dissenter)Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), Jeff Currie (Bloomberg The Close), Jeffrey Gundlach (Julia La Roche Show), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices)
UBER standing 90dUBERBULLISH3Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Kevin Mahn (Hennion & Walsh) (Yet Another Value Podcast), Shawn O Malley (Yet Another Value Podcast)
EM_EQUITIES standing 90dEEMBULLISH3David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Jeffrey Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach), Russell Napier (Russell Napier)
SILVER standing 90dSLVBULLISH3Brent Johnson (Brent Johnson), Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), John Rubino (Capital Allocators)

Every name above has a receipt — the interview, the date, the quote. Those ride in The Brief, the daily edition.

Divergence

Themes with ≥3 speakers on each side. The split itself is the signal — the fault line between camps often reveals more than the count does.

LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT)9 LONG vs 8 SHORT
LONG: Cameron Dawson (Bloomberg The Close), Julian Emanuel (Bloomberg The Close), Justin Bergner (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Larry Mcdonald (Julia La Roche Show), Michael Green (Simplify) (Wealthion), Nimrit Kang (Bloomberg The Close), Priya Misra (Bloomberg The Close), Rick Rieder (CNBC Halftime Committee), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
SHORT: David Woo (Capital Allocators), Felix Jauvin (Forward Guidance), Jeffrey Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach), Michael Howell (Michael Howell), Mike Wilson (Bloomberg Surveillance), Nate Geraci (Bloomberg ETF IQ), Richard Bernstein Janus Henderson (Bloomberg Surveillance), Ven Ram (Bloomberg The Close)

USTS (IEF)6 LONG vs 10 SHORT
LONG: Chris Harvey Cibc (Bloomberg Surveillance), David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Henrik Zeberg (Wealthion), Matt Hornbach Morgan Stanley (Bloomberg Surveillance), Omar Aguilar (Bloomberg Surveillance), Rachana Mehta (Bloomberg The Close)
SHORT: Cameron Dawson (Bloomberg The Close), Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), Dan Suzuki (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Jeffrey Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach), Mark Skousen (Wealthion), Mohamed El-Erian (Mohamed El-Erian), Neil Dutta (Bloomberg The Close), Rajeev De Mello (Bloomberg The Close), Russell Napier (Russell Napier), Subadra Rajappa (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)

SPX (SPY)6 LONG vs 8 SHORT
LONG: Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)), Ed Yardeni (Bloomberg The Close), Julian Emanuel (Bloomberg The Close), Sherry Paul (Bloomberg The Close), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (The Compound), Venu Krishna (Bloomberg Surveillance)
SHORT: Chris Harvey Cibc (Bloomberg Surveillance), David Woo (Capital Allocators), Dean Curnutt (Forward Guidance), Jeffrey Gundlach (Julia La Roche Show), Justin Bergner (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Neil Dutta (Bloomberg The Close), Savita Subramanian (Bloomberg The Close), Zeke Ashton (The Acquirers Podcast)

The Standing Map — 90 Days

The weekly view shows what changed; this shows where the crowd stands. Every speaker's most recent statement in the last 90 days, one stance per person. The fault lines here run deeper than any single week.

Contested — the crowd is split

ThemeSplitLeansBullishBearish
SPX28–26
positioned 1–2
BULLISHTom Lee (Fundstrat), Ed Yardeni, Julian Emanuel, Sherry Paul +24Savita Subramanian, Neil Dutta, Jeffrey Gundlach, Dean Curnutt +22
USTS25–25
positioned 2–0
EVENHenrik Zeberg, Jeff Sherman, Priya Misra, David Rosenberg +21Russell Napier, Mark Skousen, Jeffrey Gundlach, Dan Suzuki +21
LONG_DUR_TREASURIES17–31
positioned 3–0
BEARISHRob Sichin, Julian Emanuel, Rick Rieder, Nimrit Kang +13Jeffrey Gundlach, Richard Bernstein Janus Henderson, Nate Geraci, Felix Jauvin +27
BIG_TECH12–12
positioned 0–1
EVENSavita Subramanian, Tom Lee (Fundstrat), Dan Skelly, Raoul Pal +8David Einhorn, Henrik Zeberg, Scott Chronert, Jeremy Grantham +8
NVDA22–10
positioned 2–0
BULLISHTom Lee (Fundstrat), Brad Gerstner, Dan Ives, Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) +18Aswath Damodaran, Chris Whalen, Ed Zitron, Joachim Klement +6
BITCOIN18–10
positioned 2–1
BULLISHHenrik Zeberg, Cathie Wood, Tom Lee (Fundstrat), Lyn Alden +14Russell Napier, Harley Bassman, Michael Howell, Jim Chanos +6

Crowded — Near-Unanimous Over 90 Days

Where the crowd already stands, measured over the full 90 days — not this week’s news. A theme tagged + new this week is still drawing fresh voices; the untagged ones have been settled for a while and added nobody in the last 14 days.

GOLD BULLISH (56 for, 14 positioned, 4 against) + new this week · ENERGY BULLISH (30 for, 4 positioned, 0 against) + new this week · INDUSTRIALS BULLISH (17 for, 2 positioned, 1 against) · META BULLISH (13 for, 2 positioned, 2 against) · SILVER BULLISH (15 for, 1 positioned, 0 against) + new this week · GOOGL BULLISH (12 for, 1 positioned, 3 against) · NFLX BULLISH (12 for, 2 positioned, 0 against) + new this week · INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT BULLISH (10 for, 2 against) + new this week

Changed their mind

The hardest signal to fake: a public reversal. Direction changes that landed in the last 90 days, with how long the prior view stood.

SpeakerThemeWasNowHeld prior view
David RosenbergLONG_DUR_TREASURIESBULLISH (2026-06-19)BEARISH (2026-08-21)3,349d
Harley BassmanMORTGAGE_REITSBULLISH (2020-07-04)BEARISH (2026-09-17)2,266d
Ray DalioBITCOINBULLISH (2025-01-28)BEARISH (2026-07-30)1,733d
Lacy HuntLONG_DUR_TREASURIESBULLISH (2026-04-13)BEARISH (2026-07-28)1,040d
Jeremy GranthamUSTSBEARISH (2023-09-06)BULLISH (2026-06-25)1,023d
Lyn AldenUSTSBULLISH (2025-11-18)BEARISH (2026-08-09)985d
Terry SmithULVRBULLISH (2024-04-10)BEARISH (2026-07-27)838d
Paul SankeyENERGYBEARISH (2024-08-28)BULLISH (2026-08-31)733d

Single Names

One speaker, one name, one reason — not a crowd measurement. Ordered by how specific the idea is, so an argued pitch outranks a round-robin mention. The speaker’s prior 90d record rides alongside as context; a speaker with no scoreable history yet is shown and labelled, not hidden. Each call is fresh — its own result is still maturing. None of these sit inside a consensus or split above.

NameWhoWhy
LONG PRTHAndrew Walker
90d +14.2% · 62% hit · n=8 (Yet Another Value Podcast)
Asymmetric event-driven situation where chairman's opportunistic $6.00-6.15 take-private bid — launched two days after an earnings-driven drop from ~$7 to ~$5 — sets a hard floor ~10% above current pr
LONG KRMN
Karman Holdings
Griffonomics
no record yet (Capital Allocators)
Karman Holdings is the sole-source provider of unbypassable high-temperature composites and ablative components for the Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor, meaning every Congressional authorization for Pat
LONG PRTHZack Buckley
no record yet (Yet Another Value Podcast)
Treasury Solutions (80%+ EBITDA margins, 60% of business) is severely misunderstood as a payments company when it is effectively high-margin recurring-revenue software, trading at 4-5x true FCF with 1
LONG FERG
Ferguson Enterprises
Justin Bergner
no record yet (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
Ferguson Enterprises is the largest US building products distributor with 50% non-residential exposure including ~15% of non-res sales from data centers, consistently outgrows end markets by 300-400bp
LONG HEIOTom Russo
90d -0.6% · 55% hit · n=11 (Tom Russo)
Heineken Holding shares trade at a 20% discount to the publicly traded Heineken NV ordinary shares despite essentially identical economic exposure — far wider than the historical ~5% spread — offering
LONG SJM
The J.M. Smucker
Justin Bergner
no record yet (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
Smucker has one of the better growth profiles in consumer staples with strong brands (Folgers, Jif, Uncrustables), 5% recent sales growth with positive volume, Elliott on the board driving capital dis
LONG ZIGAndrew Walker
90d +14.2% · 62% hit · n=8 (Yet Another Value Podcast)
The VCP aligning seven executives with up to £69M in share-based compensation contingent on the stock reaching 521p is a uniquely powerful catalyst absent in almost all UK companies, while the stock t
LONG ZIGSwen Lorenz
no record yet (Yet Another Value Podcast)
ZIGUP trades below 4x EBITDA and is underlevered, while a 7-executive Value Creation Plan paying up to £69M in shares above 521p by April 2028 creates powerful alignment that the board has so far squa
LONG MA
Mastercard Incorporated
Tom Russo
90d -0.6% · 55% hit · n=11 (Tom Russo)
Mastercard deliberately suppresses reported margins — EBIT barely moved from 51.9% in 2011 to 53.9% in 2021 despite explosive volume growth — reinvesting what should be windfall profits into its globa
LONG HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings
Pershing Square / Ackman (13F)
90d -1.6% · 46% hit · n=13 (Bill Ackman)
Howard Hughes trades at $72 while carrying roughly $110-120 of underlying real estate NAV per share, plus a newly-acquired insurance platform (Vantage) staffed with best-in-class leadership (ex-Arch C
LONG DCREJeffrey Gundlach
90d +0.6% · 44% hit · n=154 (Julia La Roche Show)
High-quality top-of-capital-structure commercial real estate with only 2-year duration yields ~6%, offering a substantial spread over T-bills while carrying minimal rate sensitivity — better dry-powde
LONG SCHW
The Charles Schwab
Chris Whalen
90d -4.4% · 41% hit · n=44 (Julia La Roche Show)
Schwab keeps growing and carries minimal credit risk relative to the broader bank complex, making it one of the more durable plays in a sector under stress from rising deposit costs and a weak bond po
LONG PSUS
Pershing Square USA
Pershing Square / Ackman (13F)
90d -1.6% · 46% hit · n=13 (Bill Ackman)
PSUS trades at a 21% discount to NAV of a liquid, high-quality business portfolio due to a retail over-allocation overhang at IPO that Ackman believes will dissipate, making it a dollar of assets for
LONG MAIN
Main Street Capital
Mark Skousen
no record yet (Wealthion)
Main Street Capital is the only stock paying both monthly and quarterly dividends at 7% yield, invests in pre-IPO private companies with a 99% non-default record, and has beaten the market since incep
LONG DCMTJeffrey Gundlach
90d +0.6% · 44% hit · n=154 (Julia La Roche Show)
Commodity prices at new highs driven by oil above $100, depleted global strategic reserves, and CPI re-accelerating above 4%; rules-based monthly rebalancing limits single-commodity concentration
LONG ERFTom Russo
90d -0.6% · 55% hit · n=11 (Tom Russo)
Eurofins Scientific (captioned as 'Euroin Scientific' — a family-controlled testing and certification company) fits the core reinvestment template: the founding family patriarch directs operating prof
LONG HAPIDavid Van Adelsberg
no record yet (Bloomberg ETF IQ)
Intrinsic employee motivation factors — trust, purpose, and sense of appreciation — are measurable across a 20-year dataset and have been independently validated by JP Morgan as strictly dominating al
SHORT NTDOYSimeon Mcmillan
no record yet (Yet Another Value Podcast)
Switch 2 attach rate came in well below Switch 1 even after Nintendo gave away Mario Kart in the bundle, Nintendo Switch Online accounts are flat for years, a mid-cycle price increase signals memory c
LONG FFFMichael Monaghan
no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz))
Founder-led companies outperform the S&P by ~4% annually (3X edge over 30 years, 11,000 stocks) because founders supply long-horizon vision, execution, and grit that board-hired CEOs optimising for th
LONG VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Larry Mcdonald
90d +4.6% · 61% hit · n=33 (Julia La Roche Show)
Equity volatility is historically cheap relative to accumulating risks — crowded financial longs at record price-to-book, hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet data center debt rhyming with 2006,
LONG ONDS
Ondas Inc. Common Stock
Griffonomics
no record yet (Capital Allocators)
Ondas Holdings holds sole-source intellectual property on autonomous drone-in-a-box perimeter networks that allow drones to launch, patrol, land, and recharge without human intervention — the military
LONG DICEPaisley Nardini
no record yet (Bloomberg ETF IQ)
Prediction markets have grown explosively since the 2024 elections and will keep expanding across politics and sports; DICE owns the infrastructure layer — Kalshi, Polymarket, and broader exchanges —
LONG PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A Common Stock
Griffonomics
no record yet (Capital Allocators)
CJADC2 executive mandates force open-architecture vendor-agnostic software across all platforms, allowing Palantir to insert itself into the center of combat networks and capture prime contract dollar
LONG CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
Tom Russo
90d -0.6% · 55% hit · n=11 (Tom Russo)
Richemont's family control and closed share registry permanently insulate management from activists demanding short-term margin, allowing patient brand investment; branded jewelry is only 10% of a gro

Structured & Paired Trades — one voice each

Multi-leg views — pairs, hedges, spreads, baskets — each from ONE speaker. A relationship or hedged trade rather than a naked direction, so these are tracked separately from the consensus tallies above. Research only.

SpeakerTypeStructureHorizonThesis
Rob VinallBASKETLONG LKNCY / LONG TCEHY / LONG HTHT / LONG YUMC / LONG DIDIYmulti-yearFounder-led Chinese consumer and internet companies with wide moats trade at deep discounts due to persistently negative market sentiment toward China, yet deliver 10%+ earnings growth plus 5%+ annual (We Study Billionaires)
Vincent DeluardOTHERSHORT EUR/JPY / LONG USD (UUP) / LONG BRL/EURmulti-yearEurope will follow Japan's 2012-era currency debasement path due to structural demographic decline, adverse terms-of-trade shock from China, and fiscal dominance; short EUR vs JPY is the core pair, wi (Forward Guidance)
Vincent DeluardPAIRLONG GOLD (GLD) / SHORT UNKNOWNmulti-yearEuropean currency debasement will drive gold in EUR terms just as Japanese debasement drove gold in JPY terms from 2012 onward, making long gold / short EUR the cleanest single expression of the Europ (Forward Guidance)
Vincent DeluardPAIRLONG UNKNOWN / SHORT UNKNOWNmulti-yearCanada's natural resource base and Carney's bipartisan reform agenda make CAD a complementary long to add to an existing short EUR position, augmenting carry and diversifying the European debasement t (Forward Guidance)
Bill BarooOTHERSHORT AAPL / LONG NVDA / LONG AVGO / LONG AMZNweeksApple is two standard deviations above its median valuation after outperforming all year — trim and redeploy into Nvidia, Broadcom, and Amazon, which are better positioned to drive the next MAG7 ETF b (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
Rob SichinBASKETLONG BANKS (KBE) / LONG MS / LONG GSmonthsCapital-markets-oriented banks will outperform other financials as a surge in deal activity, equity issuances, and fixed-income volatility creates substantial trading and underwriting revenue for firm (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
David EinhornPAIRLONG GOLD (GLD) / SHORT BIG_TECH (QQQ)multi-yearGold should significantly outperform NASDAQ over 3–5 years as AI capex destroys tech earnings quality while dedollarization and US fiscal deterioration structurally bid up gold as a reserve asset (David Einhorn)
Dan SuzukiBASKETLONG FINANCIALS / LONG HEALTHCARE (XLV)monthsA barbell of financials and healthcare reduces dangerous concentration in big tech by owning sectors driven by different factors with reasonable valuations (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
Emily RolandPAIRLONG SPX (SPY) / SHORT EUROPEAN_EQUITIES (VGK)monthsUS energy independence insulates US equities from $100 oil while Europe's reliance on energy imports means it bears the brunt of elevated energy costs, creating a durable relative performance gap (Bloomberg Open Interest)
Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)OTHERLONG LONG_DUR_TREASURIES calls (TLT) / LONG LONG_DUR_TREASURIES puts (TLT)monthsTLT implied volatility at 12% sits at the bottom of its 1-year range while Bassman's fiscal credibility concerns, flattening yield curve, and mortgage convexity risks collectively argue for a large bo (Macro Voices)
Jeffrey GundlachPAIRLONG SPX (SPY) / SHORT SPX (SPY)multi-yearAI/tech concentration in the cap-weighted S&P has reached ~40% — a level consistent with historical mania-cycle apogees where concentration reverses — and AI stocks are already underperforming non-AI (Jeffrey Gundlach)
Jeffrey GundlachOTHERLONG USTS (IEF) / LONG EM_EQUITIES (EEM)multi-yearFixed income barbell pairing zero-corporate high-quality short-duration bonds (safety + carry) with local-currency EM debt (7%+ yield + dollar weakness currency gains), explicitly avoiding all AI and (Julia La Roche Show)

What Changed

Track Record Scoreboard

Top speakers by 90d mean signed return (n≥3). Long/short-aware. Refreshed each memo run — corpus expands, numbers move.

Speakern₉₀HitMean 90d
Caitlin Long3100%+49.6%
Nick Lawson5100%+41.4%
Alex Karnal3100%+39.0%
Andreas Lechner3100%+38.0%
Dennis Hong5100%+35.7%
Megan Leonard3100%+35.2%
Lou Basenese4100%+31.1%
Bill Gurley3100%+30.9%
Dan Mcmurtrie3100%+30.7%
Dylan Leclair367%+30.4%
Capital Flows1173%+29.4%
Jason Katz580%+28.9%
David Morgan4100%+27.5%
Pierre Lassonde4100%+26.9%
Dan Dolev560%+25.7%

One line from the fact feed

From the daily brief, session 2026-09-17. The paid edition carries the full feed every market morning — this is one row of it.

Volume out of the ordinary
ITW ($267.51): options volume ran 10.65× its own norm, call-tilted (97%) — settled end-of-day data, read against the name's own history, never the market's.
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