Detecting language using up to the first 30 seconds. Use `--language` to specify the language Detected language: English [00:00.000 --> 00:05.920] Well, earlier we spoke to Lambert Mende, Information Minister for the Democratic Republic of Congo. [00:05.920 --> 00:10.820] I asked him why he believes that it's opposition leader Etienne Chiesa-Kery supporters who [00:10.820 --> 00:13.820] are behind the attack. [00:13.820 --> 00:19.840] We know that these guys are organized in the gang in Paris. This is not the first aggression [00:19.840 --> 00:26.840] they are perpetrating there. They have already attacked the two officers of our police who [00:26.840 --> 00:35.680] were in Paris for treatment. They have attacked a lot of officials, ministers, and even musicians, [00:35.680 --> 00:42.920] artists going in Paris. They have attacked twice the embassy of Congo in Paris, and sometimes [00:42.920 --> 00:50.560] they have been arrested and taken in the office of the police for being ratified and interrogated [00:50.560 --> 00:57.760] but immediately released. So this move of our partners in Paris should have been sounding [00:57.760 --> 01:04.040] as an encouragement for them, though we are not interested in landing in controversy with [01:04.040 --> 01:10.760] our friends in Paris. We hope that something can be done to stop this gang. They are well [01:10.760 --> 01:18.280] ratified. Those are followers of Mr. Chiesa-Kery in alliance with some people who were working [01:18.280 --> 01:22.680] with the late Mobutu like Mr. Ngbanda. We know them very well. [01:22.680 --> 01:26.760] Well, we should just add there that there haven't been any arrests of opposition supporter [01:26.760 --> 01:32.760] Etienne Chiesa-Kery's supporters in relation to that attack. [01:32.760 --> 01:36.720] In other news, it's a happy birthday to the euro this Sunday as it celebrates 10 years [01:36.720 --> 01:41.520] since its creation. But for some, there's little to toast as Europe continues to try [01:41.520 --> 01:46.200] and fight the eurozone debt crisis and the rest of the world waits with bated breath [01:46.200 --> 01:50.320] to see how it'll impact on their economies. [01:50.320 --> 01:58.680] 2002 and enthusiasm over Europe's newly founded single currency was running high. Ten years [01:58.680 --> 02:04.960] later and the situation couldn't be more different. The debt crisis has rocked the continent leaving [02:04.960 --> 02:09.760] European leaders struggling to prevent the eurozone's fragmentation. Some have blamed [02:09.760 --> 02:12.680] the design flow in the euro's implementation. [02:12.680 --> 02:18.240] Obviously, we only had the monetary side. We didn't have the budgetary or fiscal aspects [02:18.240 --> 02:22.320] and we didn't have the politics to go with it. People who put their money together should [02:22.320 --> 02:26.840] also put political decisions about that money together too. I think that's what's behind [02:26.840 --> 02:31.480] the thinking when people say the euro was half-baked. [02:31.480 --> 02:37.000] Eurozone states have run up massive debts. It's meant to rise in Euroscepticism and some [02:37.000 --> 02:40.000] believe the worst could still be yet to come. [02:40.000 --> 02:49.120] I don't think Europe has hit bottom yet because no bank has gone bankrupt and not even Greece [02:49.120 --> 02:51.120] has declared bankruptcy. [02:51.120 --> 02:56.640] However, investors have found the political response to the debt crisis muddled at best. [02:56.640 --> 03:00.160] Sixteen summits in two years have done little to help. [03:00.160 --> 03:04.960] They said we agree where there was no agreement and they said there was a solution where there [03:04.960 --> 03:10.440] was none. Little by little, they've lost credibility. [03:10.440 --> 03:16.760] If 2011's been a bad year for the euro, it seems 2012 may just decide if the single currency [03:16.760 --> 03:22.260] will survive or not, with yet another summit at the end of next month amid even more bankruptcy [03:22.260 --> 03:25.560] fears for Italy and Spain. [03:25.560 --> 03:31.000] Iran says it's test-fired a new medium-range missile on Sunday. It comes during the final [03:31.000 --> 03:36.920] part of a 10-day naval drill in the Gulf, close to the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route. [03:36.920 --> 03:41.160] Tehran's threatened to close the passageway after the US placed sanctions on it because [03:41.160 --> 03:45.160] of its nuclear programme. [03:45.160 --> 03:49.960] And Iran's currency, the rial, slipped to a record low on Sunday, a day after the US [03:49.960 --> 03:55.920] imposed extra sanctions targeting its central bank and financial sector. [03:55.920 --> 04:00.540] To Syria now, and Arab League monitors appear to be in conflicts over whether it saw government [04:00.540 --> 04:05.680] snipers in Dera. In a video released by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, one of [04:05.680 --> 04:10.200] the observers there said he'd seen them with his own eyes. And yet the head of the mission [04:10.200 --> 04:19.200] later said the remark was just hypothetical and that the observer didn't see anything. [04:19.200 --> 04:23.680] In this amateur footage, snipers appear to be in position to fire from a rooftop in the [04:23.680 --> 04:29.440] city of Dera. They're thought to be loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Gunshots [04:29.440 --> 04:35.620] can be heard in the distance and close by. The footage cannot be verified, but it purports [04:35.620 --> 04:41.480] to have been filmed on Saturday during a visit to the city by Arab League observers. In another [04:41.480 --> 04:48.000] amateur video, one of the observers claims to have seen snipers himself. [04:48.000 --> 04:53.320] From the Almeria side, snipers, we saw them with our own eyes. We call on the authorities [04:53.320 --> 04:58.840] to remove them immediately and we will contact the Arab League immediately if they do not [04:58.840 --> 05:05.200] comply within 24 hours. There will be other procedures. [05:05.200 --> 05:09.880] But the head of the mission, Mustafa al-Dabi, told the BBC that the observer had pledged [05:09.880 --> 05:15.500] to take action if snipers were spotted, not that any snipers had been identified. The [05:15.500 --> 05:20.560] seeming contradiction reinforces fears of Syrian opposition figures about al-Dabi's [05:20.560 --> 05:26.740] suitability in leading a mission to investigate human rights abuses in Syria. He held security [05:26.740 --> 05:31.940] positions under Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted on international charges of [05:31.940 --> 05:37.420] committing genocide in Darfur. Protesters have criticized al-Dabi's response [05:37.420 --> 05:42.960] to the violence, which has continued despite the observer's presence. This amateur footage [05:42.960 --> 05:48.720] appears to show security forces in homes, kicking an unarmed protester, then hitting [05:48.720 --> 05:54.600] him with the butt of a gun before rounding him up, along with other young men. In Idlib, [05:54.600 --> 05:59.840] crowds gathered at a funeral. They chant their defiance of President Bashar al-Assad, saying [05:59.840 --> 06:05.560] they will bow only to God and that the president is the enemy of God. [06:05.560 --> 06:10.360] In two days' time, Americans will start voting for who they want as their Republican presidential [06:10.360 --> 06:15.280] candidate. The race kicks off in the Midwestern state of Iowa, where frontrunner Mitt Romney [06:15.280 --> 06:21.200] is trying to woo voters with his plans on immigration. [06:21.200 --> 06:26.320] Immigration has become one of the main issues in the Iowa caucus. The state's Hispanic population [06:26.320 --> 06:31.520] has almost doubled over the last decade, making up five percent of its residents, a growth [06:31.520 --> 06:36.800] concentrated in some counties and towns, where Mexicans and Central American immigrants work [06:36.800 --> 06:42.480] in meatpacking plants, factories and farms. If my country was in good shape, I wouldn't [06:42.480 --> 06:47.880] have come, but things are really tough there. But some people in this conservative state [06:47.880 --> 06:53.960] see the immigration surge as a threat at a time when jobs are scarce. The Tea Party movement [06:53.960 --> 06:59.320] opposed the DREAM Act, which would allow children brought to the U.S. illegally by their parents [06:59.320 --> 07:04.120] to earn citizenship by graduating from college or serving in the military. [07:04.120 --> 07:10.040] The people who are illegal can go back home. Then they can decide if they want to come [07:10.040 --> 07:14.680] here legally, get in line and come through and do the hard things that it takes to become [07:14.680 --> 07:18.360] an American citizen. Frontrunner Mitt Romney said he would veto [07:18.360 --> 07:23.520] the DREAM Act and take measures to stop new waves of illegal immigration at the border, [07:23.520 --> 07:29.880] a call echoed by his rivals. We will shut down and secure the border with [07:29.880 --> 07:34.720] Mexico. We will put the boots on the ground, the aviation assets in place. That border [07:34.720 --> 07:39.420] will be safe and it will be secure. In recent decades, the U.S. has experienced [07:39.420 --> 07:45.160] one of its largest waves of immigration, with an estimated 11 million undocumented aliens [07:45.160 --> 07:50.120] living in the country. And a motorcyclist has died on the first [07:50.120 --> 07:54.800] day of the Dakar Rally. Competitors from 50 countries around the world are taking part [07:54.800 --> 08:00.940] in the two-week 9,000-kilometre race that will run through Argentina, Chile and Peru. [08:00.940 --> 08:06.080] But it's just been announced that Argentinian bike rider Jorge Martinez Borrero has been [08:06.080 --> 08:11.440] killed. It was the first time he was taking part in the event. [08:11.440 --> 08:27.320] That's all we have time for. We're back in 20 minutes. [08:27.320 --> 08:32.840] Hello and welcome to a special New Year's edition of The World This Week, The World [08:32.840 --> 08:37.320] This Year, you might want to call it. I'm François Biguin. We're joined by a distinguished [08:37.320 --> 08:43.600] panel today, Christopher Dickey of Newsweek and The Daily Beast, Aude Barron, editor-in-chief [08:43.600 --> 08:49.280] of Le Plus Nouvelle Obs, which is again? Which is a participative section on the internet [08:49.280 --> 08:53.400] of Le Nouvelle Observateur, so citizens and experts can write about the news. [08:53.400 --> 08:59.440] One of the leading French newsweekly magazines. A citizen journalist website, or? [08:59.440 --> 09:01.920] Yeah, it's a website. It's a website as well. [09:01.920 --> 09:05.920] And Patrick Smith of The Africa Report, published monthly. [09:05.920 --> 09:09.760] Yep, with a brand new edition in the shops telling you all you need to know about what's [09:09.760 --> 09:11.880] going to go on in 2012. [09:11.880 --> 09:15.280] And Stephen Erlinger, power spirit chief for The New York Times. [09:15.280 --> 09:18.200] There's an edition every day. [09:18.200 --> 09:20.320] Updated several times a day. [09:20.320 --> 09:24.280] Exactly, endlessly. [09:24.280 --> 09:30.600] Last week, we saw how the Arab Spring blossoms pretty much spontaneously. Now comes the hard [09:30.600 --> 09:37.560] part. Nations like Egypt and Tunisia find themselves having to pick leaders for leaderless [09:37.560 --> 09:43.400] revolutions. Now, everywhere there's been elections, the big winners, Stephen Erlinger, [09:43.400 --> 09:44.400] have been... [09:44.400 --> 09:51.440] Well, the big winners have been the Islamists, and that's not a bad thing, frankly. But it's [09:51.440 --> 09:55.840] not necessarily a good thing, because there are lots of different kinds of Islamists, [09:55.840 --> 09:59.640] and they believe lots of different kinds of things. The Muslim Brotherhood, it seems to [09:59.640 --> 10:06.240] me, I mean, others may disagree, was the inevitable beneficiary, because it was always seen as [10:06.240 --> 10:12.040] the opposition. It was repressed by these old regimes, but it was very organized, had [10:12.040 --> 10:17.360] a lot of money, some of it from the outside. It did a lot of charity work. It was in the [10:17.360 --> 10:23.400] villages with the people. So they're recognizable. That would make sense. [10:23.400 --> 10:27.960] The big question for Egypt, for example, is what kind of deal has the army struck with [10:27.960 --> 10:33.000] the Muslim Brotherhood? Will the Muslim Brotherhood split? Blah, blah, blah, blah. I mean, this [10:33.000 --> 10:39.800] will have to see. But by itself, the general support for the Islamists makes perfect sense [10:39.800 --> 10:42.960] and should not be a great concern, I don't think. [10:42.960 --> 10:43.960] Patrick Smith? [10:43.960 --> 10:50.440] Well, it's certainly the case that the Islamists have taken over the spirit of the revolution, [10:50.440 --> 10:58.640] which appeared to be a very secular and non-theocratic spirit when it started. I think it's going [10:58.640 --> 11:04.560] to be very, very difficult to predict how it's going to pan out. I think it will. The [11:04.560 --> 11:10.120] feeling that events in Egypt may parallel those in Turkey, where you have this contest [11:10.120 --> 11:16.040] between the military and the Islamists, and somehow they find there's an accommodation, [11:16.040 --> 11:21.880] I think that could be possible. I think what's particularly striking in Egypt, certainly [11:21.880 --> 11:26.720] the first round that we've seen so far, is that the brothers who have been active in [11:26.720 --> 11:34.500] Egypt for 80 years, they got 35%, 36%, and the Salafists, the extremely conservative [11:34.500 --> 11:41.600] Islamist group, got over 20%. Egypt's going to be the only country in which groups like [11:41.600 --> 11:47.720] the Salafists have a seat in parliament. They have opted for parliamentary politics, so [11:47.720 --> 11:55.520] it's an entirely new political tactic for them to compete for votes like that. [11:55.520 --> 12:03.200] In Egypt, we saw Salafist posters where women were represented by flowers, or in at least [12:03.200 --> 12:08.560] one case, by the candidate's husband. How is this going to play out, though, in a nation [12:08.560 --> 12:12.920] that's used to 14 million Western tourists a year, Christopher? [12:12.920 --> 12:16.560] Well, it's not going to be good for tourism. I think we can say with some confidence tourism [12:16.560 --> 12:20.240] is going to suffer, is suffering, and is going to suffer in Egypt. But I think as we look [12:20.240 --> 12:27.100] forward, it's important to realize that we are at a whole new stage in Arab history because [12:27.100 --> 12:32.080] of the demographics of the Arab world, because of the connectivity of the Arab world now. [12:32.080 --> 12:35.960] I mean, when I first started going there 25 years ago, you could barely get a landline [12:35.960 --> 12:40.280] to make a telephone call. Now everybody has cell phones, everybody has satellite television, [12:40.280 --> 12:46.400] a lot of people are on the internet, and the majority of the population is under 25 years [12:46.400 --> 12:53.600] old. In Yemen, the majority is under 18. So this is a whole different dynamic going ahead, [12:53.600 --> 12:58.320] and I think the one thing that is predictable is that it's going to be completely unpredictable. [12:58.320 --> 13:04.720] I was in Tahrir Square in 2010 as Mubarak was coming down, and having lived in Egypt [13:04.720 --> 13:09.700] for six years over the years, I was surprised three or four times a day something would [13:09.700 --> 13:14.760] happen that I simply could not have imagined happening before. And I think that's going [13:14.760 --> 13:16.680] to continue. [13:16.680 --> 13:22.080] The economy is also going to be a huge issue, which I think is going to be a moderating [13:22.080 --> 13:28.360] force on whichever coalition dominates Egyptian politics. They simply have to change the way [13:28.360 --> 13:33.000] business is done, and some of the prescriptions, particularly the Salafist prescriptions, just [13:33.000 --> 13:37.520] wouldn't make sense in a modern world. And I think that's where you're going to see [13:37.520 --> 13:44.320] a huge pressure of a compromise on the brothers to make deals with perhaps some secularist [13:44.320 --> 13:48.400] forces or less religious forces simply to get the economy moving, because this is going [13:48.400 --> 13:52.080] to be the first time they're really going to be put to the test electorally. [13:52.080 --> 13:57.900] You might also see someone like Amr Moussa, who's basically a secularist becoming president [13:57.900 --> 13:58.900] of Egypt. [13:58.900 --> 14:00.240] Former head of the Arab League. [14:00.240 --> 14:05.360] Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure that's a good thing, particularly, but it again would be a moderating [14:05.360 --> 14:09.400] force, particularly for the outside world, to feel that there was somebody there that [14:09.400 --> 14:14.800] they had some idea who they were and what they thought. [14:14.800 --> 14:20.320] We're talking about the youth here, and you have, it seems, are they contradictory? On [14:20.320 --> 14:26.160] the one hand, conservative religious values, and on the other hand, this sort of generation-wide [14:26.160 --> 14:30.520] ethos of going on social networking sites, even to find soulmates. [14:30.520 --> 14:36.740] Well, when you look on the social networks and on the internet, you mainly see the youth. [14:36.740 --> 14:41.360] So you only hear, well, you hear mainly the same voice, and they want to know freedom [14:41.360 --> 14:47.840] and liberty, and they want the right for democracy. And one of the big stakes for next year is [14:47.840 --> 14:52.480] will the movement will continue on the internet, especially when you see a country like Syria, [14:52.480 --> 14:58.760] where the information is difficult to access, and some hackers really help the people to [14:58.760 --> 15:03.520] communicate and to communicate with each other and with the Western world, and we just [15:03.520 --> 15:08.240] have to hope that those hackers, well, first, they won't have any problem, and then they [15:08.240 --> 15:12.400] will continue because they've been doing this for months and months, and maybe after a while, [15:12.400 --> 15:14.620] they will get tired and they will stop. [15:14.620 --> 15:19.560] And I met one of them last week, and he was saying that at the beginning, there were thousands [15:19.560 --> 15:24.760] of them because they were very excited, and now there are only a few dozens, and maybe [15:24.760 --> 15:28.320] after, you know, month after month, the movement will decline. [15:28.320 --> 15:31.200] Do you sense revolution fatigue, Christopher Dickey? [15:31.200 --> 15:35.500] Yeah, outside, in the outside world, yes. People are like, oh, no, not another story [15:35.500 --> 15:40.000] about Arab revolutions or when Syria ever going to end. Of course, people are very cynical [15:40.000 --> 15:44.080] and they get tired very fast. I don't think there's revolution fatigue in these countries. [15:44.080 --> 15:48.440] I think there's a lot of disappointment that things haven't been delivered more quickly, [15:48.440 --> 15:52.640] but I think that just reflecting on what Patrick said, we really aren't going to see some interesting [15:52.640 --> 15:58.320] things happen as the Islamists, for instance, are given the responsibility of governing. [15:58.320 --> 16:02.600] I don't think they can do it. I think we actually are going to see, it would be a good guess [16:02.600 --> 16:06.160] that we will see the beginning of the end of the Islamic trend over the next couple [16:06.160 --> 16:10.680] of years because they're not going to be able to deliver, and we're going to have this chaotic [16:10.680 --> 16:16.480] situation and the outside world will get tired of it, but I think the fact that people, especially [16:16.480 --> 16:23.160] young people, are living in a dynamic environment now where things can change is just amazing. [16:23.160 --> 16:30.040] For decades, for two, three generations in the Arab world, nothing really changed. [16:30.040 --> 16:33.920] I want to get back to one point that Patrick was mentioning earlier, which is Turkey. Now, [16:33.920 --> 16:38.440] there's competing foreign influences tugging at one another in places like Egypt. There's [16:38.440 --> 16:43.400] the Gulf States where there's lots of conservative Muslims from Egypt who've gone to find work. [16:43.400 --> 16:47.660] There's the US, which plows a lot of aid into the country, mostly military, and then there's [16:47.660 --> 16:54.080] the growing star places like Turkey, whose prime minister got a rock star welcome when [16:54.080 --> 16:59.480] he visited Egypt a few months back. That's all the more remarkable, Patrick, that Turkey [16:59.480 --> 17:02.640] was once home to the old colonizers, the Ottoman Empire. [17:02.640 --> 17:09.640] Yeah, it's history repeating itself with a very different take. Erdogan's had a brilliant [17:09.640 --> 17:16.360] year. So has Qatar. I think those have been the internal beneficiaries of the Arab Spring, [17:16.360 --> 17:20.000] have clearly been the Islamists, and the external beneficiaries, if you like, have been Turkey [17:20.000 --> 17:25.560] and Qatar. They both moved very quickly to back the winners. Turkey's case was really [17:25.560 --> 17:30.640] interesting because Erdogan had won the Mohammed Gaddafi human rights prize a year ago, and [17:30.640 --> 17:35.780] then suddenly he discovered that Mohammed Gaddafi was a really bad guy and needed overthrowing. [17:35.780 --> 17:39.480] So what happens vis-a-vis his neighbor, Syria? [17:39.480 --> 17:44.680] Turkey's going to be one of the deceders. There's no question about that. Turkey's [17:44.680 --> 17:50.600] influence in the region, I think, has been enhanced. It's very much in keeping with [17:50.600 --> 17:57.080] the move within the Arab League. For the first time in its history, the Arab League has sanctioned [17:57.080 --> 18:03.920] a member at that level, not only supported the bombing against Gaddafi initially, but [18:03.920 --> 18:08.880] then moved against Syria, which regards itself as a cornerstone of the Arab League. And Erdogan [18:08.880 --> 18:14.320] is right up with them, and I think it's really going to enhance Turkey's status as [18:14.320 --> 18:19.140] a model also, not just as a sort of political actor, but as a model. We can have an Islamic [18:19.140 --> 18:23.560] state that produces economic growth, and I think that that's the real challenge to [18:23.560 --> 18:27.340] all the governments in the region. Is that going to be possible elsewhere? [18:27.340 --> 18:31.320] One final point on this before we move on. Stephen Erlinger, we're talking about the [18:31.320 --> 18:36.960] West's waning influence in these places. We're seeing the final pullout of U.S. troops [18:36.960 --> 18:43.000] from Iraq. We're seeing further along the start of the drawdown in Afghanistan. Are [18:43.000 --> 18:46.800] we being too hard on the United States when they do that? After all, they're rolling [18:46.800 --> 18:51.320] with the punches, as it were. Well, yeah, and also, frankly, they have [18:51.320 --> 18:57.000] a lot of interests in the Pacific, which everyone forgets, and China is a big issue, and they [18:57.000 --> 19:05.500] need to look a little harder at what China is up to, and they have friends and allies. [19:05.500 --> 19:10.740] But I think the Americans aren't going to go away. Don't mistake it. I think what's [19:10.740 --> 19:17.480] fascinating, though, is you have different models in the Arab world that have died. One [19:17.480 --> 19:23.200] was Arab nationalism, Nasserism. Then you had this military model, which they tried [19:23.200 --> 19:30.680] to turn into a sort of dynasty, and now you're going to have some kind of vaguely Islamist [19:30.680 --> 19:35.120] model. I'm not sure that's going to work any better. There's a lot of chaos and confusion [19:35.120 --> 19:40.040] and the stakes are extremely high, not just the United States, but for the King of Jordan, [19:40.040 --> 19:46.400] the King of Morocco, the Saudis. I mean, things are in play, and that means the United States [19:46.400 --> 19:50.880] is going to play a role. Turkey alone is not the answer. [19:50.880 --> 19:54.840] Well, it's amazing to watch the confusion of the United States, as a matter of fact, [19:54.840 --> 19:58.760] as it looks at this. I mean, we forget, as I pointed out in an essay that's in Issues [19:58.760 --> 20:07.800] to 2012, that dictators are very convenient. There was just one go-to guy in any country. [20:07.800 --> 20:11.480] Either he was a royal or he was a general. You went to him, things got decided, they [20:11.480 --> 20:15.480] got done or they didn't get done, but you only had to talk to one guy. Who do you talk [20:15.480 --> 20:19.960] to now in Egypt? The Americans still act as if you can just talk to the military, but [20:19.960 --> 20:25.640] you can't. They literally do not know who to talk to now. And that is a scary position [20:25.640 --> 20:29.760] if you are the Secretary of State or the President of the United States and you're looking at [20:29.760 --> 20:34.760] one of your most important allies in one of the most volatile regions in the world. But [20:34.760 --> 20:37.720] that's the way it is. It is what it is at this point. [20:37.720 --> 20:41.640] Who do you talk to in those countries? Who do you talk to back in the United States? [20:41.640 --> 20:47.120] An election year is beginning in a nation more than ever polarized between right and [20:47.120 --> 20:55.120] left and where we've seen suspicions of those in the high halls of power take on new forms. [20:55.120 --> 20:59.600] If the start of the year began with everybody here in France trying to understand what le [20:59.600 --> 21:06.200] Tea Party, the Tea Party is, now comes Occupy Wall Street and its affiliated franchises [21:06.200 --> 21:10.120] in several cities. Christopher Dickey, for our viewers who are not in the United States, [21:10.120 --> 21:12.120] is this just college kids? What's going on here? [21:12.120 --> 21:17.160] No, no. It's a much bigger cross-section of the population. It is in its way, Occupy [21:17.160 --> 21:21.600] Wall Street is the left-wing equivalent of the Tea Party on the right. It's an expression [21:21.600 --> 21:27.560] of fear and anger and a desire to see something change, although in both cases it isn't really [21:27.560 --> 21:31.120] clear what people want to change. [21:31.120 --> 21:34.120] What's clear is they know what they don't want. [21:34.120 --> 21:36.160] They know what they don't like and don't want, absolutely. [21:36.160 --> 21:39.840] That's first a good point. And what's very interesting about this movement is how it [21:39.840 --> 21:44.360] spread all around the world because you had on the one side the Indignates in Spain and [21:44.360 --> 21:49.160] on the other side you had Occupy Wall Street. And all the movements, you know, they just [21:49.160 --> 21:55.920] merged together and you had all those demonstrations all around the world. When a movement has [21:55.920 --> 22:02.600] success or not, and when you observe in the U.S., Occupy Wall Street is still very active, [22:02.600 --> 22:07.400] whereas when you look at in Europe, you know, the movement, well, there are some movements, [22:07.400 --> 22:11.040] there are a few demonstrations, but they don't have the media behind them. And that's one [22:11.040 --> 22:18.160] of their weaknesses. And in the U.S. the media came because of the movement to express the [22:18.160 --> 22:21.840] reason of the movement. And then they came back because you had some movie stars, some [22:21.840 --> 22:27.080] actors, some singers who came. So the media came for the people aspect of the movement [22:27.080 --> 22:30.720] where in Europe, the stars don't want to be involved. [22:30.720 --> 22:35.880] Patrick Smith, I've heard it said that in the case in the U.K. with the Occupy St. Paul's [22:35.880 --> 22:41.600] I believe it was, people became quickly disenchanted when they started to organize stuff a little [22:41.600 --> 22:43.280] too much. [22:43.280 --> 22:49.040] I think one of the points is, as everyone says, we know what we don't want. That's the sort [22:49.040 --> 22:54.360] of clarion call. But they also set up a tent with a library in it. And a friend of mine [22:54.360 --> 22:58.960] said any movement that sets up a tent with a library in it to find out what we do want, [22:58.960 --> 23:04.520] you know, is going to get his backing. I can see the point. I think it's more diffuse now. [23:04.520 --> 23:11.280] And they had this confrontation with the religious authorities in London. And in fact, you know, [23:11.280 --> 23:14.840] one of the clerics had to resign as a result of this. [23:14.840 --> 23:20.840] So I think popular support is still quite high because it does ring all the right bells. [23:20.840 --> 23:26.720] They can skepticism about politicians, their hypocrisy, their corruption, skepticism about [23:26.720 --> 23:32.360] the bankers who have caused this crisis. We've talked about youth unemployment. It's all [23:32.360 --> 23:37.840] put in the bag. The problem is it's all too simplistic. And there isn't now a counter [23:37.840 --> 23:43.520] movement to say what we do want. But it's just the mantra is change. And that worked [23:43.520 --> 23:45.840] pretty well for Obama, I think, in 2008. [23:45.840 --> 23:51.160] Right. So there's this diffuse anger. Does it help or hurt Barack Obama as he bids for [23:51.160 --> 23:53.360] reelection? [23:53.360 --> 23:57.640] I don't think it actually hurts him terribly. I'm not sure how much it helps him. I mean, [23:57.640 --> 24:06.600] I think what you have is a generalized response to fear, to economic fear. I mean, fear that, [24:06.600 --> 24:12.720] you know, the credit crisis is going to get worse. We see it. Unemployment is getting [24:12.720 --> 24:19.120] worse. It's beginning to pick up a bit in the United States, unlike in Europe. American [24:19.120 --> 24:26.240] stimulus is finally kicking in. I mean, American presidents try to time these things properly. [24:26.240 --> 24:31.560] We'll see if Obama times it right. But the economy will define whether he's reelected [24:31.560 --> 24:36.280] as much as the Republican candidate will. I mean, it now looks on the Republican side [24:36.280 --> 24:43.440] that you're not going to get a Tea Party candidate. You'll probably get Romney or get Gingrich. [24:43.440 --> 24:48.960] I think probably at this point, Romney is more of a danger to Obama than Gingrich. But [24:48.960 --> 24:55.480] it's early. It's hard to know. But I think Obama is very vulnerable because the magic [24:55.480 --> 25:02.360] is gone. People are upset. They think he's smart, but they don't think he's been very [25:02.360 --> 25:03.360] effective. [25:03.360 --> 25:09.480] Christopher Dickey, is there the fear that people won't turn out to vote for Barack Obama? [25:09.480 --> 25:13.960] I'm sure that they're not going to turn out the way they did last time around. I mean, [25:13.960 --> 25:18.360] when Steve says the magic is gone, he puts his finger exactly on the problem that Obama [25:18.360 --> 25:23.320] has, not just that the economy is difficult, but he was able to mobilize people who normally [25:23.320 --> 25:28.000] don't go out and vote. And they would get on Facebook. They would use all the social [25:28.000 --> 25:35.600] media. And what's really interesting is that his campaign was designed so that you would [25:35.600 --> 25:40.500] get on these social media, and then you would be directed to take concrete actions. These [25:40.500 --> 25:45.080] are the addresses of doors you should knock on in your neighborhood. This is the amount [25:45.080 --> 25:50.040] of money you should raise. It was an incredible machine getting him elected. I don't think [25:50.040 --> 25:52.160] it's going to work nearly as well this time around. [25:52.160 --> 25:57.800] How he reinvents himself and what his opponent does. [25:57.800 --> 26:02.880] We'll pick up on that point when we return for this New Year's edition of The World This [26:02.880 --> 26:32.840] Week. [28:02.880 --> 28:32.040] Capital cities around the world have been celebrating the start of 2012 in style. From [28:32.040 --> 28:39.880] London to New York to right here in Paris. We've got all the party pictures for you. [28:39.880 --> 28:44.200] It's a happy 10th birthday to the Euro, but with the debt crisis rocking the Eurozone [28:44.200 --> 28:51.680] to its core, plus the threat of recession, many say there's little to celebrate. And [28:51.680 --> 28:57.160] the head of the Senate in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been attacked here in Paris. [28:57.160 --> 29:03.400] He's been hospitalized after being sat upon at the train station Gare du Nord. [29:03.400 --> 29:08.000] So those are the latest headlines. Welcome to France by Cats. I'm Louise Hanna. Millions [29:08.000 --> 29:12.600] of people around the world have been welcoming in the New Year with fireworks, parties, and [29:12.600 --> 29:19.600] even a few celebrities. In New York, pop diva Lady Gaga and Michael Bloomberg hit the switch [29:19.600 --> 29:25.080] sending the city's famous crystal ball on its countdown drop. London paid homage to [29:25.080 --> 29:30.000] the 2012 Olympics that it will host, kicking off its fireworks display with a recording [29:30.000 --> 29:35.160] of the moment it learned it would host the games. While here in Paris, revelers popped [29:35.160 --> 29:40.400] champagne corks at midnight along the famed Champs-Élysées or got themselves to a rooftop [29:40.400 --> 29:47.960] where they could see the Eiffel Tower shimmer in pink, gold, and white. [29:47.960 --> 29:53.120] In other world news, the government of Democratic Republic of Congo has accused opposition supporters [29:53.120 --> 29:59.160] of attacking the president of the Senate in Paris on Saturday night. Leon Congo-Wadondo [29:59.160 --> 30:25.520] was sat upon at the