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Detected language: English
[00:00.000 --> 00:05.840]  Earlier we spoke to Lambert Mende, Information Minister for the Democratic Republic of Congo.
[00:05.840 --> 00:10.800]  I asked him why he believes that it's opposition leader Etienne Cicchetti supporters who are
[00:10.800 --> 00:18.800]  behind the attack. We know that these guys are organized in the gang in Paris, which is not
[00:18.800 --> 00:25.760]  the first aggression they are perpetrating there. They have already attacked two officers of our
[00:25.760 --> 00:34.080]  police who were in Paris for treatment. They have attacked a lot of officials, ministers,
[00:34.080 --> 00:41.440]  and even musicians, artists going in Paris. They have attacked twice the embassy of Congo in Paris,
[00:41.440 --> 00:48.960]  and sometimes they have been arrested and taken in in the office of the police for being ratified
[00:48.960 --> 00:57.280]  and interrogated, but immediately released. So this move of our partners in Paris should have been
[00:57.280 --> 01:03.680]  sounding us an encouragement for them, though we are not interested in landing in controversy
[01:03.680 --> 01:10.000]  with our friends in Paris. We hope that something can be done to stop this gang.
[01:10.000 --> 01:17.520]  We are well-datified. Those are followers of Mr. Cicchetti in alliance with some people who
[01:17.520 --> 01:21.920]  were working with the late Mobutu like Mr. Nbanda. We know them very well.
[01:22.960 --> 01:26.240]  Well, we should just add there that there haven't been any arrests of opposition
[01:26.240 --> 01:30.480]  supporter Etienne Cicchetti's supporters in relation to that attack.
[01:32.560 --> 01:37.200]  In other news, it's a happy birthday to the euro this Sunday as it celebrates 10 years since its
[01:37.200 --> 01:42.640]  creation, but for some there's little to toast as Europe continues to try and fight the eurozone
[01:42.640 --> 01:48.720]  debt crisis and the rest of the world waits with bated breath to see how it'll impact on their economies.
[01:51.600 --> 01:57.200]  2002 and enthusiasm over Europe's newly founded single currency was running high.
[01:58.240 --> 02:03.680]  Ten years later, and the situation couldn't be more different. The debt crisis has rocked the
[02:03.680 --> 02:08.960]  continent, leaving European leaders struggling to prevent the eurozone's fragmentation.
[02:08.960 --> 02:13.440]  Some have blamed the design flow in the euro's implementation.
[02:13.440 --> 02:18.240]  Obviously, we only had the monetary side. We didn't have the budgetary or fiscal aspects,
[02:18.240 --> 02:22.560]  and we didn't have the politics to go with it. People who put their money together should also
[02:22.560 --> 02:27.280]  put political decisions about that money together too. I think that's what's behind the thinking
[02:27.280 --> 02:33.840]  when people say the euro was half-baked. Eurozone states have run up massive debts.
[02:33.840 --> 02:39.120]  It's meant to rise in Euroscepticism, and some believe the worst could still be yet to come.
[02:39.920 --> 02:46.560]  I don't think Europe has hit bottom yet because no bank has gone bankrupt, and
[02:47.920 --> 02:53.280]  not even Greece has declared bankruptcy. However, investors have found the political
[02:53.280 --> 02:59.680]  response to the debt crisis muddled at best. 16 summits in two years have done little to help.
[02:59.680 --> 03:04.880]  They said we agree where there was no agreement, and they said there was a solution where there
[03:04.880 --> 03:13.120]  was none. Little by little, they've lost credibility. If 2011 has been a bad year for the euro,
[03:13.120 --> 03:18.400]  it seems 2012 may just decide if the single currency will survive or not.
[03:18.400 --> 03:24.000]  With yet another summit at the end of next month, amid even more bankruptcy fears for Italy and Spain.
[03:24.000 --> 03:30.960]  Iran says it's test-fired a new medium-range missile on Sunday. It comes during the final
[03:30.960 --> 03:36.720]  part of a 10-day naval drill in the Gulf, close to the Strait of Omer, a key oil route.
[03:36.720 --> 03:40.720]  Tehran's threatened to close the passageway after the U.S. placed sanctions on it
[03:40.720 --> 03:42.400]  because of its nuclear program.
[03:44.800 --> 03:49.840]  And Iran's currency, the real, slipped to a record low on Sunday, a day after the U.S.
[03:49.840 --> 03:54.080]  imposed extra sanctions targeting its central bank and financial sector.
[03:55.680 --> 04:00.480]  To Syria now, an Arab League monitors appear to be in conflict over whether it saw government
[04:00.480 --> 04:05.280]  snipers in Derra. In a video released by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights,
[04:05.280 --> 04:08.960]  one of the observers there said he'd seen them with his own eyes.
[04:08.960 --> 04:12.640]  And yet the head of the mission later said the remark was just hypothetical
[04:12.640 --> 04:14.880]  and that the observer didn't see anything.
[04:14.880 --> 04:23.520]  In this amateur footage, snipers appear to be in position to fire from a rooftop in
[04:23.520 --> 04:28.160]  the city of Derra. They're thought to be loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
[04:28.800 --> 04:32.080]  Gunshots can be heard in the distance and close by.
[04:32.960 --> 04:37.600]  The footage cannot be verified, but it purports to have been filmed on Saturday
[04:37.600 --> 04:40.880]  during a visit to the city by Arab League observers.
[04:40.880 --> 04:45.440]  In another amateur video, one of the observers claims to have seen snipers himself.
[04:47.760 --> 04:52.080]  From the al-Miriya side, snipers, we saw them with our own eyes.
[04:52.080 --> 04:55.200]  We call on the authorities to remove them immediately,
[04:55.200 --> 04:58.080]  and we will contact the Arab League immediately.
[04:58.080 --> 05:02.080]  If they do not comply within 24 hours, there will be other procedures.
[05:04.960 --> 05:09.920]  But the head of the mission, Mustafa al-Dabi, told the BBC that the observer had pledged to
[05:09.920 --> 05:15.280]  take action if snipers were spotted, not that any snipers had been identified.
[05:15.280 --> 05:20.560]  The seeming contradiction reinforces fears of Syrian opposition figures about al-Dabi's
[05:20.560 --> 05:25.120]  suitability in leading a mission to investigate human rights abuses in Syria.
[05:25.680 --> 05:29.760]  He held security positions under Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir,
[05:29.760 --> 05:33.920]  who is wanted on international charges of committing genocide in Darfur.
[05:34.800 --> 05:38.320]  Protesters have criticised al-Dabi's response to the violence,
[05:38.320 --> 05:40.880]  which has continued despite the observers' presence.
[05:41.760 --> 05:48.080]  This amateur footage appears to show security forces in homes, kicking an unarmed protester,
[05:48.080 --> 05:52.880]  then hitting him with the butt of a gun before rounding him up, along with other young men.
[05:53.600 --> 05:56.240]  In Idlib, crowds gathered at a funeral.
[05:56.240 --> 05:59.520]  They chant their defiance of President Bashar al-Assad,
[05:59.520 --> 06:03.920]  saying they will bow only to God and that the president is the enemy of God.
[06:03.920 --> 06:09.600]  In two days' time, Americans will start voting for who they want as their Republican
[06:09.600 --> 06:13.840]  or presidential candidate. The race kicks off in the Midwestern state of Iowa,
[06:13.840 --> 06:17.920]  where front-runner Mitt Romney is trying to woo voters with his plans on immigration.
[06:20.560 --> 06:23.920]  Immigration has become one of the main issues in the Iowa caucus.
[06:24.560 --> 06:28.480]  The state's Hispanic population has almost doubled over the last decade,
[06:28.480 --> 06:33.840]  making up 5 percent of its residents. A growth concentrated in some counties and towns,
[06:33.840 --> 06:39.280]  where Mexicans and Central American immigrants work in meatpacking plants, factories and farms.
[06:40.560 --> 06:44.160]  If my country was in good shape, I wouldn't have come, but things are really tough there.
[06:45.520 --> 06:50.000]  But some people in this conservative state see the immigration surge as a threat
[06:50.000 --> 06:55.520]  at a time when jobs are scarce. The Tea Party movement opposed the DREAM Act,
[06:55.520 --> 06:59.200]  which would allow children brought to the U.S. illegally by their parents
[06:59.200 --> 07:03.680]  to earn citizenship by graduating from college or serving in the military.
[07:03.680 --> 07:07.360]  And then the people who are illegal can go back home.
[07:08.400 --> 07:11.680]  Then they can decide if they want to come here legally, get in line,
[07:11.680 --> 07:15.520]  and come through and do the hard things that it takes to become an American citizen.
[07:16.080 --> 07:19.360]  Front-runner Mitt Romney said he would veto the DREAM Act
[07:19.360 --> 07:23.360]  and take measures to stop new waves of illegal immigration at the border,
[07:23.360 --> 07:30.320]  a call echoed by his rivals. We will shut down and secure the border with Mexico.
[07:30.320 --> 07:34.000]  We will put the boots on the ground, the aviation assets in place.
[07:34.000 --> 07:36.720]  That border will be safe and it will be secure.
[07:36.720 --> 07:41.680]  In recent decades, the U.S. has experienced one of its largest waves of immigration,
[07:41.680 --> 07:46.000]  with an estimated 11 million undocumented aliens living in the country.
[07:47.760 --> 07:51.680]  And a motorcyclist has died on the first day of the Dakar rally,
[07:51.680 --> 07:55.760]  competitors from 50 countries around the world are taking part in the two-week
[07:55.760 --> 08:00.640]  9,000-kilometer race that will run through Argentina, Chile, and Peru.
[08:00.640 --> 08:03.920]  But it's just been announced that Argentinian bike rider,
[08:03.920 --> 08:06.800]  Jorge Matinez Borreiro, has been killed.
[08:06.800 --> 08:09.200]  It was the first time he was taking part in the event.
[08:09.200 --> 08:20.640]  That's all we have time for. We're back in 20 minutes.
[08:27.040 --> 08:32.400]  Hello and welcome to a special New Year's edition of The World This Week,
[08:32.400 --> 08:34.240]  The World This Year, you might want to call it.
[08:34.880 --> 08:38.160]  I'm Paul Sobigal and we're joined by a distinguished panel today,
[08:38.160 --> 08:40.400]  Christopher Dickey of Newsweek and The Daily Beast,
[08:41.040 --> 08:46.560]  Aud Barron, editor-in-chief of Le Plus Nouvelle Apps, which is again...
[08:46.560 --> 08:50.480]  Which is a participative section on the Internet of the Nouvelle Observateur,
[08:50.480 --> 08:53.360]  so citizens and experts can write about using news.
[08:53.360 --> 08:56.160]  All right, one of the leading French news weekly magazines,
[08:57.120 --> 08:59.680]  Citizen Journalist website or...
[08:59.680 --> 09:00.480]  Yeah, it's a website.
[09:00.480 --> 09:01.600]  It's a website as well.
[09:01.600 --> 09:05.920]  And Patrick Smith of the Africa Report, published monthly.
[09:05.920 --> 09:08.160]  Yep. With a brand new edition in the shops,
[09:08.160 --> 09:11.120]  telling you all you need to know about what's going to go on in 2012.
[09:12.400 --> 09:14.960]  Stephen Erlinger, Paris Bureau Chief for The New York Times.
[09:14.960 --> 09:16.560]  There's an edition every day.
[09:18.000 --> 09:19.360]  Updated several times today.
[09:19.360 --> 09:20.720]  Exactly, endlessly.
[09:22.000 --> 09:22.960]  We approved Newsweek.
[09:23.840 --> 09:29.200]  Last week, we saw how the Arab Spring blossoms pretty much spontaneously.
[09:29.200 --> 09:31.040]  Now comes the hard part.
[09:31.040 --> 09:34.000]  Nations like Egypt and Tunisia find themselves
[09:34.000 --> 09:38.640]  having to pick leaders for leaderless revolutions.
[09:38.640 --> 09:41.120]  Now everywhere, there's been elections.
[09:41.120 --> 09:43.680]  The big winners, Stephen Erlinger, have been...
[09:45.360 --> 09:47.920]  Well, the big winners have been the Islamists,
[09:47.920 --> 09:50.240]  and that's not a bad thing, frankly.
[09:51.040 --> 09:52.720]  But it's not necessarily a good thing,
[09:52.720 --> 09:55.440]  because there are lots of different kinds of Islamists,
[09:55.440 --> 09:58.080]  and they believe lots of different kinds of things.
[09:58.080 --> 09:59.840]  The Muslim Brotherhood, it seems to me,
[09:59.840 --> 10:04.880]  I mean, others may disagree with the inevitable beneficiary,
[10:04.880 --> 10:07.440]  because it was always seen as the opposition.
[10:07.440 --> 10:09.840]  It was repressed by these old regimes,
[10:09.840 --> 10:11.760]  but it was very organized.
[10:11.760 --> 10:14.320]  Had a lot of money, some of it from the outside.
[10:14.320 --> 10:15.760]  It did a lot of charity work.
[10:15.760 --> 10:18.880]  It was in the villages with the people.
[10:19.440 --> 10:21.440]  So they're recognizable.
[10:21.440 --> 10:23.120]  That would make sense.
[10:23.120 --> 10:25.120]  The big question for Egypt, for example,
[10:25.120 --> 10:29.280]  is what kind of deal has the army struck with the Muslim Brotherhood?
[10:29.280 --> 10:31.760]  Will the Muslim Brotherhood split, blah, blah, blah?
[10:31.760 --> 10:33.520]  I mean, this will have to see.
[10:33.520 --> 10:38.720]  But by itself, you know, the general support for the Islamists
[10:38.720 --> 10:42.720]  makes perfect sense and should not be a great concern, I don't think.
[10:42.720 --> 10:43.360]  Patrick Smith?
[10:44.080 --> 10:48.480]  Well, it's certainly the case that the Islamists have taken over
[10:48.480 --> 10:50.240]  the spirit of the revolution,
[10:50.240 --> 10:55.360]  which appeared to be a very secular and non-theocratic spirit
[10:55.360 --> 10:56.560]  when it started.
[10:56.560 --> 11:00.400]  I think it's going to be very, very difficult to predict
[11:00.400 --> 11:01.520]  how it's going to pan out.
[11:01.520 --> 11:02.800]  I think it will...
[11:02.800 --> 11:07.520]  The feeling that events in Egypt may parallel those in Turkey
[11:07.520 --> 11:11.920]  where you have this contest between the military and the Islamists,
[11:11.920 --> 11:15.360]  and somehow they find there's an accommodation.
[11:15.360 --> 11:17.520]  I think that could be possible.
[11:17.520 --> 11:20.080]  I think what's particularly striking in Egypt,
[11:20.080 --> 11:23.120]  and certainly the first round that we've seen so far,
[11:23.120 --> 11:27.120]  is that the brothers who have been active in Egypt for 80 years,
[11:27.120 --> 11:30.320]  they got 35, 36 percent,
[11:30.320 --> 11:34.640]  and the Salafists, the extremely conservative Islamist group,
[11:34.640 --> 11:36.480]  got over 20 percent.
[11:37.760 --> 11:40.640]  This is...Egypt's going to be the only country in which groups
[11:40.640 --> 11:43.600]  like the Salafists have a seat in parliament.
[11:43.600 --> 11:46.640]  They have opted for parliamentary politics.
[11:46.640 --> 11:50.080]  So it's an entirely new political tactic for them
[11:50.080 --> 11:52.400]  to compete for votes like.
[11:52.400 --> 11:57.360]  In Egypt, we saw Salafists' posters
[11:57.360 --> 12:01.120]  where women were represented by flowers,
[12:01.120 --> 12:03.920]  or in at least one case, by the candidate's husband.
[12:04.960 --> 12:06.480]  How is this going to play out, though,
[12:06.480 --> 12:11.360]  in a nation that's used to 14 million Western tourists a year, Christopher?
[12:11.360 --> 12:13.120]  Well, it's not going to be good for tourism.
[12:13.120 --> 12:15.760]  I think we can say with some confidence tourism is going to suffer,
[12:15.760 --> 12:17.760]  is suffering, and is going to suffer in Egypt.
[12:17.760 --> 12:19.600]  But I think as we look forward,
[12:19.600 --> 12:24.800]  it's important to realize that we are at a whole new stage in Arab history.
[12:24.800 --> 12:26.960]  Because of the demographics of the Arab world,
[12:26.960 --> 12:30.320]  because of the connectivity of the Arab world now.
[12:30.320 --> 12:32.720]  When I first started going there 25 years ago,
[12:32.720 --> 12:35.440]  you could barely get a landline to make a telephone call.
[12:35.440 --> 12:36.880]  Now, everybody has cell phones,
[12:36.880 --> 12:38.720]  everybody has satellite television,
[12:38.720 --> 12:40.320]  a lot of people are on the Internet,
[12:40.320 --> 12:44.960]  and the majority of the population is under 25 years old.
[12:44.960 --> 12:48.000]  A lot in Yemen, the majority is under 18.
[12:48.000 --> 12:51.360]  So, this is a whole different dynamic going ahead.
[12:51.360 --> 12:53.680]  And I think the one thing that is predictable
[12:53.680 --> 12:56.240]  is that it's going to be completely unpredictable.
[12:56.240 --> 12:59.920]  I was in Tahrir Square in 2010,
[12:59.920 --> 13:01.760]  as Mubarak was coming down,
[13:01.760 --> 13:04.720]  and having lived in Egypt for six years, over the years,
[13:04.720 --> 13:07.040]  I was surprised three or four times a day,
[13:07.040 --> 13:11.840]  something would happen that I simply could not have imagined happening before.
[13:11.840 --> 13:13.680]  And I think that's going to continue.
[13:13.680 --> 13:16.880]  The economy, I mean, those are going to be very different.
[13:16.880 --> 13:19.120]  The economy, I mean, it's also going to be a huge issue.
[13:19.120 --> 13:22.640]  I mean, how, which I think is going to be a moderating force
[13:22.640 --> 13:26.880]  on whichever coalition dominates Egyptian politics.
[13:26.880 --> 13:29.920]  They simply have to change the way business is done.
[13:29.920 --> 13:31.280]  And some of the prescriptions,
[13:31.280 --> 13:32.960]  particularly the Salafi prescriptions,
[13:32.960 --> 13:36.560]  just wouldn't make sense in a modern world.
[13:36.560 --> 13:37.840]  And I think that's where you're going to see
[13:37.840 --> 13:41.680]  a huge pressure for compromise on the brothers,
[13:41.680 --> 13:45.040]  to make deals with perhaps some secularist forces
[13:45.040 --> 13:47.600]  religious forces simply to get the economy moving,
[13:47.600 --> 13:49.280]  because this is going to be the first time
[13:49.280 --> 13:52.400]  that they're really going to be put to the test electorally.
[13:52.400 --> 13:54.960]  You might also see someone like Amr Moussa,
[13:54.960 --> 13:58.400]  who's basically a secularist becoming president of Egypt.
[13:58.400 --> 13:59.040]  I mean...
[13:59.040 --> 14:00.160]  Former head of the Arab League.
[14:00.160 --> 14:02.560]  Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure that's a good thing particularly,
[14:02.560 --> 14:05.360]  but it again would be a moderating force,
[14:05.360 --> 14:07.600]  particularly for the outside world,
[14:07.600 --> 14:09.120]  to feel that there was somebody there,
[14:09.120 --> 14:13.360]  that they had some idea who they were and what they thought.
[14:13.360 --> 14:16.160]  We're talking about the youth here.
[14:16.160 --> 14:17.760]  And you have, it seems...
[14:17.760 --> 14:18.960]  Are they contradictory?
[14:18.960 --> 14:22.080]  On the one hand, conservative religious values.
[14:22.080 --> 14:25.760]  And on the other hand, this sort of generation-wide ethos
[14:25.760 --> 14:29.360]  of going on social networking sites, even to find soulmates.
[14:29.360 --> 14:31.280]  Well, when you look on the social networks
[14:31.280 --> 14:35.360]  and on the internet, you mainly see the youth.
[14:35.360 --> 14:38.720]  So you only hear, well, you hear mainly the same voice.
[14:38.720 --> 14:41.120]  And they want to know freedom and liberty,
[14:41.120 --> 14:43.520]  and they want the right for democracy.
[14:43.520 --> 14:46.720]  And one of the big stakes for next year is,
[14:46.720 --> 14:49.120]  will the movement will continue on the internet?
[14:49.120 --> 14:51.360]  And especially when you see a country like Syria,
[14:51.360 --> 14:55.360]  where the information is difficult to access.
[14:55.360 --> 14:58.720]  And some hackers really help the people to communicate.
[14:58.720 --> 15:02.080]  And to communicate with each other and with the Western world.
[15:02.080 --> 15:04.240]  And we just have to hope that those hackers,
[15:04.240 --> 15:06.480]  well, first they won't have any problem, you know?
[15:06.480 --> 15:07.920]  And then they will continue,
[15:07.920 --> 15:09.920]  because they've been doing this for months and months
[15:09.920 --> 15:13.520]  and maybe after a while they will get tired and they will stop.
[15:13.520 --> 15:16.720]  And I met one of them last week, and he was saying that,
[15:16.720 --> 15:18.720]  you know, at the beginning there were thousands,
[15:18.720 --> 15:20.320]  because they were very excited.
[15:20.320 --> 15:23.120]  And now there are only a few dozens,
[15:23.120 --> 15:25.920]  and maybe after, you know, months after months,
[15:25.920 --> 15:27.520]  the movement will decline.
[15:27.520 --> 15:30.320]  Do you sense revolution fatigue, prosperity?
[15:30.320 --> 15:32.720]  Yeah, outside, in the outside world, yes.
[15:32.720 --> 15:34.720]  People are like, oh, no, not another story
[15:34.720 --> 15:37.920]  about Arab revolutions or when Syria ever going to end.
[15:37.920 --> 15:40.720]  Of course, people are very cynical and they get tired very fast.
[15:40.720 --> 15:43.520]  I don't think there's revolution fatigue in these countries.
[15:43.520 --> 15:45.120]  I think there's a lot of disappointment
[15:45.120 --> 15:47.520]  that things haven't been delivered more quickly.
[15:47.520 --> 15:50.720]  But I think that just reflecting on what Patrick said,
[15:50.720 --> 15:52.720]  we really aren't going to see some interesting things happen
[15:52.720 --> 15:54.720]  as the Islamists, for instance,
[15:54.720 --> 15:57.520]  are given the responsibility of governing.
[15:57.520 --> 15:59.120]  I don't think they can do it.
[15:59.120 --> 16:02.120]  I think we actually are going to see it would be a good guess
[16:02.120 --> 16:04.720]  that we will see the beginning of the end of the Islamic trend
[16:04.720 --> 16:06.320]  over the next couple of years,
[16:06.320 --> 16:08.720]  because they're not going to be able to deliver.
[16:08.720 --> 16:10.720]  And we're going to have this chaotic situation,
[16:10.720 --> 16:13.520]  and the outside world will get tired of it.
[16:13.520 --> 16:16.520]  But I think the fact that people, especially young people,
[16:16.520 --> 16:18.720]  are living in a dynamic environment now
[16:18.720 --> 16:22.120]  where things can change is just amazing.
[16:22.120 --> 16:26.720]  I mean, for decades, for two, three generations in the Arab world,
[16:26.720 --> 16:29.320]  nothing really changed.
[16:29.320 --> 16:32.120]  I want to get back to one point that Patrick was mentioning earlier,
[16:32.120 --> 16:33.120]  which is Turkey.
[16:33.120 --> 16:36.720]  Now, there's competing foreign influences tugging at one another
[16:36.720 --> 16:37.920]  in places like Egypt.
[16:37.920 --> 16:40.720]  There's the Gulf States, where there's lots of conservative
[16:40.720 --> 16:42.720]  Muslims from Egypt who've gone to find work.
[16:42.720 --> 16:45.320]  There's the U.S., which plows a lot of aid into the country,
[16:45.320 --> 16:46.720]  mostly military.
[16:46.720 --> 16:50.720]  And then there's the growing star of places like Turkey,
[16:50.720 --> 16:53.520]  whose prime minister got a rock star welcome
[16:53.520 --> 16:56.720]  when he visited Egypt a few months back.
[16:56.720 --> 16:58.520]  That's all the more remarkable, Patrick,
[16:58.520 --> 17:01.120]  that Turkey was once home to the old colonizers,
[17:01.120 --> 17:02.120]  the Ottoman Empire.
[17:02.120 --> 17:05.120]  Yeah, it's history repeating itself
[17:05.120 --> 17:08.120]  with a very different take.
[17:08.120 --> 17:10.120]  Erdogan's had a brilliant year.
[17:10.120 --> 17:11.120]  So has Qatar.
[17:11.120 --> 17:14.120]  I think those have been the internal beneficiaries
[17:14.120 --> 17:17.120]  of the Arab Spring have clearly been the Islamists
[17:17.120 --> 17:19.120]  and the external beneficiaries, if you like,
[17:19.120 --> 17:21.120]  have been Turkey and Qatar.
[17:21.120 --> 17:24.120]  They both moved very quickly to back the winners.
[17:24.120 --> 17:27.120]  Turkey's case was really interesting because Erdogan had won
[17:27.120 --> 17:30.120]  the Muammar Gaddafi Human Rights Prize a year ago,
[17:30.120 --> 17:33.120]  and then suddenly he discovered that Muammar Gaddafi
[17:33.120 --> 17:35.120]  was a really bad guy and needed overthrowing.
[17:35.120 --> 17:38.120]  So what happens vis-à-vis his neighbour, Syria?
[17:38.120 --> 17:41.120]  He's going to be one of the deciders.
[17:41.120 --> 17:43.120]  There's no question about that.
[17:43.120 --> 17:48.120]  Turkey's influence in the region, I think, has been enhanced.
[17:48.120 --> 17:53.120]  It's very much in keeping with the move within the Arab League.
[17:53.120 --> 17:55.120]  I mean, for the first time in its history,
[17:55.120 --> 17:58.120]  the Arab League has sanctioned a member at that level,
[17:58.120 --> 18:03.120]  not only supported the bombing against Gaddafi initially,
[18:03.120 --> 18:05.120]  but then moved against Syria,
[18:05.120 --> 18:08.120]  which regards itself as a cornerstone of the Arab League.
[18:08.120 --> 18:10.120]  And Erdogan is right up with them,
[18:10.120 --> 18:13.120]  and I think it's really going to enhance Turkey's status
[18:13.120 --> 18:16.120]  as a model also, not just as a sort of political actor,
[18:16.120 --> 18:19.120]  but as a model we can have in Islamic State
[18:19.120 --> 18:21.120]  that produces economic growth,
[18:21.120 --> 18:23.120]  and I think that's the real challenge
[18:23.120 --> 18:25.120]  to all the governments in the region.
[18:25.120 --> 18:27.120]  Is that going to be possible elsewhere?
[18:27.120 --> 18:30.120]  One final point on this before we move on to Stephen Erlinger.
[18:30.120 --> 18:34.120]  We'll talk about the West's waning influence in these places.
[18:34.120 --> 18:38.120]  We're seeing the final pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq.
[18:38.120 --> 18:42.120]  We're seeing further along the start of the drawdown in Afghanistan.
[18:42.120 --> 18:46.120]  Are we being too hard on the United States when they do that?
[18:46.120 --> 18:48.120]  After all, they're rolling with the punches, as it were.
[18:48.120 --> 18:50.120]  Well, yeah, and also, frankly,
[18:50.120 --> 18:53.120]  they have a lot of interest in the Pacific,
[18:53.120 --> 18:56.120]  which everyone forgets, and China is a big issue,
[18:56.120 --> 19:02.120]  and they need to look a little harder at what China is up to,
[19:02.120 --> 19:05.120]  and they have friends and allies.
[19:05.120 --> 19:08.120]  But I think the Americans aren't going to go away.
[19:08.120 --> 19:10.120]  Don't mistake it.
[19:10.120 --> 19:12.120]  I think what's fascinating, though,
[19:12.120 --> 19:17.120]  is you have different models in the Arab world that have died.
[19:17.120 --> 19:20.120]  One was Arab nationalism, Nasserism.
[19:20.120 --> 19:22.120]  Then you had this military model,
[19:22.120 --> 19:26.120]  which they tried to turn into a sort of dynasty,
[19:26.120 --> 19:31.120]  and now you're going to have some kind of vaguely Islamist model.
[19:31.120 --> 19:33.120]  I'm not sure that's going to work any better.
[19:33.120 --> 19:35.120]  There's a lot of chaos and confusion.
[19:35.120 --> 19:38.120]  The stakes are extremely high, not just for the United States,
[19:38.120 --> 19:42.120]  but for the King of Jordan, the King of Morocco, the Saudis.
[19:42.120 --> 19:44.120]  I mean, things are in play,
[19:44.120 --> 19:48.120]  and that means the United States is going to play a role.
[19:48.120 --> 19:51.120]  Turkey alone is not the answer.
[19:51.120 --> 19:54.120]  Well, it's amazing to watch the confusion of the United States,
[19:54.120 --> 19:56.120]  as a matter of fact, as it looks at this.
[19:56.120 --> 20:01.120]  I mean, we forget, as I pointed out in an essay that's in issues to 2012,
[20:01.120 --> 20:05.120]  that dictators are very convenient.
[20:05.120 --> 20:08.120]  There was just one go-to guy in any country.
[20:08.120 --> 20:10.120]  Either he was a royal or he was a general.
[20:10.120 --> 20:12.120]  You went to him, things got decided, they got done,
[20:12.120 --> 20:15.120]  or they didn't get done, but you only had to talk to one guy.
[20:15.120 --> 20:17.120]  Who do you talk to now in Egypt?
[20:17.120 --> 20:20.120]  The Americans still act as if you can just talk to the military,
[20:20.120 --> 20:21.120]  they can't.
[20:21.120 --> 20:24.120]  They literally do not know who to talk to now.
[20:24.120 --> 20:28.120]  And that is a scary position if you are the Secretary of State
[20:28.120 --> 20:30.120]  or the President of the United States,
[20:30.120 --> 20:32.120]  and you're looking at one of your most important allies
[20:32.120 --> 20:34.120]  and one of the most volatile regions in the world.
[20:34.120 --> 20:36.120]  But that's the way it is.
[20:36.120 --> 20:38.120]  It is what it is at this point.
[20:38.120 --> 20:40.120]  Who do you talk to in those countries?
[20:40.120 --> 20:42.120]  Who do you talk to back in the United States?
[20:42.120 --> 20:47.120]  An election year is beginning in a nation more than ever polarized
[20:47.120 --> 20:52.120]  and left, and where we've seen suspicions of those in the high
[20:52.120 --> 20:55.120]  halls of power take on new forms.
[20:55.120 --> 20:58.120]  If the start of the year began with everybody here in France
[20:58.120 --> 21:02.120]  trying to understand what the Tea Party is,
[21:02.120 --> 21:06.120]  now comes Occupy Wall Street and its affiliated franchises
[21:06.120 --> 21:07.120]  in several cities.
[21:07.120 --> 21:10.120]  Christopher Dickey, for our viewers who are not in the United States,
[21:10.120 --> 21:11.120]  is this just college kids?
[21:11.120 --> 21:12.120]  What's going on?
[21:12.120 --> 21:15.120]  No, no, it's a much bigger cross-section of the population.
[21:15.120 --> 21:19.120]  It is, in its way, Occupy Wall Street is the left-wing equivalent
[21:19.120 --> 21:21.120]  of the Tea Party on the right.
[21:21.120 --> 21:24.120]  It's an expression of fear and anger and a desire
[21:24.120 --> 21:27.120]  to see something change, although in both cases
[21:27.120 --> 21:30.120]  it isn't really clear what people want to change.
[21:30.120 --> 21:34.120]  Well, what's clear, they know what they don't want.
[21:34.120 --> 21:36.120]  They know what they don't like and don't want, absolutely.
[21:36.120 --> 21:37.120]  So that's first a good point.
[21:37.120 --> 21:39.120]  And what's very interesting about this movement
[21:39.120 --> 21:41.120]  is how it's spread all around the world,
[21:41.120 --> 21:44.120]  because you had on the one side the Indianates in Spain
[21:44.120 --> 21:47.120]  and on the other side you had Occupy Wall Street.
[21:47.120 --> 21:50.120]  And all the movement, you know, they just merged together
[21:50.120 --> 21:53.120]  and you had all those demonstrations all around the world.
[21:53.120 --> 21:57.120]  And after you need, when a movement has to succeed or not,
[21:57.120 --> 22:00.120]  and when you observe in the U.S., Occupy Wall Street
[22:00.120 --> 22:04.120]  is still very active, whereas when you look at in Europe,
[22:04.120 --> 22:07.120]  you know, the movement, well, there are some movements,
[22:07.120 --> 22:09.120]  there are a few demonstrations, but they don't have the media
[22:09.120 --> 22:13.120]  behind them, and that's one of their weakness.
[22:13.120 --> 22:17.120]  And in the U.S., the media came because of the movement
[22:17.120 --> 22:19.120]  to express the reason of the movement,
[22:19.120 --> 22:21.120]  and then they came back because you had some movie stars,
[22:21.120 --> 22:23.120]  some actors, some singers who came.
[22:23.120 --> 22:26.120]  So the media came for the people aspect of the movement,
[22:26.120 --> 22:30.120]  where in Europe, the stars don't want to be involved.
[22:30.120 --> 22:34.120]  Patrick Smith, I've heard it said that in the case in the U.K.
[22:34.120 --> 22:37.120]  with the Occupy St. Paul's, I believe it was,
[22:37.120 --> 22:39.120]  people became quickly disenchanted
[22:39.120 --> 22:43.120]  when they started to organize stuff a little too much.
[22:43.120 --> 22:46.120]  I think one of the points is, as everyone says,
[22:46.120 --> 22:48.120]  we know what we don't want.
[22:48.120 --> 22:50.120]  That's the sort of clarion call.
[22:50.120 --> 22:53.120]  But they also set up a tent with a library in it.
[22:53.120 --> 22:56.120]  And a friend of mine said any movement that sets up a tent
[22:56.120 --> 22:58.120]  with a library in it to find out what we do want,
[22:58.120 --> 23:00.120]  you know, he's going to get his backing.
[23:00.120 --> 23:02.120]  I can see the point.
[23:02.120 --> 23:04.120]  I think it's more diffuse now,
[23:04.120 --> 23:07.120]  and they had this confrontation with the religious authorities
[23:07.120 --> 23:10.120]  in London, and in fact, you know,
[23:10.120 --> 23:14.120]  one of the clerics had to resign as a result of this.
[23:14.120 --> 23:17.120]  So I think popular support is still quite high,
[23:17.120 --> 23:20.120]  because it does ring all the right bells.
[23:20.120 --> 23:24.120]  They can skepticism about politicians, their hypocrisy,
[23:24.120 --> 23:27.120]  their corruption, skepticism about the bankers
[23:27.120 --> 23:29.120]  who've caused this crisis.
[23:29.120 --> 23:31.120]  We've talked about youth unemployment.
[23:31.120 --> 23:33.120]  It's all put in a bag.
[23:33.120 --> 23:35.120]  The problem is, it's all too simplistic.
[23:35.120 --> 23:38.120]  And there isn't now a counter-movement to say
[23:38.120 --> 23:40.120]  what we do want.
[23:40.120 --> 23:42.120]  But the mantra is change,
[23:42.120 --> 23:46.120]  and that worked pretty well for Obama, I think, in 2008.
[23:46.120 --> 23:48.120]  Right, so there's this diffuse anger.
[23:48.120 --> 23:53.120]  Does it help or hurt Barack Obama as he bids for reelection?
[23:53.120 --> 23:56.120]  I don't think it actually hurts him terribly.
[23:56.120 --> 23:58.120]  I'm not sure how much it helps him.
[23:58.120 --> 24:03.120]  I mean, I think what you have is a generalized response to fear,
[24:03.120 --> 24:05.120]  economic fear.
[24:05.120 --> 24:10.120]  I mean, fear that, you know, the credit crisis is going to get worse.
[24:10.120 --> 24:11.120]  We see it.
[24:11.120 --> 24:13.120]  Unemployment is getting worse.
[24:13.120 --> 24:16.120]  It's beginning to pick up a bit in the United States,
[24:16.120 --> 24:18.120]  unlike in Europe.
[24:18.120 --> 24:22.120]  American stimulus is finally kicking in.
[24:22.120 --> 24:26.120]  I mean, American presidents try to time these things properly.
[24:26.120 --> 24:28.120]  We'll see if Obama times it right.
[24:28.120 --> 24:31.120]  But the economy will define whether he's re-elected
[24:31.120 --> 24:34.120]  as much as the Republican candidate will.
[24:34.120 --> 24:36.120]  I mean, it now looks on the Republican side
[24:36.120 --> 24:39.120]  that you're not going to get a Tea Party candidate.
[24:39.120 --> 24:43.120]  You'll probably get Romney or get Gingrich.
[24:43.120 --> 24:45.120]  I think probably at this point,
[24:45.120 --> 24:48.120]  Romney's more of a danger to Obama than Gingrich.
[24:48.120 --> 24:50.120]  But it's early.
[24:50.120 --> 24:51.120]  It's hard to know.
[24:51.120 --> 24:56.120]  But I think Obama is very vulnerable because the magic is gone.
[24:56.120 --> 24:58.120]  People are upset.
[24:58.120 --> 25:03.120]  They think he's smart, but they don't think he's been very effective.
[25:03.120 --> 25:09.120]  Chris Radicki, is there the fear that people won't turn out to vote for Barack Obama?
[25:09.120 --> 25:12.120]  I'm sure that they're not going to turn out the way they did last time around.
[25:12.120 --> 25:15.120]  I mean, when Steve says the magic is gone,
[25:15.120 --> 25:18.120]  he puts his finger exactly on the problem that Obama has.
[25:18.120 --> 25:20.120]  Not just that the economy is difficult,
[25:20.120 --> 25:24.120]  but he was able to mobilize people who normally don't go out and vote.
[25:24.120 --> 25:26.120]  And they would get on Facebook.
[25:26.120 --> 25:28.120]  They would use all the social media.
[25:28.120 --> 25:33.120]  And what's really interesting is that his campaign was designed
[25:33.120 --> 25:36.120]  so that you would get on these social media
[25:36.120 --> 25:39.120]  and then you would be directed to take concrete actions.
[25:39.120 --> 25:43.120]  These are the addresses of doors you should knock on in your neighborhood.
[25:43.120 --> 25:45.120]  This is the amount of money you should raise.
[25:45.120 --> 25:49.120]  It was an incredible machine getting him elected.
[25:49.120 --> 25:51.120]  I don't think it's going to work nearly as well this time around.
[25:51.120 --> 25:54.120]  So how he reinvents a huge amount of money, don't forget.
[25:54.120 --> 25:57.120]  And how he reinvents himself and what his opponent does,
[25:57.120 --> 26:26.120]  we'll pick up on that point when we return for this New Year's edition of The World This Week.
[26:27.120 --> 26:29.120]  Thank you.
[26:57.120 --> 27:00.120]  Thank you.
[27:27.120 --> 27:29.120]  Thank you.
[27:58.120 --> 28:00.120]  Thank you.
[28:00.120 --> 28:02.120]  Thank you.
[28:30.120 --> 28:32.120]  Welcome to 2012 in Style.
[28:32.120 --> 28:35.120]  From London to New York to right here in Paris,
[28:35.120 --> 28:40.120]  we've got all the party pictures for you.
[28:40.120 --> 28:42.120]  It's a happy 10th birthday to the Euro,
[28:42.120 --> 28:45.120]  but with the debt crisis rocking the Eurozone to its core
[28:45.120 --> 28:47.120]  plus the threat of recession,
[28:47.120 --> 28:51.120]  many say there's little to celebrate.
[28:51.120 --> 28:55.120]  And the head of the Senate in the Democratic Republic of Congo
[28:55.120 --> 28:57.120]  has been attacked here in Paris.
[28:57.120 --> 29:03.120]  He's been hospitalised after being sat upon at the train station Gardinol.
[29:03.120 --> 29:05.120]  So those are the latest headlines.
[29:05.120 --> 29:06.120]  Welcome to Frans van Katz.
[29:06.120 --> 29:08.120]  I'm Louise Hanna.
[29:08.120 --> 29:11.120]  Millions of people around the world have been welcoming in the New Year
[29:11.120 --> 29:15.120]  with fireworks, parties and even a few celebrities.
[29:15.120 --> 29:20.120]  In New York, Pop Diva Lady Gaga and Michael Bloomberg hit the switch
[29:20.120 --> 29:24.120]  sending the city's famous crystal ball on its countdown drop.
[29:24.120 --> 29:28.120]  London paid homage to the 2012 Olympics that it will host.
[29:28.120 --> 29:31.120]  Kicking off its fireworks display with a recording of the moment
[29:31.120 --> 29:33.120]  it learned it would host the games.
[29:33.120 --> 29:34.120]  While here in Paris,
[29:34.120 --> 29:37.120]  revelers popped champagne corks at midnight
[29:37.120 --> 29:39.120]  along the famed Champs Elysees,
[29:39.120 --> 29:43.120]  all got themselves to a rooftop where they could see the Eiffel Tower shimmer
[29:43.120 --> 29:45.120]  in pink, golden whites.
[29:48.120 --> 29:49.120]  In other world news,
[29:49.120 --> 29:51.120]  the Government of Democratic Republic of Congo
[29:51.120 --> 29:53.120]  has accused opposition supporters
[29:53.120 --> 29:57.120]  of attacking the President of the Senate in Paris on Saturday night.
[29:57.120 --> 30:26.120]  Leon Congo Wadondo was set upon at the time of the election.