Detecting language using up to the first 30 seconds. Use `--language` to specify the language Detected language: English [00:00.000 --> 00:05.840] Earlier, we spoke to Lumbar Manday, Information Minister for the Democratic Republic of Congo. [00:05.840 --> 00:10.640] I asked him why he believes that its opposition leader Etienne Cheese Academy supporters [00:10.640 --> 00:12.080] who are behind the attack. [00:13.680 --> 00:17.600] We know that these guys are organized in the gang. [00:17.600 --> 00:21.600] In Paris, this is not the first aggression they are participating. [00:21.600 --> 00:29.600] There, they have already attacked the two officers of our police who were the parties for treatment. [00:29.600 --> 00:36.640] They have attacked a lot of officials, ministers, and even militia and artists going in the [00:36.640 --> 00:41.520] Paris, they have attacked the twice, the embassy of Congo in Paris. [00:41.520 --> 00:48.000] And sometimes they have been arrested and taken in in the office of the police for being [00:48.000 --> 00:52.240] identified and integrated, but immediately released. [00:52.240 --> 00:59.840] So, this move for our partners in Paris should have been found in the United States in a car accident for them, though. [00:59.840 --> 01:05.280] We are not interested in landing in the controversy, which our friends in Paris [01:05.280 --> 01:09.840] we hope that something can be done to stop this gang. [01:09.840 --> 01:17.520] We are well-dactified, though, are follow-up of Mr. Chisequedi in alliance with some people who [01:17.520 --> 01:23.040] were walking with the late Mobutu like Mr. Manda. We know that very well. [01:23.040 --> 01:27.360] Well, we should just add that there haven't been any arrests of opposition supporters, Etienne. [01:27.360 --> 01:30.480] Chisequedi's supporters emulation to that attack. [01:32.560 --> 01:38.160] In other news, it's a happy birthday to the Euro this Sunday as it celebrates 10 years since its creation. [01:38.160 --> 01:42.560] But for some, it does little to toast, as Europe continues to try and fight the Eurozone [01:42.560 --> 01:48.720] debt crisis and the rest of the world waits with baited breath to see how it'll impact on their economies. [01:51.520 --> 01:57.200] 2002 and enthusiasm over Europe's newly founded single currency was running high. [01:58.160 --> 02:01.440] 10 years later, and the situation couldn't be more different. [02:02.160 --> 02:06.880] The debt crisis has rocked a continent, leaving European leaders struggling to prevent [02:06.880 --> 02:12.160] the Eurozone's fragmentation. Some have blamed the design flow in the Euro's implementation. [02:13.360 --> 02:18.240] Obviously, we only had the monetary side. We didn't have the budgetary or fiscal aspects, [02:18.240 --> 02:22.560] and we didn't have the politics to go with it. People who put their money together should also [02:22.560 --> 02:27.280] put political decisions about that money together, too. I think that's what's behind the thinking [02:27.280 --> 02:33.840] when people say the Euro was half-baked. Eurozone states have run up massive debts. [02:33.840 --> 02:39.200] It's meant to rise in Euro's skepticism, and some believe the worst could still be yet to come. [02:39.920 --> 02:46.320] I don't think Europe has hit bottom yet, because no bank has gone bankrupt. [02:46.320 --> 02:53.840] And if Greece has declared bankruptcy, however investors have found the political response to [02:53.840 --> 02:59.600] the debt crisis muddled at best. 16 summits in two years have done little to help. [02:59.600 --> 03:05.680] He said we agree where there was no agreement. They said there was a solution where there was none. [03:05.680 --> 03:08.320] Little by little, they've lost credibility. [03:08.320 --> 03:15.120] Look at the visit to Odin. If 2011's been a bad year for the Euro, it seems 2012 may just [03:15.120 --> 03:20.400] decide if the single currency will survive or not. With yet another summit at the end of next [03:20.400 --> 03:24.000] month, amid even more bankruptcy fears for Italy and Spain. [03:24.000 --> 03:30.960] Iran says it's test-fired a new medium-range missile on Sunday. It comes during the final [03:30.960 --> 03:36.720] part of a 10-day naval drill in the Gulf, close to the straight of almost a key oil route. [03:36.720 --> 03:40.720] Iran threatened to close the passageway after the U.S. place sanctions on it, [03:40.720 --> 03:42.480] because of its nuclear program. [03:44.880 --> 03:50.400] And Iran's currency, the real, slipped to a record low on Sunday, a day after the U.S. imposed [03:50.400 --> 03:54.080] extra sanctions targeting its central bank and financial sector. [03:55.760 --> 03:59.200] To Syria now and Arab League monitors appear to be in conflicts, [03:59.200 --> 04:04.160] over whether it saw government snipers in Dara, in a video released by the Syrian Observatory [04:04.160 --> 04:09.040] for Human Rights, one of the observers that assert he'd seen them with his own eyes. [04:09.040 --> 04:12.640] And yet the head of the mission later said the remark was just hypothetical, [04:12.640 --> 04:14.960] and that the observer didn't see anything. [04:14.960 --> 04:23.360] In this amateur footage, snipers appear to be in position to fire from a rooftop [04:23.360 --> 04:28.160] in the city of Dara. They're thought to be loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. [04:28.800 --> 04:32.080] Gunshots can be heard in the distance and close by. [04:32.960 --> 04:37.600] The footage cannot be verified, but it purports to have been filmed on Saturday [04:37.600 --> 04:42.800] during a visit to the city by Arab League observers. In another amateur video, one of the [04:42.800 --> 04:45.440] observers claims to have seen snipers himself. [04:47.840 --> 04:53.520] From the al-Maria side, snipers, we saw them with our own eyes. We call on the authorities to [04:53.520 --> 04:59.200] remove them immediately and we will contact the Arab League immediately if they do not comply [04:59.200 --> 05:02.080] within 24 hours, there will be other procedures. [05:05.040 --> 05:10.800] But the head of the mission Mustafa Al-Dabi told the BBC that the observer had pledged to take action [05:10.800 --> 05:16.640] if snipers were spotted, not that any snipers had been identified. The seeming contradiction [05:16.640 --> 05:22.560] reinforces fears of Syrian opposition figures about Al-Dabi's suitability in leading a mission [05:22.560 --> 05:28.000] to investigate human rights abuses in Syria. He held security positions under Sudan's [05:28.000 --> 05:33.920] President Omar Al-Vashir, who is wanted on international charges of committing genocide in Darfur. [05:34.800 --> 05:38.320] Protesters have criticized Al-Dabi's response to the violence, [05:38.320 --> 05:44.400] which has continued despite the observer's presence. This amateur footage appears to show security [05:44.400 --> 05:50.400] forces in homes, kicking an unarmed protester, then hitting him with the butt of a gun before [05:50.400 --> 05:56.240] rounding him up, along with other young men. In Idlib, crowds gathered at a funeral. [05:56.240 --> 06:01.600] They chant their defiance of President Bashar Al-Assad, saying they will bow only to God, [06:01.600 --> 06:04.000] and that the President is the enemy of God. [06:04.000 --> 06:09.600] In two days, time Americans will start voting for who they want as their Republican [06:09.600 --> 06:13.840] or presidential candidates. The race kicks off in the Midwestern state of Iowa, [06:13.840 --> 06:17.920] where Frontrunner met Romney's trying to woo voters with his plans on immigration. [06:20.560 --> 06:24.000] Immigration has become one of the main issues in the Iowa caucus. [06:24.560 --> 06:28.480] The state's Hispanic population has almost doubled over the last decade, [06:28.480 --> 06:33.840] making up 5% of its residents. A growth concentrated in some counties and towns, [06:33.840 --> 06:38.000] where Mexicans and Central American immigrants work in meatpacking plants, [06:38.000 --> 06:39.520] factories, and farms. [06:39.520 --> 06:43.040] If my country wasn't good shape, I wouldn't have come. [06:43.040 --> 06:45.440] But things are really tough there. [06:45.440 --> 06:50.000] But some people in this conservative state see the immigration surges a threat [06:50.000 --> 06:55.520] at a time when jobs are scarce. The Tea Party movement opposed the Dream Act, [06:55.520 --> 06:59.600] which would allow children dot to the US illegally by their parents to earn [06:59.600 --> 07:03.680] citizenship by graduating from college or serving in the military. [07:03.680 --> 07:07.760] And then the people who are illegal can go back home. [07:07.760 --> 07:11.680] They can then make him decide if they want to come here legally, get in line, [07:11.680 --> 07:15.920] and come through and do the hard things that it takes to become an American citizen. [07:15.920 --> 07:19.360] Frontrunner Mitt Romney said he would veto the Dream Act [07:19.360 --> 07:23.360] and take measures to stop new waves of illegal immigration at the border [07:23.360 --> 07:25.200] that is called E-code by his rivals. [07:25.200 --> 07:30.320] We will shut down and secure the border with Mexico. [07:30.320 --> 07:33.920] We will put the boots on the ground, the aviation assets in place. [07:33.920 --> 07:36.720] That border will be safe and it will be secure. [07:36.720 --> 07:40.880] In recent decades, the US has experienced one of its largest waves of [07:40.880 --> 07:46.080] immigration with an estimated 11 million undocumented aliens living in the country. [07:47.840 --> 07:51.760] And a motorcycleist has died on the first day of the Dakar rally. [07:51.760 --> 07:55.840] Competsters from 50 countries around the world are taking part in the two weeks, [07:55.840 --> 08:00.720] 9,000 kilometer race that will run through Argentina, Chile and Peru. [08:00.720 --> 08:03.280] But it's just been announced that Argentinian bike reader, [08:03.280 --> 08:06.880] rider, Jorge Matinoz Barero, has been killed. [08:06.880 --> 08:09.360] It was the first time he was taking part in the event. [08:09.360 --> 08:23.120] That's all we have time for, we're back in 20 minutes. [08:27.120 --> 08:32.400] Hello and welcome to a special new year's edition of the world this week, [08:32.400 --> 08:34.640] the world this year you might want to call it. [08:34.640 --> 08:38.160] I'm also began with joined by distinguished panel today, [08:38.160 --> 08:41.120] Christopher Dickie of Newsweek in the Daily Beast, [08:41.120 --> 08:46.560] Otbaum, and her and chief of lepros new valves, which is again, [08:46.560 --> 08:50.560] which is a participative section on the internet of Renovid Observator. [08:50.560 --> 08:53.440] So citizens and experts can write about these news. [08:53.440 --> 08:56.160] I'm leading French news weekly magazines, [08:57.120 --> 08:59.760] citizen journalist website or... [08:59.760 --> 09:00.560] Yeah, it's a website. [09:00.560 --> 09:01.680] It's a website as well. [09:01.680 --> 09:05.920] And Patrick Smith of the Africa Report published monthly, [09:05.920 --> 09:08.160] yep, with the brand new edition of the shop, [09:08.160 --> 09:11.440] telling you all you need to know about what's going to go on in 2012. [09:11.440 --> 09:14.960] And Steven Eronger, Paris Bureau Chief for the New York Times. [09:14.960 --> 09:16.720] There's an addition every day. [09:18.000 --> 09:19.520] Updated several times today. [09:19.520 --> 09:20.880] Exactly, endlessly. [09:20.880 --> 09:22.880] Okay, we laughed out newsly. [09:23.840 --> 09:29.120] Last week, we saw how the Arab Spring blossoms pretty much spontaneously. [09:29.120 --> 09:30.960] Now comes the hard part. [09:30.960 --> 09:34.000] Nations like Egypt and Tunisia find themselves [09:34.000 --> 09:38.720] having to pick leaders for leaderless revolutions. [09:38.720 --> 09:41.040] Now everywhere, there's been elections. [09:41.040 --> 09:43.760] The big winners, Steven Erlinger, have been. [09:45.360 --> 09:47.920] Well, the big winners have been the Islamists. [09:47.920 --> 09:50.240] And that's not a bad thing, frankly. [09:51.040 --> 09:52.640] But it's not necessarily a good thing, [09:52.640 --> 09:55.440] because there are lots of different kinds of Islamists. [09:55.440 --> 09:58.160] And they believe lots of different kinds of things. [09:58.160 --> 09:59.920] The Muslim Brotherhood, it seems to me. [09:59.920 --> 10:04.880] I mean, others may disagree, was the inevitable beneficiary, [10:04.880 --> 10:07.440] because it was always seen as the opposition. [10:07.440 --> 10:09.920] It was repressed by these old regimes, [10:09.920 --> 10:11.840] but it was very organized. [10:11.840 --> 10:14.320] Had a lot of money, some of it from the outside. [10:14.320 --> 10:15.840] It did a lot of charity work. [10:15.840 --> 10:19.440] It was in the villages with the people. [10:19.440 --> 10:21.520] So they're recognizable. [10:21.520 --> 10:23.200] That would make sense. [10:23.200 --> 10:26.160] The big question for Egypt, for example, is what kind of deal [10:26.160 --> 10:29.360] has the army struck with the Muslim Brotherhood? [10:29.360 --> 10:31.840] Will the Muslim Brotherhood split blah, blah, blah? [10:31.840 --> 10:33.600] I mean, this will have to see. [10:33.600 --> 10:38.800] But by itself, you know, the general support for the Islamists [10:38.800 --> 10:41.920] makes perfect sense, and should not be a great concern. [10:41.920 --> 10:42.800] I don't think. [10:42.800 --> 10:44.080] Patrick Smith? [10:44.080 --> 10:48.560] Well, it's certainly the case that the Islamists have taken over [10:48.560 --> 10:51.520] the spirit of the revolution, which appeared to be [10:51.520 --> 10:55.440] of a very secular and non-theocratic spirit [10:55.440 --> 10:57.680] when it started. [10:57.680 --> 11:01.200] I think it's going to be very, very difficult to predict [11:01.200 --> 11:02.000] how it's going to pan out. [11:02.000 --> 11:06.560] I think it will, the feeling that events in Egypt [11:06.560 --> 11:09.680] may parallel those in Turkey where you have this [11:09.680 --> 11:12.720] contest between the military and the Islamists. [11:12.720 --> 11:16.080] And somehow, they find there's an accommodation. [11:16.080 --> 11:18.240] I think that could be possible. [11:18.240 --> 11:20.720] I think what's particularly striking in Egypt, [11:20.720 --> 11:24.000] and certainly the first round that we've seen so far, [11:24.000 --> 11:28.640] is that the brothers who have been active in Egypt for 80 years. [11:28.640 --> 11:32.800] They got 35, 36 percent, and the Salafists, [11:32.800 --> 11:35.840] the extremely conservative Islamist group, [11:35.840 --> 11:38.880] got over 20 percent. [11:38.880 --> 11:41.440] This is Egypt's going to be the only country in which groups [11:41.440 --> 11:44.880] like the Salafists have a seat in parliament. [11:44.880 --> 11:47.520] They have opted for parliamentary politics. [11:47.520 --> 11:50.880] So it's entirely new political tactic for them [11:50.880 --> 11:55.200] to compete for votes like that. [11:55.200 --> 12:01.760] In Egypt, we saw Salafists posters where women were represented [12:01.760 --> 12:06.480] by flowers, or at least one case, by the candidate's husband, [12:06.480 --> 12:08.000] how is this going to play out, though, [12:08.000 --> 12:12.160] in a nation that's used to 14 million Western tourists [12:12.160 --> 12:13.360] a year, Christopher. [12:13.360 --> 12:14.720] Well, it's not going to be good for tourism. [12:14.720 --> 12:17.360] I think we can say with some confidence, tourism is going to suffer. [12:17.360 --> 12:19.600] Is suffering and is going to suffer in Egypt? [12:19.600 --> 12:23.040] When I think as we look forward, it's important to realize [12:23.040 --> 12:26.800] that we are at a whole new stage in Arab history, [12:26.800 --> 12:28.640] because of the demographics of the Arab world, [12:28.640 --> 12:32.000] because of the connectivity of the Arab world now. [12:32.000 --> 12:34.320] I mean, when I first started going there 25 years ago, [12:34.320 --> 12:37.040] you could barely get a landline to make a telephone call. [12:37.040 --> 12:38.720] Now, everybody has cell phones. [12:38.720 --> 12:40.240] Everybody has satellite television. [12:40.240 --> 12:42.000] A lot of people are on the internet. [12:42.000 --> 12:46.800] And the majority of the population is under 25 years old. [12:46.800 --> 12:50.160] A lot of been in Yemen, the majority is under 18. [12:50.160 --> 12:53.440] So this is a whole different dynamic going ahead. [12:53.440 --> 12:56.000] And I think the one thing that is predictable [12:56.000 --> 12:58.320] is that it's going to be completely unpredictable. [12:58.320 --> 13:03.760] I was in Taira Square in 2010, as Mubarak was coming down, [13:03.760 --> 13:07.040] and having lived in Egypt for six years over the years, [13:07.040 --> 13:09.200] I was surprised three or four times a day. [13:09.200 --> 13:11.280] Something would happen that I simply [13:11.280 --> 13:14.000] could not have imagined happening before. [13:14.000 --> 13:16.480] And I think that's going to continue. [13:16.480 --> 13:18.800] The economy, I mean, is also going to be a huge issue. [13:18.800 --> 13:22.320] I mean, which I think is going to be a moderating force [13:22.320 --> 13:26.560] on whichever coalition dominates Egyptian politics. [13:26.560 --> 13:29.600] They simply have to change the way business is done. [13:29.600 --> 13:32.640] And some of the prescriptions, particularly the Southist prescriptions, [13:32.640 --> 13:36.240] just wouldn't make sense in a modern world. [13:36.240 --> 13:38.480] And I think that's where you're going to see a huge pressure [13:38.480 --> 13:43.600] for compromise on the brothers to make deals with perhaps [13:43.600 --> 13:46.080] some secularist forces or less religious forces. [13:46.080 --> 13:47.600] Simply to get the economy moving. [13:47.600 --> 13:49.680] Because it's going to be the first time [13:49.680 --> 13:51.280] they're really going to be put to the test, [13:51.280 --> 13:52.480] the electorally. [13:52.480 --> 13:56.080] You might also see someone like Amra Moose, who's basically [13:56.080 --> 13:58.480] a secularist becoming president of Egypt. [13:58.480 --> 14:00.320] I mean, former head of the Arab League. [14:00.320 --> 14:02.640] Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure that's a good thing, particularly. [14:02.640 --> 14:05.840] But it again would be a moderating force, particularly [14:05.840 --> 14:09.200] for the outside world to feel that there was somebody there [14:09.200 --> 14:14.560] that they had some idea who they were and what they thought. [14:14.560 --> 14:17.600] We're talking about the youth here. [14:17.600 --> 14:23.440] And are they contradictory on the one hand conservative religious values? [14:23.440 --> 14:25.680] And on the other hand, this sort of generation [14:25.680 --> 14:30.880] why ethos of going on social networking sites, even to find soulmates? [14:30.880 --> 14:33.920] Well, when you look on the social networks and on the internet, [14:33.920 --> 14:36.560] you mainly see use. [14:36.560 --> 14:40.000] So you only hear, well, you hear mainly the same folks. [14:40.000 --> 14:42.240] And they want to know freedom and liberty. [14:42.240 --> 14:44.720] And they want the right for democracy. [14:44.720 --> 14:47.840] And one of the big stakes for next year is [14:47.840 --> 14:50.160] with the movement we'll continue on the internet. [14:50.160 --> 14:52.240] And especially when you see a country like Syria, [14:52.240 --> 14:56.400] where the information is difficult to access. [14:56.400 --> 14:59.680] And some hackers really help the people to communicate. [14:59.680 --> 15:02.960] And to communicate with each other and with the West and the world. [15:02.960 --> 15:05.360] And we just have to hope that those hackers, [15:05.360 --> 15:07.440] well, first they won't have any problem, you know? [15:07.440 --> 15:10.480] And then they will continue because they've been doing this for months [15:10.480 --> 15:13.360] and months. And maybe after a while, they would get tired. [15:13.360 --> 15:14.480] And they will stop. [15:14.480 --> 15:16.880] And I met one of them last week. [15:16.880 --> 15:18.720] And he was saying that, you know, it's a big news. [15:18.720 --> 15:21.200] There were thousands because they were very excited. [15:21.200 --> 15:24.000] And no, there are only a few dozens. [15:24.000 --> 15:26.800] And maybe after, you know, months after months, [15:26.800 --> 15:28.240] there's a movement really decline. [15:28.240 --> 15:31.360] Do you sense revolution fatigue, prosperity? [15:31.360 --> 15:33.360] Yeah, I've outside in the outside world. [15:33.360 --> 15:36.960] Yes, people are like, oh, no, not another story about our revolution. [15:36.960 --> 15:39.040] So when Syria ever going to end, of course, [15:39.040 --> 15:41.200] people are very cynical and they get tired very fast. [15:41.200 --> 15:44.080] I don't think there's revolution fatigue in these countries. [15:44.080 --> 15:46.480] I think there's a lot of disappointment that things haven't [15:46.480 --> 15:48.160] been delivered more quickly. [15:48.160 --> 15:51.200] But I think they're just reflecting on what Patrick said. [15:51.200 --> 15:54.400] We really are going to see some interesting things happen as the Islamists, [15:54.400 --> 15:58.240] for instance, are given the responsibility of governing. [15:58.240 --> 15:59.760] I don't think they can do it. [15:59.760 --> 16:02.640] I think we actually are going to see it would be a good guess [16:02.640 --> 16:05.360] that we will see the beginning of the end of the Islamic trend [16:05.360 --> 16:06.880] over the next couple of years. [16:06.880 --> 16:09.120] Because they're not going to be able to deliver. [16:09.120 --> 16:11.280] And we're going to have this chaotic situation. [16:11.280 --> 16:14.080] And the outside world will get tired of it. [16:14.080 --> 16:16.960] But I think the fact that people, especially young people, [16:16.960 --> 16:21.600] are living in a dynamic environment now, where things can change, [16:21.600 --> 16:22.640] is just amazing. [16:22.640 --> 16:27.440] I mean, four decades, four, two, three generations in the Arab world, [16:27.440 --> 16:30.000] nothing really changed. [16:30.000 --> 16:32.720] I want to get back to one point that Patrick was mentioning earlier, [16:32.720 --> 16:33.680] which is Turkey. [16:33.680 --> 16:37.680] Now, there's competing foreign influences tugging at one another in places [16:37.680 --> 16:38.320] like Egypt. [16:38.320 --> 16:41.680] There's the Gulf States, where there's lots of conservative Muslims [16:41.680 --> 16:43.280] from Egypt who've gone to find work. [16:43.280 --> 16:45.760] There's the US, which plows a lot of aid into the country, [16:45.760 --> 16:47.120] mostly military. [16:47.120 --> 16:52.320] And then there's the growing star places like Turkey, who's Prime Minister. [16:52.320 --> 16:57.280] Got a rock star welcome when he visited Egypt a few months back. [16:57.280 --> 17:00.800] That's all the more remarkable Patrick that Turkey was once home to the old [17:00.800 --> 17:02.480] colonizers, the Ottoman Empire. [17:02.480 --> 17:08.400] Yeah, history repeating itself with a very different take. [17:08.400 --> 17:09.920] Erdogan's had a brilliant year. [17:09.920 --> 17:14.560] So as Qatar, I think those have been the internal beneficiaries [17:14.560 --> 17:18.720] of the Arab Spring have clearly been the Islamist and the external beneficiaries, [17:18.720 --> 17:20.640] if you like, have been Turkey and Qatar. [17:20.640 --> 17:24.480] They both moved very quickly to back the winners. [17:24.480 --> 17:28.080] Turkey's case was really interesting, because Erdogan had won the [17:28.080 --> 17:32.240] Muhammad Gaddafi human rights prize a year ago, and then suddenly he discovered [17:32.240 --> 17:35.680] Muhammad Gaddafi was a really bad guy needed over throwing. [17:35.680 --> 17:38.560] So what happens vis-a-vis his neighbor, Syria? [17:38.560 --> 17:41.440] He's going to be one of the deciders. [17:41.440 --> 17:43.600] There's no question about that. [17:43.600 --> 17:46.960] Turkey's influence in the region. [17:46.960 --> 17:48.800] I think has been enhanced. [17:48.800 --> 17:53.040] It's very much in keeping with the move within the Arab League. [17:53.040 --> 17:57.520] I mean, for the first time in history, the Arab League has sanctioned a member [17:57.520 --> 18:03.680] at that level, not only supported the bombing against Gaddafi initially, [18:03.680 --> 18:08.080] but then moved against Syria, which regards itself as a cornerstone of the Arab League. [18:08.080 --> 18:10.000] And Erdogan is right up with them. [18:10.000 --> 18:13.920] And I think it's really going to enhance Turkey's status. [18:13.920 --> 18:17.840] And as a model also, not just as a sort of political actor, but as a model, [18:17.840 --> 18:21.600] we can have in Islamic state that produces economic growth. [18:21.600 --> 18:25.200] And I think that's the real challenge to all the governments in the region. [18:25.200 --> 18:26.880] Is that going to be possible elsewhere? [18:26.880 --> 18:30.720] Well, one final point on this before we move on, Steven Erlinger, [18:30.720 --> 18:34.560] we'll talk about the West's waning influence in these places. [18:34.560 --> 18:38.080] We're seeing the final pull out of U.S. troops from Iraq. [18:38.080 --> 18:42.880] We're seeing further along the start of the drawdown in Afghanistan. [18:42.880 --> 18:45.760] Are we being too hard on the United States when they do that? [18:45.760 --> 18:48.480] After all, they're rolling with the punches as well. [18:48.480 --> 18:52.960] Well, yeah, and also, frankly, they have a lot of interest in the Pacific, [18:52.960 --> 18:55.920] which everyone forgets, and China's a big issue. [18:55.920 --> 19:02.560] And they need to look a little harder at what China's up to. [19:02.560 --> 19:05.280] And they have friends and allies. [19:05.280 --> 19:07.760] But I think the Americans aren't going to go away. [19:07.760 --> 19:10.080] Don't mistake it. [19:10.080 --> 19:16.080] I think what's fascinating, though, is you have different models in the Arab world [19:16.080 --> 19:20.640] that have died when was Arab nationalism, Nazism. [19:20.640 --> 19:26.560] Then you had this military model, which they tried to turn into a sort of dynasty. [19:26.560 --> 19:31.040] And now you're going to have some kind of vaguely Islamist model. [19:31.040 --> 19:33.200] I'm not sure that's going to work any better. [19:33.200 --> 19:35.120] There's a lot of chaos in confusion. [19:35.120 --> 19:38.480] The stakes are extremely high, not just behind states. [19:38.480 --> 19:42.240] But for the King of Jordan, the King of Morocco, the Saudis. [19:42.240 --> 19:44.480] I mean, things are in play. [19:44.480 --> 19:48.160] And that means the United States is going to play a role. [19:48.160 --> 19:51.440] Turkey alone is not the answer. [19:51.440 --> 19:54.960] Well, it's amazing to watch the confusion of the United States as a matter of fact, as it [19:54.960 --> 19:55.960] looks at this. [19:55.960 --> 20:03.360] I mean, we forget, as I pointed out on an essay that's in the issues to 2012, that dictators [20:03.360 --> 20:05.280] are very convenient. [20:05.280 --> 20:09.680] There was just one go-to guy in any country, either he was a royal or he was a general. [20:09.680 --> 20:13.080] You went to him, things got decided, they got done, or they didn't get done. [20:13.080 --> 20:15.040] But you only had to talk to one guy. [20:15.040 --> 20:16.880] Who do you talk to now in Egypt? [20:16.880 --> 20:21.120] The American still act as if you can just talk to the military, but you can't. [20:21.120 --> 20:24.200] They literally do not know who to talk to now. [20:24.200 --> 20:28.880] And that is a scary position if you are the Secretary of State or the President of the United [20:28.880 --> 20:32.240] States, and you're looking at one of your most important allies in one of the most volatile [20:32.240 --> 20:34.120] regions in the world. [20:34.120 --> 20:35.800] But that's the way it is. [20:35.800 --> 20:37.400] It is what it is at this point. [20:37.400 --> 20:38.400] All right. [20:38.400 --> 20:39.400] Who do you talk to in those countries? [20:39.400 --> 20:45.240] Who do you talk to back in the United States, an election year, is beginning in a nation more [20:45.240 --> 20:48.160] than ever polarized between right and left? [20:48.160 --> 20:55.160] And where we've seen suspicions of those in the high halls of power take on new forms. [20:55.160 --> 20:59.440] If the start of the year began with everybody here in France trying to understand what [20:59.440 --> 21:06.240] Lutipati, the Tea Party, is now comes Occupy Wall Street, and it's affiliated franchises [21:06.240 --> 21:07.880] in several cities. [21:07.880 --> 21:10.920] Christopher Dakey for our viewers who are not in the United States, is it just college [21:10.920 --> 21:11.920] kids? [21:11.920 --> 21:12.920] What's going on? [21:12.920 --> 21:15.360] Not a bigger cross section of the population. [21:15.360 --> 21:19.920] It is, in its way, Occupy Wall Street is the left wing equivalent of the Tea Party on [21:19.920 --> 21:20.920] the right. [21:20.920 --> 21:26.440] It's an expression of fear and anger, and a desire to see something change, although in [21:26.440 --> 21:30.280] both cases, it isn't really clear what people want to change. [21:30.280 --> 21:33.920] Well, what's clear is that you don't know what they don't want. [21:33.920 --> 21:34.920] I don't know. [21:34.920 --> 21:36.920] That's a good point. [21:36.920 --> 21:41.240] And what's very interesting about this movement is how it spread all around the world, [21:41.240 --> 21:45.600] because you had only one side, the Indian it's in Spain, and on the other side, you had [21:45.600 --> 21:50.280] Occupy Wall Street, and all the movement, you know, they just merged together, and you [21:50.280 --> 21:53.000] had also demonstration all around the world. [21:53.000 --> 21:58.640] And after you need, when the movement has success or not, and when you observe in the [21:58.640 --> 22:04.640] US Occupy Wall Street is still very active, whereas when you look at Europe, you know, the [22:04.640 --> 22:05.640] movement. [22:05.640 --> 22:09.640] Well, there are some movements, there are a few demonstrations, but they don't have the media [22:09.640 --> 22:10.640] behind them. [22:10.640 --> 22:17.440] There's one of their weakness, and when the US, the media came, because of the movement [22:17.440 --> 22:21.040] to express the reason of the movement, and then they came back, because you had some [22:21.040 --> 22:23.800] movie stars, some actors, some singers, who came. [22:23.800 --> 22:29.840] So the media came for the people aspect of the movement, where in Europe, these are the [22:29.840 --> 22:30.840] stars I don't want to be involved. [22:30.840 --> 22:35.960] Patrick Smith, I've heard it said that in the case in the UK, with the Occupy Wall Street, [22:35.960 --> 22:41.320] I believe it was, people became quickly disenchanted when they started to organize stuff [22:41.320 --> 22:43.320] a little too much. [22:43.320 --> 22:48.920] I think one of the points is, as I was saying, we know what we don't want, that's the [22:48.920 --> 22:54.200] sort of clarion call, but they also set up a tent with a library in it, and a friend of [22:54.200 --> 22:58.400] mindset, any movement that sets up a tent with a library in it to find out what we do [22:58.400 --> 22:59.400] want. [22:59.400 --> 23:02.160] He's going to get his backing, and I can see the point. [23:02.160 --> 23:08.040] I think it's more diffuse now, and they had this confrontation with their religious authorities [23:08.040 --> 23:14.840] in London, and in fact, one of the clerics had to resign as a result of this. [23:14.840 --> 23:20.720] So I think popular support is still quite high, because it does ring all the right bells. [23:20.720 --> 23:26.680] They can skepticism about politicians, their hypocrisy, their corruption, skepticism about [23:26.680 --> 23:29.080] the bankers who have caused this crisis. [23:29.080 --> 23:34.640] We've talked about youth unemployment, it's all put in a bag, the problem is, it's all [23:34.640 --> 23:39.520] too simplistic, and there isn't, there isn't, now, a counter-movement to say what we do [23:39.520 --> 23:45.160] want, but it's just, the mantra is change, and that worked pretty well for Obama, I think, [23:45.160 --> 23:46.160] in 2008. [23:46.160 --> 23:50.880] Right, so there's just diffuse anger, does it help or hurts Barack Obama's, he bids [23:50.880 --> 23:53.400] a real action? [23:53.400 --> 23:57.640] I don't think it actually hurts him terribly, I'm not sure how much it helps him, I mean, [23:57.640 --> 24:05.240] I think what you have is a generalized response to fear, to economic fear, I mean, fear [24:05.240 --> 24:13.720] that, you know, the credit crisis is going to get worse, we see it, unemployment is getting worse, [24:13.720 --> 24:18.560] beginning to pick up a bit in the United States, unlike in Europe. [24:18.560 --> 24:24.800] American stimulus is finally kicking in, I mean, American presidents try to time these things [24:24.800 --> 24:30.840] properly, we'll see if Obama times it right, but the economy will define whether he's [24:30.840 --> 24:35.920] reelected as much as the Republican candidate will, I mean, it now looks on the Republican [24:35.920 --> 24:42.440] side that you're not going to get a Tea Party candidate, you'll probably get Romney or [24:42.440 --> 24:48.080] Orget Gingrich, I think probably at this point Romney is more of a danger to Obama than [24:48.080 --> 24:55.000] Gingrich, but it's early, it's hard to know, but I think Obama is very vulnerable because [24:55.000 --> 25:01.760] the magic is gone, people are upset, they think he's smart, but they don't think he's [25:01.760 --> 25:03.760] been very effective. [25:03.760 --> 25:08.640] Christopher Dickie, is there the fear that people won't turn out to vote for Barack [25:08.640 --> 25:09.640] Obama? [25:09.640 --> 25:14.040] I'm sure that they're not going to turn out the way they did last time around, I mean, [25:14.040 --> 25:17.880] when Steve says the magic is gone, he puts his finger exactly on the problem that [25:17.880 --> 25:22.800] Obama has, not just that the economy is difficult, but he was able to mobilize people [25:22.800 --> 25:27.600] who normally don't go out and vote, and they would get on Facebook, they would use all [25:27.600 --> 25:35.440] the social media and what's really interesting is that his campaign was designed so that [25:35.440 --> 25:40.520] you would get on these social media and then you would be directed to take concrete actions. [25:40.520 --> 25:44.520] These are the addresses of doors you should knock on in your neighborhood. [25:44.520 --> 25:49.280] This is the amount of money you should raise, it was an incredible machine getting him [25:49.280 --> 25:50.280] elected. [25:50.280 --> 25:53.480] I don't think it's going to work nearly as well this time, so that how he re-invences huge [25:53.480 --> 25:55.280] amount of money don't forget. [25:55.280 --> 25:59.280] And how he reinvents himself and what his opponent does, we'll pick up on that point [25:59.280 --> 26:19.800] when we return for this New Year's edition of The World This Week. [28:29.280 --> 28:35.080] In the start of 2012 in style, from London to New York to right here in Paris, we've [28:35.080 --> 28:39.920] got all the party pictures for you. [28:39.920 --> 28:44.240] It's a happy 10th birthday to the Euro, but for the debt prices rocking the Euro's own [28:44.240 --> 28:51.680] to its core, plus the threat of a session, many say there's little to celebrate. [28:51.680 --> 28:55.920] And the head of the Senate in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been attacked here [28:55.920 --> 29:03.360] in Paris, he's been hospitalized after being sat upon at a train station garden norm. [29:03.360 --> 29:07.840] So those of the latest headlines welcome to France Bank Cats, I'm Louise Hannah. [29:07.840 --> 29:11.520] Millions of people around the world have been welcoming in the New Year with fireworks [29:11.520 --> 29:14.600] and parties and even a few celebrities. [29:14.600 --> 29:20.080] In New York pop div at Lady Gaga, a Mayor Michael Bloomberg hit the switch, sending the [29:20.080 --> 29:24.080] cities a famous crystal ball on its countdown drop. [29:24.080 --> 29:29.240] London paid homage to the 2012 Olympics at a post, kicking off its fireworks display [29:29.240 --> 29:32.680] with a recording of the moment it learned it would host the games. [29:32.680 --> 29:37.920] While here in Paris, revelers popped champagne corks at midnight along the famed Charles [29:37.920 --> 29:42.760] and Lise, all got themselves to a rooftop, when they could see the uncle tell us shimmer [29:42.760 --> 29:48.040] in pink golden lights. [29:48.040 --> 29:52.120] Another world news, the government of Democratic Republic of Congo has accused opposition [29:52.120 --> 29:57.200] supporters of attacking the president of the Senate in Paris on Saturday night. [29:57.200 --> 30:13.120] Leon at Congo, what don do was set up on at the end.