Detecting language using up to the first 30 seconds. Use `--language` to specify the language Detected language: English [00:00.000 --> 00:02.600] anywhere, and any way you want. [00:02.600 --> 00:04.900] Learn more at Xfinity.com. [00:06.300 --> 00:23.480] Another poll in Iowa shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul leading the Republican field. [00:23.480 --> 00:24.480] Good evening. [00:24.480 --> 00:25.840] I'm Jim Lara. [00:25.840 --> 00:27.200] And I'm Jeffrey Brown. [00:27.200 --> 00:33.280] On the NewsHour tonight, from Des Moines, Judy Woodruff has the latest on the GOP race. [00:33.280 --> 00:39.160] With just three days left until the presidential caucuses, more than a third of Iowa Republicans [00:39.160 --> 00:42.040] say they still don't know whom they'll vote for. [00:42.040 --> 00:47.880] So candidates and their organizations are working overtime to get their supporters out. [00:47.880 --> 00:53.540] Judy talked with five of those undecided Iowans about what will determine their choices on [00:53.540 --> 00:54.540] Tuesday night. [00:54.540 --> 01:00.000] Plus, Mark Shields here and David Brooks in Iowa analyze the week's news. [01:00.000 --> 01:07.280] Then Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago reports on the surprising rise of poverty in the suburban [01:07.280 --> 01:11.760] neighborhoods of one of the nation's wealthiest counties. [01:11.760 --> 01:12.760] It's exploded. [01:12.760 --> 01:18.720] It has gone from something that was rarely encountered in this community to an issue [01:18.720 --> 01:20.880] that we encounter every day. [01:20.880 --> 01:26.080] And RaceWise looks at marriage trends in America, as fewer couples tie the knot, and those [01:26.080 --> 01:29.000] who do are older than ever. [01:29.000 --> 01:32.800] That's all ahead on tonight's NewsHour. [01:32.800 --> 01:38.320] Major funding for the PBS NewsHour has been provided by... 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[02:11.680 --> 02:16.040] The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, working to solve social and environmental problems [02:16.040 --> 02:23.360] at home and around the world, and with the ongoing support of these institutions and [02:23.360 --> 02:34.000] foundations, and this program was made possible by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting [02:34.000 --> 02:44.360] and by contributions to your PBS station from viewers like you, thank you. [02:44.360 --> 02:48.640] Indian presidential candidates spent another long day hunting for votes in Iowa. [02:48.640 --> 02:52.840] They were heading into the final weekend before the presidential election season officially [02:52.840 --> 02:57.200] opens with Tuesday night's caucuses. [02:57.200 --> 03:02.320] The weather turned colder and windy, but Mitt Romney warmed to his audience as another new [03:02.320 --> 03:06.720] poll, this one from NBC Marist, showed him pacing the field. [03:06.720 --> 03:12.480] If you can get out here in this cold and this wind and a little bit of rain coming down, [03:12.480 --> 03:16.240] then you can sure get out on Tuesday night and you can sure find a few people to bring [03:16.240 --> 03:17.240] with you. [03:17.240 --> 03:22.120] One key supporter showed up today, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, campaigning with [03:22.120 --> 03:23.760] Romney in West Des Moines. [03:23.760 --> 03:26.000] It really energizes me, the young people. [03:26.000 --> 03:32.280] Texas Congressman Ron Paul was either tied for first or a close second, but 41 percent [03:32.280 --> 03:37.920] in the NBC poll said his libertarian leanings make him unacceptable. [03:37.920 --> 03:42.680] Newt Gingrich had been the Iowa front-runner just a few weeks back, but has fallen far [03:42.680 --> 03:43.680] behind. [03:43.680 --> 03:48.480] In Des Moines today, remembering his late mother's mental health problems, he grew emotional. [03:48.480 --> 03:57.040] My whole emphasis on brain science comes indirectly from dealing with, see how you have me emotional, [03:57.040 --> 04:03.360] from dealing with, you know, the real problems of real people in my family. [04:03.360 --> 04:06.760] And so it's not a theory, it's, in fact, you know, my mother. [04:06.760 --> 04:09.340] This is very personal for me. [04:09.340 --> 04:12.240] It's not just political, it's not just public. [04:12.240 --> 04:18.240] The moment recalled Hillary Clinton's emotional moment just before the 2008 Democratic primary [04:18.240 --> 04:19.560] in New Hampshire. [04:19.560 --> 04:21.560] She went on to win there. [04:21.560 --> 04:26.800] Back in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum continued pressing to add to [04:26.800 --> 04:28.080] his late surge. [04:28.080 --> 04:31.200] He's now running third. [04:31.200 --> 04:36.200] Another former front-runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, was running fourth or fifth, depending [04:36.200 --> 04:39.600] on the poll. [04:39.600 --> 04:44.920] And Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman, who lost two top staffers this week, was trailing [04:44.920 --> 04:45.920] the field. [04:45.920 --> 04:51.720] She discounted the low turnout at a meet-and-greet event in early Iowa this afternoon. [04:51.720 --> 04:54.120] Our effort wasn't to bring crowds out. [04:54.120 --> 04:55.320] We were just dropping in. [04:55.320 --> 04:59.320] As the weekend arrived, the race in Iowa remained fluid. [04:59.320 --> 05:04.440] Many likely caucus-goers said they were still deciding on which candidate to support come [05:04.440 --> 05:05.440] Tuesday. [05:05.440 --> 05:09.920] Judy Woodruff is in Iowa, reporting for us through the voting next Tuesday night. [05:09.920 --> 05:13.480] I spoke with her a short time ago in Des Moines. [05:13.480 --> 05:17.360] So, Judy, for a long time, it seemed Mitt Romney wasn't going to fight that hard in [05:17.360 --> 05:19.080] Iowa, but no more, right? [05:19.080 --> 05:20.080] SEN. [05:20.080 --> 05:21.080] CHUCK SCHUMER, The New York Times. [05:21.080 --> 05:22.080] Well, that's right, Jeff. [05:22.080 --> 05:23.080] It looks that way. [05:23.080 --> 05:26.600] The first thing we need to say is, what a large number of undecided voters there still [05:26.600 --> 05:27.600] are in Iowa. [05:27.600 --> 05:29.560] And you will hear a little bit more about that in a minute when you see the interview [05:29.560 --> 05:31.800] I did with some voters last night. [05:31.800 --> 05:33.600] But having said that, you are right. [05:33.600 --> 05:39.920] Mitt Romney, on top in two of the most recent polls, right at around 25 percent, that seems [05:39.920 --> 05:42.360] to be so far a ceiling for him. [05:42.360 --> 05:47.760] That's the same percentage of the vote Mitt Romney had four years ago when he lost, because, [05:47.760 --> 05:52.720] at that point, the conservative vote in Iowa was coalescing around one candidate, Mike [05:52.720 --> 05:53.720] Huckabee. [05:53.720 --> 05:59.840] This time, the conservative vote is looking around a spread among four or five different [05:59.840 --> 06:00.840] candidates. [06:00.840 --> 06:02.840] That's working to Mitt Romney's advantage. [06:02.840 --> 06:07.800] And, Jeff, I should say, right hot on his heels are Ron Paul, the libertarian, attracting [06:07.800 --> 06:13.080] a lot of younger voters, and, as you also mentioned, Rick Santorum, stressing his Christian [06:13.080 --> 06:18.400] conservative views, and maybe all that work that Rick Santorum has put into Iowa may be [06:18.400 --> 06:19.400] paying off. [06:19.400 --> 06:23.480] Well, tell me about Ron Paul, speaking of Ron Paul, you were at an event of his last [06:23.480 --> 06:24.480] night. [06:24.480 --> 06:25.480] Now, what did you see? [06:25.480 --> 06:27.040] Where is the support coming from? [06:27.040 --> 06:34.080] It is coming from there, it's traditional that a chunk of Iowa, the Iowa Republican [06:34.080 --> 06:41.400] vote tends to be libertarian, and, of course, that is Ron Paul's philosophy, so that it's, [06:41.400 --> 06:44.280] a lot of it is young people, college students. [06:44.280 --> 06:48.920] You go to a college campus, you talk to many of them, they're very excited about Ron Paul. [06:48.920 --> 06:52.440] His vote is very enthusiastic, it's loyal. [06:52.440 --> 06:53.880] They are going to turn out. [06:53.880 --> 06:59.280] The question is, how large are they, because there's a sizable percentage of Iowa Republicans [06:59.280 --> 07:04.160] who say they could never vote for Ron Paul, because they don't like his foreign policy. [07:04.160 --> 07:06.360] But he is going to get a significant turnout. [07:06.360 --> 07:10.280] He's got students in the state who have come in from other parts of the country who are [07:10.280 --> 07:16.320] working for him, even though, I should say, Jeff, Ron Paul himself is going home to Texas [07:16.320 --> 07:19.080] for the weekend to celebrate New Year's Eve with his family. [07:19.080 --> 07:25.160] Now, beyond it getting cold, what about atmospherics, if I can use that word? [07:25.160 --> 07:29.120] What's your sense there of how worked up people are? [07:29.120 --> 07:34.040] What are the campaigns going through as they go into the real crunch time? [07:34.040 --> 07:37.200] Well, they're all gearing up. [07:37.200 --> 07:38.960] We ran in this morning at a hotel. [07:38.960 --> 07:44.560] We ran into a name that's, I think, familiar to many of our viewers, Joe Albaugh, who was [07:44.560 --> 07:49.840] President George W. Bush's head of FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Administration. [07:49.840 --> 07:53.560] He's working for Rick Perry, organizing the state. [07:53.560 --> 07:57.960] And the way he put it today, he said, he said, at this stage of the game, you've identified [07:57.960 --> 07:58.960] your supporters. [07:58.960 --> 07:59.960] It's all mechanics. [07:59.960 --> 08:04.320] It's getting those people out, the people who liked you from the beginning, the people [08:04.320 --> 08:06.200] who are still undecided. [08:06.200 --> 08:11.000] The Romney campaign, working the state very hard, they say they've got, they said, you've [08:11.000 --> 08:13.400] only seen about 10 percent of what we're doing. [08:13.400 --> 08:15.640] Ninety percent of it's been underground. [08:15.640 --> 08:16.960] We're getting people out. [08:16.960 --> 08:19.400] You ask about enthusiasm everywhere you go. [08:19.400 --> 08:23.120] Even Democrats will tell you they're excited to see Iowa getting attention. [08:23.120 --> 08:26.560] They're excited to see the press here, even if they don't like any of these candidates [08:26.560 --> 08:30.200] and they don't plan to vote for them in November. [08:30.200 --> 08:32.120] These caucuses are still a big deal. [08:32.120 --> 08:35.280] So we expect a lot of attention on Tuesday night. [08:35.280 --> 08:36.280] All right. [08:36.280 --> 08:39.560] Judy Woodruff is in Des Moines, and we'll be there through Tuesday night. [08:39.560 --> 08:41.760] Thanks a lot, Judy. [08:41.760 --> 08:42.760] Thank you. [08:42.760 --> 08:47.760] Here we come on the NewsHour tonight, Iowa voters still making up their minds, Shields [08:47.760 --> 08:55.000] and Brooks, poverty in the suburbs, and the decline in Americans marrying. [08:55.000 --> 08:56.960] But first, the other news of this day. [08:56.960 --> 08:58.960] Here's Hari Sreenivasan. [08:58.960 --> 09:03.120] An outpouring of anti-government protesters filled cities across Syria today. [09:03.120 --> 09:06.200] It marked a new challenge to President Bashar al-Assad. [09:06.200 --> 09:12.000] The opposition reported as many as 250,000 people turned out in both Idlib and Hama, [09:12.000 --> 09:16.240] and there were many thousands more in Homs, Douma, and Daraa. [09:16.240 --> 09:19.080] Protesters said troops gunned down at least 22 people. [09:19.080 --> 09:23.280] We have a report narrated by Andy Davies of Independent Television News. [09:23.280 --> 09:27.840] Homs, in the northwest of Syria this morning. [09:27.840 --> 09:32.200] Some are now calling this the martyr city, given the numbers killed here in recent months. [09:32.200 --> 09:36.720] In front of the camera reads the message, this is the Friday for marching towards the [09:36.720 --> 09:38.920] squares of freedom. [09:38.920 --> 09:44.240] And so they did, gathering in their thousands in the city's main square, significantly [09:44.240 --> 09:48.640] for the first time in months. [09:48.640 --> 09:57.800] In towns across Syria, the opposition movement rallied its support base following Friday [09:57.800 --> 09:58.800] prayers. [09:58.800 --> 10:04.160] Hundreds of thousands reportedly took to the streets, emboldened perhaps by the recent [10:04.160 --> 10:08.700] arrival of yellow-vested Arab League monitors in the country. [10:08.700 --> 10:26.240] This intended as a statement to those observers, regime violence will not quell this uprising. [10:26.240 --> 10:29.240] This footage was apparently recorded today in Douma. [10:29.240 --> 10:33.280] It's just six miles from the center of the capital, Damascus. [10:33.280 --> 10:37.600] It's not clear what caused this particular explosion, but opposition activists alleged [10:37.600 --> 10:45.320] Syrian security forces had thrown nail bombs into the crowd. [10:45.320 --> 10:48.120] There was violence documented also in the city of Hama. [10:48.120 --> 10:52.560] Five were shot dead here today, alleged one activist. [10:52.560 --> 10:58.920] A fortnight ago, the United Nations estimated that more than 5,000 have been killed by Syrian [10:58.920 --> 11:02.360] security forces since the uprising began. [11:02.360 --> 11:05.880] One influential campaign group says it's now more than 6,000. [11:05.880 --> 11:11.960] It's a figure disputed by the government and again today by its media. [11:11.960 --> 11:16.680] This reporter claims he's tracked down a number of people who were supposedly killed by security [11:16.680 --> 11:18.320] forces. [11:18.320 --> 11:23.680] State-run TV was broadcasting today live from the center of Damascus and other cities. [11:23.680 --> 11:27.820] They were showing rallies in support of al-Assad's regime. [11:27.820 --> 11:31.480] In Pakistan today, at least nine people were killed on a car bomb exploded in the city [11:31.480 --> 11:35.040] of Quetta outside the home of a local politician. [11:35.040 --> 11:38.560] Many television showed video of victims being rushed to a nearby hospital. [11:38.560 --> 11:40.960] More than 20 people were wounded there. [11:40.960 --> 11:45.380] Spain has imposed new austerity measures, including a temporary tax hike to raise almost [11:45.380 --> 11:46.840] $8 billion. [11:46.840 --> 11:49.320] The two-year increase would affect the wealthy. [11:49.320 --> 11:54.280] The newly elected center-right government also announced more than $11 billion in spending [11:54.280 --> 11:55.440] cuts today. [11:55.440 --> 11:59.120] These are all part of efforts to rein in the country's growing debt. [11:59.120 --> 12:03.000] Wall Street stumbled on the last trading day of the year with nothing to give the market [12:03.000 --> 12:04.000] much of a boost. [12:04.000 --> 12:08.880] The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 69 points to close at 12,217. [12:08.880 --> 12:12.160] The Nasdaq fell 8 points to close at 2605. [12:12.160 --> 12:18.180] For the year, the Dow gained 5 percent, 5.5 percent, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 2 percent. [12:18.180 --> 12:22.840] The Standard and Poor's 500 finished the year down less than a tenth of a point. [12:22.840 --> 12:26.760] Two NASA satellites are set to start orbiting the moon over New Year's weekend. [12:26.760 --> 12:31.200] The probes were launched in September as part of the GRAIL mission for Gravity Recovery [12:31.200 --> 12:33.080] and Interior Laboratory. [12:33.080 --> 12:35.560] Each satellite is about the size of a washing machine. [12:35.560 --> 12:39.320] There to fly in tandem to map the moon's gravitational field. [12:39.320 --> 12:43.480] That data could reveal the moon's interior and how it formed. [12:43.480 --> 12:44.880] Those are some of today's major stories. [12:44.880 --> 12:46.600] Now back to Jim. [12:46.600 --> 12:49.120] And we return to Iowa. [12:49.120 --> 12:55.940] Last evening, Judy Woodruff spoke with five still undecided voters, all registered Republicans. [12:55.940 --> 13:01.960] They were selected with the help of civic and educational organizations in Iowa. [13:01.960 --> 13:05.600] Thank you all for joining us and to Jim Carley for hosting us in your home. [13:05.600 --> 13:06.600] You're welcome. [13:06.600 --> 13:09.800] As you look at the country, how do you think things are going overall? [13:09.800 --> 13:13.360] I think we're going in the wrong direction. [13:13.360 --> 13:20.520] I think that there needs to be a 360 turnaround to where we're going now with the economy. [13:20.520 --> 13:24.240] And I think also our world standing has declined. [13:24.240 --> 13:28.280] We read that the Iowa economy is doing pretty well, Jim. [13:28.280 --> 13:35.040] Your unemployment rate overall is pretty good, but you still have a pretty negative view [13:35.040 --> 13:36.040] about the economy. [13:36.040 --> 13:37.040] Is that right? [13:37.040 --> 13:39.280] Well, my wife and I, we're both retired. [13:39.280 --> 13:43.400] We have our pensions, but we also have investments, which took a pretty big hit. [13:43.400 --> 13:45.920] And it's the uncertainty of what's going to happen. [13:45.920 --> 13:51.580] We're doing fine now, but when it's not doing anything to get better and Congress can't [13:51.580 --> 13:56.480] agree on what day of the week it is, how are we ever going to get anything solved? [13:56.480 --> 13:59.520] So we are quite concerned about the future and what's going to happen there. [13:59.520 --> 14:00.920] BJ, what about for you? [14:00.920 --> 14:05.960] I mean, personally, how do you think things are going for you, for your family? [14:05.960 --> 14:10.360] Right now things are a little bit better, but we've had some tough times. [14:10.360 --> 14:13.240] When I say that, I've never clipped a coupon in my life. [14:13.240 --> 14:17.380] And now I take the Sunday paper not to read the news, but to go through the coupons and [14:17.380 --> 14:18.380] see what's in there. [14:18.380 --> 14:22.560] And I may only save $5, but I'm so excited about that $5. [14:22.560 --> 14:23.560] And Dave, what about you? [14:23.560 --> 14:28.320] Well, I, personally, being self-employed, being in the car business, I've been pretty [14:28.320 --> 14:29.320] affected by it. [14:29.320 --> 14:31.640] I think a lot of the small dealers have been hurt. [14:31.640 --> 14:37.080] The impending crisis with the no lending and people are unsure of how to spend their money [14:37.080 --> 14:42.180] or when to spend their money or if they should spend their money, I think that's put a hurt [14:42.180 --> 14:43.180] on everybody. [14:43.180 --> 14:46.240] People just don't have the money to spend it right now. [14:46.240 --> 14:50.120] And if we can get the economy going, it'll heal all the social problems. [14:50.120 --> 14:52.380] The social problems will all be by themselves. [14:52.380 --> 14:54.240] We just need to get the economy going right now. [14:54.240 --> 15:00.200] Sam, how do you see the importance of this election and how closely have you been following [15:00.200 --> 15:01.200] it? [15:01.200 --> 15:02.800] I've been following it very closely. [15:02.800 --> 15:06.700] I've been lucky enough to shake the hand of every presidential candidate and look them [15:06.700 --> 15:10.120] in the eye, which I think says a lot about being in Iowa. [15:10.120 --> 15:14.000] And you can also learn a lot from that exchange. [15:14.000 --> 15:19.160] I think this election is really going to be a referendum on some really important issues [15:19.160 --> 15:20.160] to this country. [15:20.160 --> 15:26.120] I think spending, how to balance the budget, the national debt, all those issues are really [15:26.120 --> 15:28.440] going to be decided by this election. [15:28.440 --> 15:32.640] And the American people are going to have to decide what solutions we want to go about [15:32.640 --> 15:34.400] to solve those problems. [15:34.400 --> 15:36.840] BJ, what do you think right now? [15:36.840 --> 15:37.840] Where are you leaning? [15:37.840 --> 15:40.840] The caucuses are just a few days away. [15:40.840 --> 15:44.380] I'm leaning toward Newt Gingrich. [15:44.380 --> 15:49.840] I've been leaning that way for a while because I think he's authentic. [15:49.840 --> 15:57.400] He has success working with the opposite party. [15:57.400 --> 16:00.360] And he seems to have a vision for the future. [16:00.360 --> 16:05.160] Is there anybody else you're thinking about other than Gingrich at this point? [16:05.160 --> 16:11.640] I really like Michelle Bachmann because if you want to know the truth, I'd like to see [16:11.640 --> 16:17.240] any man, and I suppose this is a feminist perspective, I'd like to see any man start [16:17.240 --> 16:23.640] a business, go to school, raise five children, and have 23 foster children. [16:23.640 --> 16:25.680] I don't think a man could do that. [16:25.680 --> 16:28.320] So I think she runs circles around them. [16:28.320 --> 16:30.480] And I like what she stands for. [16:30.480 --> 16:32.400] So she's a good multitasker. [16:32.400 --> 16:33.920] Sam, what about you? [16:33.920 --> 16:37.640] Yeah, it seems to me with a lot of these candidates, I'm leaning away. [16:37.640 --> 16:43.080] And so I think two candidates that I'm leaning towards would be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. [16:43.080 --> 16:49.480] I think looking at the records, Mitt Romney's been a turnaround artist his entire career, [16:49.480 --> 16:53.000] and I think that he could do a really great job turning around the economy. [16:53.000 --> 16:55.800] And then Ron Paul really speaks to me as a young person. [16:55.800 --> 17:01.560] He's got a great youth following, and I really like a lot of his libertarian stances. [17:01.560 --> 17:03.520] What about you, Jim? [17:03.520 --> 17:04.760] Where are you leaning right now? [17:04.760 --> 17:09.800] Well, if I vote principles, which I'm really leaning at just recently here, things have [17:09.800 --> 17:14.440] happened, and I'm standing for that would put me in Rick Santorum's camp. [17:14.440 --> 17:17.360] I like the principles that he has. [17:17.360 --> 17:20.000] I think that's where a lot of our problem is. [17:20.000 --> 17:22.320] We don't have virtuous and moral leaders. [17:22.320 --> 17:23.680] Victoria, what about you? [17:23.680 --> 17:27.680] Where is your head right now, or heart, or both? [17:27.680 --> 17:28.680] It really is a struggle. [17:28.680 --> 17:30.400] You know, I'm just being honest. [17:30.400 --> 17:31.400] I don't know. [17:31.400 --> 17:32.400] I don't have that. [17:32.400 --> 17:36.800] It was so funny, because for Huckabee, I was like, yes, this is my guy. [17:36.800 --> 17:37.800] I want him. [17:37.800 --> 17:39.000] You know, I'm going to go out. [17:39.000 --> 17:40.000] It was freezing. [17:40.000 --> 17:44.040] It was snow and ice, horrible the last time. [17:44.040 --> 17:47.880] I don't feel that for any candidate right now, and that scares me. [17:47.880 --> 17:52.160] So that's why I'm just not loyal to any one person at this point. [17:52.160 --> 17:53.680] Dave, what about you? [17:53.680 --> 17:56.640] How are you leaning right now? [17:56.640 --> 18:00.200] We have a couple candidates I think should have came to Iowa, should have campaigned [18:00.200 --> 18:01.200] here. [18:01.200 --> 18:02.960] I think Mr. Huntsman's one of them. [18:02.960 --> 18:05.000] He should have thrown his hat in the ring. [18:05.000 --> 18:10.520] He says a lot of good things, but whichever candidate is selected, we need to get behind [18:10.520 --> 18:14.240] the candidate and beat Obama in 2012. [18:14.240 --> 18:15.800] Jim, what about that? [18:15.800 --> 18:18.840] Because it sounds like you're saying something a little bit different from what Dave is saying. [18:18.840 --> 18:24.200] I don't think we need to go into the polls with the only thing on our mind is who can [18:24.200 --> 18:25.400] beat him. [18:25.400 --> 18:31.360] There's still 10 months to go before the election, and one of those down the bottom may be the [18:31.360 --> 18:36.280] rising star in actuality once they get out into the rest of the nation. [18:36.280 --> 18:38.520] And so I think we need to pick a good candidate. [18:38.520 --> 18:41.400] I favor one that has good principles that I can trust. [18:41.400 --> 18:42.400] Santorum. [18:42.400 --> 18:43.880] Santorum, right. [18:43.880 --> 18:47.680] But I think part of the problem that we have in this, I've never seen this many people [18:47.680 --> 18:52.400] so undecided this late in the game, and I think a lot of that has to do with the massive [18:52.400 --> 18:56.920] number of debates that we've had and the forum that the debates have had to where people [18:56.920 --> 18:58.120] are attacking each other. [18:58.120 --> 18:59.640] I mean, we're attacking our own. [18:59.640 --> 19:03.800] Anybody else on why it's so hard to make a decision this time? [19:03.800 --> 19:08.800] I mean, you've touched on the fact that it is hard, but any thoughts about why? [19:08.800 --> 19:09.800] B.J.? [19:09.800 --> 19:14.560] Mitt Romney cannot get past a certain level. [19:14.560 --> 19:18.400] And he couldn't go up against Huckabee last time, although he spent gobs and gobs and [19:18.400 --> 19:19.960] gobs of money. [19:19.960 --> 19:24.280] And to me, Mitt Romney is the status quo in the Republican Party. [19:24.280 --> 19:28.560] And I think a lot of us, I don't know how many of us are Tea Partiers or Libertarians, [19:28.560 --> 19:31.080] we're dissatisfied with the status quo of the Republican Party. [19:31.080 --> 19:33.960] And that's what Mitt Romney represents. [19:33.960 --> 19:38.880] So I think that's why there's the fight, not the infighting, but the turmoil in our [19:38.880 --> 19:39.880] party. [19:39.880 --> 19:40.880] Sam, what do you say to that? [19:40.880 --> 19:44.200] Because you said Romney was somebody you could support. [19:44.200 --> 19:46.080] In fact, you mentioned him first. [19:46.080 --> 19:51.200] Yeah, I think that Mitt Romney really brings a lot to the table. [19:51.200 --> 19:54.920] And if you look at him against Newt Gingrich, I mean, I don't mean to get candidate versus [19:54.920 --> 20:00.280] candidate here, but Newt Gingrich has really been the textbook Washington insider for the [20:00.280 --> 20:02.760] last 40 years. [20:02.760 --> 20:07.560] And so I don't know if I'm comfortable having that background in the White House. [20:07.560 --> 20:09.840] Mitt Romney, he's not a true conservative. [20:09.840 --> 20:12.800] And we talk about being enthusiastic. [20:12.800 --> 20:14.680] Conservatives cannot get enthusiastic about him. [20:14.680 --> 20:18.680] And that's why I think that there's that vacuum. [20:18.680 --> 20:21.680] What about that, Jim, because I think you're the one who said a few minutes ago, we need [20:21.680 --> 20:24.560] somebody who's going to stick with their principles. [20:24.560 --> 20:25.560] That's right. [20:25.560 --> 20:32.680] And my fear with Romney, why I don't like him, is I believe government should be small. [20:32.680 --> 20:34.480] Smaller government, less cost. [20:34.480 --> 20:37.600] People are responsible and they take care of themselves. [20:37.600 --> 20:41.080] My feeling is anybody that wants to institute health care, and I know they have a state [20:41.080 --> 20:44.800] constitution that says they can, but that's somebody that wants big government. [20:44.800 --> 20:47.040] Romney, I mean, he's a nice guy. [20:47.040 --> 20:48.040] He's polished. [20:48.040 --> 20:50.760] He's back for a second time around. [20:50.760 --> 20:57.560] But he's just not the person who I will get up in a snowstorm to vote for. [20:57.560 --> 21:00.280] Some of you have mentioned Santorum. [21:00.280 --> 21:03.920] Let me ask you, Sam, why didn't you bring up Rick Santorum? [21:03.920 --> 21:08.640] Well, I think my problem with Rick Santorum, as well as some of the other maybe more socially [21:08.640 --> 21:12.720] conservative candidates, is I think they dwell too much on social issues. [21:12.720 --> 21:17.920] And while they might pass a credential check as far as their economic policies go, I just [21:17.920 --> 21:18.960] don't think their people... [21:18.960 --> 21:24.640] I think they alienate moderate voters and independents, and while they might excite [21:24.640 --> 21:28.760] the base, I just don't see them doing well at all in a general election. [21:28.760 --> 21:30.720] When do you think you're going to make up your mind? [21:30.720 --> 21:31.720] Probably Tuesday. [21:31.720 --> 21:36.360] I'll have her done by Sunday, and then I'll think about it. [21:36.360 --> 21:40.860] Well, we appreciate all of you talking with us about these caucuses. [21:40.860 --> 21:42.920] Thank you very much. [21:42.920 --> 21:43.920] Thank you. [21:43.920 --> 21:44.920] You're very welcome. [21:44.920 --> 21:46.560] Thanks for having us. [21:46.560 --> 21:53.040] For the record, Texas Governor Rick Perry's name didn't come up in Judy's discussion. [21:53.040 --> 21:57.480] As we heard in Judy's conversation, four years ago, it was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee [21:57.480 --> 22:02.360] who beat Mitt Romney and all others to win the Iowa Republican caucus. [22:02.360 --> 22:07.080] His success came with the strong support of conservative evangelical Christians. [22:07.080 --> 22:11.840] Tonight's edition of Need to Know explores the power of the religious right in Iowa. [22:11.840 --> 22:14.800] This excerpt looks at the influence of one man in particular. [22:14.800 --> 22:18.320] The correspondent is Rick Carr. [22:18.320 --> 22:22.640] Bob Vander Plaats was chairman of Mike Huckabee's Iowa campaign in 2008. [22:22.640 --> 22:27.160] Then he led a campaign against three state Supreme Court justices who ruled in favor [22:27.160 --> 22:31.400] of gay marriage and ended up driving them out of office. [22:31.400 --> 22:37.120] Now he runs an advocacy group for social conservatives called the Family Leader, and Fox News calls [22:37.120 --> 22:39.400] him a kingmaker in Iowa. [22:39.400 --> 22:44.000] The Los Angeles Times wrote that meeting with you is a prerequisite for any candidate who [22:44.000 --> 22:45.640] wants to compete in Iowa. [22:45.640 --> 22:46.760] Is that true? [22:46.760 --> 22:52.120] I don't know if it's a prerequisite to meet with me, but I believe it's the issues that [22:52.120 --> 22:55.440] our organization represents. [22:55.440 --> 23:01.960] And our supporters are very, very sincere about these issues. [23:01.960 --> 23:07.000] They're very interested in who's going to champion these issues. [23:07.000 --> 23:09.380] Our supporters are going to show up on caucus night. [23:09.380 --> 23:13.720] In November, the Family Leader hosted a forum for GOP hopefuls. [23:13.720 --> 23:19.040] We don't need you to be Republican or Democrat, but we need you to be biblical. [23:19.040 --> 23:24.520] And the candidates lined up to tout their fealty to socially conservative positions. [23:24.520 --> 23:31.120] The left is prepared to impose intolerance and to drive out of existence traditional [23:31.120 --> 23:32.120] religion. [23:32.120 --> 23:33.720] They slammed abortion rights. [23:33.720 --> 23:37.560] I have supported the amendment that defines life at conception. [23:37.560 --> 23:44.260] As long as abortion is legal, at least according to the Supreme Court, legal in this country, [23:44.260 --> 23:45.720] we will never have rest. [23:45.720 --> 23:46.720] Gay marriage. [23:46.720 --> 23:51.240] The family is defined as one man, one woman. [23:51.240 --> 23:53.500] No other definition will do. [23:53.500 --> 23:55.520] And what they call Obamacare. [23:55.520 --> 24:00.680] Obamacare has to go because it's trying to tell us how to deliver health care in our [24:00.680 --> 24:01.680] states. [24:01.680 --> 24:06.760] The candidates came because conservative evangelical voters are organized and motivated. [24:06.760 --> 24:09.100] They turn up on caucus night. [24:09.100 --> 24:13.360] And endorsements from socially conservative groups like the Family Leader could turn one [24:13.360 --> 24:16.760] of them into the Mike Huckabee of the current campaign. [24:16.760 --> 24:20.840] But Vander Plaats says none of them ended up stealing the hearts of Iowa's conservative [24:20.840 --> 24:22.640] evangelicals. [24:22.640 --> 24:27.200] We had six candidates in our Thanksgiving family forum, and I think it was my wife afterwards [24:27.200 --> 24:31.720] who said, you know, Bob, if we could take those six and put them in a blender and just [24:31.720 --> 24:34.960] have the strengths come out and have one candidate, and I said, darling, you're getting awfully [24:34.960 --> 24:40.680] close to cloning, but we would have a perfect candidate. [24:40.680 --> 24:44.040] And I think what we're realizing today, there is no perfect candidate. [24:44.040 --> 24:49.360] A postscript, Bob Vander Plaats ended up endorsing Rick Santorum. [24:49.360 --> 24:52.960] There were published reports last week that Vander Plaats sought up to a million dollars [24:52.960 --> 24:57.200] for his endorsement, allegations he vigorously denied. [24:57.200 --> 25:08.040] Need to Know airs on most PBS stations tonight. [25:08.040 --> 25:13.360] And to the analysis of Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York [25:13.360 --> 25:15.760] Times columnist David Brooks. [25:15.760 --> 25:21.960] David from Iowa, do you have a big picture portrait of the setting, the scene there tonight? [25:21.960 --> 25:25.040] Well, there are some human interest stories. [25:25.040 --> 25:28.040] I got to see Newt Gingrich cry today, something I'd never seen before. [25:28.040 --> 25:31.640] He was asked some very personal questions about his life, and he talked about how he's [25:31.640 --> 25:34.040] sadder and slower than he used to be. [25:34.040 --> 25:38.080] And then he was asked about his mom, and his face just dissolved in tears. [25:38.080 --> 25:40.040] And you know, the candidates are very tired. [25:40.040 --> 25:41.040] Gingrich's numbers are falling. [25:41.040 --> 25:42.560] They're under a lot of pressure. [25:42.560 --> 25:44.600] And so you got to see that human element. [25:44.600 --> 25:48.680] The big thing that comes from all the different campaigns is a sense of looking backward. [25:48.680 --> 25:52.840] There's a theme in almost every single race, which is America has lost something that it [25:52.840 --> 25:54.040] once had. [25:54.040 --> 25:55.400] And so we have to look backward. [25:55.400 --> 25:59.000] It's about restoration, restoring old values we've strayed. [25:59.000 --> 26:03.520] And this is a theme, which is sort of a negative and pessimistic theme, an almost apocalyptic [26:03.520 --> 26:09.400] theme that one finds in Mitt Romney, one finds it in Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul. [26:09.400 --> 26:12.280] It's all about we had this magic, and we've lost it. [26:12.280 --> 26:15.640] How do you see the big picture, Mark? [26:15.640 --> 26:20.300] I think the point David made is one worth repeating, and that is American campaigns [26:20.300 --> 26:21.900] are about the future. [26:21.900 --> 26:25.640] And this campaign has really been an awful lot about the past. [26:25.640 --> 26:30.680] And it's kind of fascinating to see, it felt like Rick Santorum really vaulted from nowhere [26:30.680 --> 26:36.080] after campaigning 99 counties, doing the classic meeting voters and so forth. [26:36.080 --> 26:39.640] But absent from his message that I get is any upbeat. [26:39.640 --> 26:44.160] I mean, there's sort of a gloom and doom to it. [26:44.160 --> 26:49.800] But I think, Jim, this has been a remarkable race at separate times during this year. [26:49.800 --> 26:53.280] Six different candidates have led in the polls in Iowa. [26:53.280 --> 27:00.160] So it's up for grabs, and it's very much Tuesday will determine who goes forward. [27:00.160 --> 27:06.840] I mean, some candidacies will end just outside of the Des Moines Airport on Wednesday voting. [27:06.840 --> 27:09.800] All right, let's talk about Romney for a moment, beginning with you, David. [27:09.800 --> 27:14.240] How do you read the situation on Romney right now, where he stands and what his prospects [27:14.240 --> 27:15.960] are in Iowa? [27:15.960 --> 27:18.400] Yeah, he's exuding confidence. [27:18.400 --> 27:20.120] I think his people are exuding confidence. [27:20.120 --> 27:22.840] I went to a rally this morning in the rain. [27:22.840 --> 27:26.200] And he was with Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey. [27:26.200 --> 27:30.560] And it was just a smooth, effective, not too long, but sort of a corporate race. [27:30.560 --> 27:33.480] It was like George Bush in year 2000. [27:33.480 --> 27:35.840] And what's interesting is the tactic it's taking. [27:35.840 --> 27:37.280] It's very short on policy. [27:37.280 --> 27:39.440] It's very long on patriotism. [27:39.440 --> 27:43.080] He talks about driving across the country looking at the national parks. [27:43.080 --> 27:47.480] He talks, he sings or at least recites some verses from the Star-Spangled Banner. [27:47.480 --> 27:49.840] It's as if he's running to be Tom Sawyer. [27:49.840 --> 27:54.800] And I think it's a way to establish a connection with voters, even despite questions they may [27:54.800 --> 27:56.520] have about Mormonism or anything else. [27:56.520 --> 28:01.100] I think it's a way to distinguish in his eyes between him and Barack Obama. [28:01.100 --> 28:02.560] He's more mainstream. [28:02.560 --> 28:07.920] And then again, this theme of returning, as posing as Tom Sawyer, he's returning to some [28:07.920 --> 28:09.880] earlier values. [28:09.880 --> 28:11.320] And you know, that may play this year. [28:11.320 --> 28:13.040] Mark is absolutely right. [28:13.040 --> 28:15.480] Rick Santorum and a lot of the candidates are very negative. [28:15.480 --> 28:18.840] The guy who won it four years ago, Mike Huckabee, very positive. [28:18.840 --> 28:21.560] But the mood here has darkened appreciably. [28:21.560 --> 28:25.400] And maybe they're in tune with what the voters are hearing right now. [28:25.400 --> 28:30.000] But Mark, you heard what Judy said, that her feeling was that the polls show that there's [28:30.000 --> 28:33.460] a cap, that cap is still there for Romney. [28:33.460 --> 28:39.520] It's working to his advantage because everybody else is so split up, right? [28:39.520 --> 28:40.520] That's right, Jim. [28:40.520 --> 28:46.120] They've been able to consolidate, for example, the religious conservative vote, although [28:46.120 --> 28:49.360] it seems that Rick Santorum has made great inroads there. [28:49.360 --> 28:52.960] But no, there seems to be a ceiling on Mitt Romney. [28:52.960 --> 28:58.640] It was kind of fascinating at the beginning of the month of December in the Gallup poll, [28:58.640 --> 29:04.920] he trailed Newt Gingrich at 37 to 23, you know, 14 point deficit. [29:04.920 --> 29:08.240] He now leads Newt Gingrich 27 to 22. [29:08.240 --> 29:09.240] All right. [29:09.240 --> 29:11.960] It means Gingrich has plummeted and all the rest of it. [29:11.960 --> 29:12.960] Romney has just moved up, though. [29:12.960 --> 29:16.360] I mean, he just broke the 25 point barrier. [29:16.360 --> 29:20.160] I think what Romney's campaign has been about is not so great expectations. [29:20.160 --> 29:25.120] I mean, they've lowered the, tried to lower the expectations in Iowa all year. [29:25.120 --> 29:26.120] But David's right. [29:26.120 --> 29:32.000] I think there's a sense now that they could win in Iowa, or even if Ron Paul wins, that's [29:32.000 --> 29:35.080] not the worst thing in the world to them, they feel, in the long run. [29:35.080 --> 29:42.220] But if they, the knockout punch in both Iowa and New Hampshire would do for him, the Romney [29:42.220 --> 29:47.920] people feel, what it did for George W. Bush in 2000, when he sewed up the Republican nomination [29:47.920 --> 29:58.360] essentially, and in 2000, I'm sorry, in 2004, when John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire. [29:58.360 --> 30:02.360] John, of course, in 2000, he lost to John McCain in New Hampshire. [30:02.360 --> 30:05.200] But that one-two punch is really formidable. [30:05.200 --> 30:06.200] All right. [30:06.200 --> 30:11.240] Now, about Ron Paul, David, as Mark just said, Ron Paul's up there. [30:11.240 --> 30:13.560] And what is that going to mean? [30:13.560 --> 30:18.200] If you don't say he wins, that's one thing, but even if he comes in a close second, what's [30:18.200 --> 30:22.760] it going to mean for the race generally, for Ron Paul to do that well in Iowa? [30:22.760 --> 30:27.280] Well, the thing the Romney people like is their two main rivals right now are Ron Paul [30:27.280 --> 30:29.040] and Rick Santorum. [30:29.040 --> 30:33.240] People think Gingrich's campaign might have legs or Rick Perry's campaign might have legs, [30:33.240 --> 30:36.600] but I don't think they're too worried about Santorum and Paul having legs. [30:36.600 --> 30:41.320] So having rivals like that is good for the Romney camp. [30:41.320 --> 30:45.560] The Paul people are young, they're organized, they're very diverse. [30:45.560 --> 30:50.400] There are some veterans, some older people, a lot of students, a lot of gold bugs, some [30:50.400 --> 30:52.040] people who want drug legalization. [30:52.040 --> 30:55.440] It's about as diverse a group of people as you can possibly imagine. [30:55.440 --> 31:00.200] And there's a supposition that Paul, like Santorum, probably is under polling, that [31:00.200 --> 31:04.200] there are more people and they're more mobilized, both in the libertarian camp and the social [31:04.200 --> 31:05.560] conservative camp. [31:05.560 --> 31:09.880] And so historically, people in those camps have done a little better than the final polls. [31:09.880 --> 31:12.680] So there's upside for him. [31:12.680 --> 31:17.360] And he, it's funny, the way he campaigns, he campaigns like the audience isn't there. [31:17.360 --> 31:21.640] He gives his talks, whether they're applauding, not listening, not, he's going to tell you [31:21.640 --> 31:22.640] what he thinks. [31:22.640 --> 31:26.400] But it's, there's no real superstar. [31:26.400 --> 31:30.680] There's no stump superstar who really can galvanize a crowd among this group the way [31:30.680 --> 31:34.520] Huckabee did, the way John Edwards did, the way Barack Obama did. [31:34.520 --> 31:39.000] As a series of stump performers, I would say it's a below average year, and Paul, doing [31:39.000 --> 31:41.760] very well, is certainly not raising that average. [31:41.760 --> 31:46.520] How do you account for Santorum's surge? [31:46.520 --> 31:48.320] Just a quick thing on that, Paul. [31:48.320 --> 31:53.380] The word in 2008, remember, authenticity, Ron Paul exudes authenticity. [31:53.380 --> 31:55.360] He says the same thing wherever he goes. [31:55.360 --> 31:56.360] Others trim, they pander. [31:56.360 --> 31:57.360] You may not like it, but he says the same thing. [31:57.360 --> 32:02.600] No, they play to the crowd, you know, what do you want to hear, you know, Ron Paul is [32:02.600 --> 32:03.600] just the opposite. [32:03.600 --> 32:09.120] And he has, and he has, unlike Santorum and even Gingrich at this point, he has money [32:09.120 --> 32:12.880] and the ability to raise money in small contributions from a lot of different people. [32:12.880 --> 32:14.920] But Santorum's been saying the same thing, too. [32:14.920 --> 32:16.280] Santorum, Santorum has been. [32:16.280 --> 32:17.280] Santorum has been. [32:17.280 --> 32:18.280] In his own way, I mean. [32:18.280 --> 32:19.280] In his own way. [32:19.280 --> 32:24.680] He has sounded the themes that have been the credo of modern conservatism, strong, muscular [32:24.680 --> 32:32.840] foreign policy, social, religious conservatives, and economic fiscal conservatism. [32:32.840 --> 32:38.680] And I think, you know, I think that there's a sense in Iowa that he's worked for it. [32:38.680 --> 32:40.760] He's visited the 99 counties. [32:40.760 --> 32:43.400] He's done it the retail way. [32:43.400 --> 32:48.920] He's listened to the hairdressers and the auto mechanics. [32:48.920 --> 32:51.720] And I think that there is a connection point. [32:51.720 --> 32:55.760] And especially now with the religious and social conservatives, I think he's caught [32:55.760 --> 32:56.760] on. [32:56.760 --> 32:57.760] And that the others have fallen on the wayside. [32:57.760 --> 32:58.760] So hey, here, Santorum. [32:58.760 --> 33:01.280] Well, he never had the moment in the sun. [33:01.280 --> 33:03.280] I mean, the others were all Icarus. [33:03.280 --> 33:05.760] I mean, they got close to the sun and then boom. [33:05.760 --> 33:06.760] Boom, boom. [33:06.760 --> 33:09.400] How do you read Santorum, David? [33:09.400 --> 33:14.080] Yeah, to me, this is less about the candidates and their personalities and more about just [33:14.080 --> 33:17.000] raw demographics and philosophy. [33:17.000 --> 33:20.320] Year after year, there are a lot of social conservatives in this state. [33:20.320 --> 33:24.360] And this goes back to the time many elections ago when Pat Robertson did well here, let [33:24.360 --> 33:25.640] alone Mike Huckabee. [33:25.640 --> 33:27.700] And those social conservatives have always been here. [33:27.700 --> 33:30.160] And they're going to vote for a social conservative candidate. [33:30.160 --> 33:33.680] And Santorum's, you know, homeschooler, he homeschools his kids. [33:33.680 --> 33:37.120] He's genuinely of the community, even though he is Catholic. [33:37.120 --> 33:38.680] And so they're going to go for that guy. [33:38.680 --> 33:42.720] There are genuinely a lot of libertarians among the voters here, and they're going to [33:42.720 --> 33:43.720] go for Ron Paul. [33:43.720 --> 33:46.520] And whether they perform well or not is almost beside the point. [33:46.520 --> 33:49.920] At this point, those people are going to express their point of view. [33:49.920 --> 33:51.840] And so they're just a lot of those voters in this state. [33:51.840 --> 33:54.200] Let's go back to Gingrich for a moment, David. [33:54.200 --> 33:56.280] You said you saw him cry today. [33:56.280 --> 34:00.920] He his polls show that he has really dropped. [34:00.920 --> 34:01.920] And why? [34:01.920 --> 34:07.280] And does he have a chance of coming out of Iowa in any way that could give him leg? [34:07.280 --> 34:10.200] You said there's a possibility of legs for Gingrich. [34:10.200 --> 34:11.200] Why? [34:11.200 --> 34:14.920] I asked you three questions and one, sorry about that. [34:14.920 --> 34:15.920] Yeah. [34:15.920 --> 34:18.800] Well, he's a candidate who has a long reputation. [34:18.800 --> 34:19.800] And he's pretty good. [34:19.800 --> 34:20.800] You know, I saw him today on the stump. [34:20.800 --> 34:23.200] And he gives good answers that get applause going. [34:23.200 --> 34:26.240] He's just a polished political performer. [34:26.240 --> 34:31.880] The reason he's falling primarily is that there's a lot of ads on TV these days in Iowa. [34:31.880 --> 34:34.600] And 47 percent of them are being run against Newt Gingrich. [34:34.600 --> 34:36.600] There's just a ton of negative ads. [34:36.600 --> 34:40.400] And he's got a lot that he's freely admits he's he's vulnerable for. [34:40.400 --> 34:42.320] And so people are learning about the divorces. [34:42.320 --> 34:46.600] They're learning about the Freddie Mac lobbying and they're just not happy. [34:46.600 --> 34:47.600] It's funny to watch him. [34:47.600 --> 34:52.640] I happened to run into him in a hotel lobby last night and he was ebullient and very self-aware, [34:52.640 --> 34:56.840] very different sort of Newt Gingrich, a little more mature than I'd seen him, very aware [34:56.840 --> 34:58.460] of his problems and his possibilities. [34:58.460 --> 35:05.080] And then today, the emotional moment, I wouldn't bet on him rebounding, but he is someone who [35:05.080 --> 35:07.120] still can debate extremely well. [35:07.120 --> 35:10.800] And that argument that he uses time and time again, who do you want to see debating Barack [35:10.800 --> 35:11.800] Obama? [35:11.800 --> 35:12.880] That is one that resonates. [35:12.880 --> 35:15.920] So I wouldn't totally count him out, but I certainly wouldn't bet money on him. [35:15.920 --> 35:17.880] You wouldn't either, would you? [35:17.880 --> 35:24.160] I think I'm probably less bullish on Newt Gingrich's ability to bounce back than David. [35:24.160 --> 35:30.120] In 1996, after he lost, Bob Dole said he said, I was told that people did not like negative [35:30.120 --> 35:31.120] ads. [35:31.120 --> 35:32.120] I didn't run any. [35:32.120 --> 35:33.120] I lost. [35:33.120 --> 35:35.360] And I think we're seeing that with Newt Gingrich. [35:35.360 --> 35:44.480] I mean, David mentioned that 45, 47 percent of all the ads bought in Iowa in 2011 have [35:44.480 --> 35:46.320] been against Newt Gingrich. [35:46.320 --> 35:51.640] I mean, that leaves 55 percent for anybody else positive. [35:51.640 --> 35:56.920] Perhaps the most effective was Ron Paul's, which was the serial hypocrisy ad. [35:56.920 --> 35:58.560] So I think it's tough. [35:58.560 --> 36:01.240] There's an awful lot that has come back to him. [36:01.240 --> 36:07.600] I think probably the Freddie Mac has really hurt him, with conservatives in general, [36:07.600 --> 36:09.600] and the historian explanation. [36:09.600 --> 36:14.120] Secondly, was really his appearing with Nancy Pelosi in that public service announcement [36:14.120 --> 36:15.120] on climate change. [36:15.120 --> 36:16.520] He never was able to put that behind him. [36:16.520 --> 36:18.680] No, he really hasn't. [36:18.680 --> 36:24.400] On Iowa generally, both of you, beginning with you, David, should Iowa matter as much [36:24.400 --> 36:26.440] as it appears to at this point? [36:26.440 --> 36:30.160] I mean, as we're getting, we're talking about it, the whole world is talking about it right [36:30.160 --> 36:31.160] now. [36:31.160 --> 36:37.400] Is this, is this the way to choose candidates for president of the United States by going [36:37.400 --> 36:39.000] starting with Iowa? [36:39.000 --> 36:40.760] Yeah, I still think so. [36:40.760 --> 36:44.680] I still, this is still my favorite place to cover a political race. [36:44.680 --> 36:45.720] It's not the way it used to be. [36:45.720 --> 36:50.600] It's not just George H.W. Bush driving around in a station wagon with one aide and maybe [36:50.600 --> 36:51.680] a press person. [36:51.680 --> 36:56.520] Now there's clumps of people, there's big buses, but it's still, it's more retail. [36:56.520 --> 36:58.840] The people are really run through their paces. [36:58.840 --> 37:02.120] Rick Perry tried, couldn't make it here. [37:02.120 --> 37:05.280] Michelle Bachman, we saw what happened to her among voters here. [37:05.280 --> 37:07.640] It is, I think it's still a good testing ground. [37:07.640 --> 37:10.160] Is it the most representative state in the country? [37:10.160 --> 37:14.440] Maybe not, but I still think it's a practiced, knowledgeable electorate who are very good [37:14.440 --> 37:17.200] at putting candidates through the ordeal of running. [37:17.200 --> 37:21.360] And I do think it's a legitimate way to screen out candidates and give a couple a chance [37:21.360 --> 37:22.360] to move on. [37:22.360 --> 37:23.360] You agree with that, don't you? [37:23.360 --> 37:24.360] I do, Jim. [37:24.360 --> 37:30.240] I mean, Iowa is unrepresentative, it has the fourth highest literacy rate of the 50 states. [37:30.240 --> 37:32.200] It has the third lowest divorce rate. [37:32.200 --> 37:36.960] It has the sixth highest high school graduation rate, higher than the coastal smug states [37:36.960 --> 37:44.960] of Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, you know, [37:44.960 --> 37:47.560] and the people take it quite seriously. [37:47.560 --> 37:51.640] And I always feel better after I've been in Iowa and I will feel better after Tuesday [37:51.640 --> 37:52.640] night again. [37:52.640 --> 37:53.640] Okay. [37:53.640 --> 37:54.640] Thank you. [37:54.640 --> 38:03.360] Thank you both very much. [38:03.360 --> 38:06.400] Now two stories about the changing portrait of America. [38:06.400 --> 38:09.720] First, a different kind of life in the suburbs. [38:09.720 --> 38:15.200] Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people living below the poverty line in U.S. suburbs [38:15.200 --> 38:20.640] increased by more than 50 percent, a trend that accelerated during the recession. [38:20.640 --> 38:25.600] It's happening in places that have long been middle class as well as in richer neighborhoods. [38:25.600 --> 38:31.680] Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago has our story. [38:31.680 --> 38:36.560] DuPage County, Illinois is one of the wealthiest counties in the country. [38:36.560 --> 38:41.520] Comfortable homes sit on tree-lined streets in the suburb of Wheaton, eight miles west [38:41.520 --> 38:43.280] of Chicago. [38:43.280 --> 38:47.600] Upscale restaurants and shops line the historic downtown. [38:47.600 --> 38:52.900] But there is another side to DuPage County, one that would have been unthinkable a few [38:52.900 --> 38:54.760] years ago. [38:54.760 --> 39:00.760] It includes packed food pantries and crowds at the county welfare office. [39:00.760 --> 39:06.440] Candace King coordinates human services in DuPage County, and she has watched poverty [39:06.440 --> 39:08.080] grow. [39:08.080 --> 39:09.620] It's exploded. [39:09.620 --> 39:15.720] In the 16 years that I've been in my job, it has gone from something that was rarely [39:15.720 --> 39:21.920] encountered in this community, and certainly no one thought it was here, to an issue that [39:21.920 --> 39:23.960] we encounter every day. [39:23.960 --> 39:30.680] Over the last 20 years, poverty in DuPage County has grown by 185 percent. [39:30.680 --> 39:35.800] Nearly 60,000 people here live in poverty, defined by the federal government as earning [39:35.800 --> 39:41.200] $22,350 a year for a family of four. [39:41.200 --> 39:45.880] And now a Brookings Institute analysis of census data finds that for the first time [39:45.880 --> 39:53.620] in the Chicago area, there are more people in poverty in the suburbs than in the city. [39:53.620 --> 39:59.360] In this Wheaton housing complex, 11 of the town homes are in foreclosure. [39:59.360 --> 40:05.760] After almost two years of trying, 43-year-old Katherine Aravosis was finally able to renegotiate [40:05.760 --> 40:08.760] her mortgage and save her home. [40:08.760 --> 40:13.520] But she and her two children live far below the poverty line. [40:13.520 --> 40:16.080] Aravosis had a middle-class upbringing. [40:16.080 --> 40:22.560] Her father was a college professor, and in 2008, she got her second master's degree, [40:22.560 --> 40:25.540] this one in elementary education. [40:25.540 --> 40:30.800] But because of cuts in state education funding, she hasn't been able to find a full-time [40:30.800 --> 40:32.800] teaching job. [40:32.800 --> 40:39.560] This year, she made $11,000 as a substitute teacher, far less than what she needs to support [40:39.560 --> 40:40.560] her two children. [40:40.560 --> 40:48.880] It has been hard for me because I want to provide for them in a way my parents provided [40:48.880 --> 40:49.880] for me. [40:49.880 --> 40:54.080] I never knew what my parents made. [40:54.080 --> 40:59.440] I never had to worry about a thing. [40:59.440 --> 41:07.120] We just lived a really stable, typical middle-class existence. [41:07.120 --> 41:12.000] And for my children, they don't have that sense of security that I had. [41:12.000 --> 41:17.240] They know when I'm stressed, and that hurts. [41:17.240 --> 41:23.180] Aravosis is part of the newly poor demographic that accounts for much of the rise in poverty [41:23.180 --> 41:25.240] in the suburbs. [41:25.240 --> 41:30.660] Ten years ago, she and her husband, an architect, were earning a six-figure income and living [41:30.660 --> 41:33.640] in a five-bedroom home in Wheaton. [41:33.640 --> 41:36.160] They divorced in 2004. [41:36.160 --> 41:41.640] Her former husband's architectural commissions dried up in 2008, and he has had trouble making [41:41.640 --> 41:44.000] child support payments. [41:44.000 --> 41:48.760] Aravosis tried to get Medicaid for her children, but the state threatened to take her former [41:48.760 --> 41:55.200] husband's architect license because of lack of child support, and she backed off. [41:55.200 --> 41:58.880] It's those days when you get up and you really don't know what you're going to give your [41:58.880 --> 42:01.480] kids for dinner. [42:01.480 --> 42:07.680] And it can be a full-time job, finding out how am I going to get glasses for prescription [42:07.680 --> 42:13.280] as a year old, and where am I going to, you know, how do I go and get her the shots she [42:13.280 --> 42:14.280] needs? [42:14.280 --> 42:20.640] She's going to sixth grade, not having the health insurance, not having the basic things [42:20.640 --> 42:26.800] that people take for granted, being able to get their kid to the doctor. [42:26.800 --> 42:31.600] You know, when they come home and say, we need $5 for school, there's always something. [42:31.600 --> 42:35.720] And sometimes you have to say, I don't have it. [42:35.720 --> 42:37.840] I just don't have it. [42:37.840 --> 42:38.840] I'm sorry. [42:38.840 --> 42:42.560] Today, dinner comes from the local food pantry. [42:42.560 --> 42:49.320] She cooks in her crock pot or microwave, since she can't afford to repair her broken stove. [42:49.320 --> 42:55.680] Like many of the suburban poor, Aravosa's never thought she would need help buying food. [42:55.680 --> 43:01.040] I didn't expect to be using the food pantry, especially not on a regular basis. [43:01.040 --> 43:08.080] But you know, I'm working, and I'm not making enough money to make ends meet. [43:08.080 --> 43:13.280] So it's very humbling, but I swallowed my pride, and I went to the People's Resource [43:13.280 --> 43:15.000] Center and I asked for help. [43:15.000 --> 43:17.880] OK, I have to have pumpkin, right? [43:17.880 --> 43:23.440] Aravosa's can fill up a shopping cart once a week at the People's Resource Center. [43:23.440 --> 43:28.840] The number of people using this food pantry in Wheaton has gone up by 200 percent in the [43:28.840 --> 43:30.760] last five years. [43:30.760 --> 43:34.240] There was a 30 percent jump in 2008 alone. [43:34.240 --> 43:36.160] Make sure all the cart handles are clean. [43:36.160 --> 43:42.000] The Resource Center's program director, Melissa Travis, says many of their clients are new [43:42.000 --> 43:43.000] to poverty. [43:43.000 --> 43:47.160] Oftentimes, the first time they come, they break into tears, because they can't imagine [43:47.160 --> 43:49.840] that they would ever need help in a way like this. [43:49.840 --> 43:53.440] They've been people that have paid taxes, they're people that have volunteered and helped [43:53.440 --> 43:58.480] in places like this in the past, and now suddenly they have to go and seek out that assistance. [43:58.480 --> 44:01.360] So we give a lot of hugs. [44:01.360 --> 44:05.560] Mary Kay Hop could have used a hug the day she came to the food pantry. [44:05.560 --> 44:10.120] A registered nurse, Hop has been out of work for several years. [44:10.120 --> 44:14.720] She grew up in Wheaton and enjoyed a far different lifestyle. [44:14.720 --> 44:16.320] My dad had a good job. [44:16.320 --> 44:20.680] We had the big house and the cars and all those other things, you know, new wardrobe [44:20.680 --> 44:24.080] for school when that time of the year came around. [44:24.080 --> 44:30.880] I think that I'm one of the people who didn't have to go without much, and yeah, it's a [44:30.880 --> 44:33.880] whole flip side of that. [44:33.880 --> 44:39.040] Three months of unemployment brought Mariano Menendez and his family to the food pantry [44:39.040 --> 44:40.880] for the first time. [44:40.880 --> 44:43.480] Did you think you'd ever wind up coming to a food pantry for the first time? [44:43.480 --> 44:45.720] No, no, of course not, never, never. [44:45.720 --> 44:53.840] I've had good jobs, I've made good income, I've never had my wildest dreams, so yeah, [44:53.840 --> 44:56.520] I'm definitely very grateful for this. [44:56.520 --> 45:00.640] It's an amazing, amazing service that they offer here. [45:00.640 --> 45:06.120] Their dramatic increase in poverty in suburban DuPage County mirrors the increase in poverty [45:06.120 --> 45:09.040] in suburban areas across the country. [45:09.040 --> 45:14.360] That leaves human service agencies struggling to meet the needs in their communities. [45:14.360 --> 45:21.200] Yet federal, state, and local funding still goes disproportionately to urban areas. [45:21.200 --> 45:26.360] That lack of federal and state resources to fight suburban poverty leaves existing agencies [45:26.360 --> 45:28.360] overwhelmed. [45:28.360 --> 45:34.160] All of the growth in poverty in the state of Illinois has been in the suburban area. [45:34.160 --> 45:42.160] My organization did an analysis of federal funding and some state funding and private [45:42.160 --> 45:47.920] philanthropic funding and found that the city of Chicago is getting up to four and [45:47.920 --> 45:52.880] five times more per poor person than DuPage County is. [45:52.880 --> 45:57.000] That is not news to Melissa Travis at the People's Resource Center. [45:57.000 --> 46:01.240] We are stretched, about six weeks ago the food pantry was as empty as I've ever seen [46:01.240 --> 46:03.400] it in six and a half years. [46:03.400 --> 46:07.760] We were trying to get through to our next delivery and just hoping that we had enough [46:07.760 --> 46:10.400] food to give everybody what they needed. [46:10.400 --> 46:13.080] It's been a devastating year in that regard. [46:13.080 --> 46:18.280] Unlike many of the newly poor who have a hard time finding the resources that are available, [46:18.280 --> 46:22.440] Catherine Erivozes has taken advantage of all the programs at the People's Resource [46:22.440 --> 46:23.800] Center. [46:23.800 --> 46:28.240] She has gotten clothes for herself and her kids and used the job counselors in her effort [46:28.240 --> 46:31.000] to find a full-time teaching job. [46:31.000 --> 46:35.720] But having to accept help has changed the way she thinks of herself. [46:35.720 --> 46:37.440] I always thought of myself as middle class. [46:37.440 --> 46:39.460] I had a middle class upbringing. [46:39.460 --> 46:47.640] I had middle class expectations, but the reality is that I'm not living a middle class lifestyle [46:47.640 --> 46:48.640] anymore. [46:48.640 --> 46:51.400] So no, I don't think so. [46:51.400 --> 46:55.880] I think I've fallen out of the middle class. [46:55.880 --> 47:00.600] Like many in her situation, she doesn't see much hope of things improving. [47:00.600 --> 47:06.400] And while she wants to stay in Wheaton, life in Suburbia is far different than she ever [47:06.400 --> 47:16.480] imagined it would be. [47:16.480 --> 47:22.080] And finally tonight, our second story on the shifting trends in American life. [47:22.080 --> 47:25.760] This one's about the changing demographics of marriage. [47:25.760 --> 47:28.720] Ray Suarez has our conversation. [47:28.720 --> 47:34.320] For decades, the fact that a sizable majority of Americans were married shaped our politics, [47:34.320 --> 47:39.080] where we lived, where we worked, and what we thought when we heard the word family. [47:39.080 --> 47:45.000] Recently, the Pew Research Center took a look at all of us over 18 and found just 51 percent [47:45.000 --> 47:49.440] are married, down from more than 70 percent in 1960. [47:49.440 --> 47:53.640] Stephanie Koontz has been chronicling the changes in American marriage for a long time. [47:53.640 --> 47:57.840] She teaches history and family studies at Evergreen State College in Washington and [47:57.840 --> 48:01.720] is director of research at the Council on Contemporary Families. [48:01.720 --> 48:02.960] Professor Koontz, welcome. [48:02.960 --> 48:09.520] We moved in 50 years from almost three quarters of married adults to barely half. [48:09.520 --> 48:10.520] What happened? [48:10.520 --> 48:11.520] What's pushing those numbers? [48:11.520 --> 48:16.880] Well, one of the things that you have to bear in mind is that 1960 was probably the most [48:16.880 --> 48:20.120] atypical year in 150 years. [48:20.120 --> 48:24.440] The age of marriage was at an all-time low, half of all women were married before they [48:24.440 --> 48:28.940] got out of their teens, and the rate of marriage was at an all-time high. [48:28.940 --> 48:33.740] So what's happened since then, primarily what's driving this, is the rise in the age of marriage. [48:33.740 --> 48:38.840] It's now up to 26 for women and 28 for men. [48:38.840 --> 48:42.960] And that's actually a good thing, because the longer a woman delays marriage, right [48:42.960 --> 48:46.660] up into her early 30s, the lower her chances of divorce. [48:46.660 --> 48:51.640] But it does totally change the social weight of married households in our economy, our [48:51.640 --> 48:53.560] society, our politics. [48:53.560 --> 48:58.600] But not only has the age at first marriage risen, which of course that's just math, it [48:58.600 --> 49:01.520] makes a smaller number of adults married. [49:01.520 --> 49:05.440] But the number of people who have ever been married has also declined. [49:05.440 --> 49:10.320] Has marriage moved from being sort of culturally mandatory to more optional? [49:10.320 --> 49:14.240] Well, it's definitely moved to being more optional. [49:14.240 --> 49:18.680] That does not mean, though, that it's not just as valued, in fact, even more valued [49:18.680 --> 49:19.840] than it used to be. [49:19.840 --> 49:23.480] And it doesn't mean that the majority of Americans will not marry. [49:23.480 --> 49:29.340] I think that probably we're going into a situation where a slightly larger number of people will [49:29.340 --> 49:35.760] never marry than in the past, maybe 15 percent, as opposed to 10 percent norm and 5 percent [49:35.760 --> 49:38.040] in the atypical 1950s. [49:38.040 --> 49:43.000] And of course we also have some people who will live alone after divorcing. [49:43.000 --> 49:46.880] But on the other hand, people are marrying for the first time in their 40s, 50s, and [49:46.880 --> 49:50.580] 60s at younger, at older ages than ever before. [49:50.580 --> 49:55.200] So for me, the main thing that I think we're facing here is that you can no longer assume [49:55.200 --> 50:01.240] that married couple households are going to be the main places where people make the major [50:01.240 --> 50:08.080] life decisions, whether that's entering into becoming sexually active, buying a house, [50:08.080 --> 50:12.240] entering long-term obligations, living with somebody that is a romantic partner, even [50:12.240 --> 50:13.760] having a child out of marriage. [50:13.760 --> 50:18.160] So we can no longer assume that married couple households are the only place where people [50:18.160 --> 50:22.600] incur obligations, make commitments, and need help in meeting their obligations. [50:22.600 --> 50:28.720] Well, you've talked about these big life moments, but have they responded to the fact that marriage [50:28.720 --> 50:31.480] has changed in this way over the last 50 years? [50:31.480 --> 50:37.040] Our tax laws, the way we build houses, the way we award property in courts, all kinds [50:37.040 --> 50:40.120] of things are still built around marriage. [50:40.120 --> 50:42.040] Absolutely, absolutely. [50:42.040 --> 50:45.880] Just look at work-family policies that just assume that it's only married couples who [50:45.880 --> 50:52.440] are going to have children, or just ignore the fact that singles also have responsibility [50:52.440 --> 50:53.960] for aging parents. [50:53.960 --> 50:59.640] There are so many ways in which we are still acting as though American families were like [50:59.640 --> 51:04.120] 1950s sitcoms, instead of the tremendous diversity. [51:04.120 --> 51:08.880] Most people will marry in America, but most people will spend substantial portions of [51:08.880 --> 51:10.840] their adult life outside marriage. [51:10.840 --> 51:13.080] It's a more fluid situation than it used to be. [51:13.080 --> 51:14.080] They'll move through. [51:14.080 --> 51:15.680] They may cohabit for a while. [51:15.680 --> 51:16.880] They may get married. [51:16.880 --> 51:18.760] They may get divorced. [51:18.760 --> 51:23.600] So these are the sorts of things that our social policy and even our emotional expectations [51:23.600 --> 51:27.240] of family life have to catch up with these changing realities. [51:27.240 --> 51:30.520] Along with the long-term trends, there are some short-term ones, too. [51:30.520 --> 51:33.440] The number of newlyweds is way down. [51:33.440 --> 51:39.520] Is that going to push that 50 percent threshold down so that married people are a minority [51:39.520 --> 51:42.200] of American adults? [51:42.200 --> 51:43.200] It may. [51:43.200 --> 51:47.200] It depends how long this recession and the aftermath of the recession lasts. [51:47.200 --> 51:53.000] This is a long-term trend, the decline in the proportion of married couples in the population. [51:53.000 --> 51:56.520] But it's been definitely, I think, exacerbated by the recession. [51:56.520 --> 52:00.920] But on the other hand, we may see some bounce back after that, as we have in previous recessions [52:00.920 --> 52:03.180] and depressions when the marriage rate fell. [52:03.180 --> 52:11.120] How is who gets married shaped by income, education, factors like that? [52:11.120 --> 52:18.440] Well, one of the things we're seeing is a tremendous class divide in the access to stable, [52:18.440 --> 52:23.120] satisfying relationships, whether married or cohabiting. [52:23.120 --> 52:27.560] And the marriages of college-educated couples have been getting more and more stable. [52:27.560 --> 52:29.540] The divorce rates have been falling. [52:29.540 --> 52:34.960] But that's not so for high school dropouts and even increasingly for high school-educated [52:34.960 --> 52:36.480] couples. [52:36.480 --> 52:41.680] It seems that one of the issues going on here is that we expect more of marriage than ever [52:41.680 --> 52:46.840] before, both as an economic partnership and as an emotional partnership. [52:46.840 --> 52:54.800] And as it becomes possible or less possible to count on a man having a steady job, the [52:54.800 --> 53:00.920] real wages of high school graduates today are $4 an hour lower in constant dollars than [53:00.920 --> 53:02.240] they were back in 1970. [53:02.240 --> 53:07.360] They're much more likely to experience job insecurity, much less likely to have pensions. [53:07.360 --> 53:12.840] So a woman, a low-income woman, making a decision about marrying such a man has to figure out, [53:12.840 --> 53:17.400] well, what are the benefits of this as compared to the possibility that we might divorce in [53:17.400 --> 53:22.560] the future or as compared to what would happen if I invested in my own education and earnings [53:22.560 --> 53:23.760] power? [53:23.760 --> 53:27.040] And so I do think we're seeing a class divide that's quite troublesome. [53:27.040 --> 53:31.740] I think that it partly reflects growing economic inequality in our society, but of course it [53:31.740 --> 53:33.960] exacerbates it as well. [53:33.960 --> 53:37.200] Stephanie Koontz, thanks for joining us. [53:37.200 --> 53:38.200] My pleasure, Ray. [53:38.200 --> 53:46.080] Thank you. [53:46.080 --> 53:48.520] And again, the major developments of the day. [53:48.520 --> 53:52.120] Republican presidential candidates spent another long day hunting for votes, going into the [53:52.120 --> 53:55.080] final weekend before the Iowa caucuses. [53:55.080 --> 53:58.920] Another poll showed Mitt Romney and Ron Paul atop the field. [53:58.920 --> 54:02.480] And an outpouring of protesters filled cities across Syria. [54:02.480 --> 54:04.760] And government troops opened fire again. [54:04.760 --> 54:08.520] The opposition said at least 22 people were killed. [54:08.520 --> 54:11.240] And to Hari Sreenivasan for what's on the NewsHour online. [54:11.240 --> 54:12.240] Hari? [54:12.240 --> 54:16.060] There's much more on the coming Iowa caucuses, including Gwen Ifill's take on why the early [54:16.060 --> 54:19.920] contests matter and what some Republican voters want from the candidates. [54:19.920 --> 54:25.000] And Patchwork Nation's look at some GOP hopefuls betting big on sparsely populated counties [54:25.000 --> 54:26.000] in Iowa. [54:26.000 --> 54:29.600] Plus, on the rundown, view a slideshow of some of the biggest news stories of 2011 in [54:29.600 --> 54:31.600] the U.S. and around the world. [54:31.600 --> 54:35.560] All that and more is on our website, NewsHour.PBS.org, Jeff. [54:35.560 --> 54:37.000] And that's the NewsHour for tonight. [54:37.000 --> 54:42.680] On Monday, we'll look at the fallout in Egypt after the military raided U.S.-backed organizations. [54:42.680 --> 54:44.240] I'm Jeffrey Brown. [54:44.240 --> 54:45.440] And I'm Jim Lara. [54:45.440 --> 54:49.920] Washington Week can be seen later this evening on most PBS stations. [54:49.920 --> 54:52.840] We'll see you online and again here Monday evening. [54:52.840 --> 54:55.480] Have a nice New Year's holiday weekend. [54:55.480 --> 54:56.480] Thank you and good night. 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