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[00:16.400 --> 00:20.800]  Another poll in Iowa shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul
[00:20.800 --> 00:23.200]  leading the Republican field.
[00:23.200 --> 00:25.500]  Good evening, I'm Jim Lara.
[00:25.500 --> 00:26.900]  And I'm Jeffrey Brown.
[00:26.900 --> 00:28.300]  On the NewsHour tonight,
[00:28.300 --> 00:33.000]  from Des Moines, Judy Woodruff has the latest on the GOP race.
[00:33.000 --> 00:36.800]  With just three days left until the presidential caucuses,
[00:36.800 --> 00:41.800]  more than a third of Iowa Republicans say they still don't know whom they'll vote for.
[00:41.800 --> 00:47.600]  So candidates and their organizations are working overtime to get their supporters out.
[00:47.600 --> 00:51.300]  Judy talked with five of those undecided Iowans
[00:51.300 --> 00:54.700]  about what will determine their choices on Tuesday night.
[00:54.700 --> 00:59.800]  Plus Mark Shields here and David Brooks in Iowa analyzed the week's news.
[00:59.800 --> 01:03.400]  Then Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago
[01:03.400 --> 01:06.400]  reports on the surprising rise of poverty
[01:06.400 --> 01:11.600]  in the suburban neighborhoods of one of the nation's wealthiest counties.
[01:11.600 --> 01:12.500]  It's exploded.
[01:12.500 --> 01:17.600]  It has gone from something that was rarely encountered in this community
[01:17.600 --> 01:20.600]  to an issue that we encounter every day.
[01:20.600 --> 01:23.700]  And RaceWise looks at marriage trends in America
[01:23.700 --> 01:28.800]  as fewer couples tie the knot and those who do are older than ever.
[01:28.800 --> 01:32.500]  That's all ahead on tonight's NewsHour.
[01:32.500 --> 01:37.800]  Major funding for the PBS NewsHour has been provided by
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[02:43.800 --> 02:48.600]  Republican presidential candidates spent another long day hunting for votes in Iowa.
[02:48.600 --> 02:50.500]  They were heading into the final weekend
[02:50.500 --> 02:57.200]  before the presidential election season officially opens with Tuesday night's caucuses.
[02:57.200 --> 03:01.700]  The weather turned colder and windy, but Mitt Romney warmed to his audience
[03:01.700 --> 03:07.700]  as another new poll, this one from NBC Marist, showed him pacing the field.
[03:07.700 --> 03:12.400]  If you can get out here in this cold and this wind and a little bit of rain coming down,
[03:12.400 --> 03:14.200]  then you can sure get out on Tuesday night
[03:14.200 --> 03:17.000]  and you can sure find a few people to bring with you.
[03:17.000 --> 03:21.400]  One key supporter showed up today, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie,
[03:21.400 --> 03:23.800]  campaigning with Romney in West Des Moines.
[03:23.800 --> 03:26.100]  It really energizes me, the young people.
[03:26.100 --> 03:31.100]  Texas Congressman Ron Paul was either tied for first or a close second,
[03:31.100 --> 03:37.900]  but 41 percent in the NBC poll said his libertarian leanings make him unacceptable.
[03:37.900 --> 03:41.300]  Newt Gingrich had been the Iowa frontrunner just a few weeks back,
[03:41.300 --> 03:44.400]  but has fallen far behind in Des Moines today,
[03:44.400 --> 03:48.400]  remembering his late mother's mental health problems, he grew emotional.
[03:48.400 --> 03:55.200]  And my whole emphasis on brain science comes in directly from dealing with,
[03:55.200 --> 03:59.200]  see how you have emotion, from dealing with, you know,
[03:59.200 --> 04:03.300]  the real problems of real people in my family.
[04:03.300 --> 04:06.900]  And so it's not a theory, it's in fact, you know, my mother.
[04:06.900 --> 04:09.200]  This is very personal for me.
[04:09.200 --> 04:12.200]  It's not just political, it's not just public.
[04:12.200 --> 04:15.400]  The moment recalled Hillary Clinton's emotional moment
[04:15.400 --> 04:19.400]  just before the 2008 Democratic primary in New Hampshire.
[04:19.400 --> 04:21.400]  She went on to win there.
[04:21.400 --> 04:25.300]  Back in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
[04:25.300 --> 04:28.400]  continued pressing to add to his late surge.
[04:28.400 --> 04:30.900]  He's now running third.
[04:30.900 --> 04:34.200]  Another former frontrunner, Texas Governor Rick Perry,
[04:34.200 --> 04:39.400]  was running fourth or fifth, depending on the poll.
[04:39.400 --> 04:42.200]  And Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman,
[04:42.200 --> 04:46.200]  who lost two top staffers this week, was trailing the field.
[04:46.200 --> 04:49.200]  She discounted the low turnout at a meet-and-greet event
[04:49.200 --> 04:51.200]  in early Iowa this afternoon.
[04:51.200 --> 04:55.200]  I guess our effort wasn't to bring crowds out, we were just dropping in.
[04:55.200 --> 04:59.200]  As the weekend arrived, the race in Iowa remained fluid.
[04:59.200 --> 05:02.200]  Many likely caucus goers said they were still deciding
[05:02.200 --> 05:05.200]  on which candidate to support come Tuesday.
[05:05.200 --> 05:07.700]  Judy Woodruff is in Iowa reporting for us
[05:07.700 --> 05:09.700]  through the voting next Tuesday night.
[05:09.700 --> 05:12.700]  I spoke with her a short time ago in Des Moines.
[05:12.700 --> 05:15.700]  So, Judy, for a long time it seemed Mitt Romney
[05:15.700 --> 05:19.700]  wasn't going to fight that hard in Iowa, but no more, right?
[05:19.700 --> 05:22.200]  Well, that's right, Jeff, it looks that way.
[05:22.200 --> 05:25.700]  The first thing we need to say is what a large number of undecided voters
[05:25.700 --> 05:28.700]  there still are in Iowa, and you'll hear a little bit more about that
[05:28.700 --> 05:31.700]  in a minute when you see the interview I did with some voters last night.
[05:31.700 --> 05:33.700]  But having said that, you are right.
[05:33.700 --> 05:36.700]  Mitt Romney on top in two of the most recent polls.
[05:36.700 --> 05:39.700]  Right at around 25 percent.
[05:39.700 --> 05:41.700]  That seems to be so far a ceiling for him.
[05:41.700 --> 05:45.700]  That's the same percentage of the vote Mitt Romney had four years ago
[05:45.700 --> 05:50.700]  when he lost because at that point the conservative vote in Iowa
[05:50.700 --> 05:53.700]  was coalescing around one candidate, Mike Huckabee.
[05:53.700 --> 05:57.700]  This time the conservative vote is looking around,
[05:57.700 --> 05:59.700]  spread among four or five different candidates.
[05:59.700 --> 06:02.700]  That's working to Mitt Romney's advantage.
[06:02.700 --> 06:05.700]  And Jeff, I should say right hot on his heels are Ron Paul,
[06:05.700 --> 06:08.700]  the libertarian, attracting a lot of younger voters.
[06:08.700 --> 06:11.700]  And as you also mentioned, Rick Santorum,
[06:11.700 --> 06:14.700]  stressing his Christian conservative views
[06:14.700 --> 06:18.700]  and maybe all that work that Rick Santorum has put into Iowa may be paying off.
[06:18.700 --> 06:20.700]  Well, tell me about Ron Paul.
[06:20.700 --> 06:23.700]  Speaking of Ron Paul, you were at an event of his last night.
[06:23.700 --> 06:27.700]  Now, what did you see? Where is the support coming from?
[06:27.700 --> 06:32.700]  It is coming from, it's traditional that a chunk of Iowa,
[06:32.700 --> 06:35.700]  the Iowa Republican vote tends to be libertarian.
[06:35.700 --> 06:39.700]  And of course that is Ron Paul's philosophy.
[06:39.700 --> 06:43.700]  So that it's, a lot of it is young people, college students.
[06:43.700 --> 06:46.700]  You go to a college campus, you talk to many of them.
[06:46.700 --> 06:48.700]  They're very excited about Ron Paul.
[06:48.700 --> 06:51.700]  His vote is very enthusiastic, it's loyal.
[06:51.700 --> 06:53.700]  They are going to turn out.
[06:53.700 --> 06:55.700]  The question is how large are they?
[06:55.700 --> 06:58.700]  Because there's a sizable percentage of Iowa Republicans
[06:58.700 --> 07:01.700]  who say they could never vote for Ron Paul
[07:01.700 --> 07:03.700]  because they don't like his foreign policy.
[07:03.700 --> 07:05.700]  But he is going to get a significant turnout.
[07:05.700 --> 07:09.700]  He's got students in the state who've come in from other parts of the country
[07:09.700 --> 07:11.700]  who are working for him.
[07:11.700 --> 07:15.700]  Even though I should say, Jeff, Ron Paul himself is going home to Texas
[07:15.700 --> 07:18.700]  for the weekend to celebrate New Year's Eve with his family.
[07:18.700 --> 07:24.700]  Now, beyond it getting cold, what about atmospherics, if I can use that word?
[07:24.700 --> 07:28.700]  What's your sense there of how worked up people are?
[07:28.700 --> 07:34.700]  What are the campaigns going through as they go into the real crunch time?
[07:34.700 --> 07:36.700]  Well, they're all gearing up.
[07:36.700 --> 07:38.700]  We ran in this morning at a hotel.
[07:38.700 --> 07:43.700]  We ran into a name that's, I think, familiar to many of our viewers, Joe Albaugh,
[07:43.700 --> 07:47.700]  who was President George W. Bush's head of FEMA,
[07:47.700 --> 07:49.700]  the Federal Emergency Management Administration.
[07:49.700 --> 07:52.700]  He's working for Rick Perry, organizing the state.
[07:52.700 --> 07:55.700]  And the way he put it today, he said,
[07:55.700 --> 07:58.700]  at this stage of the game, you've identified your supporters.
[07:58.700 --> 08:01.700]  It's all mechanics. It's getting those people out,
[08:01.700 --> 08:05.700]  the people who liked you from the beginning, the people who are still undecided.
[08:05.700 --> 08:08.700]  The Romney campaign, working the state very hard,
[08:08.700 --> 08:12.700]  they say you've only seen about 10 percent of what we're doing.
[08:12.700 --> 08:16.700]  Ninety percent of it's been underground. We're getting people out.
[08:16.700 --> 08:18.700]  You ask about enthusiasm everywhere you go.
[08:18.700 --> 08:22.700]  Even Democrats will tell you they're excited to see Iowa getting attention.
[08:22.700 --> 08:24.700]  They're excited to see the press here.
[08:24.700 --> 08:26.700]  Even if they don't like any of these candidates
[08:26.700 --> 08:29.700]  and they don't plan to vote for them in November,
[08:29.700 --> 08:31.700]  these caucuses are still a big deal.
[08:31.700 --> 08:35.700]  So we expect a lot of attention on Tuesday night.
[08:35.700 --> 08:37.700]  All right, Judy Woodruff is in Des Moines,
[08:37.700 --> 08:39.700]  and we'll be there through Tuesday night.
[08:39.700 --> 08:41.700]  Thanks a lot, Judy.
[08:41.700 --> 08:42.700]  Thank you.
[08:42.700 --> 08:44.700]  Still to come on the NewsHour tonight,
[08:44.700 --> 08:47.700]  Iowa voters still making up their minds,
[08:47.700 --> 08:55.700]  about the struggles and brooks, poverty in the suburbs, and the decline in Americans marrying.
[08:55.700 --> 08:57.700]  But first, the other news of this day.
[08:57.700 --> 08:59.700]  Here's Hari Sreenivasan.
[08:59.700 --> 09:03.700]  An outpouring of anti-government protesters filled cities across Syria today.
[09:03.700 --> 09:06.700]  It marked a new challenge to President Bashar al-Assad.
[09:06.700 --> 09:12.700]  The opposition reported as many as 250,000 people turned out in both Idlib and Hama,
[09:12.700 --> 09:16.700]  and there were many thousands more in Homs, Douma, and Daraa.
[09:16.700 --> 09:18.700]  With the troops gunned down, at least 22 people,
[09:18.700 --> 09:23.700]  we have a report narrated by Andy Davies of Independent Television News.
[09:23.700 --> 09:27.700]  Homs, in the northwest of Syria this morning.
[09:27.700 --> 09:32.700]  Some are now calling this the martyr city, given the numbers killed here in recent months.
[09:32.700 --> 09:34.700]  In front of the camera reads the message,
[09:34.700 --> 09:38.700]  this is the Friday for marching towards the squares of freedom.
[09:38.700 --> 09:42.700]  And so they did, gathering in their thousands in the city's main square,
[09:42.700 --> 09:46.700]  significantly for the first time in months.
[09:52.700 --> 09:58.700]  In towns across Syria, the opposition movement rallied its support base following Friday prayers.
[09:58.700 --> 10:01.700]  Hundreds of thousands reportedly took to the streets,
[10:01.700 --> 10:08.700]  emboldened perhaps by the recent arrival of yellow-vested Arab League monitors in the country.
[10:08.700 --> 10:15.700]  This intended as a statement to those observers, regime violence will not quell this uprising.
[10:25.700 --> 10:28.700]  This footage was apparently recorded today in Douma.
[10:28.700 --> 10:32.700]  It's just six miles from the center of the capital, Damascus.
[10:32.700 --> 10:35.700]  It's not clear what caused this particular explosion,
[10:35.700 --> 10:42.700]  but opposition activists alleged Syrian security forces had thrown nail bombs into the crowd.
[10:44.700 --> 10:48.700]  There was violence documented also in the city of Hama.
[10:48.700 --> 10:53.700]  Five were shot dead here today, alleged one activist.
[10:53.700 --> 10:57.700]  A fortnight ago, the United Nations estimated that more than 5,000
[10:57.700 --> 11:01.700]  have been killed by Syrian security forces since the uprising began.
[11:01.700 --> 11:06.700]  One influential campaign group says it's now more than 6,000.
[11:06.700 --> 11:11.700]  It's a figure disputed by the government and again today by its media.
[11:11.700 --> 11:17.700]  This reporter claims he's tracked down a number of people who were supposedly killed by security forces.
[11:17.700 --> 11:23.700]  State-run TV was broadcasting today live from the center of Damascus and other cities.
[11:23.700 --> 11:27.700]  They were showing rallies in support of al-Assad's regime.
[11:27.700 --> 11:32.700]  In Pakistan today, at least nine people were killed when a car bomb exploded in the city of Quetta
[11:32.700 --> 11:34.700]  outside the home of a local politician.
[11:34.700 --> 11:38.700]  Pakistani television showed video of victims being rushed to a nearby hospital.
[11:38.700 --> 11:40.700]  More than 20 people were wounded there.
[11:40.700 --> 11:46.700]  Spain has imposed new austerity measures, including a temporary tax hike to raise almost $8 billion.
[11:46.700 --> 11:49.700]  The two-year increase would affect the wealthy.
[11:49.700 --> 11:55.700]  The newly elected center-right government also announced more than $11 billion in spending cuts today.
[11:55.700 --> 11:58.700]  It's all part of efforts to rein in the country's growing debt.
[11:58.700 --> 12:03.700]  Wall Street stumbled on the last trading day of the year with nothing to give the market much of a boost.
[12:03.700 --> 12:08.700]  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 69 points to close at 12,217.
[12:08.700 --> 12:11.700]  The Nasdaq fell 8 points to close at 2605.
[12:11.700 --> 12:17.700]  For the year, the Dow gained 5 percent, 5.5 percent, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 2 percent.
[12:17.700 --> 12:22.700]  The Standard and Poor's 500 finished the year down less than a tenth of a point.
[12:22.700 --> 12:26.700]  Two NASA satellites are set to start orbiting the moon over New Year's weekend.
[12:26.700 --> 12:32.700]  The probes were launched in September as part of the GRAIL mission for Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory.
[12:32.700 --> 12:35.700]  Each satellite is about the size of a washing machine.
[12:35.700 --> 12:38.700]  They're to fly in tandem to map the moon's gravitational field.
[12:38.700 --> 12:42.700]  That data could reveal the moon's interior and how it formed.
[12:42.700 --> 12:45.700]  Those are some of today's major stories. Now back to Jim.
[12:45.700 --> 12:48.700]  And we return to Iowa.
[12:48.700 --> 12:55.700]  Last evening, Judy Woodruff spoke with five still undecided voters, all registered Republicans.
[12:55.700 --> 13:01.700]  They were selected with the help of civic and educational organizations in Iowa.
[13:01.700 --> 13:05.700]  Thank you all for joining us and to Jim Carley for hosting us in your home.
[13:05.700 --> 13:06.700]  You're welcome.
[13:06.700 --> 13:09.700]  As you look at the country, how do you think things are going overall?
[13:09.700 --> 13:12.700]  I think we're going in the wrong direction.
[13:12.700 --> 13:19.700]  I think that there needs to be a 360 turnaround into where we're going now with the economy.
[13:19.700 --> 13:23.700]  And I think also our world standing has declined.
[13:23.700 --> 13:27.700]  We read that the Iowa economy is doing pretty well, Jim.
[13:27.700 --> 13:31.700]  Your unemployment rate overall is pretty good.
[13:31.700 --> 13:35.700]  But you still have a pretty negative view about the economy, is that right?
[13:35.700 --> 13:38.700]  My wife and I were both retired.
[13:38.700 --> 13:42.700]  We have our pensions, but we also have investments, which took a pretty big hit.
[13:42.700 --> 13:45.700]  And it's the uncertainty of what's going to happen.
[13:45.700 --> 13:53.700]  We're doing fine now, but when it's not doing anything to get better and Congress can't agree on what day of the week it is,
[13:53.700 --> 13:55.700]  how are we ever going to get anything solved?
[13:55.700 --> 13:59.700]  So we are quite concerned about the future and what's going to happen there.
[13:59.700 --> 14:00.700]  BJ, what about for you?
[14:00.700 --> 14:05.700]  I mean, personally, how do you think things are going for you, for your family?
[14:05.700 --> 14:09.700]  Right now things are a little bit better, but we've had some tough times.
[14:09.700 --> 14:12.700]  When I say that, I've never clipped a coupon in my life.
[14:12.700 --> 14:17.700]  And now I take the Sunday paper not to read the news, but to go through the coupons and see what's in there.
[14:17.700 --> 14:21.700]  And I may only save $5, but I'm so excited about that $5.
[14:21.700 --> 14:23.700]  And Dave, what about you?
[14:23.700 --> 14:28.700]  Well, I personally, being self-employed, being in the car business, I've been pretty affected by it.
[14:28.700 --> 14:31.700]  I think a lot of the small dealers have been hurt.
[14:31.700 --> 14:36.700]  The impending crisis with the no lending and people are unsure of how to spend their money
[14:36.700 --> 14:39.700]  or when to spend their money or if they should spend their money.
[14:39.700 --> 14:42.700]  I think that's put a hurt on everybody.
[14:42.700 --> 14:45.700]  People just don't have the money to spend it right now.
[14:45.700 --> 14:49.700]  And if we can get the economy going, it'll heal all the social problems.
[14:49.700 --> 14:51.700]  The social problems will all be by themselves.
[14:51.700 --> 14:53.700]  We just need to get the economy going right now.
[14:53.700 --> 15:00.700]  Sam, how do you see the importance of this election and how closely have you been following it?
[15:00.700 --> 15:02.700]  I've been following it very closely.
[15:02.700 --> 15:07.700]  I've been lucky enough to shake the hand of every presidential candidate and look them in the eye,
[15:07.700 --> 15:09.700]  which I think says a lot about being in Iowa.
[15:09.700 --> 15:13.700]  And you can also learn a lot from that exchange.
[15:13.700 --> 15:19.700]  I think this election is really going to be a referendum on some really important issues to this country.
[15:19.700 --> 15:24.700]  I think spending, how to balance the budget, the national debt,
[15:24.700 --> 15:27.700]  all those issues are really going to be decided by this election.
[15:27.700 --> 15:34.700]  And the American people are going to have to decide what solutions we want to go about to solve those problems.
[15:34.700 --> 15:36.700]  BJ, what do you think right now?
[15:36.700 --> 15:37.700]  Where are you leaning?
[15:37.700 --> 15:40.700]  The caucuses are just a few days away.
[15:40.700 --> 15:43.700]  I'm leaning toward Newt Gingrich.
[15:43.700 --> 15:49.700]  I've been leaning that way for a while because I think he's authentic.
[15:49.700 --> 15:56.700]  He has success working with the opposite party.
[15:56.700 --> 15:59.700]  And he seems to have a vision for the future.
[15:59.700 --> 16:04.700]  Is there anybody else you're thinking about other than Gingrich at this point?
[16:04.700 --> 16:09.700]  I really like Michelle Bachman because if you want to know the truth,
[16:09.700 --> 16:13.700]  I'd like to see any man, and I suppose this is a feminist perspective,
[16:13.700 --> 16:22.700]  I'd like to see any man start a business, go to school, raise five children, and have 23 foster children.
[16:22.700 --> 16:24.700]  I don't think a man could do that.
[16:24.700 --> 16:29.700]  I think she runs circles around them, and I like what she stands for.
[16:29.700 --> 16:31.700]  She's a good multitasker.
[16:31.700 --> 16:33.700]  Sam, what about you?
[16:33.700 --> 16:36.700]  It seems to me with a lot of these candidates, I'm leaning away.
[16:36.700 --> 16:41.700]  So I think two candidates that I'm leaning towards would be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
[16:41.700 --> 16:48.700]  I think looking at their records, Mitt Romney's been a turnaround artist his entire career,
[16:48.700 --> 16:52.700]  and I think that he could do a really great job turning around the economy.
[16:52.700 --> 16:55.700]  And then Ron Paul really speaks to me as a young person.
[16:55.700 --> 17:00.700]  He's got a great youth following, and I really like a lot of his libertarian stances.
[17:00.700 --> 17:04.700]  What about you, Jim? Where are you leaning right now?
[17:04.700 --> 17:08.700]  Well, if I vote principles, which I'm really leaning at just recently here,
[17:08.700 --> 17:13.700]  things have happened and I'm standing for that, would put me in Rick Santorum's camp.
[17:13.700 --> 17:16.700]  I like the principles that he has.
[17:16.700 --> 17:19.700]  I think that's where a lot of our problem is.
[17:19.700 --> 17:21.700]  We don't have virtuous and moral leaders.
[17:21.700 --> 17:26.700]  Victoria, what about you? Where is your head right now, or heart, or both?
[17:26.700 --> 17:29.700]  It really is a struggle. I'm just being honest.
[17:29.700 --> 17:32.700]  I don't know. I don't have that.
[17:32.700 --> 17:37.700]  It was so funny because for Huckabee, I was like, yes, this is my guy. I want him.
[17:37.700 --> 17:40.700]  I'm going to go out. It was freezing. It was snow and ice.
[17:40.700 --> 17:43.700]  Horrible the last time.
[17:43.700 --> 17:47.700]  I don't feel that for any candidate right now, and that scares me.
[17:47.700 --> 17:52.700]  So that's why I'm just not loyal to any one person at this point.
[17:52.700 --> 17:56.700]  Dave, what about you? How are you leaning right now?
[17:56.700 --> 18:00.700]  We have a couple candidates I think should have came to Iowa, should have campaigned here.
[18:00.700 --> 18:02.700]  I think Mr. Huntsman is one of them.
[18:02.700 --> 18:04.700]  He should have thrown his hat in the ring.
[18:04.700 --> 18:06.700]  He says a lot of good things.
[18:06.700 --> 18:14.700]  But whichever candidate is selected, we need to get behind the candidate and beat Obama in 2012.
[18:14.700 --> 18:18.700]  Jim, what about that? Because it sounds like you're saying something a little bit different from what Dave is saying.
[18:18.700 --> 18:24.700]  I don't think we need to go into the polls with the only thing on our mind is who can beat him.
[18:24.700 --> 18:28.700]  There's still 10 months to go before the election.
[18:28.700 --> 18:35.700]  And one of those down the bottom may be the rising star in actuality once they get out into the rest of the nation.
[18:35.700 --> 18:40.700]  And so I think we need to pick a good candidate. I favor one that has good principles that I can trust.
[18:40.700 --> 18:41.700]  Santorum.
[18:41.700 --> 18:43.700]  Santorum, right.
[18:43.700 --> 18:49.700]  But I think part of the problem that we have in this, I've never seen this many people so undecided this late in the game.
[18:49.700 --> 18:57.700]  And I think a lot of that has to do with the massive number of debates that we've had and the forum that the debates have had to where people are attacking each other.
[18:57.700 --> 18:59.700]  I mean, we're attacking our own.
[18:59.700 --> 19:03.700]  Anybody else on why it's so hard to make a decision this time?
[19:03.700 --> 19:06.700]  I mean, you've touched on the fact that it is hard.
[19:06.700 --> 19:08.700]  But any thoughts about why?
[19:08.700 --> 19:09.700]  Vijay?
[19:09.700 --> 19:14.700]  I think Mitt Romney cannot get past a certain level.
[19:14.700 --> 19:19.700]  And he couldn't go up against Huckabee last time, although he spent gobs and gobs and gobs of money.
[19:19.700 --> 19:24.700]  And to me, Mitt Romney is the status quo in the Republican Party.
[19:24.700 --> 19:31.700]  And I think a lot of us, I don't know how many of us are Tea Partiers or Libertarians, we're dissatisfied with the status quo of the Republican Party.
[19:31.700 --> 19:34.700]  And that's what Mitt Romney represents.
[19:34.700 --> 19:39.700]  That's why there's the fight, not the end fight, but the turmoil in our party.
[19:39.700 --> 19:40.700]  Sam, what do you say to that?
[19:40.700 --> 19:44.700]  Because you said Romney was somebody you could support.
[19:44.700 --> 19:46.700]  In fact, you mentioned him first.
[19:46.700 --> 19:51.700]  Yeah, I think that Mitt Romney really brings a lot to the table.
[19:51.700 --> 20:02.700]  And if you look at him against Newt Gingrich, I mean, I don't mean to get candidate versus candidate here, but Newt Gingrich has really been the textbook Washington insider since, you know, for the last 40 years.
[20:02.700 --> 20:07.700]  And so I don't know if I'm comfortable having that background in the White House.
[20:07.700 --> 20:09.700]  Mitt Romney, he's not a true conservative.
[20:09.700 --> 20:12.700]  And we talk about being enthusiastic.
[20:12.700 --> 20:14.700]  Conservatives cannot get enthusiastic about him.
[20:14.700 --> 20:18.700]  And that's why I think that there's that vacuum.
[20:18.700 --> 20:19.700]  What about that, Jim?
[20:19.700 --> 20:24.700]  Because I think you're the one who said a few minutes ago, we need somebody who's going to stick with their principles.
[20:24.700 --> 20:25.700]  That's right.
[20:25.700 --> 20:33.700]  My fear with Romney and why I don't like him is I believe government should be small, smaller government, less cost.
[20:33.700 --> 20:36.700]  People are responsible and they take care of themselves.
[20:36.700 --> 20:44.700]  My feeling is anybody that wants to institute health care, and I know they have a state constitution that says they can, but that's somebody that wants big government.
[20:44.700 --> 20:46.700]  Romney, I mean, he's a nice guy.
[20:46.700 --> 20:47.700]  He's polished.
[20:47.700 --> 20:49.700]  He's back for a second time around.
[20:49.700 --> 20:56.700]  You know, but he's just not the person who I will get up in a snowstorm to vote for.
[20:56.700 --> 20:58.700]  Some of you have mentioned Santorum.
[20:58.700 --> 21:03.700]  Let me ask you, Sam, why didn't you bring up Rick Santorum?
[21:03.700 --> 21:11.700]  Well, I think my problem with Rick Santorum as well as some of the other maybe more socially conservative candidates is I think they dwell too much on social issues.
[21:11.700 --> 21:18.700]  And while they might pass a credential check as far as their economic policies go, I just don't think they're people.
[21:18.700 --> 21:22.700]  I think they alienate moderate voters and independents.
[21:22.700 --> 21:27.700]  And while they might excite the base, I just don't see them doing well at all in a general election.
[21:27.700 --> 21:29.700]  When do you think you're going to make up your mind?
[21:29.700 --> 21:31.700]  Probably Tuesday.
[21:31.700 --> 21:35.700]  I'll have her done by Sunday and then I'll think about it.
[21:35.700 --> 21:39.700]  Well, we appreciate all of you talking with us about these caucuses.
[21:39.700 --> 21:41.700]  Thank you very much.
[21:41.700 --> 21:42.700]  Thank you.
[21:42.700 --> 21:43.700]  You're very welcome.
[21:43.700 --> 21:45.700]  Thanks for having us.
[21:45.700 --> 21:51.700]  For the record, Texas Governor Rick Perry's name did not come up in Judy's discussion.
[21:51.700 --> 22:01.700]  As we heard in Judy's conversation, four years ago it was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who beat Mitt Romney and all others to win the Iowa Republican caucus.
[22:01.700 --> 22:06.700]  His success came with the strong support of conservative evangelical Christians.
[22:06.700 --> 22:11.700]  Tonight's edition of Need to Know explores the power of the religious right in Iowa.
[22:11.700 --> 22:14.700]  This excerpt looks at the influence of one man in particular.
[22:14.700 --> 22:17.700]  The correspondent is Rick Carr.
[22:17.700 --> 22:21.700]  Bob Vander Plaats was chairman of Mike Huckabee's Iowa campaign in 2008.
[22:21.700 --> 22:30.700]  Then he led a campaign against three state Supreme Court justices who ruled in favor of gay marriage and ended up driving them out of office.
[22:30.700 --> 22:38.700]  Now he runs an advocacy group for social conservatives called the Family Leader, and Fox News calls him a kingmaker in Iowa.
[22:38.700 --> 22:45.700]  The Los Angeles Times wrote that meeting with you is a prerequisite for any candidate who wants to compete in Iowa.
[22:45.700 --> 22:46.700]  Is that true?
[22:46.700 --> 22:53.700]  I don't know if it's a prerequisite to meet with me, but I believe it's the issues that our organization represents.
[22:53.700 --> 23:00.700]  And our supporters are very, very sincere about these issues.
[23:00.700 --> 23:04.700]  They're very interested in who's going to champion these issues.
[23:04.700 --> 23:08.700]  Our supporters are going to show up on caucus night.
[23:08.700 --> 23:12.700]  In November, the Family Leader hosted a forum for GOP hopefuls.
[23:12.700 --> 23:18.700]  We don't need you to be Republican or Democrat, but we need you to be biblical.
[23:18.700 --> 23:23.700]  And the candidates lined up to tout their fealty to socially conservative positions.
[23:23.700 --> 23:31.700]  The left is prepared to impose intolerance and to drive out of existence traditional religion.
[23:31.700 --> 23:33.700]  They slammed abortion rights.
[23:33.700 --> 23:37.700]  I have supported the amendment that defines life at conception.
[23:37.700 --> 23:45.700]  As long as abortion is legal, at least according to the Supreme Court, legal in this country, we will never have rest.
[23:45.700 --> 23:46.700]  Gay marriage.
[23:46.700 --> 23:52.700]  The family is defined as one man, one woman, no other definition will do.
[23:52.700 --> 23:55.700]  And what they call Obamacare.
[23:55.700 --> 24:00.700]  Obamacare has to go because it's trying to tell us how to deliver health care in our states.
[24:00.700 --> 24:05.700]  The candidates came because conservative evangelical voters are organized and motivated.
[24:05.700 --> 24:08.700]  They turn up on caucus night.
[24:08.700 --> 24:15.700]  And endorsements from socially conservative groups like the Family Leader could turn one of them into the Mike Huckabee of the current campaign.
[24:15.700 --> 24:21.700]  But Vander Plaats says none of them ended up stealing the hearts of Iowa's conservative evangelicals.
[24:21.700 --> 24:24.700]  We had six candidates in our Thanksgiving family forum.
[24:24.700 --> 24:33.700]  And I think it was my wife afterwards who said, you know, Bob, if we could take those six and put them in a blender and just have the strengths come out and have one candidate.
[24:33.700 --> 24:36.700]  And I said, Darla, you're getting awfully close to cloning.
[24:36.700 --> 24:39.700]  But we would have a perfect candidate.
[24:39.700 --> 24:44.700]  And I think what we're realizing today, there is no perfect candidate.
[24:44.700 --> 24:45.700]  A post script.
[24:45.700 --> 24:48.700]  Bob Vander Plaats ended up endorsing Rick Santorum.
[24:48.700 --> 24:56.700]  There were published reports last week that Vander Plaats sought up to a million dollars for his endorsement, allegations he vigorously denied.
[24:56.700 --> 25:07.700]  Need to Know airs on most PBS stations tonight.
[25:07.700 --> 25:14.700]  And to the analysis of Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York Times columnist David Brooks.
[25:14.700 --> 25:22.700]  David from Iowa, do you have a big picture portrait of the setting, the scene there tonight?
[25:22.700 --> 25:24.700]  Well, there are some human interest stories.
[25:24.700 --> 25:27.700]  I got to see Newt Gingrich cry today, something I'd never seen before.
[25:27.700 --> 25:29.700]  He was asked some very personal questions about his life.
[25:29.700 --> 25:33.700]  And he talked about how he's sadder and slower than he used to be.
[25:33.700 --> 25:36.700]  And then he was asked about his mom and his face just dissolved in tears.
[25:36.700 --> 25:39.700]  And, you know, the candidates are very tired.
[25:39.700 --> 25:40.700]  Gingrich's numbers are falling.
[25:40.700 --> 25:41.700]  They're under a lot of pressure.
[25:41.700 --> 25:44.700]  And so you got to see that human element.
[25:44.700 --> 25:48.700]  The big thing that comes from all the different campaigns is a sense of looking backward.
[25:48.700 --> 25:53.700]  There's a theme in almost every single race, which is America has lost something that it once had.
[25:53.700 --> 25:54.700]  And so we have to look backward.
[25:54.700 --> 25:57.700]  It's about restoration, restoring old values.
[25:57.700 --> 25:58.700]  We've strayed.
[25:58.700 --> 26:05.700]  And this is a theme, which is sort of a negative and pessimistic theme, almost an apocalyptic theme, that one finds in Mitt Romney.
[26:05.700 --> 26:08.700]  One finds it in Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul.
[26:08.700 --> 26:11.700]  It's all about we had this magic and we've lost it.
[26:11.700 --> 26:14.700]  How do you see the big picture, Mark?
[26:14.700 --> 26:20.700]  I think the point David made is one worth repeating, and that is American campaigns are about the future.
[26:20.700 --> 26:24.700]  And this campaign has really been an awful lot about the past.
[26:24.700 --> 26:31.700]  And it's kind of fascinating to see, it felt like Rick Santorum really vaulted from nowhere after campaigning.
[26:31.700 --> 26:35.700]  Ninety-nine counties doing the classic meeting voters and so forth.
[26:35.700 --> 26:39.700]  But absent from his message that I get is any upbeat.
[26:39.700 --> 26:43.700]  I mean, there's sort of a gloom and doom to it.
[26:43.700 --> 26:46.700]  But I think, Jim, this has been a remarkable race.
[26:46.700 --> 26:52.700]  At separate times during this year, six different candidates have led in the polls in Iowa.
[26:52.700 --> 26:59.700]  So, you know, it's up for grabs and it's very much Tuesday will determine who goes forward.
[26:59.700 --> 27:06.700]  I mean, some candidacies will end just outside of the Des Moines Airport on Wednesday morning.
[27:06.700 --> 27:09.700]  All right, let's talk about Romney for a moment, beginning with you, David.
[27:09.700 --> 27:16.700]  How do you read the situation on Romney right now, where he stands and what his prospects are in Iowa?
[27:16.700 --> 27:19.700]  Yeah, he's exuding confidence. I think his people are exuding confidence.
[27:19.700 --> 27:25.700]  I went to a rally this morning in Lorraine and he was with Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey.
[27:25.700 --> 27:30.700]  And it was just a smooth, effective, not too long, but sort of a corporate race.
[27:30.700 --> 27:32.700]  It was like George Bush in year 2000.
[27:32.700 --> 27:35.700]  And what's interesting is the tactic it's taking.
[27:35.700 --> 27:38.700]  It's very short on policy. It's very long on patriotism.
[27:38.700 --> 27:42.700]  He talks about driving across the country looking at the national parks.
[27:42.700 --> 27:46.700]  He talks, he sings or at least recites some verses from the Star-Spangled Banner.
[27:46.700 --> 27:49.700]  It's as if he's running to be Tom Sawyer.
[27:49.700 --> 27:52.700]  And I think it's a way to establish a connection with voters,
[27:52.700 --> 27:55.700]  even despite questions they may have about Mormonism or anything else.
[27:55.700 --> 28:00.700]  I think it's a way to distinguish in his eyes between him and Barack Obama.
[28:00.700 --> 28:01.700]  He's more mainstream.
[28:01.700 --> 28:08.700]  And then again, this theme of returning, as posing as Tom Sawyer, he's returning to some earlier values.
[28:08.700 --> 28:11.700]  And you know, that may play this year. Mark is absolutely right.
[28:11.700 --> 28:14.700]  Rick Santorum and a lot of the candidates are very negative.
[28:14.700 --> 28:17.700]  The guy who won it four years ago, Mike Huckabee, very positive.
[28:17.700 --> 28:24.700]  But the mood here has darkened appreciably and maybe they're in tune with what the voters are hearing right now.
[28:24.700 --> 28:30.700]  But Mark, you heard what Judy said, that her feeling was that the polls show that there's a cap.
[28:30.700 --> 28:32.700]  That cap is still there for Romney.
[28:32.700 --> 28:38.700]  It's working to his advantage because everybody else is so split up, right?
[28:38.700 --> 28:39.700]  That's right, Jim.
[28:39.700 --> 28:44.700]  Nobody has been able to consolidate, for example, the religious conservative vote,
[28:44.700 --> 28:48.700]  although it seems that Rick Santorum has made great inroads there.
[28:48.700 --> 28:52.700]  But no, there seems to be a ceiling on Mitt Romney.
[28:52.700 --> 28:57.700]  It was kind of fascinating at the beginning of the month of December in the Gallup poll.
[28:57.700 --> 29:04.700]  He trailed Newt Gingrich at 37 to 23, you know, 14 point deficit.
[29:04.700 --> 29:08.700]  He now leads Newt Gingrich 27 to 22. All right.
[29:08.700 --> 29:11.700]  Now it means Gingrich has plummeted and all the rest of it.
[29:11.700 --> 29:12.700]  Romney has just moved up, though.
[29:12.700 --> 29:15.700]  He just broke the 25 point barrier.
[29:15.700 --> 29:20.700]  I think what Romney's campaign has been about is not so great expectations.
[29:20.700 --> 29:24.700]  I mean, they've lowered, tried to lower the expectations in Iowa all year.
[29:24.700 --> 29:29.700]  But David's right, I think there's a sense now that they could win in Iowa.
[29:29.700 --> 29:34.700]  Or even if Ron Paul wins, that's not the worst thing in the world to them, they feel, in the long run.
[29:34.700 --> 29:42.700]  But the knockout punch in both Iowa and New Hampshire would do for him, the Romney people feel,
[29:42.700 --> 29:48.700]  what it did for George W. Bush in 2000 when he sewed up the Republican nomination, essentially.
[29:48.700 --> 29:57.700]  And in 2004 when John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire.
[29:57.700 --> 30:01.700]  Of course, in 2000 he lost to John McCain in New Hampshire.
[30:01.700 --> 30:05.700]  But that one-two punch is really formidable.
[30:05.700 --> 30:07.700]  All right. Now, about Ron Paul.
[30:07.700 --> 30:10.700]  David, as Mark just said, Ron Paul's up there.
[30:10.700 --> 30:13.700]  And what is that going to mean?
[30:13.700 --> 30:15.700]  If you don't say he wins, that's one thing.
[30:15.700 --> 30:23.700]  But even if he comes in a close second, what's it going to mean for the race generally, for Ron Paul to do that well in Iowa?
[30:23.700 --> 30:28.700]  Well, the thing the Romney people like is their two main rivals right now are Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.
[30:28.700 --> 30:32.700]  People think Gingrich's campaign might have legs or Rick Perry's campaign might have legs.
[30:32.700 --> 30:36.700]  But I don't think they're too worried about Santorum and Paul having legs.
[30:36.700 --> 30:40.700]  So having rivals like that is good for the Romney camp.
[30:40.700 --> 30:45.700]  The Paul people are young, they're organized, they're very diverse.
[30:45.700 --> 30:51.700]  There are some veterans, some older people, a lot of students, a lot of gold bugs, some people who want drug legalization.
[30:51.700 --> 30:54.700]  It's about as diverse a group of people as you can possibly imagine.
[30:54.700 --> 31:01.700]  And there's a supposition that Paul, like Santorum, probably is under polling, that there are more people and they're more mobilized,
[31:01.700 --> 31:04.700]  both in the libertarian camp and the social conservative camp.
[31:04.700 --> 31:09.700]  And so historically, people in those camps have done a little better than the final polls.
[31:09.700 --> 31:11.700]  So there's upside for him.
[31:11.700 --> 31:14.700]  And it's funny the way he campaigns.
[31:14.700 --> 31:16.700]  He campaigns like the audience isn't there.
[31:16.700 --> 31:21.700]  He gives his talks, whether they're applauding or not, listening or not, he's going to tell you what he thinks.
[31:21.700 --> 31:25.700]  So there's no real superstar.
[31:25.700 --> 31:30.700]  There's no stump superstar who really can galvanize a crowd among this group the way Huckabee did,
[31:30.700 --> 31:33.700]  the way John Edwards did, the way Barack Obama did.
[31:33.700 --> 31:37.700]  As a series of stump performers, I would say it's a below average year.
[31:37.700 --> 31:41.700]  And Paul, doing very well, is certainly not raising that average.
[31:41.700 --> 31:45.700]  How do you account for Santorum's surge?
[31:45.700 --> 31:47.700]  Just a quick thing on that, Paul.
[31:47.700 --> 31:52.700]  The word in 2008, authenticity, Ron Paul exudes authenticity.
[31:52.700 --> 31:56.700]  He says the same thing wherever he goes. Others trim, they pander.
[31:56.700 --> 31:58.700]  You may not like it, but he says the same thing.
[31:58.700 --> 32:01.700]  They play to the crowd, you know, what do you want to hear?
[32:01.700 --> 32:03.700]  Ron Paul is just the opposite.
[32:03.700 --> 32:08.700]  And he has, unlike Santorum and even Gingrich at this point, he has money
[32:08.700 --> 32:12.700]  and the ability to raise money in small contributions from a lot of different people.
[32:12.700 --> 32:14.700]  But Santorum's been saying the same thing, too.
[32:14.700 --> 32:16.700]  Santorum has been.
[32:16.700 --> 32:17.700]  In his own way, I mean.
[32:17.700 --> 32:22.700]  That's right. He has sounded the themes that have been the credo of modern conservatism,
[32:22.700 --> 32:31.700]  strong, muscular foreign policy, social, religious conservatives, and economic fiscal conservatism.
[32:31.700 --> 32:37.700]  And I think that there's a sense in Iowa that he's worked for it.
[32:37.700 --> 32:42.700]  He's visited the 99 counties. He's done it the retail way.
[32:42.700 --> 32:47.700]  He's listened to the hairdressers and the auto mechanics.
[32:47.700 --> 32:51.700]  And I think that there is a connection point.
[32:51.700 --> 32:55.700]  And especially now with the religious and social conservatives, I think he's caught on.
[32:55.700 --> 32:58.700]  And that the others have fallen on the wayside.
[32:58.700 --> 32:59.700]  So hey, here's Santorum.
[32:59.700 --> 33:03.700]  Well, he never had the moment in the sun. I mean, the others were all Icarus.
[33:03.700 --> 33:06.700]  I mean, they got close to the sun and then boom.
[33:06.700 --> 33:09.700]  How do you read Santorum, David?
[33:09.700 --> 33:16.700]  Yeah, to me, this is less about the candidates and their personalities and more about just raw demographics and philosophy.
[33:16.700 --> 33:20.700]  Year after year, there are a lot of social conservatives in this state.
[33:20.700 --> 33:25.700]  And this goes back to the time many elections ago when Pat Robertson did well here, let alone Mike Huckabee.
[33:25.700 --> 33:27.700]  And those social conservatives have always been here.
[33:27.700 --> 33:29.700]  And they're going to vote for a social conservative candidate.
[33:29.700 --> 33:33.700]  And Santorum's a homeschooler. He homeschools his kids.
[33:33.700 --> 33:36.700]  He's genuinely of the community, even though he is Catholic.
[33:36.700 --> 33:38.700]  And so they're going to go for that guy.
[33:38.700 --> 33:42.700]  There are genuinely a lot of libertarians among the voters here.
[33:42.700 --> 33:43.700]  And they're going to go for Ron Paul.
[33:43.700 --> 33:46.700]  And whether they perform well or not is almost beside the point.
[33:46.700 --> 33:49.700]  At this point, those people are going to express their point of view.
[33:49.700 --> 33:51.700]  And so there are just a lot of those voters in this state.
[33:51.700 --> 33:53.700]  Let's go back to Gingrich for a moment, David.
[33:53.700 --> 33:56.700]  You said you saw him cry today.
[33:56.700 --> 34:00.700]  His polls show that he has really dropped.
[34:00.700 --> 34:07.700]  And why? And does he have a chance of coming out of Iowa in any way that could give him leg?
[34:07.700 --> 34:11.700]  There's a possibility of legs for Gingrich. Why?
[34:11.700 --> 34:15.700]  I asked you three questions in one. Sorry about that.
[34:15.700 --> 34:18.700]  Well, he's a candidate who has a long reputation.
[34:18.700 --> 34:20.700]  And he's pretty good. I saw him today on the stump.
[34:20.700 --> 34:22.700]  And he gives good answers that get applause going.
[34:22.700 --> 34:25.700]  He's just a polished political performer.
[34:25.700 --> 34:31.700]  The reason he's falling primarily is that there's a lot of ads on TV these days in Iowa.
[34:31.700 --> 34:34.700]  And 47 percent of them are being run against Newt Gingrich.
[34:34.700 --> 34:36.700]  There's just a ton of negative ads.
[34:36.700 --> 34:39.700]  He's got a lot that he's freely admits he's vulnerable for.
[34:39.700 --> 34:41.700]  And so people are learning about the divorces.
[34:41.700 --> 34:44.700]  They're learning about the Freddie Mac lobbying.
[34:44.700 --> 34:46.700]  And they're just not happy.
[34:46.700 --> 34:47.700]  It's funny to watch him.
[34:47.700 --> 34:50.700]  I happened to run into him in a hotel lobby last night.
[34:50.700 --> 34:53.700]  And he was ebullient and very self-aware, very different sort of Newt Gingrich,
[34:53.700 --> 34:57.700]  a little more mature than I'd seen him, very aware of his problems and his possibilities.
[34:57.700 --> 35:00.700]  And then today, the emotional moment.
[35:00.700 --> 35:03.700]  I wouldn't bet on him rebounding.
[35:03.700 --> 35:06.700]  But he is someone who still can debate extremely well.
[35:06.700 --> 35:11.700]  And that argument that he uses time and time again, who do you want to see debating Barack Obama,
[35:11.700 --> 35:12.700]  that is one that resonates.
[35:12.700 --> 35:15.700]  So I wouldn't totally count him out, but I certainly wouldn't bet money on him.
[35:15.700 --> 35:17.700]  You wouldn't either, would you?
[35:17.700 --> 35:23.700]  I think I'm probably less bullish on Newt Gingrich's ability to bounce back than David.
[35:23.700 --> 35:30.700]  In 1996, after he lost, Bob Dole said, he said, I was told that people did not like negative ads.
[35:30.700 --> 35:31.700]  I didn't run any.
[35:31.700 --> 35:32.700]  I lost.
[35:32.700 --> 35:34.700]  And I think we're seeing that with Newt Gingrich.
[35:34.700 --> 35:45.700]  I mean, David mentioned that 45, 47 percent of all the ads bought in Iowa in 2011 have been against Newt Gingrich.
[35:45.700 --> 35:50.700]  I mean, that leaves 55 percent for anybody else positive.
[35:50.700 --> 35:55.700]  Perhaps the most effective was Ron Paul's, which was the serial hypocrisy ad.
[35:55.700 --> 35:57.700]  So I think it's tough.
[35:57.700 --> 36:00.700]  There's an awful lot that has come back to him.
[36:00.700 --> 36:08.700]  I think probably the Freddie Mac has really hurt him with conservatives in general and the historian explanation.
[36:08.700 --> 36:14.700]  Secondly, was really his appearing with Nancy Pelosi in that public service announcement on climate change.
[36:14.700 --> 36:15.700]  He never was able to put that behind him.
[36:15.700 --> 36:17.700]  No, he really hasn't.
[36:17.700 --> 36:25.700]  On Iowa generally, both of you, beginning with you, David, should Iowa matter as much as it appears to at this point?
[36:25.700 --> 36:30.700]  I mean, as we're getting we're talking about the whole world is talking about it right now.
[36:30.700 --> 36:31.700]  Should they be?
[36:31.700 --> 36:39.700]  Is this is this the way to choose candidates for president of the United States by going starting with Iowa?
[36:39.700 --> 36:40.700]  Yeah, I still think so.
[36:40.700 --> 36:44.700]  I still visit still my favorite place to cover a political race.
[36:44.700 --> 36:45.700]  It's not the way it used to be.
[36:45.700 --> 36:51.700]  It's not just George H.W. Bush driving around in a station wagon with one aid and maybe a press person.
[36:51.700 --> 36:52.700]  Now there's clumps of people.
[36:52.700 --> 36:53.700]  There's big buses.
[36:53.700 --> 36:55.700]  But it's still it's more retail.
[36:55.700 --> 36:58.700]  The people are really run through their paces.
[36:58.700 --> 37:01.700]  Rick Perry tried, couldn't make it here.
[37:01.700 --> 37:02.700]  Michelle Bachman.
[37:02.700 --> 37:04.700]  We saw what happened to her among voters here.
[37:04.700 --> 37:05.700]  It is.
[37:05.700 --> 37:07.700]  I think it's still a good testing ground.
[37:07.700 --> 37:09.700]  Is it the most representative state in the country?
[37:09.700 --> 37:10.700]  Maybe not.
[37:10.700 --> 37:16.700]  But I still think it's a practiced, knowledgeable electorate who are very good at putting candidates through the ordeal of running.
[37:16.700 --> 37:21.700]  And I do think it's a legitimate way to screen out candidates and give a couple a chance to move on.
[37:21.700 --> 37:23.700]  You agree with that, don't you?
[37:23.700 --> 37:24.700]  I do, Jim.
[37:24.700 --> 37:25.700]  I mean, Iowa is unrepresentative.
[37:25.700 --> 37:29.700]  It has the fourth highest literacy rate of the 50 states.
[37:29.700 --> 37:31.700]  It has the third lowest divorce rate.
[37:31.700 --> 37:43.700]  It has the sixth highest high school graduation rate, higher than the coastal smug states of Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington.
[37:43.700 --> 37:46.700]  And the people take it quite seriously.
[37:46.700 --> 37:49.700]  And I always feel better after I've been in Iowa.
[37:49.700 --> 37:51.700]  And I will feel better after Tuesday night again.
[37:51.700 --> 37:52.700]  OK.
[37:52.700 --> 38:02.700]  Mark, David, thank you both very much.
[38:02.700 --> 38:05.700]  Now, two stories about the changing portrait of America.
[38:05.700 --> 38:08.700]  First, a different kind of life in the suburbs.
[38:08.700 --> 38:18.700]  Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people living below the poverty line in U.S. suburbs increased by more than 50 percent, a trend that accelerated during the recession.
[38:18.700 --> 38:24.700]  It's happening in places that have long been middle class as well as in richer neighborhoods.
[38:24.700 --> 38:29.700]  Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago has our story.
[38:29.700 --> 38:34.700]  DuPage County, Illinois is one of the wealthiest counties in the country.
[38:34.700 --> 38:41.700]  Comfortable homes sit on tree-lined streets in the suburb of Wheaton, eight miles west of Chicago.
[38:41.700 --> 38:45.700]  Upscale restaurants and shops lie in the historic downtown.
[38:45.700 --> 38:53.700]  But there is another side to DuPage County, one that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.
[38:53.700 --> 38:59.700]  It includes packed food pantries and crowds at the county welfare office.
[38:59.700 --> 39:06.700]  Candace King coordinates human services in DuPage County, and she has watched poverty grow.
[39:06.700 --> 39:08.700]  It's exploded.
[39:08.700 --> 39:17.700]  In the 16 years that I've been in my job, it has gone from something that was rarely encountered in this community,
[39:17.700 --> 39:23.700]  and certainly no one thought it was here, to an issue that we encounter every day.
[39:23.700 --> 39:30.700]  Over the last 20 years, poverty in DuPage County has grown by 185 percent.
[39:30.700 --> 39:40.700]  Nearly 60,000 people here live in poverty, defined by the federal government as earning $22,350 a year for a family of four.
[39:40.700 --> 39:47.700]  And now a Brookings Institute analysis of census data finds that for the first time in the Chicago area,
[39:47.700 --> 39:53.700]  there are more people in poverty in the suburbs than in the city.
[39:53.700 --> 39:58.700]  In this Wheaton housing complex, 11 of the townhomes are in foreclosure.
[39:58.700 --> 40:07.700]  After almost two years of trying, 43-year-old Katherine Aravosis was finally able to renegotiate her mortgage and save her home.
[40:07.700 --> 40:12.700]  But she and her two children live far below the poverty line.
[40:12.700 --> 40:15.700]  Aravosis had a middle-class upbringing.
[40:15.700 --> 40:24.700]  Her father was a college professor, and in 2008, she got her second master's degree, this one in elementary education.
[40:24.700 --> 40:31.700]  But because of cuts in state education funding, she hasn't been able to find a full-time teaching job.
[40:31.700 --> 40:40.700]  Last year, she made $11,000 as a substitute teacher, far less than what she needs to support her two children.
[40:40.700 --> 40:49.700]  It has been hard for me because I want to provide for them in a way my parents provided for me.
[40:49.700 --> 40:58.700]  I never knew what my parents made. I never had to worry about a thing.
[40:58.700 --> 41:06.700]  We just lived a really stable, typical middle-class existence.
[41:06.700 --> 41:11.700]  And for my children, they don't have that sense of security that I had.
[41:11.700 --> 41:16.700]  They know when I'm stressed, and that hurts.
[41:16.700 --> 41:24.700]  Aravosis is part of the newly poor demographic that accounts for much of the rise in poverty in the suburbs.
[41:24.700 --> 41:32.700]  Ten years ago, she and her husband, an architect, were earning a six-figure income and living in a five-bedroom home in Wheaton.
[41:32.700 --> 41:35.700]  They divorced in 2004.
[41:35.700 --> 41:43.700]  Her former husband's architectural commissions dried up in 2008, and he has had trouble making child support payments.
[41:43.700 --> 41:54.700]  Aravosis tried to get Medicaid for her children, but the state threatened to take her former husband's architect license because of lack of child support, and she backed off.
[41:54.700 --> 42:00.700]  It's those days when you get up and you really don't know what you're going to give your kids for dinner.
[42:00.700 --> 42:09.700]  And it can be a full-time job, finding out how am I going to get glasses for prescription as a year old?
[42:09.700 --> 42:13.700]  And where am I going to, you know, how do I go and get her the shot she needs?
[42:13.700 --> 42:26.700]  She's going to sixth grade, not having the health insurance, not having the basic things that people take for granted, being able to get their kid to the doctor.
[42:26.700 --> 42:31.700]  You know, when they come home and say, we need $5 for school, there's always something.
[42:31.700 --> 42:38.700]  And sometimes you have to say, I don't have it. I just don't have it. I'm sorry.
[42:38.700 --> 42:41.700]  Today, dinner comes from the local food pantry.
[42:41.700 --> 42:48.700]  She cooks in her crock pot, or microwave, since she can't afford to repair her broken stove.
[42:48.700 --> 42:55.700]  Like many of the suburban poor, Aravosis never thought she would need help buying food.
[42:55.700 --> 43:00.700]  I didn't expect to be using the food pantry, especially not on a regular basis.
[43:00.700 --> 43:09.700]  But, you know, I'm working and I'm not making enough money to make Ken's meat, so it's very humbling.
[43:09.700 --> 43:14.700]  But I swallowed my pride and I went to the People's Resource Center and I asked for help.
[43:14.700 --> 43:17.700]  Okay, I have to have pumpkin, right?
[43:17.700 --> 43:22.700]  Aravosis can fill up a shopping cart once a week at the People's Resource Center.
[43:22.700 --> 43:30.700]  The number of people using this food pantry in Wheaton has gone up by 200% in the last five years.
[43:30.700 --> 43:33.700]  There was a 30% jump in 2008 alone.
[43:33.700 --> 43:35.700]  Make sure all the cart handles are clean.
[43:35.700 --> 43:42.700]  The Resource Center's program director, Melissa Travis, says many of their clients are new to poverty.
[43:42.700 --> 43:49.700]  Oftentimes, the first time they come, they break into tears because they can't imagine that they would ever need help in a way like this.
[43:49.700 --> 43:54.700]  They've been people that have paid taxes, they're people that have volunteered and helped in places like this in the past,
[43:54.700 --> 43:57.700]  and now suddenly they have to go and seek out that assistance.
[43:57.700 --> 44:00.700]  So we give a lot of hugs.
[44:00.700 --> 44:04.700]  Mary Kay Hop could have used a hug the day she came to the food pantry.
[44:04.700 --> 44:09.700]  A registered nurse, Hop has been out of work for several years.
[44:09.700 --> 44:13.700]  She grew up in Wheaton and enjoyed a far different lifestyle.
[44:13.700 --> 44:19.700]  My dad had a good job. We had the big house and the cars and all those other things.
[44:19.700 --> 44:23.700]  You know, new wardrobe for school when that time of the year came around.
[44:23.700 --> 44:33.700]  I think that I'm one of the people who didn't have to go without much, and yeah, it's a whole flip side of that.
[44:33.700 --> 44:40.700]  Three months of unemployment brought Mariano Menendez and his family to the food pantry for the first time.
[44:40.700 --> 44:42.700]  Did you think you'd ever wind up coming to a food pantry for the first time?
[44:42.700 --> 44:45.700]  No, no, of course not, never, never.
[44:45.700 --> 44:52.700]  I've had good jobs, I've made good income, I've never had my wildest dreams.
[44:52.700 --> 44:55.700]  So yeah, I'm definitely very grateful for this.
[44:55.700 --> 44:59.700]  It's an amazing, amazing service that they offer here.
[44:59.700 --> 45:08.700]  The dramatic increase in poverty in suburban DuPage County mirrors the increase in poverty in suburban areas across the country.
[45:08.700 --> 45:13.700]  That leaves human service agencies struggling to meet the needs in their communities.
[45:13.700 --> 45:20.700]  Yet federal, state, and local funding still goes disproportionately to urban areas.
[45:20.700 --> 45:27.700]  That lack of federal and state resources to fight suburban poverty leaves existing agencies overwhelmed.
[45:27.700 --> 45:33.700]  All of the growth in poverty in the state of Illinois has been in the suburban area.
[45:33.700 --> 45:43.700]  My organization did an analysis of federal funding and some state funding and private philanthropic funding
[45:43.700 --> 45:52.700]  and found that the city of Chicago is getting up to four and five times more per poor person than DuPage County is.
[45:52.700 --> 45:56.700]  That is not news to Melissa Travis at the People's Resource Center.
[45:56.700 --> 46:02.700]  We are stretched about six weeks ago, the food pantry was as empty as I've ever seen it in six and a half years.
[46:02.700 --> 46:09.700]  We were trying to get through to our next delivery and just hoping that we had enough food to give everybody what they needed.
[46:09.700 --> 46:12.700]  It's been a devastating year in that regard.
[46:12.700 --> 46:17.700]  Unlike many of the newly poor who have a hard time finding the resources that are available,
[46:17.700 --> 46:22.700]  Catherine Erivozes has taken advantage of all the programs at the People's Resource Center.
[46:22.700 --> 46:29.700]  She has gotten clothes for herself and her kids and used the job counselors in her effort to find a full-time teaching job.
[46:29.700 --> 46:34.700]  But having to accept help has changed the way she thinks of herself.
[46:34.700 --> 46:40.700]  I always thought of myself as middle class. I had a middle class upbringing. I had middle class expectations.
[46:40.700 --> 46:47.700]  But the reality is that I'm not living a middle class lifestyle anymore.
[46:47.700 --> 46:53.700]  So no, I don't think so. I think I've fallen out of the middle class.
[46:53.700 --> 46:59.700]  Like many in her situation, she doesn't see much hope of things improving.
[46:59.700 --> 47:07.700]  And while she wants to stay in Wheaton, life in suburbia is far different than she ever imagined it would be.
[47:15.700 --> 47:21.700]  And finally tonight, our second story on the shifting trends in American life.
[47:21.700 --> 47:28.700]  This one's about the changing demographics of marriage. Ray Suarez has our conversation.
[47:28.700 --> 47:33.700]  For decades, the fact that a sizable majority of Americans were married shaped our politics,
[47:33.700 --> 47:38.700]  where we lived, where we worked, and what we thought when we heard the word family.
[47:38.700 --> 47:45.700]  Recently, the Pew Research Center took a look at all of us over 18 and found just 51 percent are married,
[47:45.700 --> 47:48.700]  down from more than 70 percent in 1960.
[47:48.700 --> 47:52.700]  Stephanie Koontz has been chronicling the changes in American marriage for a long time.
[47:52.700 --> 47:56.700]  She teaches history and family studies at Evergreen State College in Washington,
[47:56.700 --> 48:00.700]  and is director of research at the Council on Contemporary Families.
[48:00.700 --> 48:08.700]  Professor Koontz, welcome. We moved in 50 years from almost three quarters of married adults to barely half.
[48:08.700 --> 48:11.700]  What happened? What's pushing those numbers?
[48:11.700 --> 48:19.700]  Well, one of the things that you have to bear in mind is that 1960 was probably the most atypical year in 150 years.
[48:19.700 --> 48:25.700]  The age of marriage was at an all-time low. Half of all women were married before they got out of their teens,
[48:25.700 --> 48:28.700]  and the rate of marriage was at an all-time high.
[48:28.700 --> 48:33.700]  So what's happened since then, primarily what's driving this, is the rise in the age of marriage.
[48:33.700 --> 48:38.700]  It's now up to 26 for women and 28 for men.
[48:38.700 --> 48:42.700]  And that's actually a good thing, because the longer a woman delays marriage,
[48:42.700 --> 48:46.700]  right up into her early 30s, the lower her chances of divorce.
[48:46.700 --> 48:53.700]  But it does totally change the social weight of married households in our economy, our society, our politics.
[48:53.700 --> 48:58.700]  But not only has the age at first marriage risen, which of course that's just math.
[48:58.700 --> 49:01.700]  It makes a smaller number of adults married.
[49:01.700 --> 49:05.700]  But the number of people who have ever been married has also declined.
[49:05.700 --> 49:11.700]  Has marriage moved from being sort of culturally mandatory to more optional?
[49:11.700 --> 49:14.700]  Well, it's definitely moved to being more optional.
[49:14.700 --> 49:19.700]  That does not mean, though, that it's not just as valued, in fact, even more valued than it used to be.
[49:19.700 --> 49:23.700]  And it doesn't mean that the majority of Americans will not marry.
[49:23.700 --> 49:31.700]  I think that probably we're getting into a situation where a slightly larger number of people will never marry than in the past,
[49:31.700 --> 49:37.700]  15 percent, as opposed to 10 percent norm and 5 percent in the atypical 1950s.
[49:37.700 --> 49:42.700]  And of course we also have some people who will live alone after divorcing.
[49:42.700 --> 49:50.700]  But on the other hand, people are marrying for the first time in their 40s, 50s, and 60s at younger, at older ages than ever before.
[49:50.700 --> 49:57.700]  So for me, the main thing that I think we're facing here is that you can no longer assume that married couple households
[49:57.700 --> 50:01.700]  are going to be the main places where people make the major life decisions,
[50:01.700 --> 50:09.700]  whether that's entering into becoming sexually active, buying a house, entering long-term obligations,
[50:09.700 --> 50:13.700]  living with somebody that is a romantic partner, even having a child out of marriage.
[50:13.700 --> 50:19.700]  So we can no longer assume that married couple households are the only place where people incur obligations,
[50:19.700 --> 50:22.700]  make commitments, and need help in meeting their obligations.
[50:22.700 --> 50:30.700]  Well, you've talked about these big life moments, but have they responded to the fact that marriage has changed in this way over the last 50 years?
[50:30.700 --> 50:39.700]  Our tax laws, the way we build houses, the way we award property in courts, all kinds of things are still built around marriage.
[50:39.700 --> 50:46.700]  Absolutely, absolutely. Just look at work-family policies that just assume that it's only married couples who are going to have children,
[50:46.700 --> 50:53.700]  or just ignore the fact that singles also have responsibility for aging parents.
[50:53.700 --> 51:00.700]  There are so many ways in which we are still acting as though American families were like 1950s sitcoms,
[51:00.700 --> 51:03.700]  instead of the tremendous diversity.
[51:03.700 --> 51:10.700]  Most people will marry in America, but most people will spend substantial portions of their adult life outside marriage.
[51:10.700 --> 51:14.700]  It's a more fluid situation than it used to be. They'll move through. They may cohabit for a while.
[51:14.700 --> 51:17.700]  They may get married. They may get divorced.
[51:17.700 --> 51:26.700]  So these are the sorts of things that our social policy and even our emotional expectations of family life have to catch up with these changing realities.
[51:26.700 --> 51:32.700]  Along with the long-term trends, there are some short-term ones, too. The number of newlyweds is way down.
[51:32.700 --> 51:40.700]  Is that going to push that 50 percent threshold down so that married people are a minority of American adults?
[51:40.700 --> 51:46.700]  It may. It may. It depends how long this recession and the aftermath of the recession lasts.
[51:46.700 --> 51:52.700]  This is a long-term trend, the decline in the proportion of married couples in the population.
[51:52.700 --> 51:55.700]  But it's been definitely, I think, exacerbated by the recession.
[51:55.700 --> 52:02.700]  But on the other hand, we may see some bounce back after that, as we have in previous recessions and depressions when the marriage rate fell.
[52:02.700 --> 52:11.700]  How is who gets married shaped by income, education, factors like that?
[52:11.700 --> 52:22.700]  Well, one of the things we're seeing is a tremendous class divide in the access to stable, satisfying relationships, whether married or cohabiting.
[52:22.700 --> 52:29.700]  And the marriages of college-educated couples have been getting more and more stable. The divorce rates have been falling.
[52:29.700 --> 52:35.700]  That's not so for high school dropouts and even increasingly for high school-educated couples.
[52:35.700 --> 52:45.700]  It seems that one of the issues going on here is that we expect more of marriage than ever before, both as an economic partnership and as an emotional partnership.
[52:45.700 --> 53:01.700]  And as it becomes possible or less possible to count on a man having a steady job, the real wages of high school graduates today are $4 an hour lower in constant dollars than they were back in 1970.
[53:01.700 --> 53:06.700]  They're much more likely to experience job insecurity, much less likely to have pensions.
[53:06.700 --> 53:17.700]  So a woman, a low-income woman, making a decision about marrying such a man has to figure out, well, what are the benefits of this as compared to the possibility that we might divorce in the future
[53:17.700 --> 53:22.700]  or as compared to what would happen if I invested in my own education and earnings power.
[53:22.700 --> 53:26.700]  And so I do think we're seeing a class divide that's quite troublesome.
[53:26.700 --> 53:33.700]  I think that it partly reflects growing economic inequality in our society, but of course it exacerbates it as well.
[53:33.700 --> 53:36.700]  Stephanie Koontz, thanks for joining us.
[53:36.700 --> 53:39.700]  My pleasure, Ray. Thank you.
[53:45.700 --> 53:47.700]  And again, the major developments of the day.
[53:47.700 --> 53:54.700]  Republican presidential candidates spent another long day hunting for votes, going into the final weekend before the Iowa caucuses.
[53:54.700 --> 53:58.700]  Another poll showed Mitt Romney and Ron Paul atop the field.
[53:58.700 --> 54:04.700]  And an outpouring of protesters filled cities across Syria, and government troops opened fire again.
[54:04.700 --> 54:07.700]  The opposition said at least 22 people were killed.
[54:07.700 --> 54:11.700]  And to Hari Srinivasan for what's on the NewsHour online. Hari?
[54:11.700 --> 54:19.700]  There's much more on the coming Iowa caucuses, including Gwen Ifill's take on why the early contests matter and what some Republican voters want from the candidates.
[54:19.700 --> 54:25.700]  And Patchwork Nation's look at some GOP hopefuls betting big on sparsely populated counties in Iowa.
[54:25.700 --> 54:30.700]  Plus, on the rundown, view a slideshow of some of the biggest news stories of 2011 in the U.S. and around the world.
[54:30.700 --> 54:34.700]  All that and more is on our website, newshour.pbs.org. Jeff?
[54:34.700 --> 54:36.700]  And that's the NewsHour for tonight.
[54:36.700 --> 54:42.700]  On Monday, we'll look at the fallout in Egypt after the military raided U.S.-backed organizations.
[54:42.700 --> 54:43.700]  I'm Jeffrey Brown.
[54:43.700 --> 54:49.700]  And I'm Jim Lara. Washington Week can be seen later this evening on most PBS stations.
[54:49.700 --> 54:54.700]  We'll see you online and again here Monday evening. Have a nice New Year's holiday weekend.
[54:54.700 --> 54:56.700]  Thank you and good night.
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[59:24.700 --> 59:31.700]  It's easy with a free download from iTunes or KQED.org slash iPhone.
[59:31.700 --> 59:35.700]  You're watching Community Supported Television, KQED.