Detecting language using up to the first 30 seconds. Use `--language` to specify the language Detected language: English [00:00.000 --> 00:02.600] Anywhere and any way you want. [00:02.600 --> 00:05.000] Learn more at Xfinity.com. [00:16.640 --> 00:21.020] Another poll in Iowa shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul [00:21.020 --> 00:23.380] leading the Republican field. [00:23.380 --> 00:25.680] Good evening, I'm Jim Lara. [00:25.680 --> 00:27.080] And I'm Jeffrey Brown. [00:27.080 --> 00:29.360] On the news hour tonight from Des Moines, [00:29.360 --> 00:33.120] Judy Woodruff has the latest on the GOP race. [00:33.120 --> 00:36.880] With just three days left until the presidential caucuses, [00:36.880 --> 00:39.200] more than a third of Iowa Republicans [00:39.200 --> 00:41.960] say they still don't know whom they'll vote for. [00:41.960 --> 00:44.280] So candidates and their organizations [00:44.280 --> 00:47.680] are working overtime to get their supporters out. [00:47.680 --> 00:51.440] Judy talked with five of those undecided Iowans [00:51.440 --> 00:54.840] about what will determine their choices on Tuesday night. [00:54.840 --> 00:58.000] Plus, Mark Shields here and David Brooks in Iowa [00:58.000 --> 00:59.920] analyzed the week's news. [00:59.920 --> 01:03.480] Then Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago [01:03.480 --> 01:06.520] reports on the surprising rise of poverty [01:06.520 --> 01:09.440] in the suburban neighborhoods of one of the nation's [01:09.440 --> 01:11.720] wealthiest counties. [01:11.720 --> 01:12.640] It's exploded. [01:12.640 --> 01:15.760] It has gone from something that was rarely [01:15.760 --> 01:18.840] encountered in this community to an issue [01:18.840 --> 01:20.680] that we encounter every day. [01:20.680 --> 01:23.800] And RaceWires looks at marriage trends in America [01:23.800 --> 01:26.680] as fewer couples tie the knot, and those who do [01:26.680 --> 01:28.920] are older than ever. [01:28.920 --> 01:32.560] That's all ahead on tonight's NewsHour. [01:32.560 --> 01:37.960] Major funding for the PBS NewsHour has been provided by. [01:37.960 --> 01:40.040] Intelligent computing technology is making its way [01:40.040 --> 01:43.440] into everything from cars to retail signs to hospitals, [01:43.440 --> 01:46.200] creating new and rich experiences. [01:46.200 --> 01:48.560] Through Intel's philosophy of investing for the future, [01:48.560 --> 01:51.360] we're helping to bring these new capabilities to market. [01:51.360 --> 01:53.960] We're investing billions of dollars in R&D around the globe [01:53.960 --> 01:56.200] to help create the technologies that we hope [01:56.200 --> 01:58.600] will be the heart of tomorrow's innovations. [01:58.600 --> 02:01.320] I believe that by investing today in technological advances [02:01.320 --> 02:03.560] here at Intel, we can help make a better tomorrow. [02:08.040 --> 02:11.680] And by BNSF Railway. [02:11.680 --> 02:13.680] The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, [02:13.680 --> 02:16.200] working to solve social and environmental problems [02:16.200 --> 02:20.040] at home and around the world. [02:20.040 --> 02:23.320] And with the ongoing support of these institutions [02:23.320 --> 02:27.320] and foundations. [02:27.320 --> 02:31.720] And this program was made possible by the Corporation [02:31.720 --> 02:35.280] for Public Broadcasting and by contributions [02:35.280 --> 02:39.600] to your PBS station from viewers like you. [02:39.600 --> 02:40.120] Thank you. [02:43.840 --> 02:45.560] Republican presidential candidates [02:45.560 --> 02:48.640] spent another long day hunting for votes in Iowa. [02:48.640 --> 02:50.520] They were heading into the final weekend [02:50.520 --> 02:52.920] before the presidential election season officially [02:52.920 --> 02:57.200] opens with Tuesday night's caucuses. [02:57.200 --> 02:59.280] The weather turned colder and windy, [02:59.280 --> 03:01.680] but Mitt Romney, warm to his audience, [03:01.680 --> 03:05.200] as another new poll, this one from NBC Marist, [03:05.200 --> 03:07.680] showed him pacing the field. [03:07.680 --> 03:10.520] If you can get out here in this cold and this wind [03:10.520 --> 03:12.400] and a little bit of rain coming down, [03:12.400 --> 03:14.200] then you can sure get out on Tuesday night. [03:14.200 --> 03:17.000] And you can sure find a few people to bring with you. [03:17.000 --> 03:19.280] One key supporter showed up today, [03:19.280 --> 03:21.360] New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, [03:21.360 --> 03:23.800] campaigning with Romney in West Des Moines. [03:23.800 --> 03:26.040] It really energizes me, the young people. [03:26.040 --> 03:29.640] Texas Congressman Ron Paul was either tied for first [03:29.640 --> 03:31.080] or a close second. [03:31.080 --> 03:35.720] But 41% in the NBC poll said his libertarian leanings [03:35.720 --> 03:37.880] make him unacceptable. [03:37.880 --> 03:40.880] Newt Gingrich had been the Iowa frontrunner just a few weeks [03:40.880 --> 03:43.280] back, but has fallen far behind. [03:43.280 --> 03:45.880] In Des Moines today, remembering his late mother's [03:45.880 --> 03:48.400] mental health problems, he grew emotional. [03:48.400 --> 03:51.720] And my whole emphasis on brain science comes in directly [03:51.720 --> 04:01.920] from dealing with the real problems of real people [04:01.920 --> 04:03.320] in my family. [04:03.320 --> 04:05.160] And so it's not a theory. [04:05.160 --> 04:06.880] It's, in fact, my mother. [04:06.880 --> 04:09.240] This is very personal for me. [04:09.240 --> 04:10.600] It's not just political. [04:10.600 --> 04:12.200] It's not just public. [04:12.200 --> 04:15.440] The moment recalled Hillary Clinton's emotional moment [04:15.440 --> 04:19.480] just before the 2008 Democratic primary in New Hampshire. [04:19.480 --> 04:21.400] She went on to win there. [04:21.400 --> 04:25.360] Back in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum [04:25.360 --> 04:28.400] continued pressing to add to his late surge. [04:28.400 --> 04:30.920] He's now running third. [04:30.920 --> 04:34.240] Another former frontrunner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, [04:34.240 --> 04:39.440] was running fourth or fifth, depending on the poll. [04:39.440 --> 04:42.160] And Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman, [04:42.160 --> 04:46.320] who lost two top staffers this week, was trailing the field. [04:46.320 --> 04:49.280] She discounted the low turnout at a meet and greet event [04:49.280 --> 04:51.040] in early Iowa this afternoon. [04:51.040 --> 04:54.120] I guess our effort wasn't to bring crowds out. [04:54.120 --> 04:55.400] We were just dropping in. [04:55.400 --> 04:59.200] As the weekend arrived, the race in Iowa remained fluid. [04:59.200 --> 05:02.440] Many likely caucus-goers said they were still deciding [05:02.440 --> 05:05.600] on which candidate to support come Tuesday. [05:05.600 --> 05:08.560] Judy Woodruff is in Iowa reporting for us through the voting [05:08.560 --> 05:10.040] next Tuesday night. [05:10.040 --> 05:13.480] I spoke with her a short time ago in Des Moines. [05:13.480 --> 05:15.160] So, Judy, for a long time, it seemed [05:15.160 --> 05:17.840] Mitt Romney wasn't going to fight that hard in Iowa, [05:17.840 --> 05:20.760] but no more, right? [05:20.760 --> 05:21.680] Well, that's right, Jeff. [05:21.680 --> 05:22.440] It looks that way. [05:22.440 --> 05:24.360] The first thing we need to say is, what a large number [05:24.360 --> 05:26.800] of undecided voters there still are in Iowa. [05:26.800 --> 05:29.000] And you'll hear a little bit more about that in a minute [05:29.000 --> 05:31.760] when you see the interview I did with some voters last night. [05:31.760 --> 05:33.560] But having said that, you are right. [05:33.560 --> 05:37.520] Mitt Romney on top in two of the most recent polls, [05:37.520 --> 05:39.560] right at around 25%. [05:39.560 --> 05:42.280] That seems to be so far a ceiling for him. [05:42.280 --> 05:44.360] That's the same percentage of the vote Mitt Romney [05:44.360 --> 05:47.240] had four years ago when he lost. [05:47.240 --> 05:50.640] Because at that point, the conservative vote in Iowa [05:50.640 --> 05:53.600] was coalescing around one candidate, Mike Huckabee. [05:53.600 --> 05:57.680] This time, the conservative vote is looking around, [05:57.680 --> 06:00.080] spread among four or five different candidates. [06:00.080 --> 06:02.880] That's working to Mitt Romney's advantage. [06:02.880 --> 06:05.120] And Jeff, I should say, right hot on his heels [06:05.120 --> 06:07.960] are Ron Paul, the libertarian, attracting [06:07.960 --> 06:09.520] a lot of younger voters. [06:09.520 --> 06:12.160] And as you also mentioned, Rick Santorum, [06:12.160 --> 06:15.320] stressing his Christian conservative views. [06:15.320 --> 06:18.240] And maybe all that work that Rick Santorum has put into Iowa [06:18.240 --> 06:19.320] may be paying off. [06:19.320 --> 06:21.000] Well, tell me about Ron Paul. [06:21.000 --> 06:24.200] Speaking of Ron Paul, you were at an event of his last night. [06:24.200 --> 06:25.280] Now, what did you see? [06:25.280 --> 06:28.520] Where is the support coming from? [06:28.520 --> 06:30.280] It is coming from there. [06:30.280 --> 06:34.840] It's traditional that a chunk of the Iowa Republican vote [06:34.840 --> 06:36.480] tends to be libertarian. [06:36.480 --> 06:40.680] And of course, that is Ron Paul's philosophy. [06:40.680 --> 06:44.200] So that it's a lot of it is young people, college students. [06:44.200 --> 06:46.600] You go to a college campus, you talk to many of them. [06:46.600 --> 06:48.640] They're very excited about Ron Paul. [06:48.640 --> 06:51.160] His vote is very enthusiastic. [06:51.160 --> 06:52.320] It's loyal. [06:52.320 --> 06:53.880] They are going to turn out. [06:53.880 --> 06:55.560] The question is, how large are they? [06:55.560 --> 06:59.400] Because there's a sizable percentage of Iowa Republicans [06:59.400 --> 07:01.800] who say they could never vote for Ron Paul, [07:01.800 --> 07:04.000] because they don't like his foreign policy. [07:04.000 --> 07:06.320] But he is going to get a significant turnout. [07:06.320 --> 07:09.680] He's got students in the state who've come in from other parts [07:09.680 --> 07:12.000] of the country who are working for him. [07:12.000 --> 07:14.800] Even though I should say, Jeff, Ron Paul himself [07:14.800 --> 07:17.040] is going home to Texas for the weekend [07:17.040 --> 07:19.360] to celebrate New Year's Eve with his family. [07:19.360 --> 07:23.960] Now, beyond it getting cold, what about atmospherics, [07:23.960 --> 07:25.040] if I can use that word? [07:25.040 --> 07:29.000] What's your sense there of how worked up people are? [07:29.000 --> 07:31.760] What are the campaigns going through as they [07:31.760 --> 07:35.120] go into the real crunch time? [07:35.120 --> 07:37.160] Well, they're all gearing up. [07:37.160 --> 07:38.960] We ran in this morning at a hotel. [07:38.960 --> 07:42.400] We ran into a name that's, I think, familiar to many [07:42.400 --> 07:45.720] of our viewers, Joe Albaugh, who was President George W. [07:45.720 --> 07:49.040] Bush's head of FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management [07:49.040 --> 07:49.640] Administration. [07:49.640 --> 07:53.480] He's working for Rick Perry, organizing the state. [07:53.480 --> 07:55.880] And the way he put it today, he said, [07:55.880 --> 07:58.720] at this stage of the game, you've identified your supporters. [07:58.720 --> 07:59.880] It's all mechanics. [07:59.880 --> 08:01.760] It's getting those people out. [08:01.760 --> 08:03.480] The people who liked you from the beginning, [08:03.480 --> 08:06.160] the people who are still undecided. [08:06.160 --> 08:08.920] The Romney campaign, working the state very hard, [08:08.920 --> 08:13.280] they say they've only seen about 10% of what we're doing. [08:13.280 --> 08:15.440] 90% of it's been underground. [08:15.440 --> 08:16.880] We're getting people out. [08:16.880 --> 08:19.200] You ask about enthusiasm everywhere you go. [08:19.200 --> 08:20.680] Even Democrats will tell you they're [08:20.680 --> 08:23.040] excited to see Iowa getting attention. [08:23.040 --> 08:24.840] They're excited to see the press here, [08:24.840 --> 08:26.600] even if they don't like any of these candidates [08:26.600 --> 08:29.960] and they don't plan to vote for them in November. [08:29.960 --> 08:32.000] These caucuses are still a big deal. [08:32.000 --> 08:35.520] So we expect a lot of attention on Tuesday night. [08:35.520 --> 08:37.720] All right, Judy Woodruff is in Des Moines, [08:37.720 --> 08:39.360] and we'll be there through Tuesday night. [08:39.360 --> 08:41.560] Thanks a lot, Judy. [08:41.560 --> 08:42.280] Thank you. [08:42.280 --> 08:44.440] Still to come on the News Hour tonight. [08:44.440 --> 08:47.320] Iowa voters still making up their minds. [08:47.320 --> 08:49.360] Shields and Brooks. [08:49.360 --> 08:51.480] Poverty in the suburbs. [08:51.480 --> 08:54.880] And the decline in Americans marrying. [08:54.880 --> 08:56.800] But first, the other news of this day. [08:56.800 --> 08:58.880] Here's Hari Srinivasan. [08:58.880 --> 09:01.040] An outpouring of anti-government protesters [09:01.040 --> 09:03.040] filled cities across Syria today. [09:03.040 --> 09:06.200] It marked a new challenge to President Bashar al-Assad. [09:06.200 --> 09:10.160] The opposition reported as many as 250,000 people turned out [09:10.160 --> 09:11.840] in both Idlib and Hama. [09:11.840 --> 09:13.480] And there were many thousands more [09:13.480 --> 09:15.680] in homes, Douma and Daraa. [09:15.680 --> 09:19.040] Protesters said troops gunned down at least 22 people. [09:19.040 --> 09:21.400] We have a report narrated by Andy Davies of Independent [09:21.400 --> 09:23.160] Television News. [09:23.160 --> 09:24.440] Al-Assad, Al-Assad. [09:24.440 --> 09:27.680] Homs, in the northwest of Syria this morning. [09:27.680 --> 09:29.960] Some are now calling this the Marta City, [09:29.960 --> 09:32.640] given the numbers killed here in recent months. [09:32.640 --> 09:34.800] In front of the camera reads the message, [09:34.800 --> 09:37.280] this is the Friday for marching towards the squares [09:37.280 --> 09:38.880] of freedom. [09:38.880 --> 09:41.360] And so they did, gathering in their thousands [09:41.360 --> 09:45.240] in the city's main square, significantly for the first time [09:45.240 --> 09:45.880] in months. [09:53.240 --> 09:55.600] In towns across Syria, the opposition movement [09:55.600 --> 09:58.880] rallied its support base following Friday prayers. [09:58.880 --> 10:02.360] Hundreds of thousands reportedly took to the streets, [10:02.360 --> 10:04.760] emboldened perhaps by the recent arrival [10:04.760 --> 10:08.600] of yellow-vested Arab League monitors in the country. [10:08.600 --> 10:11.840] This intended as a statement to those observers, [10:11.840 --> 10:14.800] regime violence will not quell this uprising. [10:14.800 --> 10:29.080] This footage was apparently recorded today in Douma. [10:29.080 --> 10:33.160] It's just six miles from the center of the capital Damascus. [10:33.160 --> 10:35.960] It's not clear what caused this particular explosion, [10:35.960 --> 10:39.520] but opposition activists alleged Syrian security forces [10:39.520 --> 10:45.200] had thrown nail bombs into the crowd. [10:45.200 --> 10:48.400] There was violence documented also in the city of Hamar. [10:48.400 --> 10:53.960] Five were shot dead here today, alleged one activist. [10:53.960 --> 10:55.680] A fortnight ago, the United Nations [10:55.680 --> 10:58.320] estimated that more than 5,000 had been killed [10:58.320 --> 11:02.200] by Syrian security forces since the uprising began. [11:02.200 --> 11:06.920] One influential campaign group says it's now more than 6,000. [11:06.920 --> 11:09.280] It's a figure disputed by the government [11:09.280 --> 11:11.760] and again today by its media. [11:11.760 --> 11:13.520] This reporter claims he's tracked down [11:13.520 --> 11:15.560] a number of people who were supposedly [11:15.560 --> 11:18.000] killed by security forces. [11:18.000 --> 11:20.000] State Run TV was broadcasting today [11:20.000 --> 11:23.560] live from the center of Damascus and other cities. [11:23.560 --> 11:27.640] They were showing rallies in support of al-Assad's regime. [11:27.640 --> 11:29.480] In Pakistan today, at least nine people [11:29.480 --> 11:32.320] were killed on a car bomb exploded in the city of Quetta [11:32.320 --> 11:34.560] outside the home of a local politician. [11:34.560 --> 11:36.800] Pakistani television showed video of victims being [11:36.800 --> 11:39.560] rushed to a nearby hospital, more than 20 people [11:39.560 --> 11:40.840] were wounded there. [11:40.840 --> 11:43.000] Spain has imposed new austerity measures, [11:43.000 --> 11:46.800] including a temporary tax hike to raise almost $8 billion. [11:46.800 --> 11:49.280] The two-year increase would affect the wealthy. [11:49.280 --> 11:51.160] The newly elected center-right government [11:51.160 --> 11:55.320] also announced more than $11 billion in spending cuts today. [11:55.320 --> 11:57.280] These are all part of efforts to rein [11:57.280 --> 11:59.080] in the country's growing debt. [11:59.080 --> 12:01.880] Wall Street stumbled on the last trading day of the year [12:01.880 --> 12:03.920] with nothing to give the market much of a boost. [12:03.920 --> 12:06.600] The Dow Jones industrial average lost 69 points [12:06.600 --> 12:08.800] to close at 12,217. [12:08.800 --> 12:11.920] The Nasdaq fell eight points to close at 2,605. [12:11.920 --> 12:15.760] For the year, the Dow gained 5%, 5.5%, [12:15.760 --> 12:18.120] and the Nasdaq fell nearly 2%. [12:18.120 --> 12:20.680] The Standard and Poor's 500 finished the year down [12:20.680 --> 12:22.720] less than a tenth of a point. [12:22.720 --> 12:25.280] Two NASA satellites are set to start orbiting the moon [12:25.280 --> 12:26.680] over New Year's weekend. [12:26.680 --> 12:28.360] The probes were launched in September [12:28.360 --> 12:31.280] as part of the GRAIL mission for gravity, recovery, [12:31.280 --> 12:33.080] and interior laboratory. [12:33.080 --> 12:35.480] Each satellite is about the size of a washing machine. [12:35.480 --> 12:39.200] There to fly in tandem to map the moon's gravitational field, [12:39.200 --> 12:43.400] that data could reveal the moon's interior and how it formed. [12:43.400 --> 12:44.840] Those are some of today's major stories. [12:44.840 --> 12:46.360] Now back to Jim. [12:46.360 --> 12:48.840] And we return to Iowa. [12:48.840 --> 12:51.360] Last evening, Judy Woodruff spoke with five [12:51.360 --> 12:55.920] still undecided voters, all registered Republicans. [12:55.920 --> 12:59.280] They were selected with the help of civic and educational [12:59.280 --> 13:01.800] organizations in Iowa. [13:01.800 --> 13:04.120] Thank you all for joining us, and to Jim Carly [13:04.120 --> 13:05.960] for hosting us in your home. [13:05.960 --> 13:06.720] You're welcome. [13:06.720 --> 13:08.480] As you look at the country, how do you [13:08.480 --> 13:10.480] think things are going overall? [13:10.480 --> 13:13.480] I think we're going in the wrong direction. [13:13.480 --> 13:16.920] I think that there needs to be a 360 turnaround [13:16.920 --> 13:20.160] into where we're going now with the economy. [13:20.160 --> 13:24.200] And I think also our world standing has declined. [13:24.200 --> 13:28.240] We read that the Iowa economy is doing pretty well, Jim. [13:28.240 --> 13:32.360] Your unemployment rate overall is pretty good. [13:32.360 --> 13:35.120] But you still have a pretty negative view [13:35.120 --> 13:35.920] about the economy. [13:35.920 --> 13:36.480] Is that right? [13:36.480 --> 13:39.120] Well, my wife and I were both retired. [13:39.120 --> 13:40.480] We have our pensions, but we also [13:40.480 --> 13:42.960] have investments, which took a pretty big hit. [13:42.960 --> 13:45.840] And it's the uncertainty of what's going to happen. [13:45.840 --> 13:46.840] We're doing fine now. [13:46.840 --> 13:50.520] But when it's not doing anything to get better, [13:50.520 --> 13:54.240] and Congress can't agree on what day of the week it is, [13:54.240 --> 13:56.400] how are we ever going to get anything solved? [13:56.400 --> 13:58.240] So we are quite concerned about the future [13:58.240 --> 13:59.600] and what's going to happen there. [13:59.600 --> 14:00.960] B.J., what about for you? [14:00.960 --> 14:02.760] I mean, personally, how do you think [14:02.760 --> 14:05.680] things are going for you, for your family? [14:05.680 --> 14:07.240] Right now, things are a little bit better. [14:07.240 --> 14:10.240] But we've had some tough times. [14:10.240 --> 14:13.080] When I say that, I've never clipped a coupon in my life. [14:13.080 --> 14:16.080] And now I take the Sunday paper not to read the news, [14:16.080 --> 14:18.160] but to go through the coupons and see what's in there. [14:18.160 --> 14:22.440] And I may only save $5, but I'm so excited about that $5. [14:22.440 --> 14:23.640] And, Dave, what about you? [14:23.640 --> 14:26.440] Well, I personally, being self-employed, [14:26.440 --> 14:29.240] being in the car business, I've been pretty affected by it. [14:29.240 --> 14:31.600] I think a lot of the small dealers have been hurt. [14:31.600 --> 14:34.560] The impending crisis with the no lending [14:34.560 --> 14:37.200] and people are unsure of how to spend their money [14:37.200 --> 14:40.200] or when to spend their money or if they should spend their money, [14:40.200 --> 14:42.920] I think that's put a hurt on everybody. [14:42.920 --> 14:45.960] People just don't have the money to spend it right now. [14:45.960 --> 14:48.040] And if we can get the economy going, [14:48.040 --> 14:50.160] it'll heal all the social problems. [14:50.160 --> 14:52.320] The social problems will all be by themselves. [14:52.320 --> 14:54.280] We just need to get the economy going right now. [14:54.280 --> 14:58.520] Sam, how do you see the importance of this election [14:58.520 --> 15:01.320] and how closely have you been following it? [15:01.320 --> 15:02.840] I've been following it very closely. [15:02.840 --> 15:04.600] I've been lucky enough to shake the hand [15:04.600 --> 15:07.920] of every presidential candidate and look them in the eye, [15:07.920 --> 15:10.200] which I think says a lot about being in Iowa. [15:10.200 --> 15:14.080] And you can also learn a lot from that exchange. [15:14.080 --> 15:15.640] I think this election is really going [15:15.640 --> 15:19.320] to be a referendum on some really important issues [15:19.320 --> 15:20.080] to this country. [15:20.080 --> 15:25.040] I think spending, how to balance the budget, the national debt, [15:25.040 --> 15:26.400] all those issues are really going [15:26.400 --> 15:28.360] to be decided by this election. [15:28.360 --> 15:31.320] And the American people are going to have to decide what [15:31.320 --> 15:34.440] solutions we want to go about to solve those problems. [15:34.440 --> 15:36.360] BJ, what do you think right now? [15:36.360 --> 15:37.760] I mean, where are you leaning? [15:37.760 --> 15:40.880] The caucuses are just a few days away. [15:40.880 --> 15:44.440] I'm leaning toward Newt Gingrich. [15:44.440 --> 15:47.160] I've been leaning that way for a while, [15:47.160 --> 15:49.720] because I think he's authentic. [15:49.720 --> 15:54.240] He has success working with the opposite party. [15:54.240 --> 16:00.280] And he seems to have a vision for the future. [16:00.280 --> 16:03.960] Is there anybody else you're thinking about other than [16:03.960 --> 16:05.240] Gingrich at this point? [16:05.240 --> 16:09.560] I really like Michelle Bachman, because if you want to know [16:09.560 --> 16:12.680] the truth, I'd like to see any man, [16:12.680 --> 16:14.640] and I suppose this is a feminist perspective, [16:14.640 --> 16:19.600] I'd like to see any man start a business, go to school, [16:19.600 --> 16:23.640] raise five children, and have 23 foster children. [16:23.640 --> 16:25.560] I don't think a man could do that. [16:25.560 --> 16:27.720] So I think she runs circles around them. [16:27.720 --> 16:30.360] So and I like what she stands for. [16:30.360 --> 16:32.920] So she's a good multitasker. [16:32.920 --> 16:34.000] Sam, what about you? [16:34.000 --> 16:35.840] Yeah, it seems to me with a lot of these candidates, [16:35.840 --> 16:37.560] I'm leaning away. [16:37.560 --> 16:39.600] And so I think two candidates that I'm leaning towards [16:39.600 --> 16:43.200] would be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. [16:43.200 --> 16:46.600] I think looking at their records, Mitt Romney's [16:46.600 --> 16:49.360] been a turnaround artist his entire career. [16:49.360 --> 16:51.520] And I think that he could do a really great job turning [16:51.520 --> 16:52.920] around the economy. [16:52.920 --> 16:55.760] And then Ron Paul really speaks to me as a young person. [16:55.760 --> 16:57.720] He's got a great youth following, [16:57.720 --> 17:01.440] and I really like a lot of his libertarian stances. [17:01.440 --> 17:03.080] What about you, Jim? [17:03.080 --> 17:05.400] Are you where are you leaning right now? [17:05.400 --> 17:08.000] Well, if I vote principles, which I'm really leaning at [17:08.000 --> 17:10.280] just recently here, things have happened, [17:10.280 --> 17:11.880] and I'm standing for that would put me [17:11.880 --> 17:14.440] in the Rick Santorum camp. [17:14.440 --> 17:17.400] I like the principles that he has. [17:17.400 --> 17:19.920] I think that's where a lot of our problem is. [17:19.920 --> 17:22.640] We don't have virtuous and moral leaders. [17:22.640 --> 17:23.520] Victoria, what about you? [17:23.520 --> 17:27.560] Where is your head right now, or heart, or both? [17:27.560 --> 17:29.240] It really is a struggle. [17:29.240 --> 17:30.440] I'm just being honest. [17:30.440 --> 17:31.160] I don't know. [17:31.160 --> 17:33.240] I don't have that. [17:33.240 --> 17:35.960] It was so funny because for Huckabee, I was like, yes, [17:35.960 --> 17:36.800] this is my guy. [17:36.800 --> 17:38.120] I want him. [17:38.120 --> 17:38.960] I'm going to go out. [17:38.960 --> 17:39.960] It was freezing. [17:39.960 --> 17:41.560] It was snow and ice. [17:41.560 --> 17:44.160] Horrible last time. [17:44.160 --> 17:46.440] I don't feel that for any candidate right now. [17:46.440 --> 17:47.800] And that scares me. [17:47.800 --> 17:51.120] So that's why I'm just not loyal to any one person [17:51.120 --> 17:52.520] at this point. [17:52.520 --> 17:53.600] Dave, what about you? [17:53.600 --> 17:56.560] How are you leaning right now? [17:56.560 --> 17:58.280] We have a couple of candidates I think [17:58.280 --> 18:00.400] should have came to Iowa, should have campaigned here. [18:00.400 --> 18:02.880] I think Mr. Huntsman's one of them. [18:02.880 --> 18:04.640] He should have thrown his hat in the ring. [18:04.640 --> 18:06.880] He says a lot of good things. [18:06.880 --> 18:09.400] But whichever candidate is selected, [18:09.400 --> 18:14.760] we need to get behind the candidate and beat Obama in 2012. [18:14.760 --> 18:15.760] Jim, what about that? [18:15.760 --> 18:17.920] Because it sounds like you're saying something a little bit [18:17.920 --> 18:18.920] different from what Dave is saying. [18:18.920 --> 18:22.040] I don't think we need to go into the polls [18:22.040 --> 18:25.240] with the only thing on our mind is who can beat him. [18:25.240 --> 18:29.240] There's still 10 months to go before the election. [18:29.240 --> 18:31.200] And one of those down the bottom may [18:31.200 --> 18:34.440] be the rising star in actuality once they get out [18:34.440 --> 18:36.120] into the rest of the nation. [18:36.120 --> 18:38.600] And so I think we need to pick good candidate. [18:38.600 --> 18:41.360] I favor one that has good principles that I can trust. [18:41.360 --> 18:42.080] Santorum. [18:42.080 --> 18:43.760] Santorum, right? [18:43.760 --> 18:45.800] But I think part of the problem that we have in this, [18:45.800 --> 18:49.200] I've never seen this many people so undecided this late [18:49.200 --> 18:49.800] in the game. [18:49.800 --> 18:52.960] I think a lot of that has to do with the massive number [18:52.960 --> 18:55.320] of debates that we've had and the forum [18:55.320 --> 18:58.000] that the debates have had to where people are attacking each [18:58.000 --> 18:58.160] other. [18:58.160 --> 18:59.560] I mean, we're attacking our own. [18:59.560 --> 19:03.800] Anybody else on why it's so hard to make a decision this time? [19:03.800 --> 19:07.200] I mean, you've touched on the fact that it is hard, [19:07.200 --> 19:09.000] but any thoughts about why? [19:09.000 --> 19:09.640] Vijay. [19:09.640 --> 19:14.400] Mitt Romney cannot get past a certain level. [19:14.400 --> 19:17.080] And he couldn't go up against Huckabee last time, [19:17.080 --> 19:19.720] although he spent gobs and gobs and gobs of money. [19:19.720 --> 19:22.640] And to me, Mitt Romney is the status quo [19:22.640 --> 19:24.160] in the Republican Party. [19:24.160 --> 19:26.360] And I think a lot of us, I don't know how many of us [19:26.360 --> 19:28.480] are Tea Partiers or Libertarians, [19:28.480 --> 19:30.680] we're dissatisfied with the status quo of the Republican [19:30.680 --> 19:31.180] Party. [19:31.180 --> 19:33.840] And that's what Mitt Romney represents. [19:33.840 --> 19:37.160] So I think that's why there's the fight, not the infighting, [19:37.160 --> 19:39.360] but the turmoil in our party. [19:39.360 --> 19:40.520] Sam, what do you say to that? [19:40.520 --> 19:44.320] Because you said Romney was somebody you could support. [19:44.320 --> 19:46.320] In fact, you mentioned him first. [19:46.320 --> 19:50.040] Yeah, I think that Mitt Romney really [19:50.040 --> 19:51.120] brings a lot to the table. [19:51.120 --> 19:52.960] And if you look at him against Newt Gingrich, [19:52.960 --> 19:55.400] I mean, I don't mean to get Canada versus Canada here, [19:55.400 --> 19:58.800] but Newt Gingrich has really been the textbook Washington [19:58.800 --> 20:02.680] insiders for the last 40 years. [20:02.680 --> 20:05.200] And so I don't know if I'm comfortable having [20:05.200 --> 20:07.440] that background in the White House. [20:07.440 --> 20:09.800] Mitt Romney is not a true conservative. [20:09.800 --> 20:12.280] And we talk about being enthusiastic. [20:12.280 --> 20:14.680] Conservatives cannot get enthusiastic about him. [20:14.680 --> 20:18.320] And that's why I think that there's that vacuum. [20:18.320 --> 20:19.360] What about that, Jim? [20:19.360 --> 20:21.520] Because I think you're the one who said a few minutes ago, [20:21.520 --> 20:24.440] we need somebody who's going to stick with their principles. [20:24.440 --> 20:24.920] That's right. [20:24.920 --> 20:28.240] And my fear with Romney and why I don't like him [20:28.240 --> 20:32.360] is I believe government should be small. [20:32.360 --> 20:34.240] Smaller government, less cost. [20:34.240 --> 20:37.560] People are responsible, and they take care of themselves. [20:37.560 --> 20:40.160] My feeling is anybody that wants to institute health care, [20:40.160 --> 20:42.760] and I know they have a state constitution that says they can, [20:42.760 --> 20:45.160] but that's somebody that wants big government. [20:45.160 --> 20:46.880] Romney, I mean, he's a nice guy. [20:46.880 --> 20:47.800] He's polished. [20:47.800 --> 20:50.640] He's back for a second time around. [20:50.640 --> 20:54.280] But he's just not the person who I will get up [20:54.280 --> 20:57.400] and it's no storm to vote for. [20:57.400 --> 21:00.200] Some of you have mentioned Santorum. [21:00.200 --> 21:04.240] Let me ask you, Sam, why didn't you bring up Rick Santorum? [21:04.240 --> 21:06.160] Well, I think my problem with Rick Santorum, [21:06.160 --> 21:09.160] as well as some of the other maybe more socially conservative [21:09.160 --> 21:12.400] candidates, is I think they dwell too much on social issues. [21:12.400 --> 21:15.000] And while they might pass a credential check [21:15.000 --> 21:17.680] as far as their economic policies go, [21:17.680 --> 21:19.000] I just don't think they're people. [21:19.000 --> 21:23.760] I think they alienate moderate voters and independents. [21:23.760 --> 21:25.320] And while they might excite the base, [21:25.320 --> 21:28.280] I just don't see them doing well at all in a general election. [21:28.280 --> 21:30.440] When do you think you're going to make up your mind? [21:30.440 --> 21:32.480] Probably Tuesday. [21:32.480 --> 21:36.880] I'll have her done by Sunday, and then I'll think about it. [21:36.880 --> 21:39.320] Well, we appreciate all of you talking with us [21:39.320 --> 21:40.640] about these caucuses. [21:40.640 --> 21:42.760] Thank you very much. [21:42.760 --> 21:43.400] Thank you. [21:43.400 --> 21:44.360] You're very welcome. [21:44.360 --> 21:46.400] Thanks for having us. [21:46.400 --> 21:49.480] For the record, Texas Governor Rick Perry's name [21:49.480 --> 21:52.840] did not come up in Judy's discussion. [21:52.840 --> 21:55.520] As we heard in Judy's conversation, four years ago, [21:55.520 --> 21:57.600] it was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, [21:57.600 --> 21:59.520] who beat Mitt Romney and all others [21:59.520 --> 22:02.120] to win the Iowa Republican Caucus. [22:02.120 --> 22:04.320] His success came with the strong support [22:04.320 --> 22:07.000] of conservative evangelical Christians. [22:07.000 --> 22:08.880] Tonight's edition of Need to Know [22:08.880 --> 22:11.720] explores the power of the religious right in Iowa. [22:11.720 --> 22:15.000] This excerpt looks at the influence of one man in particular. [22:15.000 --> 22:18.280] The correspondent is Rick Carr. [22:18.280 --> 22:21.480] Bob Vander Plaats was chairman of Mike Huckabee's Iowa campaign [22:21.480 --> 22:22.520] in 08. [22:22.520 --> 22:25.600] Then he led a campaign against three state Supreme Court [22:25.600 --> 22:28.480] justices who ruled in favor of gay marriage [22:28.480 --> 22:31.320] and ended up driving them out of office. [22:31.320 --> 22:34.280] Now he runs an advocacy group for social conservatives [22:34.280 --> 22:35.880] called the Family Leader. [22:35.880 --> 22:39.360] And Fox News calls him a kingmaker in Iowa. [22:39.360 --> 22:41.880] The Los Angeles Times wrote that meeting with you [22:41.880 --> 22:44.040] is a prerequisite for any candidate who [22:44.040 --> 22:45.920] wants to compete in Iowa. [22:45.920 --> 22:46.760] Is that true? [22:46.760 --> 22:50.320] I don't know if it's a prerequisite to meet with me, [22:50.320 --> 22:54.720] but I believe it's the issues that our organization represents. [22:54.720 --> 23:01.800] And our supporters are very, very sincere about these issues. [23:01.800 --> 23:03.480] They're very interested in who's going [23:03.480 --> 23:06.840] to champion these issues. [23:06.840 --> 23:09.240] Our supporters are going to show up on caucus night. [23:09.240 --> 23:12.640] In November, the Family Leader hosted a forum for GOP [23:12.640 --> 23:13.600] Hopefuls. [23:13.600 --> 23:15.640] We don't need you to be Republican or Democrat, [23:15.640 --> 23:18.920] but we need you to be biblical. [23:18.920 --> 23:21.560] And the candidates lined up to tout their fealty [23:21.560 --> 23:24.400] to socially conservative positions. [23:24.400 --> 23:28.240] The left is prepared to impose intolerance [23:28.240 --> 23:31.800] and to drive out of existence traditional religion. [23:31.800 --> 23:33.720] They slammed abortion rights. [23:33.720 --> 23:37.440] I have supported the amendment that defines life at conception. [23:37.440 --> 23:41.640] As long as abortion is legal, at least according [23:41.640 --> 23:44.160] to the Supreme Court, legal in this country, [23:44.160 --> 23:45.520] we will never have rest. [23:45.520 --> 23:46.680] Gay marriage. [23:46.680 --> 23:51.000] The family is defined as one man, one woman, [23:51.000 --> 23:53.200] no other definition will do. [23:53.200 --> 23:55.480] And what they call Obamacare. [23:55.480 --> 23:57.600] Obamacare has to go because it's trying [23:57.600 --> 24:01.240] to tell us how to deliver health care in our states. [24:01.240 --> 24:04.440] The candidates came because conservative evangelical voters [24:04.440 --> 24:06.680] are organized and motivated. [24:06.680 --> 24:09.000] They turn up on caucus night. [24:09.000 --> 24:11.440] And endorsements from socially conservative groups [24:11.440 --> 24:13.760] like the Family Leader could turn one of them [24:13.760 --> 24:16.560] into the Mike Huckabee of the current campaign. [24:16.560 --> 24:18.480] But Van Der Plaat says none of them [24:18.480 --> 24:22.560] ended up stealing the hearts of Iowa's conservative evangelicals. [24:22.560 --> 24:25.200] We had six candidates that are Thanksgiving family for me. [24:25.200 --> 24:28.240] And I think it was my wife afterwards who said, [24:28.240 --> 24:31.440] you know, Bob, if we could take those six and put them in a blender [24:31.440 --> 24:34.000] and just have the strengths come out and have one candidate. [24:34.000 --> 24:37.000] And I said, darling, you're getting awfully close to cloning. [24:37.000 --> 24:40.560] But we would have a perfect candidate. [24:40.560 --> 24:42.440] And I think what we're realizing today, [24:42.440 --> 24:44.840] there is no perfect candidate. [24:44.840 --> 24:47.320] A post-cript, Bob Van Der Plaats ended up [24:47.320 --> 24:49.320] endorsing Rick Santorum. [24:49.320 --> 24:50.800] There were published reports last week [24:50.800 --> 24:53.080] that Van Der Plaats sought up to $1 million [24:53.080 --> 24:57.040] for his endorsement, allegations he vigorously denied. [24:57.040 --> 25:01.040] We need to know heirs on most PBS stations tonight. [25:01.040 --> 25:07.800] MUSIC [25:07.800 --> 25:10.800] And to the analysis of Shields and Brooks, [25:10.800 --> 25:13.040] syndicated columnist Mark Shields, [25:13.040 --> 25:15.480] New York Times columnist David Brooks. [25:15.480 --> 25:19.160] David from Iowa, do you have a big picture portrait [25:19.160 --> 25:23.400] of the setting, the scene there tonight? [25:23.400 --> 25:25.080] Well, there are some human interest stories. [25:25.080 --> 25:26.960] I got to see Newt Gingrich cry today. [25:26.960 --> 25:28.200] Something I'd never seen before. [25:28.200 --> 25:30.560] He was asking very personal questions about his life. [25:30.560 --> 25:34.000] And he talked about how he's sadder and slower than he used to be. [25:34.000 --> 25:35.480] And then he was asked about his mom, [25:35.480 --> 25:37.560] and his face just dissolved in tears. [25:37.560 --> 25:39.640] And the candidates are very tired. [25:39.640 --> 25:41.080] Gingrich's numbers are falling. [25:41.080 --> 25:42.480] They're under a lot of pressure. [25:42.480 --> 25:44.560] And so you got to see that human element. [25:44.560 --> 25:47.240] The big thing that comes from all the different campaigns [25:47.240 --> 25:48.600] is a sense of looking backward. [25:48.600 --> 25:50.960] There's a theme in almost every single race, [25:50.960 --> 25:53.920] which is America has lost something that it once had. [25:53.920 --> 25:55.360] And so we have to look backward. [25:55.360 --> 25:58.920] It's about restoration, restoring old values we've strayed. [25:58.920 --> 26:01.520] And this is a theme which is sort of a negative and pessimistic [26:01.520 --> 26:04.200] theme, an almost apocalyptic theme [26:04.200 --> 26:07.560] that one finds in Mitt Romney, one finds it in Gingrich, Rick [26:07.560 --> 26:09.320] Santorum, Ron Paul. [26:09.320 --> 26:12.920] It's all about we had this magic, and we've lost it. [26:12.920 --> 26:15.640] How do you see the big picture, Mark? [26:15.640 --> 26:18.640] I think the point David made is one worth repeating. [26:18.640 --> 26:21.840] That is, American campaigns are about the future. [26:21.840 --> 26:25.400] And this campaign has really been an awful lot about the past. [26:25.400 --> 26:29.600] And it's kind of fascinating to see if I like Rick Santorum [26:29.600 --> 26:33.240] really vault from nowhere after campaigning 99 counties, [26:33.240 --> 26:36.000] doing the classic meeting voters and so forth. [26:36.000 --> 26:40.640] But absent from his message that I get is any upbeat. [26:40.640 --> 26:44.040] I mean, there's sort of a gloom and doom to it. [26:44.040 --> 26:46.760] But I think, Jim, this has been a remarkable race. [26:46.760 --> 26:49.440] At separate times during this year, [26:49.440 --> 26:53.240] six different candidates have led in the polls in Iowa. [26:53.240 --> 26:56.000] So it's up for grabs. [26:56.000 --> 27:00.200] And it's very much Tuesday will determine who goes forward. [27:00.200 --> 27:04.760] I mean, some candidacies will end just outside of the Des Moines [27:04.760 --> 27:07.160] Airport on Wednesday morning. [27:07.160 --> 27:08.840] All right, let's talk about Romney for a moment. [27:08.840 --> 27:10.960] Beginning with you, David, how do you read the situation [27:10.960 --> 27:12.800] on Romney right now, where he stands, [27:12.800 --> 27:17.000] and what his prospects are in Iowa? [27:17.000 --> 27:18.480] Yeah, he's exuding confidence. [27:18.480 --> 27:20.200] I think his people are exuding confidence. [27:20.200 --> 27:22.720] I went to a rally this morning in the rain. [27:22.720 --> 27:26.120] And he was with Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey. [27:26.120 --> 27:29.320] And it was just a smooth, effective, not too long, [27:29.320 --> 27:30.600] but sort of a corporate race. [27:30.600 --> 27:33.440] It was like George Bush in year 2000. [27:33.440 --> 27:35.800] And what's interesting is the tactic it's taking. [27:35.800 --> 27:37.240] It's very short on policy. [27:37.240 --> 27:39.040] It's very long on patriotism. [27:39.040 --> 27:41.120] He talks about driving across the country, [27:41.120 --> 27:43.040] looking at the national parks. [27:43.040 --> 27:45.160] He talks, he sings, or at least recites, [27:45.160 --> 27:47.360] some verses from the Star-Spangled Banner. [27:47.360 --> 27:49.760] It's as if he's running to be Tom Sawyer. [27:49.760 --> 27:51.640] And I think it's a way to establish [27:51.640 --> 27:54.680] a connection with voters, even despite questions [27:54.680 --> 27:56.840] they may have about Mormonism or anything else. [27:56.840 --> 27:59.680] I think it's a way to distinguish in his eyes [27:59.680 --> 28:01.040] between him and Barack Obama. [28:01.040 --> 28:02.480] He's more mainstream. [28:02.480 --> 28:04.800] And then again, this theme of returning, [28:04.800 --> 28:07.520] as posing as Tom Sawyer, he's returning [28:07.520 --> 28:09.760] to some earlier values. [28:09.760 --> 28:11.280] And that may play this year. [28:11.280 --> 28:12.320] Mark is absolutely right. [28:12.320 --> 28:14.600] The Rick Santorum and a lot of the candidates [28:14.600 --> 28:15.480] are very negative. [28:15.480 --> 28:17.520] The guy who won it four years ago, Mike Huckabee, [28:17.520 --> 28:18.760] very positive. [28:18.760 --> 28:21.480] But the mood here has darkened appreciably. [28:21.480 --> 28:24.600] And maybe they're in tune with what the voters are hearing [28:24.600 --> 28:25.320] right now. [28:25.320 --> 28:27.320] But Mark, you heard what Judy said, [28:27.320 --> 28:29.720] that her feeling was that the polls show [28:29.720 --> 28:30.960] that there's a cap. [28:30.960 --> 28:33.360] That cap is still there for Romney. [28:33.360 --> 28:37.720] It's working to his advantage because everybody else [28:37.720 --> 28:39.360] is so split up, right? [28:39.360 --> 28:39.920] That's right, Jim. [28:39.920 --> 28:42.240] Nobody has been able to consolidate, for example, [28:42.240 --> 28:46.520] the religious conservative vote, although it [28:46.520 --> 28:49.200] seems that Rick Santorum has made great inroads there. [28:49.200 --> 28:53.280] But no, there seems to be a ceiling on Mitt Romney. [28:53.280 --> 28:55.600] It was kind of fascinating at the beginning [28:55.600 --> 28:58.600] of the month of December in the Gallup poll, [28:58.600 --> 29:04.880] he trailed Newt Gingrich at 37 to 23, a 14-point deficit. [29:04.880 --> 29:09.160] He now leads Newt Gingrich 27 to 22, all right? [29:09.160 --> 29:11.760] Now, it means Gingrich has plummeted and all the rest of it. [29:11.760 --> 29:13.200] Romney has just moved up, though. [29:13.200 --> 29:16.520] He's just broke the 25-point barrier. [29:16.520 --> 29:18.480] I think what Romney's campaign has been about [29:18.480 --> 29:20.920] is not so great expectations. [29:20.920 --> 29:24.560] I mean, they've tried to lower the expectations in Iowa [29:24.560 --> 29:25.080] all year. [29:25.080 --> 29:26.280] But David's right. [29:26.280 --> 29:30.360] I think there's a sense now that they could win in Iowa. [29:30.360 --> 29:32.800] Or even if Ron Paul wins, that's not the worst thing [29:32.800 --> 29:33.560] in the world to them. [29:33.560 --> 29:35.000] They feel in the long run. [29:35.000 --> 29:40.320] But the knockout punch in both Iowa and New Hampshire [29:40.320 --> 29:42.880] would do for him, the Romney people, [29:42.880 --> 29:46.120] feel what it did for George W. Bush in 2000, [29:46.120 --> 29:47.960] when he sewed up the Republican nomination, [29:47.960 --> 29:49.320] essentially. [29:49.320 --> 29:58.720] And in 2004, when John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire, [29:58.720 --> 30:02.320] of course, in 2000, he lost to John McCain in New Hampshire. [30:02.320 --> 30:05.800] But that one-two punch is really formidable. [30:05.800 --> 30:07.840] All right, now about Ron Paul. [30:07.840 --> 30:11.160] David, as Mark just said, Ron Paul's up there. [30:11.160 --> 30:13.960] And what is that going to mean? [30:13.960 --> 30:15.800] If you don't say he wins, that's one thing. [30:15.800 --> 30:18.120] But even if he comes in a close second, [30:18.120 --> 30:21.200] what's it going to mean for the race, generally, for Ron Paul [30:21.200 --> 30:23.880] to do that well in Iowa? [30:23.880 --> 30:25.520] Well, the thing the Romney people like [30:25.520 --> 30:27.040] is there are two main rivals right now, [30:27.040 --> 30:28.880] Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. [30:28.880 --> 30:31.240] People think Gingrich's campaign might have legs, [30:31.240 --> 30:33.200] or Rick Perry's campaign might have legs. [30:33.200 --> 30:35.080] But I don't think they're too worried about Santorum [30:35.080 --> 30:36.560] and Paul having legs. [30:36.560 --> 30:41.360] So having rivals like that is good for the Romney camp. [30:41.360 --> 30:43.360] The Paul people are young. [30:43.360 --> 30:44.280] They're organized. [30:44.280 --> 30:45.480] They're very diverse. [30:45.480 --> 30:49.320] There's some veterans, some older people, a lot of students, [30:49.320 --> 30:51.960] a lot of gold bugs, some people who want drug legalization. [30:51.960 --> 30:53.720] It's about as diverse a group of people [30:53.720 --> 30:55.360] as you can possibly imagine. [30:55.360 --> 30:58.240] And there's a supposition that Paul, like Santorum, [30:58.240 --> 31:00.960] probably is under polling, that there are more people [31:00.960 --> 31:03.800] and they're more mobilized, both in the libertarian camp [31:03.800 --> 31:05.520] and the social conservative camp. [31:05.520 --> 31:07.400] And so historically, people in those camps [31:07.400 --> 31:09.840] have done a little better than the final polls. [31:09.840 --> 31:12.440] So there's upside for him. [31:12.440 --> 31:15.080] And it's funny, the way he campaigns, [31:15.080 --> 31:17.400] he campaigns like the audience isn't there. [31:17.400 --> 31:20.040] He gives his talks, whether they're applauding not, [31:20.040 --> 31:22.240] listening not, he's going to tell you what he thinks. [31:22.240 --> 31:26.320] So there's no real superstar. [31:26.320 --> 31:28.280] There's no stump superstar who really [31:28.280 --> 31:31.440] can galvanize a crowd among this group, the way Huckabee did, [31:31.440 --> 31:33.960] the way John Edwards did, the way Barack Obama did, [31:33.960 --> 31:36.400] as a series of stump performers. [31:36.400 --> 31:38.400] I would say it's a below average year. [31:38.400 --> 31:42.840] And Paul, doing very well, is certainly not raising that average. [31:42.840 --> 31:46.400] How do you account for Santorum's surge? [31:46.400 --> 31:48.360] Just a quick thing on that, Paul. [31:48.360 --> 31:53.360] The word in 2000, authenticity, Ron Paul exudes authenticity. [31:53.360 --> 31:56.160] He says the same thing, where he goes, others trim, [31:56.160 --> 31:59.400] they pander, they play to the crowd, [31:59.400 --> 32:02.120] what do you want to hear? [32:02.120 --> 32:03.480] Ron Paul is just the opposite. [32:03.480 --> 32:08.440] And he has, unlike Santorum and even Gingrich at this point, [32:08.440 --> 32:11.800] he has money and the ability to raise money in small contributions [32:11.800 --> 32:12.960] from a lot of different people. [32:12.960 --> 32:14.840] But Santorum's been saying the same thing, too. [32:14.840 --> 32:16.200] Santorum has been. [32:16.200 --> 32:18.000] So Santorum and his own way on me. [32:18.000 --> 32:18.360] That's right. [32:18.360 --> 32:21.400] He has sounded the themes that have been the cradle [32:21.400 --> 32:23.600] of modern conservatism. [32:23.600 --> 32:28.120] Strong, muscular, foreign policy, social, religious [32:28.120 --> 32:32.520] conservatives, and economic, fiscal conservatism. [32:32.520 --> 32:38.480] And I think that is a sense in Iowa that he's worked for it. [32:38.480 --> 32:40.680] He's visited the 99 counties. [32:40.680 --> 32:42.800] He's done it the retail way. [32:42.800 --> 32:48.000] He's listened to the hairdressers and the auto mechanics. [32:48.000 --> 32:51.680] And I think that there is a connection point, [32:51.680 --> 32:54.040] and especially now with the religious and social [32:54.040 --> 32:55.920] conservatives, I think he's caught on. [32:55.920 --> 32:57.720] And that the others have fallen on. [32:57.720 --> 32:58.320] The others have. [32:58.320 --> 33:00.000] On the wayside, so hey, here's Santorum. [33:00.000 --> 33:01.640] Well, he never had the moment in the sun. [33:01.640 --> 33:03.600] The others were all Icarus. [33:03.600 --> 33:07.240] I mean, they got close to the sun, and then boom, boom, boom. [33:07.240 --> 33:10.200] How do you read Santorum, David? [33:10.200 --> 33:12.520] Yeah, to me, this is less about the candidates [33:12.520 --> 33:15.720] and their personalities and more about just raw demographics [33:15.720 --> 33:16.880] and philosophy. [33:16.880 --> 33:19.840] Year after year, there are a lot of social conservatives [33:19.840 --> 33:20.400] in this state. [33:20.400 --> 33:22.720] And this goes back to the time many elections ago [33:22.720 --> 33:25.640] when Pat Robertson did well here, let alone Mike Huckabee. [33:25.640 --> 33:27.720] And those social conservatives have always been here, [33:27.720 --> 33:30.040] and they're going to vote for a social conservative candidate [33:30.040 --> 33:31.920] and Santorum's homeschooler. [33:31.920 --> 33:33.600] He homeschools his kids. [33:33.600 --> 33:37.080] He's genuinely of the community, even though he is Catholic. [33:37.080 --> 33:38.640] And so they're going to go for that guy. [33:38.640 --> 33:41.280] There are genuinely a lot of libertarians [33:41.280 --> 33:42.600] among the voters here, and they're [33:42.600 --> 33:43.640] going to go for Ron Paul. [33:43.640 --> 33:45.520] And whether they perform well or not, [33:45.520 --> 33:47.360] it's almost beside the point at this point. [33:47.360 --> 33:49.800] Those people are going to express their point of view. [33:49.800 --> 33:52.120] And so there are just a lot of those voters in this state. [33:52.120 --> 33:54.160] Let's go back to Gingrich for a moment, David. [33:54.160 --> 33:56.200] You said you saw him cry today. [33:56.200 --> 34:00.720] His polls show that he has really dropped. [34:00.720 --> 34:01.560] And why? [34:01.560 --> 34:05.320] And does he have a chance of coming out of Iowa [34:05.320 --> 34:07.240] in any way that could give him leg? [34:07.240 --> 34:10.160] You said there's a possibility of legs for Gingrich. [34:10.160 --> 34:11.520] Why? [34:11.520 --> 34:12.800] I asked you three questions in one. [34:12.800 --> 34:13.480] He's just a candidate. [34:13.480 --> 34:15.760] Sorry about that. [34:15.760 --> 34:18.440] Well, he's a candidate who has a long reputation. [34:18.440 --> 34:19.520] And he's pretty good. [34:19.520 --> 34:20.800] I saw him today on the stump. [34:20.800 --> 34:23.200] And he gives good answers that get applause going. [34:23.200 --> 34:26.280] He's just a polished political performer. [34:26.280 --> 34:28.160] The reason he's falling primarily [34:28.160 --> 34:31.640] is that there's a lot of ads on TV these days in Iowa. [34:31.640 --> 34:34.520] And 47% of them are being run against Newt Gingrich. [34:34.520 --> 34:36.560] There's just a ton of negative ads. [34:36.560 --> 34:40.240] And he's got a lot that he freely admits he's vulnerable for. [34:40.240 --> 34:42.280] And so people are learning about the divorces. [34:42.280 --> 34:44.960] They're learning about the Freddie Mac lobbying. [34:44.960 --> 34:46.520] And they're just not happy. [34:46.520 --> 34:50.480] It's funny to watch him happen to run into him in a hotel lobby [34:50.480 --> 34:50.960] last night. [34:50.960 --> 34:52.720] And he was ebullient and very self-aware, [34:52.720 --> 34:54.080] very different sort of Newt Gingrich, [34:54.080 --> 34:56.400] a little more mature than I'd seen him, [34:56.400 --> 34:58.440] very aware of his problems and his possibilities. [34:58.440 --> 35:01.560] And then today, the emotional moment, [35:01.560 --> 35:03.760] I wouldn't bet on him rebounding. [35:03.760 --> 35:07.160] But he is someone who still can debate extremely well. [35:07.160 --> 35:09.440] And that argument that he uses time and time again, [35:09.440 --> 35:11.640] who do you want to see debating Barack Obama? [35:11.640 --> 35:12.840] That is one that resonates. [35:12.840 --> 35:14.240] So I wouldn't totally count him out, [35:14.240 --> 35:15.960] but I certainly wouldn't bet money on him. [35:15.960 --> 35:18.040] You wouldn't either, would you? [35:18.040 --> 35:21.400] I think I'm probably less bullish on Newt Gingrich's [35:21.400 --> 35:23.960] ability to bounce back than David. [35:23.960 --> 35:27.680] In 1996, after he lost, Bob Dole said, [35:27.680 --> 35:30.920] I was told that people did not like negative ads. [35:30.920 --> 35:32.160] I didn't run any. [35:32.160 --> 35:33.640] I lost. [35:33.640 --> 35:35.560] And I think we're seeing that with Newt Gingrich. [35:35.560 --> 35:41.000] I mean, David mentioned that 45, 47% of all the ads [35:41.000 --> 35:46.440] bought in Iowa in 2011 have been against Newt Gingrich. [35:46.440 --> 35:50.080] I mean, that leaves 55% for anybody [35:50.080 --> 35:51.520] else positive. [35:51.520 --> 35:54.120] Perhaps the most effective was Ron Paul's, [35:54.120 --> 35:56.920] which was the serial hypocrisy ad. [35:56.920 --> 35:58.120] So I think it's tough. [35:58.120 --> 36:01.360] There's an awful lot that has got back to him. [36:01.360 --> 36:05.000] I think probably the Freddie Mac has really [36:05.000 --> 36:07.440] hurt him with conservatives in general, [36:07.440 --> 36:09.640] and the historian explanation. [36:09.640 --> 36:12.520] Secondly, was really his pairing with Nancy Pelosi [36:12.520 --> 36:15.880] in that public service announcement on climate change. [36:15.880 --> 36:16.840] He never put that behind him. [36:16.840 --> 36:18.320] No, he really hasn't. [36:18.320 --> 36:22.960] On Iowa generally, both of you beginning with you, David, [36:22.960 --> 36:26.480] should Iowa matter as much as it appears to at this point? [36:26.480 --> 36:28.680] I mean, as we're talking about it, [36:28.680 --> 36:30.440] the whole world is talking about it right now. [36:30.440 --> 36:31.160] Should they be? [36:31.160 --> 36:35.320] Is this the way to choose candidates [36:35.320 --> 36:37.040] for president of the United States [36:37.040 --> 36:39.880] by starting with Iowa? [36:39.880 --> 36:40.800] Yeah, I still think so. [36:40.800 --> 36:43.120] I still visit still my favorite place [36:43.120 --> 36:44.560] to cover a political race. [36:44.560 --> 36:45.680] It's not the way it used to be. [36:45.680 --> 36:48.160] It's not just a George H.W. Bush driving around [36:48.160 --> 36:51.640] in a station wagon with one aide and maybe a press person. [36:51.640 --> 36:52.800] Now there's clumps of people. [36:52.800 --> 36:54.000] There's big buses. [36:54.000 --> 36:56.480] But it's still, it's more retail. [36:56.480 --> 36:58.720] The people are really run through their paces. [36:58.720 --> 37:00.520] Rick Perry tried. [37:00.520 --> 37:02.120] Couldn't make it here. [37:02.120 --> 37:04.680] Michelle Bachman, we saw what happened to her among voters [37:04.680 --> 37:05.880] here. [37:05.880 --> 37:07.600] I think it's still a good testing ground. [37:07.600 --> 37:09.960] Is it the most representative state in the country? [37:09.960 --> 37:11.400] Maybe not, but I still think it's [37:11.400 --> 37:14.560] a practiced, knowledgeable electorate who are very good [37:14.560 --> 37:17.120] at putting candidates through the ordeal of running. [37:17.120 --> 37:18.640] And I do think it's a legitimate way [37:18.640 --> 37:21.480] to screen out candidates and give a couple a chance [37:21.480 --> 37:22.240] to move on. [37:22.240 --> 37:23.560] You agree with that, don't you? [37:23.560 --> 37:24.880] I do, Jim. [37:24.880 --> 37:26.200] I mean, Iowa is unrepresentative. [37:26.200 --> 37:30.120] It has the fourth highest literacy rate of the 50 states. [37:30.120 --> 37:32.120] It has the third lowest divorce rate. [37:32.120 --> 37:34.880] It has the sixth highest high school graduation rate. [37:34.880 --> 37:38.600] Higher than the coastal smug states of Connecticut, New [37:38.600 --> 37:44.520] Jersey, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington. [37:44.520 --> 37:47.480] And the people take it quite seriously. [37:47.480 --> 37:49.840] And I always feel better after I've been in Iowa. [37:49.840 --> 37:52.400] And I will feel better after Tuesday night again. [37:52.400 --> 37:53.040] OK. [37:53.040 --> 37:54.800] Mark, David, thank you both very much. [38:03.320 --> 38:06.640] Now, two stories about the changing portrait of America. [38:06.640 --> 38:09.520] First, a different kind of life in the suburbs. [38:09.520 --> 38:12.760] Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people [38:12.760 --> 38:15.280] living below the poverty line in US suburbs [38:15.280 --> 38:18.880] increased by more than 50%, a trend that accelerated [38:18.880 --> 38:20.200] during the recession. [38:20.200 --> 38:23.520] It's happening in places that have long been middle class, [38:23.520 --> 38:25.640] as well as in richer neighborhoods. [38:25.640 --> 38:31.640] Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW Chicago has our story. [38:31.640 --> 38:34.920] DuPage County, Illinois is one of the wealthiest counties [38:34.920 --> 38:36.400] in the country. [38:36.400 --> 38:39.280] Comfortable homes sit on tree-lined streets [38:39.280 --> 38:43.240] in the suburb of Wheaton, eight miles west of Chicago. [38:43.240 --> 38:47.440] Upscale restaurants and shops line the historic downtown. [38:47.440 --> 38:50.600] But there is another side to DuPage County, [38:50.600 --> 38:54.720] one that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. [38:54.720 --> 38:58.240] It includes packed food pantries and crowds [38:58.240 --> 39:00.600] at the county welfare office. [39:00.600 --> 39:04.520] Candice King coordinates human services in DuPage County, [39:04.520 --> 39:08.040] and she has watched poverty grow. [39:08.040 --> 39:09.560] It's exploded. [39:09.560 --> 39:12.800] In the 16 years that I've been in my job, [39:12.800 --> 39:16.680] it has gone from something that was rarely encountered [39:16.680 --> 39:19.240] in this community, and certainly no one [39:19.240 --> 39:23.840] thought it was here to an issue that we encounter every day. [39:23.840 --> 39:26.960] Over the last 20 years, poverty in DuPage County [39:26.960 --> 39:30.720] has grown by 185%. [39:30.720 --> 39:34.000] Nearly 60,000 people here live in poverty, [39:34.000 --> 39:38.040] defined by the federal government as earning $22,350 [39:38.040 --> 39:41.120] a year for a family of four. [39:41.120 --> 39:44.360] And now a Brookings Institute analysis of census data [39:44.360 --> 39:47.440] finds that for the first time in the Chicago area, [39:47.440 --> 39:50.600] there are more people in poverty in the suburbs [39:50.600 --> 39:53.560] than in the city. [39:53.560 --> 39:57.080] In this Wheaton housing complex, 11 of the townhomes [39:57.080 --> 39:59.160] are in foreclosure. [39:59.160 --> 40:02.640] After almost two years of trying, 43-year-old Catherine [40:02.640 --> 40:06.840] Aravosis was finally able to renegotiate her mortgage [40:06.840 --> 40:08.600] and save her home. [40:08.600 --> 40:13.480] But she and her two children live far below the poverty line. [40:13.480 --> 40:16.080] Aravosis had a middle-class upbringing. [40:16.080 --> 40:18.200] Her father was a college professor, [40:18.200 --> 40:22.480] and in 2008, she got her second master's degree, [40:22.480 --> 40:25.320] this one in elementary education. [40:25.320 --> 40:28.520] But because of cuts in state education funding, [40:28.520 --> 40:32.600] she hasn't been able to find a full-time teaching job. [40:32.600 --> 40:37.280] Last year, she made $11,000 as a substitute teacher, [40:37.280 --> 40:41.160] far less than what she needs to support her two children. [40:41.160 --> 40:47.480] It has been hard for me because I want to provide for them [40:47.480 --> 40:50.280] in a way my parents provided for me. [40:50.280 --> 40:54.360] I never knew what my parents made. [40:54.360 --> 40:56.320] I never had to worry about a thing. [40:56.320 --> 41:05.440] We just lived a really stable, typical middle-class existence. [41:05.440 --> 41:10.240] And for my children, they don't have that sense of security [41:10.240 --> 41:11.240] that I had. [41:11.240 --> 41:14.240] They know when I'm stressed, and that hurts. [41:14.240 --> 41:17.000] You'll get one item out of the bucket behind him? [41:17.000 --> 41:20.000] Aravosis is part of the newly-poor demographic [41:20.000 --> 41:24.040] that accounts for much of the rise in poverty in the suburbs. [41:24.040 --> 41:28.160] Very good. 10 years ago, she and her husband, an architect, [41:28.160 --> 41:31.640] were earning a six-figure income and living in a five-bedroom [41:31.640 --> 41:33.560] home in Wheaton. [41:33.560 --> 41:36.080] They divorced in 2004. [41:36.080 --> 41:38.240] Her former husband's architectural commissions [41:38.240 --> 41:42.400] dried up in 2008, and he has had trouble making child support [41:42.400 --> 41:43.880] payments. [41:43.880 --> 41:46.960] Aravosis tried to get Medicaid for her children, [41:46.960 --> 41:49.360] but the state threatened to take her former husband's [41:49.360 --> 41:53.000] architect license because of lack of child support, [41:53.000 --> 41:55.040] and she backed off. [41:55.040 --> 41:57.080] It's those days when you get up and you really [41:57.080 --> 42:01.280] don't know what you're going to give your kids for dinner. [42:01.280 --> 42:05.520] And it can be a full-time job finding out, [42:05.520 --> 42:09.560] how am I going to get glasses for prescription as a year old? [42:09.560 --> 42:11.040] And where am I going to, you know, [42:11.040 --> 42:13.600] how do I go and get her the shot she needs? [42:13.600 --> 42:17.440] She's going to sixth grade, not having the health insurance, [42:17.440 --> 42:22.760] not having the basic things that people take for granted. [42:22.760 --> 42:26.960] Being able to get their kid to the doctor, you know, [42:26.960 --> 42:29.920] when they come home and say, we need $5 for school, [42:29.920 --> 42:31.240] there's always something. [42:31.240 --> 42:36.400] And sometimes you have to say, I don't have it. [42:36.400 --> 42:37.600] I just don't have it. [42:37.600 --> 42:39.120] I'm sorry. [42:39.120 --> 42:42.440] Today, dinner comes from the local food pantry. [42:42.440 --> 42:45.480] She cooks in her crock pot or microwave [42:45.480 --> 42:49.160] since she can't afford to repair her broken stove. [42:49.160 --> 42:52.080] Like many of the suburban poor, Aravosis [42:52.080 --> 42:55.680] never thought she would need help buying food. [42:55.680 --> 42:58.760] I didn't expect to be using the food pantry, [42:58.760 --> 43:00.720] especially not on a regular basis. [43:00.720 --> 43:06.800] But you know, I'm working and I'm not making enough money [43:06.800 --> 43:07.880] to make ends meet. [43:07.880 --> 43:11.520] So it's very humbling, but I swallowed my pride [43:11.520 --> 43:13.600] and I went to the People's Resource Center [43:13.600 --> 43:15.280] and I asked for help. [43:15.280 --> 43:17.760] OK, I have to have pumpkin, right? [43:17.760 --> 43:20.880] Aravosis can fill up a shopping cart once a week [43:20.880 --> 43:23.400] at the People's Resource Center. [43:23.400 --> 43:26.400] The number of people using this food pantry in Wheaton [43:26.400 --> 43:30.720] has gone up by 200% in the last five years. [43:30.720 --> 43:34.160] There was a 30% jump in 2008 alone. [43:34.160 --> 43:36.160] Make sure all the cart handles are clean. [43:36.160 --> 43:39.520] The Resource Center's program director, Melissa Travis, [43:39.520 --> 43:43.280] says many of their clients are new to poverty. [43:43.280 --> 43:45.000] Oftentimes the first time they come, [43:45.000 --> 43:47.240] they break into tears because they can't imagine [43:47.240 --> 43:49.760] that they would ever need help in a way like this. [43:49.760 --> 43:51.720] They've been people that have paid taxes. [43:51.720 --> 43:53.480] They're people that have volunteered and helped [43:53.480 --> 43:55.280] in places like this in the past. [43:55.280 --> 43:58.400] And now suddenly they have to go and seek out that assistance. [43:58.400 --> 44:01.320] So we give a lot of hugs. [44:01.320 --> 44:03.520] Mary Kay Hop could have used a hug the day [44:03.520 --> 44:05.600] she came to the food pantry. [44:05.600 --> 44:08.240] A registered nurse, Hop, has been out of work [44:08.240 --> 44:10.000] for several years. [44:10.000 --> 44:12.200] She grew up in Wheaton and enjoyed [44:12.200 --> 44:14.680] a far different lifestyle. [44:14.680 --> 44:16.280] My dad had a good job. [44:16.280 --> 44:19.720] We had the big house and the cars and all those other things. [44:19.720 --> 44:21.440] You know, new wardrobe for school. [44:21.440 --> 44:23.520] When that time of the year came around, [44:23.520 --> 44:26.520] I think that I'm one of the people who didn't [44:26.520 --> 44:28.400] have to go without much. [44:28.400 --> 44:33.640] And yeah, it's a whole flip side of that. [44:33.640 --> 44:37.080] Three months of unemployment brought Mariano Menendez [44:37.080 --> 44:40.720] and his family to the food pantry for the first time. [44:40.720 --> 44:43.600] Did you think you'd ever wind up coming to a food pantry for all? [44:43.600 --> 44:44.280] No, of course not. [44:44.280 --> 44:45.720] Never, never. [44:45.720 --> 44:46.720] I've had good jobs. [44:46.720 --> 44:50.800] I've made good income. [44:50.800 --> 44:52.720] I've never in my wildest dreams. [44:52.720 --> 44:56.120] So yeah, I'm definitely very grateful for this. [44:56.120 --> 45:00.440] It's an amazing, amazing service that they offer here. [45:00.440 --> 45:03.840] Their dramatic increase in poverty in suburban DuPage [45:03.840 --> 45:07.080] County mirrors the increase in poverty in suburban areas [45:07.080 --> 45:08.800] across the country. [45:08.800 --> 45:10.880] That leaves human service agencies [45:10.880 --> 45:14.320] struggling to meet the needs in their communities. [45:14.320 --> 45:17.000] Yet federal, state, and local funding [45:17.000 --> 45:21.040] still goes disproportionately to urban areas. [45:21.040 --> 45:23.080] That lack of federal and state resources [45:23.080 --> 45:26.680] to fight suburban poverty leaves existing agencies [45:26.680 --> 45:28.080] overwhelmed. [45:28.080 --> 45:31.840] All of the growth in poverty in the state of Illinois [45:31.840 --> 45:34.080] has been in the suburban area. [45:34.080 --> 45:39.000] My organization did an analysis of federal funding [45:39.000 --> 45:43.840] and some state funding and private philanthropic funding. [45:43.840 --> 45:46.360] And found that the city of Chicago [45:46.360 --> 45:51.160] is getting up to four and five times more per poor person [45:51.160 --> 45:52.760] than DuPage County is. [45:52.760 --> 45:55.240] That is not news to Melissa Travis [45:55.240 --> 45:56.960] at the People's Resource Center. [45:56.960 --> 45:59.160] We are stretched about six weeks ago. [45:59.160 --> 46:01.600] The food pantry was as empty as I've ever seen it [46:01.600 --> 46:03.320] in six and a half years. [46:03.320 --> 46:06.560] We were trying to get through to our next delivery [46:06.560 --> 46:09.160] and just hoping that we had enough food to give everybody [46:09.160 --> 46:10.400] what they needed. [46:10.400 --> 46:13.000] It's been a devastating year in that regard. [46:13.000 --> 46:15.120] Unlike many of the newly poor, who [46:15.120 --> 46:18.240] have a hard time finding the resources that are available, [46:18.240 --> 46:20.520] Catherine Aravosis has taken advantage [46:20.520 --> 46:23.720] of all the programs at the People's Resource Center. [46:23.720 --> 46:26.520] She has gotten clothes for herself and her kids [46:26.520 --> 46:28.320] and used the job counselors in her effort [46:28.320 --> 46:30.920] to find a full-time teaching job. [46:30.920 --> 46:34.080] But having to accept help has changed the way [46:34.080 --> 46:35.760] she thinks of herself. [46:35.760 --> 46:37.480] I always thought of myself as middle class. [46:37.480 --> 46:39.520] I had a middle class upbringing. [46:39.520 --> 46:44.200] I had middle class expectations, but the reality [46:44.200 --> 46:49.640] is that I'm not living a middle class lifestyle anymore. [46:49.640 --> 46:51.440] So no, I don't think so. [46:51.440 --> 46:55.760] I think I've fallen out of the middle class. [46:55.760 --> 46:58.560] Like many in her situation, she doesn't see much hope [46:58.560 --> 47:00.520] of things improving. [47:00.520 --> 47:03.120] And while she wants to stay in Wheaton, [47:03.120 --> 47:07.240] life in suburbia is far different than she ever imagined [47:07.240 --> 47:10.000] it would be. [47:10.000 --> 47:19.200] And finally tonight, our second story [47:19.200 --> 47:22.000] on the shifting trends in American life. [47:22.000 --> 47:25.720] This one's about the changing demographics of marriage. [47:25.720 --> 47:28.680] Ray Suarez has our conversation. [47:28.680 --> 47:31.960] For decades, the fact that a sizable majority of Americans [47:31.960 --> 47:35.360] were married shaped our politics, where we lived, [47:35.360 --> 47:38.160] where we worked, and what we thought when we heard the word [47:38.160 --> 47:39.240] family. [47:39.240 --> 47:40.880] Recently, the Pew Research Center [47:40.880 --> 47:45.080] took a look at all of us over 18 and found just 51% [47:45.080 --> 47:49.320] are married, down from more than 70% in 1960. [47:49.320 --> 47:51.560] Stephanie Coons has been chronicling the changes [47:51.560 --> 47:53.560] in American marriage for a long time. [47:53.560 --> 47:55.480] She teaches history and family studies [47:55.480 --> 47:57.800] at Evergreen State College in Washington [47:57.800 --> 47:59.800] and is director of research at the Council [47:59.800 --> 48:01.680] on Contemporary Families. [48:01.680 --> 48:02.920] Professor Coons, welcome. [48:02.920 --> 48:05.960] We moved in 50 years from almost three quarters [48:05.960 --> 48:09.440] of married adults to barely half. [48:09.440 --> 48:09.960] What happened? [48:09.960 --> 48:12.360] What's pushing those numbers? [48:12.360 --> 48:14.760] Well, one of the things that you have to bear in mind [48:14.760 --> 48:20.120] is that 1960 was probably the most atypical year in 150 years. [48:20.120 --> 48:22.520] The age of marriage was at an all-time low. [48:22.520 --> 48:24.600] Half of all women were married before they [48:24.600 --> 48:26.120] got out of their teens. [48:26.120 --> 48:28.840] And the rate of marriage was at an all-time high. [48:28.840 --> 48:31.760] So what's happened since then, primarily what's driving this, [48:31.760 --> 48:33.680] is the rise in the age of marriage. [48:33.680 --> 48:38.720] It's now up to 26 for women and 28 for men. [48:38.720 --> 48:40.000] And that's actually a good thing, [48:40.000 --> 48:42.880] because the longer a woman delays marriage, [48:42.880 --> 48:46.600] right up until her early 30s, the lower her chances of divorce. [48:46.600 --> 48:49.520] But it does totally change the social weight [48:49.520 --> 48:52.200] of married households in our economy, our society, [48:52.200 --> 48:53.480] our politics. [48:53.480 --> 48:57.360] But not only has the age at first marriage risen, which, [48:57.360 --> 48:58.600] of course, that's just math. [48:58.600 --> 49:01.440] It makes a smaller number of adults married. [49:01.440 --> 49:04.000] But the number of people who have ever been married [49:04.000 --> 49:05.400] has also declined. [49:05.400 --> 49:08.920] Has marriage moved from being sort of culturally mandatory [49:08.920 --> 49:11.360] to more optional? [49:11.360 --> 49:14.160] Well, it's definitely moved to being more optional. [49:14.160 --> 49:17.200] That does not mean, though, that it's not just as valued, [49:17.200 --> 49:19.760] in fact, even more valued than it used to be. [49:19.760 --> 49:21.880] And it doesn't mean that the majority of Americans [49:21.880 --> 49:23.520] will not marry. [49:23.520 --> 49:26.280] I think that probably we're going into a situation [49:26.280 --> 49:30.120] where a slightly larger number of people will never marry [49:30.120 --> 49:35.000] than in the past, maybe 15%, as opposed to 10% norm [49:35.000 --> 49:37.960] and 5% in the atypical 1950s. [49:37.960 --> 49:39.720] And of course, we also have some people [49:39.720 --> 49:42.760] who will live alone after divorcing. [49:42.760 --> 49:45.640] But on the other hand, people are marrying for the first time [49:45.640 --> 49:48.840] in their 40s, 50s, and 60s at younger and older [49:48.840 --> 49:50.600] ages than ever before. [49:50.600 --> 49:53.440] So for me, the main thing that I think we're facing here [49:53.440 --> 49:56.880] is that you can no longer assume that married couple [49:56.880 --> 49:59.680] households are going to be the main places where [49:59.680 --> 50:03.360] people make the major life decisions, whether that's [50:03.360 --> 50:07.960] entering into becoming sexually active, buying a house, [50:07.960 --> 50:10.640] entering long-term obligations, living with somebody [50:10.640 --> 50:13.720] that is a romantic partner, even having a child out of marriage. [50:13.720 --> 50:16.720] So we can no longer assume that married couple households [50:16.720 --> 50:19.640] are the only place where people incur obligations, [50:19.640 --> 50:23.040] make commitments, and need help in meeting their obligations. [50:23.040 --> 50:25.880] Well, you've talked about these big life moments. [50:25.880 --> 50:28.240] But have they responded to the fact [50:28.240 --> 50:29.920] that marriage has changed in this way [50:29.920 --> 50:31.400] over the last 50 years? [50:31.400 --> 50:33.800] Our tax laws, the way we build houses, [50:33.800 --> 50:36.600] the way we award property and courts, [50:36.600 --> 50:40.360] all kinds of things are still built around marriage. [50:40.360 --> 50:41.880] Absolutely, absolutely. [50:41.880 --> 50:44.560] Just look at work-family policies that just assume [50:44.560 --> 50:45.960] that it's only married couples who [50:45.960 --> 50:50.040] are going to have children, or just ignore the fact [50:50.040 --> 50:53.880] that singles also have responsibility for aging parents. [50:53.880 --> 50:56.760] There are so many ways in which we are still [50:56.760 --> 51:01.480] acting as though American families were like 1950s sitcoms [51:01.480 --> 51:03.720] instead of the tremendous diversity. [51:03.720 --> 51:05.840] Most people will marry in America, [51:05.840 --> 51:08.840] but most people will spend substantial portions [51:08.840 --> 51:10.800] of their adult life outside marriage. [51:10.800 --> 51:13.040] It's a more fluid situation than it used to be. [51:13.040 --> 51:13.840] They'll move through. [51:13.840 --> 51:15.600] They may cohabit for a while. [51:15.600 --> 51:16.840] They may get married. [51:16.840 --> 51:18.640] They may get divorced. [51:18.640 --> 51:21.160] So these are the sorts of things that our social policy [51:21.160 --> 51:24.560] and even our emotional expectations of family life [51:24.560 --> 51:26.960] have to catch up with these changing realities. [51:26.960 --> 51:28.680] Along with the long-term trends, [51:28.680 --> 51:30.480] there are some short-term ones too. [51:30.480 --> 51:33.360] The number of newlyweds is way down. [51:33.360 --> 51:37.360] Is that going to push that 50% threshold down [51:37.360 --> 51:42.120] so that married people are a minority of American adults? [51:42.120 --> 51:42.680] It may. [51:42.680 --> 51:43.080] It may. [51:43.080 --> 51:45.720] It depends how long this recession and the aftermath [51:45.720 --> 51:47.120] of the recession lasts. [51:47.120 --> 51:49.720] This is a long-term trend that decline [51:49.720 --> 51:52.840] in the proportion of married couples in the population. [51:52.840 --> 51:55.160] But it's been definitely, I think, exacerbated [51:55.160 --> 51:56.280] by the recession. [51:56.280 --> 51:59.200] But on the other hand, we may see some bounce back after that [51:59.200 --> 52:01.640] as we have in previous recessions and depressions [52:01.640 --> 52:03.080] when the marriage rate fell. [52:03.080 --> 52:09.400] How is who gets married shaped by income, education, [52:09.400 --> 52:11.800] factors like that? [52:11.800 --> 52:13.480] Well, one of the things we're seeing [52:13.480 --> 52:17.480] is a tremendous class divide in the access [52:17.480 --> 52:20.600] to stable, satisfying relationships, [52:20.600 --> 52:22.640] whether married or cohabiting. [52:22.640 --> 52:25.640] And the marriages of college-educated couples [52:25.640 --> 52:27.480] have been getting more and more stable. [52:27.480 --> 52:29.440] The divorce rates have been falling. [52:29.440 --> 52:32.520] But that's not so for high school dropouts [52:32.520 --> 52:36.360] and even, increasingly, for high school-educated couples. [52:36.360 --> 52:39.160] It seems that one of the issues going on here [52:39.160 --> 52:42.320] is that we expect more of marriage than ever before, [52:42.320 --> 52:46.400] both as an economic partnership and as an emotional partnership. [52:46.400 --> 52:53.320] And as it becomes possible, or less possible, to count on a man [52:53.320 --> 52:57.040] having a steady job, the real wages of high school graduates [52:57.040 --> 53:00.840] today are $4 an hour lower in constant dollars [53:00.840 --> 53:02.560] than they were back in 1970. [53:02.560 --> 53:05.320] They're much more likely to experience job insecurity, [53:05.320 --> 53:07.280] much less likely to have pensions. [53:07.280 --> 53:10.960] So a low-income woman making a decision about marrying [53:10.960 --> 53:14.320] such a man has to figure out, well, what are the benefits [53:14.320 --> 53:16.400] of this as compared to the possibility [53:16.400 --> 53:18.240] that we might divorce in the future [53:18.240 --> 53:20.160] or as compared to what would happen [53:20.160 --> 53:23.520] if I invested in my own education and earnings power? [53:23.520 --> 53:25.800] And so I do think we're seeing a class divide that's [53:25.800 --> 53:27.080] quite troublesome. [53:27.080 --> 53:30.480] I think that it partly reflects growing economic inequality [53:30.480 --> 53:33.880] in our society, but, of course, it exacerbates it as well. [53:33.880 --> 53:37.120] Stephanie Coons, thanks for joining us. [53:37.120 --> 53:37.840] My pleasure, Ray. [53:37.840 --> 53:39.680] Thank you. [53:39.680 --> 53:48.040] And again, the major developments of the day. [53:48.040 --> 53:49.560] Republican presidential candidate [53:49.560 --> 53:51.960] spent another long day hunting for votes going [53:51.960 --> 53:54.840] into the final weekend before the Iowa caucuses. [53:54.840 --> 53:58.720] Another poll showed Mitt Romney and Ron Paul atop the field. [53:58.720 --> 54:02.360] And an outpouring of protesters filled cities across Syria [54:02.360 --> 54:04.720] and government troops opened fire again. [54:04.720 --> 54:08.240] The opposition said at least 22 people were killed. [54:08.240 --> 54:11.200] And to Hari Srinivasan for what's on the news hour online. [54:11.200 --> 54:12.160] Hari? [54:12.160 --> 54:14.120] There's much more on the coming Iowa caucuses, [54:14.120 --> 54:17.120] including Gwen Eiffel's take on why the early contest matter [54:17.120 --> 54:19.840] and what some Republican voters want from the candidates. [54:19.840 --> 54:22.920] And Patchwork Nation's look at some GOP hopefuls betting [54:22.920 --> 54:25.960] big on sparsely populated counties in Iowa, [54:25.960 --> 54:28.400] plus on the rundown view a slideshow of some of the biggest [54:28.400 --> 54:31.560] news stories of 2011 in the US and around the world. [54:31.560 --> 54:34.360] All that and more is on our website, newshour.pbs.org. [54:34.360 --> 54:35.280] Jeff? [54:35.280 --> 54:36.920] And that's the news hour for tonight. [54:36.920 --> 54:39.360] On Monday, we'll look at the fallout in Egypt [54:39.360 --> 54:42.680] after the military-rated U.S.-backed organizations. [54:42.680 --> 54:44.120] I'm Jeffrey Brown. [54:44.120 --> 54:46.200] And I'm Jim Lara, Washington Week, [54:46.200 --> 54:49.800] and be seen later this evening on most PBS stations. [54:49.800 --> 54:52.760] We'll see you online and again here Monday evening. [54:52.760 --> 54:55.280] Have a nice New Year's holiday weekend. 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