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[00:00.000 --> 00:17.080]  This Sunday live from Des Moines on this New Year's Day, just 40 hours before the Iowa
[00:17.080 --> 00:18.080]  caucuses.
[00:18.080 --> 00:22.080]  The official start of this presidential election year.
[00:22.080 --> 00:27.080]  Senator Rick Santorum surges in the closing days, but will it be enough to buy him
[00:27.080 --> 00:28.920]  a ticket out of the Hawkeye State?
[00:28.920 --> 00:33.520]  Iowa provides the spark, this plenty of tinder on the ground that will start burning
[00:33.520 --> 00:35.320]  in these other states.
[00:35.320 --> 00:39.240]  Senator Santorum here with us for an exclusive interview this morning.
[00:39.240 --> 00:44.280]  Meanwhile, Mitt Ronny is trying to keep his spot atop the polls as he makes his final
[00:44.280 --> 00:45.600]  push.
[00:45.600 --> 00:50.840]  This is an election not only to replace a president, it's an election to save the soul of
[00:50.840 --> 00:51.840]  America.
[00:51.840 --> 00:57.600]  And New King Rich still losing some support, but will his emotional moment in Iowa humanize
[00:57.600 --> 01:07.160]  him to voters, but fulfilling with the real problems of real people in my family.
[01:07.160 --> 01:12.360]  And so it's not a theory, it's in fact, you know, my mother will break down the state
[01:12.360 --> 01:17.000]  of the race and the impact of the caucuses with the chairman of Iowa's Republican Party
[01:17.000 --> 01:23.160]  Matt Strong and NBC News political director, Chuck Taw, plus full analysis from our political
[01:23.160 --> 01:28.280]  roundtable, columnist for the Des Moines Register, Kathy O'Broddvich, Republican strategist
[01:28.280 --> 01:34.160]  Mike Murphy, New York Times, columnist David Brooks, time magazine, senior political analyst
[01:34.160 --> 01:47.280]  Mark Halpring and host of Andrea Mitchell reports, NBC's Andrea Mitchell.
[01:47.280 --> 01:58.960]  From the Moine Iowa, this is a special edition of Beat the Press with David Gregory.
[01:58.960 --> 01:59.960]  Good morning.
[01:59.960 --> 02:00.960]  Here we go.
[02:00.960 --> 02:05.760]  The presidential race of 2012 is about to officially begin as the voting starts here in Iowa
[02:05.760 --> 02:06.760]  on Tuesday.
[02:06.760 --> 02:11.280]  And here's how the race looks this morning with the Des Moines Register poll showing a
[02:11.280 --> 02:16.880]  three-way race now with Ronny leading Ron Paul by two points and Rick Santorum with
[02:16.880 --> 02:17.880]  the late surge.
[02:17.880 --> 02:23.200]  We will talk to Santorum about his surprise momentum in the race in just a couple of moments,
[02:23.200 --> 02:27.640]  but first we have with us NBC's political director, Chuck Taw, and the chairman of Iowa's
[02:27.640 --> 02:30.440]  Republican Party Matt Strong, welcome to both of you.
[02:30.440 --> 02:31.440]  Good morning.
[02:31.440 --> 02:32.440]  Happy New Year.
[02:32.440 --> 02:33.440]  Good morning.
[02:33.440 --> 02:34.440]  Welcome back.
[02:34.440 --> 02:35.440]  Thank you.
[02:35.440 --> 02:36.920]  So, Chuck Taw, partner, where are we this morning?
[02:36.920 --> 02:40.680]  Well, I think we're trying to figure out this is what are Iowa caucuses going to do?
[02:40.680 --> 02:41.680]  What are these Republicans?
[02:41.680 --> 02:44.200]  Are they going to come into these caucuses Tuesday night and pick a president?
[02:44.200 --> 02:47.920]  Or are they going to do what they've done in the past, which is send a message and win
[02:47.920 --> 02:48.920]  of the field.
[02:48.920 --> 02:53.560]  If they come in, and a lot of them want to pick a president, Matt Romney is going to win.
[02:53.560 --> 02:54.880]  Turn out's going to go up.
[02:54.880 --> 02:58.520]  You're going to see the casual voters show up, and that's good for Romney.
[02:58.520 --> 03:05.760]  If it's the old style sort of the activists that show up, I think Santorum has enough momentum,
[03:05.760 --> 03:10.440]  it was a little bit of a wildcard here in Rick Perry, but then Santorum does get out of here
[03:10.440 --> 03:11.440]  with some momentum.
[03:11.440 --> 03:13.560]  And I think that that's what we don't know.
[03:13.560 --> 03:15.440]  But let me stick with Santorum with you, Chuck.
[03:15.440 --> 03:20.080]  If you look inside the numbers of the poll, the last couple of days when they were in the
[03:20.080 --> 03:25.600]  field talking to folks, this is what you see that Santorum is actually in 21 percent because
[03:25.600 --> 03:29.960]  in those last two days, his numbers actually shoot up 6 percent.
[03:29.960 --> 03:34.800]  So if you're measuring intensity and not looking at the full range of the poll, but just
[03:34.800 --> 03:38.240]  the last couple of days, you see, Santorum has really got that buzz.
[03:38.240 --> 03:40.240]  And that was the big thing out of the NBC marriage poll.
[03:40.240 --> 03:43.200]  And if you look at both polls together, you can almost see they sort of fit together
[03:43.200 --> 03:47.600]  and you see this and it was Santorum and Ron Paul, for instance, had much more intensity
[03:47.600 --> 03:48.600]  than Romney.
[03:48.600 --> 03:52.920]  In fact, Rick Perry had more intense support in our poll than Mitt Romney did.
[03:52.920 --> 03:54.240]  And that's the Romney problem.
[03:54.240 --> 03:59.720]  He's got the, well, I guess I'm going to be for Romney voter, but does that person show
[03:59.720 --> 04:00.720]  up?
[04:00.720 --> 04:01.720]  And that's what we don't know.
[04:01.720 --> 04:05.120]  So Matt Strong, you're the chairman of the party here in the state.
[04:05.120 --> 04:06.120]  And this is important.
[04:06.120 --> 04:09.560]  I mean, this is the first voting in the presidential campaign.
[04:09.560 --> 04:12.880]  What's the mindset of an Iowa Republican going into this caucus?
[04:12.880 --> 04:15.960]  Well, I think the other key takeaway, not just in the NBC marriage poll, but in the
[04:15.960 --> 04:19.960]  Duane Register poll this morning, is the fact that two out of every five caucus floors
[04:19.960 --> 04:22.320]  could still change their mind between now and caucus day.
[04:22.320 --> 04:24.120]  And I think it gets a lot of volatility.
[04:24.120 --> 04:25.120]  It is.
[04:25.120 --> 04:27.200]  And it's moved from three out of five, which it was just a couple weeks ago.
[04:27.200 --> 04:31.960]  And I think that's the juxtaposition between the desire to beat Barack Obama, but also making
[04:31.960 --> 04:35.920]  sure that we have an nominee that can aggressively articulate the Republican principle
[04:35.920 --> 04:37.920]  at conservative message going into a general election.
[04:37.920 --> 04:42.560]  Well, so what's more important, because we've seen Santorum's latest ad is really about
[04:42.560 --> 04:43.560]  electability.
[04:43.560 --> 04:48.080]  I can beat Barack Obama, but for the breadth of the campaigning in Iowa, it's been, who's
[04:48.080 --> 04:49.080]  the true conservative?
[04:49.080 --> 04:53.600]  Has there been a change because there hasn't been a love affair among voters with
[04:53.600 --> 04:56.640]  Mitt Romney who's been the front runner throughout most of this contest?
[04:56.640 --> 04:59.920]  But I think the first thing you see when you talk to any Iowa Republican is that desire to
[04:59.920 --> 05:04.160]  beat Barack Obama, because we understand that we can afford former years in Obama administration
[05:04.160 --> 05:07.560]  that is hostile to our party's values and our principles.
[05:07.560 --> 05:11.000]  And that's the tension while you still have two out of every five Iowa caucus courts
[05:11.000 --> 05:12.880]  have not yet made a decision.
[05:12.880 --> 05:15.320]  And that's really going to get down to on Tuesday night.
[05:15.320 --> 05:18.760]  You always hear the mantra, organization, organization, organization.
[05:18.760 --> 05:23.360]  The organized campaign is going to have someone in each of those 1774 precincts to make
[05:23.360 --> 05:27.520]  the case, not only why a candidate can be Barack Obama, but why they have the principles
[05:27.520 --> 05:29.640]  of our party to carry the banner going into the general.
[05:29.640 --> 05:31.520]  You know, remember what happens on Tuesday night.
[05:31.520 --> 05:34.320]  There's a set of speeches that happened before the actual vote.
[05:34.320 --> 05:38.160]  And I think that that is why, for instance, Rick Santorum is making an electability argument,
[05:38.160 --> 05:41.440]  because that's the problem, he himself said he was running into.
[05:41.440 --> 05:42.440]  We agree with you.
[05:42.440 --> 05:47.280]  He fits the Iowa Republican caucus electorate better, frankly, than any of these candidates.
[05:47.280 --> 05:51.840]  Better than Rick Perry without all of the baggage that he accumulated himself, better
[05:51.840 --> 05:52.960]  than a new kingric.
[05:52.960 --> 05:57.120]  He fits it, the social conservative values that have very strong inside the Iowa Republican
[05:57.120 --> 05:58.120]  party.
[05:58.120 --> 06:00.720]  But he said himself, people would come up to him, but I don't think you can win.
[06:00.720 --> 06:04.520]  Not only, I don't even think you can go on to other states, well, he's got to make
[06:04.520 --> 06:06.200]  that case at the end.
[06:06.200 --> 06:09.880]  If he does, he's got the biggest, he's got the most room to grow here.
[06:09.880 --> 06:14.960]  And that's why he, on paper, yes, Romney's ahead, I think it wouldn't surprise anybody
[06:14.960 --> 06:17.440]  if Santorum was the one that comes out of here with the actual victory.
[06:17.440 --> 06:19.240]  Chuck, talk about the volatility a little bit.
[06:19.240 --> 06:20.560]  Has we been covering this?
[06:20.560 --> 06:24.080]  Anybody you talked to about the race is still shaking their head about, wait a minute,
[06:24.080 --> 06:25.080]  I thought there was Bachman.
[06:25.080 --> 06:28.560]  And then there was Perry, and then there was Herman Kane, and then there was Kingrich.
[06:28.560 --> 06:29.560]  And now he's falling back.
[06:29.560 --> 06:30.560]  What's going on?
[06:30.560 --> 06:31.560]  It's about Mitt Romney.
[06:31.560 --> 06:36.120]  Mitt Romney is not viewed as conservative enough for where this Republican party is today.
[06:36.120 --> 06:37.680]  He's been trying to do this.
[06:37.680 --> 06:41.600]  We did a little word search on the word conservative with Mitt Romney, and in the first half
[06:41.600 --> 06:44.640]  of his campaign, he didn't even use the word very often.
[06:44.640 --> 06:48.480]  In the last six weeks, he talks about it all the time, tries to say, I am a conservative.
[06:48.480 --> 06:52.680]  I'm, you know, and he talks about the electability, but that has been, that has ultimately
[06:52.680 --> 06:53.680]  the issue.
[06:53.680 --> 06:57.880]  We still have 75% of it, likely, of the Iowa Republican caucus electorate.
[06:57.880 --> 07:00.120]  That's going to vote for somebody else.
[07:00.120 --> 07:02.320]  That's still a challenge from Romney.
[07:02.320 --> 07:06.720]  And I think that it may be what some activists here in Iowa decide to do is, hey, we're
[07:06.720 --> 07:10.600]  going to, we got a force Mitt Romney to keep proving as conservative credentials.
[07:10.600 --> 07:13.920]  To say, you got to, you're not going to end this early.
[07:13.920 --> 07:16.040]  You got to go out there and earn the conservative vote.
[07:16.040 --> 07:17.040]  Now, what about turnout?
[07:17.040 --> 07:21.320]  Because this is a big key bigger turnout, presumably better for Romney, because a lot of
[07:21.320 --> 07:25.840]  strategists, I've talked to you, say, those could be moderates, those could be independence,
[07:25.840 --> 07:31.200]  even Democrats who come out and say, no, we don't want a Santorum of Bachman or Paul
[07:31.200 --> 07:32.200]  doing that well.
[07:32.200 --> 07:34.800]  We don't want to represent Iowa that way we want to go with Romney.
[07:34.800 --> 07:39.040]  Well, I think one thing you see in 2008, we had a record turnout with just under 120,000
[07:39.040 --> 07:40.280]  Iowa Republicans.
[07:40.280 --> 07:44.440]  And in that four-year span since then, we've had 33 straight months of Republican registration
[07:44.440 --> 07:45.440]  gains here in Iowa.
[07:45.440 --> 07:48.640]  So, we've got about 30,000 more Iowa Republicans.
[07:48.640 --> 07:52.720]  We had the second largest attendance we saw ever at the Australian government August, and
[07:52.720 --> 07:56.560]  it's the first chance anybody in the country gets to vote to start the process to replace
[07:56.560 --> 07:57.560]  Barack Obama.
[07:57.560 --> 08:01.960]  I would be surprised if we didn't have a strong turnout Tuesday night and with good weather
[08:01.960 --> 08:06.080]  for those senior citizens, when you look at the poll results, Mitt Romney does the best
[08:06.080 --> 08:10.200]  with 60 and older voters, so I think we are set up to have a strong turnout, and people
[08:10.200 --> 08:13.440]  do need to remember in the Iowa caucuses as an independent or Democrat.
[08:13.440 --> 08:15.640]  You can register as a Republican that night and participate.
[08:15.640 --> 08:17.640]  He's making a pitch there, you see.
[08:17.640 --> 08:20.720]  But higher to the more this is a primary, the better this is.
[08:20.720 --> 08:25.600]  If this were a primary, and there were no speeches that night before you voted, Mitt Romney
[08:25.600 --> 08:26.760]  would win by 10 points.
[08:26.760 --> 08:31.400]  So we always have this debate about Iowa, but it's more intense now, you know, the history
[08:31.400 --> 08:37.360]  of the Iowa caucuses, retail campaigning, a real chance to interact with voters one
[08:37.360 --> 08:38.360]  on one.
[08:38.360 --> 08:41.920]  The truth of the matter is that it's a lot like big-time politics everywhere else now,
[08:41.920 --> 08:48.800]  more than $16 million of TV advertising, blanketing the airways so much of it negative.
[08:48.800 --> 08:52.440]  And here was the headline of the Wall Street Journal editorial on Tuesday.
[08:52.440 --> 08:56.200]  It was as Iowa goes, so goes Iowa.
[08:56.200 --> 09:00.760]  Neil Collins, piling on on the New York Times on Thursday, writing, feel free to ignore
[09:00.760 --> 09:01.760]  Iowa.
[09:01.760 --> 09:04.680]  The Republicans hope to get more than 100,000 participants.
[09:04.680 --> 09:07.640]  That's about the same number of people in Pomona, California.
[09:07.640 --> 09:11.160]  Imagine your reaction to seeing a story saying that a plurality of people in Pomona thought
[09:11.160 --> 09:15.400]  New King would be the best U.P. presidential candidate, would you say, wow, I guess new
[09:15.400 --> 09:19.320]  is now the front runner, possibly not, not from a Los Angeles area.
[09:19.320 --> 09:23.760]  So I don't like anybody picking on Pomona.
[09:23.760 --> 09:26.360]  What is Iowa going to pick the president?
[09:26.360 --> 09:30.720]  Well, listen, this is the quad-ready attack on the Hawkeye State, and I think I was representative
[09:30.720 --> 09:33.560]  if you look at the last four national presidential elections.
[09:33.560 --> 09:37.160]  I was popular vote, he's mirrored, what has happened nationally, and he also have to think
[09:37.160 --> 09:38.880]  what our role in the process is.
[09:38.880 --> 09:39.880]  We're first.
[09:39.880 --> 09:40.880]  We're not last.
[09:40.880 --> 09:41.880]  We're not the Decider.
[09:41.880 --> 09:45.200]  We start winnowing the field, but the one thing you can't discount, though, is there
[09:45.200 --> 09:49.000]  very few things the last two presidents of the United States have in common, but their path
[09:49.000 --> 09:51.520]  the White House did start by winning the Iowa caucuses.
[09:51.520 --> 09:55.240]  Final point here, Chuck, he's to Tuesday, what are you looking for in the next couple
[09:55.240 --> 09:56.240]  of days?
[09:56.240 --> 09:57.880]  To me, it's the Rick Perry number.
[09:57.880 --> 09:59.360]  He is the wild card here.
[09:59.360 --> 10:03.040]  Newt, I think we clearly know Gingrich is on his way down, and he may not, frankly, may
[10:03.040 --> 10:05.320]  end up in single digits before, so all said and done.
[10:05.320 --> 10:08.520]  So this little boom lead of his, an amazing rise and fall.
[10:08.520 --> 10:09.960]  But what happens to the Perry supported?
[10:09.960 --> 10:13.960]  Does the Perry supporter that walks in on caucus tonight, who is also a social conservative?
[10:13.960 --> 10:15.240]  Do they stick with him?
[10:15.240 --> 10:16.840]  How committed to him are they?
[10:16.840 --> 10:20.880]  Or do they end up buying the San Torne Marginal that says, you know what?
[10:20.880 --> 10:25.240]  I'm the conservative that can come out of here, that can win, that can keep going on,
[10:25.240 --> 10:27.440]  and where that happens to that.
[10:27.440 --> 10:30.120]  And by the way, Mitt Romney, he needs a strong work, Perry.
[10:30.120 --> 10:33.840]  He needs work, Perry, just strong enough so that Perry will go to South Carolina and won't
[10:33.840 --> 10:34.840]  get out of there.
[10:34.840 --> 10:37.760]  Does the field narrow after the results here?
[10:37.760 --> 10:42.360]  Well, I think it will narrow in the actual, does the actual playing field narrow?
[10:42.360 --> 10:44.640]  Maybe by one candidate, maybe a Bachman ends up getting out.
[10:44.640 --> 10:46.640]  Newt has no incentive to get out.
[10:46.640 --> 10:48.240]  Perry, let's see what he does.
[10:48.240 --> 10:51.960]  If Perry is at 15, he stays in, he goes on to South Carolina.
[10:51.960 --> 10:57.800]  If he's closer to 10, I think then, he may pack in and that's not good for Mitt Romney.
[10:57.800 --> 11:01.640]  By the way, he needs a few more conservatives to hang around so he can steal South Carolina.
[11:01.640 --> 11:04.960]  I would be with there, Chuck Todd, Matt Strong, thank you both very much.
[11:04.960 --> 11:09.200]  We're going to turn now to a man who has been making a late surge here in Iowa, former
[11:09.200 --> 11:12.560]  two-term senator from Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum.
[11:12.560 --> 11:17.840]  Santorum is spent more time in Iowa than any other candidate, and was the first to visit
[11:17.840 --> 11:23.200]  all 99 counties in the state with limited resources and money and staff, he's been traveling
[11:23.200 --> 11:26.160]  from event to event in a pickup truck.
[11:26.160 --> 11:30.880]  Earlier this week, a CNN time poll showed him for the first time in the top three, and now
[11:30.880 --> 11:34.480]  he's suddenly turning out larger crowds and drawing more media attention.
[11:34.480 --> 11:38.600]  He's hoping to make a strong showing in Iowa by courting conservative voters just as
[11:38.600 --> 11:46.320]  previous caucus winner, Mike Huckabey did four years ago.
[11:46.320 --> 11:48.160]  Senator Santorum, welcome back to meet the press.
[11:48.160 --> 11:49.160]  Thank you, David.
[11:49.160 --> 11:50.160]  Good to be with you.
[11:50.160 --> 11:53.360]  So this is the candidate that I'm sitting with who's got the hot hand in Iowa.
[11:53.360 --> 11:59.200]  Here's the Des Moines Sunday Register here, Romney Paul Leade, Santorum closes in.
[11:59.200 --> 12:03.280]  We just talked about in that last segment how you have had this surge, particularly in
[12:03.280 --> 12:05.920]  the last couple of days.
[12:05.920 --> 12:06.920]  What does it mean?
[12:06.920 --> 12:08.800]  What's going on here in the state?
[12:08.800 --> 12:12.240]  Well, the people of Iowa, I've been saying this from the very beginning, you know, people
[12:12.240 --> 12:13.840]  of asking me, and when are you going to get your surge?
[12:13.840 --> 12:14.840]  You're not going anywhere.
[12:14.840 --> 12:16.320]  Your message must not be resonating.
[12:16.320 --> 12:19.400]  I said, you know, my surge is going to come on January 3rd.
[12:19.400 --> 12:23.680]  After the people of Iowa do what they do, which is actually analyze the candidates, figure
[12:23.680 --> 12:28.440]  out where their positions are, find out who's the right leader, who's got what it takes
[12:28.440 --> 12:33.360]  to defeat Barack Obama, and to lead this country, and I've always relied that when that crunch
[12:33.360 --> 12:36.800]  time comes in these last two weeks, that's when we're going to start to pick up.
[12:36.800 --> 12:37.800]  And that's exactly what's happened.
[12:37.800 --> 12:43.280]  You've talked about needing a miracle here in Iowa, but expectations have changed now.
[12:43.280 --> 12:46.480]  Is anything less than a win here?
[12:46.480 --> 12:47.480]  Not measuring up to expectations?
[12:47.480 --> 12:52.160]  That's really pretty funny, actually, because 10 days ago I was at 5% and every question
[12:52.160 --> 12:56.760]  I got was, you know, why don't you pack it up, why don't you endorse another candidate?
[12:56.760 --> 13:01.120]  And now, 10 days later, you're saying, oh, you got to win another lead, exceed expectations.
[13:01.120 --> 13:05.440]  Look, we feel very good about the way things are going on the ground, we've got a great
[13:05.440 --> 13:09.240]  grassroots organization, we've got a great team of people who are out helping us and they're
[13:09.240 --> 13:14.040]  committed to making sure that this isn't a pure victory in November, that we actually
[13:14.040 --> 13:18.320]  elect someone who's exactly what American needs to turn this country around, not someone
[13:18.320 --> 13:22.840]  who, well, just might be able to win, and then not really do the change that's necessary
[13:22.840 --> 13:23.840]  in Washington.
[13:23.840 --> 13:27.680]  But one more on just flat expectations, you feel, at this point, particularly, you've
[13:27.680 --> 13:31.360]  got to do better than a Michelle Bachman or Rick Perry in order to continue in this race.
[13:31.360 --> 13:33.200]  Yeah, I've always said there's really three primaries.
[13:33.200 --> 13:37.000]  I mean, you have the conservative primary, and you mentioned the other two people who I think
[13:37.000 --> 13:41.480]  are in the conservative primary, you have the libertarian primary, and then you have
[13:41.480 --> 13:45.080]  Gingrich and Romney sort of fighting for the establishment vote.
[13:45.080 --> 13:51.440]  And our feeling was from the very beginning, if we can pace ahead of Perry and or Bachman,
[13:51.440 --> 13:54.920]  that we'd be in good shape, and we're moving in that direction, certainly right now.
[13:54.920 --> 13:58.920]  You talk about electability, you talk about conservative credentials, but we've been checking
[13:58.920 --> 14:04.440]  on this, you know, it'd be 20 years ago this week, actually, that you would begin your
[14:04.440 --> 14:09.120]  service in Washington, and had you not lost for reelection, you'd still be in Washington
[14:09.120 --> 14:11.120]  as a senator.
[14:11.120 --> 14:15.320]  But you spent 16 years as a member of Congress for in the House 12 in the Senate,
[14:15.320 --> 14:19.160]  and yet there's nobody who's served with you, who's endorsed you, have we?
[14:19.160 --> 14:22.920]  It's funny, I haven't asked anybody, and the reason I haven't asked anybody, I'm sitting
[14:22.920 --> 14:28.240]  at 3% in the national polls, and I really haven't gone out and asked any United States
[14:28.240 --> 14:32.360]  senator, I've haven't asked a single one to endorse me, because I felt like I had to earn
[14:32.360 --> 14:37.800]  it first, that I had to go out and prove to, you know, I lost my last race, and the general
[14:37.800 --> 14:43.320]  consensus was, you know, we like Rick, but, you know, who goes from losing their last
[14:43.320 --> 14:48.360]  Senate race to winning the presidential nomination, my answer that was, while Abraham Lincoln,
[14:48.360 --> 14:52.040]  but other than Abraham Lincoln, this is not a common occurrence, and so I don't know what
[14:52.040 --> 14:57.280]  he was going out on a limb to offer, given having served with you, knowing your credentials,
[14:57.280 --> 14:58.280]  knowing your principles.
[14:58.280 --> 15:02.800]  Yeah, again, no one's going to call you and say, you know, gee, can I, you know, can
[15:02.800 --> 15:08.440]  I help your campaign at 3%, and I would have said to them, you know, what, wait, because
[15:08.440 --> 15:12.560]  it doesn't matter, I don't really need or want Washington endorsements, that's not what
[15:12.560 --> 15:16.920]  I'm here to do, I'm here to change Washington, and so I didn't really seek out endorsements,
[15:16.920 --> 15:19.560]  I didn't really want their endorsements, I didn't think they would help very much.
[15:19.560 --> 15:20.720]  Would you seek them out now?
[15:20.720 --> 15:24.480]  If people want to endorse me, I'd love their endorsements, but that's not what I'm coming
[15:24.480 --> 15:29.600]  here to do, I'm not coming to, to be buddies with my friends and in the Senate and the
[15:29.600 --> 15:33.680]  House, I'm coming to change the entire nature of Washington, D.C., it's one of, one,
[15:33.680 --> 15:39.760]  one of the benefits, frankly, of being out and looking in and seeing what, you know, sometimes
[15:39.760 --> 15:43.520]  you said, you know, I was, you know, running as a consistent conservative, there are
[15:43.520 --> 15:47.400]  votes that I took, not that I advocated these things, but I voted for some things, I look
[15:47.400 --> 15:49.360]  back and say, why the heck did I do that?
[15:49.360 --> 15:54.760]  You get involved in sort of the idea that, well, you got to make things happen, and you
[15:54.760 --> 16:00.280]  forget sometimes, you know, sometimes making some things happen is better off making.
[16:00.280 --> 16:03.360]  I wonder if one of those examples might be pork barrel spending, because you're getting hit
[16:03.360 --> 16:07.000]  by Rick Perry about that, by supporting the notorious bridge to nowhere.
[16:07.000 --> 16:11.360]  Another pork barrel projects where you deliver cash for folks back in your home state,
[16:11.360 --> 16:15.120]  do you regret voting for some of those projects?
[16:15.120 --> 16:16.880]  You've defended pork barrel spending in the past.
[16:16.880 --> 16:21.600]  What I've said is that your role as a member of Congress, if you look at the Constitution,
[16:21.600 --> 16:22.600]  is to appropriate money.
[16:22.600 --> 16:25.440]  And of course, your appropriate money, you're going to say where that money is going to go.
[16:25.440 --> 16:28.480]  You're not going to say, well, here's the money Mr. President spending anywhere you want.
[16:28.480 --> 16:32.800]  And historically, Congress has taken the role of, you know, allocating those resources,
[16:32.800 --> 16:38.160]  and, you know, Jim Demen, who led the charge on pork barrel spending, earmarked things
[16:38.160 --> 16:39.160]  for years and years.
[16:39.160 --> 16:43.560]  And so what happened after I left Congress was, budgets began to explode.
[16:43.560 --> 16:47.360]  And I was in the Senate, I voted for tough budgets.
[16:47.360 --> 16:51.000]  I voted for restrictions on spending, and made sure that that didn't happen.
[16:51.000 --> 16:54.720]  And as president, I proposed cutting $5 trillion over five years.
[16:54.720 --> 16:58.680]  I proposed we're going to balance the budget, and at least five years, hopefully sooner.
[16:58.680 --> 17:03.520]  So if you're looking for someone who's voted for tough budgets, voted for spending restraints.
[17:03.520 --> 17:04.520]  But that wasn't my question.
[17:04.520 --> 17:07.440]  Do you regret supporting earmarks when you did?
[17:07.440 --> 17:11.840]  I don't regret going out at the time, and making sure that the people of Pennsylvania,
[17:11.840 --> 17:15.120]  who I was elected to represent, got resources back in the day.
[17:15.120 --> 17:17.960]  So if there's a certain funding, it's okay, but if the budget's tighter, it's not.
[17:17.960 --> 17:19.560]  What happened was abuse.
[17:19.560 --> 17:22.520]  There was abuse of this process, and I agreed with that.
[17:22.520 --> 17:24.760]  There wasn't abuse, and it was leading to more spending.
[17:24.760 --> 17:28.640]  It was leading to bigger spending bills, and it had to end, and I supported it.
[17:28.640 --> 17:30.760]  And I recorded an anti-freezing of America.
[17:30.760 --> 17:31.760]  Do you agree that's what it is?
[17:31.760 --> 17:35.280]  Well, that's pretty funny, because Rick Perry was hiring lobbyists to flee America then,
[17:35.280 --> 17:39.200]  because he was hiring lobbyists to represent the state of Texas to get more money back.
[17:39.200 --> 17:43.840]  And I suspect, if you ask K Hutchison, if you ask John Cornan, or any of the Texas delegation
[17:43.840 --> 17:47.560]  where the Rick Perry wanted money coming back to the state of Texas, the Texan sent there,
[17:47.560 --> 17:49.000]  he'd say, yes, he did.
[17:49.000 --> 17:53.400]  So look, there is a legitimate role for Congress to allocate resources.
[17:53.400 --> 17:55.800]  That's what the Constitution requires them to do.
[17:55.800 --> 17:58.720]  When there's abuse, then you curb the abuse, and I supported that.
[17:58.720 --> 18:00.840]  Let's talk about final arguments here in Iowa.
[18:00.840 --> 18:04.680]  Your latest ad talks about conservative credentials and electability.
[18:04.680 --> 18:06.680]  Let me play a portion of it.
[18:06.680 --> 18:12.840]  As the best chance to beat Obama, Rick Santorum, a full spectrum conservative, Rick Santorum
[18:12.840 --> 18:17.440]  is rock solid on values issues.
[18:17.440 --> 18:23.240]  So you've been making that contrast consistently questioning, Governor Romney, you calling
[18:23.240 --> 18:27.840]  him a liberal Massachusetts governor, arguing in fact that he is a moderate.
[18:27.840 --> 18:30.880]  You had back in 2008 when he was running for the presidency, you were singing a different
[18:30.880 --> 18:31.880]  tune.
[18:31.880 --> 18:33.240]  This was your press release back then.
[18:33.240 --> 18:37.120]  You said Governor Romney is the candidate who will stand up for the conservative principles
[18:37.120 --> 18:38.440]  that we hold dear.
[18:38.440 --> 18:42.280]  He is a deep understanding of the important issues confronting our country today, and he
[18:42.280 --> 18:46.880]  is the clear conservative candidate that can go into the general election with the United
[18:46.880 --> 18:48.320]  Republican Party.
[18:48.320 --> 18:51.960]  We'll stand up for the conservative principles that we hold dear you and praised his work
[18:51.960 --> 18:54.480]  on fighting same-sex marriage.
[18:54.480 --> 18:55.480]  What changed?
[18:55.480 --> 18:57.880]  Well, what changed was who he's running against?
[18:57.880 --> 19:03.200]  At the time, that was five days or four days before super Tuesday was after Florida.
[19:03.200 --> 19:06.880]  And it became clear to me that there were two candidates in the race at that point.
[19:06.880 --> 19:12.040]  I thought my cuckabee, I would have loved to have my cuckabee out there, but I made the
[19:12.040 --> 19:16.480]  political judgment right or wrong that the best chance to stop John McCain, which was
[19:16.480 --> 19:17.480]  what my concern was.
[19:17.480 --> 19:20.000]  I had served 12 years with John McCain.
[19:20.000 --> 19:24.240]  I like in respect John McCain immensely personally, and he's done a lot of great things
[19:24.240 --> 19:28.480]  obviously for this country, but I did not think he was the right person, based on my experience
[19:28.480 --> 19:32.840]  and deep knowledge of his record, that he was the right person to be the nominee.
[19:32.840 --> 19:36.800]  And so Rodney will stand up for the conservative principles that we hold dear, but you didn't
[19:36.800 --> 19:37.800]  say could do.
[19:37.800 --> 19:39.160]  Well, of course, I'm not going to say compared to.
[19:39.160 --> 19:43.080]  I mean, I'm trying to advocate for his candidate to see it at a time when you don't mean
[19:43.080 --> 19:44.080]  that.
[19:44.080 --> 19:47.440]  Well, I was saying it relative to John McCain, and that's what I meant then.
[19:47.440 --> 19:51.440]  And remember, it's not like I was an early supporter from the I endorsed him actually seven
[19:51.440 --> 19:53.000]  days before he dropped out of the race.
[19:53.000 --> 19:56.720]  So maybe I was a little bit of a, does he, does he have conservative values?
[19:56.720 --> 19:57.720]  It looks sort of principle.
[19:57.720 --> 20:02.560]  But of course, everybody on that stage that, that is in these debates has conservative values
[20:02.560 --> 20:06.960]  vis-a-vis president president Obama, and generally reflects the Republican party.
[20:06.960 --> 20:12.320]  The question is, are those values ones that you can trust when, when they become president
[20:12.320 --> 20:13.320]  of the United States?
[20:13.320 --> 20:17.400]  Is it someone who you know is going to fight not just for certain things, but for the
[20:17.400 --> 20:19.800]  entire Republican platform and plank, why?
[20:19.800 --> 20:24.040]  Because those things integrate together, and you've heard me talk about this many times.
[20:24.040 --> 20:28.280]  You can't have a strong economy, and just a strong economic plan unless you have strong
[20:28.280 --> 20:30.720]  families, and you have moral values in this country.
[20:30.720 --> 20:31.720]  Why?
[20:31.720 --> 20:32.720]  Because that's the underpinning of our system.
[20:32.720 --> 20:35.000]  But you're talking about a lot of the government.
[20:35.000 --> 20:40.160]  You're talking about trust as a, as a conservative, and you have accused Romney of tacking
[20:40.160 --> 20:44.920]  back and forth as he saw a election calling him a liberal governor from Massachusetts.
[20:44.920 --> 20:49.880]  But we look at your own record as well, running for reelection to the Senate in 2006
[20:49.880 --> 20:52.200]  in a Democratic state of Pennsylvania.
[20:52.200 --> 20:55.960]  Now, here in Iowa, you've taken the pledge, opposing abortion.
[20:55.960 --> 21:01.120]  Back on this program this summer, you said, you oppose abortion without exception.
[21:01.120 --> 21:02.120]  Right.
[21:02.120 --> 21:05.440]  And yet, when you were running for reelection in 2006, you had a different view.
[21:05.440 --> 21:07.120]  And this is what you told the Associated Press.
[21:07.120 --> 21:10.840]  The question was, do you support legalized abortion if a woman has been raped or if she
[21:10.840 --> 21:12.360]  is the victim of incest?
[21:12.360 --> 21:16.280]  What about if a woman's health or life is in danger, please explain your answer?
[21:16.280 --> 21:20.480]  Back then, you said, I would support laws that include exceptions in cases of rape and
[21:20.480 --> 21:23.360]  incest, and when the life of the mother is at risk.
[21:23.360 --> 21:27.520]  So didn't you when you were running for reelection, do the same thing you've accused Romney
[21:27.520 --> 21:31.080]  of, which is moderating your stance and trying to win a Democratic state?
[21:31.080 --> 21:34.200]  Today, I would support laws that would provide for those exceptions.
[21:34.200 --> 21:35.480]  But I'm not for them.
[21:35.480 --> 21:37.640]  In other words, I support the hide amendment.
[21:37.640 --> 21:41.200]  The hide amendment provides exception for rape and incest in the life of the mother.
[21:41.200 --> 21:45.600]  And so, yes, I support laws that provide those exceptions because if we can get those
[21:45.600 --> 21:47.960]  past, then we need to do that.
[21:47.960 --> 21:53.480]  But, I'm not a violation of your plans, I support the partial birth abortion ban act.
[21:53.480 --> 21:55.600]  That does that ban all abortions, no.
[21:55.600 --> 21:59.480]  But it moves the country in the right direction, and so what I've said in the past consistently
[21:59.480 --> 22:01.960]  is I'll support laws that move the ball forward.
[22:01.960 --> 22:05.480]  That doesn't mean that's my position and that's where I'd like to go, but that's exactly
[22:05.480 --> 22:08.240]  the direction we need to go in.
[22:08.240 --> 22:13.720]  The issue of moderation is goes beyond abortion.
[22:13.720 --> 22:17.920]  Back in 2006, you were fighting the idea that you were seen as too conservative.
[22:17.920 --> 22:23.320]  You had television ads, harolding the fact that you opposed reductions in the minimum
[22:23.320 --> 22:26.880]  ways that you were fighting cuts against Anttrak.
[22:26.880 --> 22:32.720]  Isn't your history to try to moderate both when fighting for reelection, but also as
[22:32.720 --> 22:35.840]  a member of Congress, to try to find common ground and to compromise?
[22:35.840 --> 22:38.920]  Of course, my background is to find compromise.
[22:38.920 --> 22:40.760]  That's what you have to do in order to get things done.
[22:40.760 --> 22:42.760]  You don't compromise on your principles.
[22:42.760 --> 22:44.800]  I use welfare reform as an example.
[22:44.800 --> 22:50.280]  I went out and helped author the welfare reform bill that became the contract with America
[22:50.280 --> 22:51.280]  Bill.
[22:51.280 --> 22:54.680]  And then when I was in the United States Senate, I managed that bill as a first term, first
[22:54.680 --> 22:56.080]  year member of the United States Senate.
[22:56.080 --> 23:00.400]  I went up against the annual Patrick Mornay and a Ted Kennedy, and battled over two
[23:00.400 --> 23:02.960]  vetoes of President Clinton was able to get it done.
[23:02.960 --> 23:04.400]  Did I make compromise as you bet?
[23:04.400 --> 23:09.640]  But the compromises I made were not fundamental to the transformation that was important
[23:09.640 --> 23:12.480]  to in welfare, which was to end the federal entitlement.
[23:12.480 --> 23:16.200]  The only bill that I'm aware of, only law that's actually ever ended a broad-based
[23:16.200 --> 23:19.240]  federal entitlement, I was the author and manager of the bill on.
[23:19.240 --> 23:24.400]  And we put time limits on welfare, and we put a work requirement in place.
[23:24.400 --> 23:27.240]  Those were the things that I believe were transformational.
[23:27.240 --> 23:29.040]  Was I willing to compromise on daycare funding?
[23:29.040 --> 23:30.040]  Yes, I was.
[23:30.040 --> 23:33.920]  Was I willing to compromise on transportation to get folks from welfare to work?
[23:33.920 --> 23:34.920]  Yes, I was.
[23:34.920 --> 23:39.760]  But what we did was something that was moving the direction of the more limited government
[23:39.760 --> 23:44.320]  and in order to get the necessary votes to get that done, you have to make compromise.
[23:44.320 --> 23:49.760]  But we did a direction of limited government, maybe less than what we wanted to.
[23:49.760 --> 23:53.360]  But we weren't going in the direction of more government and getting less of more.
[23:53.360 --> 23:56.880]  That's where Republicans have been in error for so many years.
[23:56.880 --> 24:00.720]  And that is compromising on just a little less big government.
[24:00.720 --> 24:04.040]  Instead of saying no, no more compromises and less big government.
[24:04.040 --> 24:09.720]  We'll compromise on less less government, but not going the other way.
[24:09.720 --> 24:16.840]  One of the things you look at as an insurgent party, trying to beat an incumbent president.
[24:16.840 --> 24:21.440]  And you said that a second term for president Obama would be dangerous for the country,
[24:21.440 --> 24:24.040]  is that you look at the party that's making the challenge.
[24:24.040 --> 24:28.920]  And here's the reality, disapproval for the Republican party right now in Congress.
[24:28.920 --> 24:34.080]  I should say approval of Republicans at Congress stands at 26%.
[24:34.080 --> 24:36.520]  That's far less than the president's approval rating.
[24:36.520 --> 24:40.120]  And Dan Ball is right, this and the Washington Post and his calm on Tuesday.
[24:40.120 --> 24:42.840]  For GOP candidates, worries about the party's brand.
[24:42.840 --> 24:46.800]  A year ago, after their big victory in the midterm elections, Republicans were full of confidence
[24:46.800 --> 24:49.680]  in anticipation as Americans looked toward next November.
[24:49.680 --> 24:53.720]  The question that many will be asking is, are the Republicans really ready to lead?
[24:53.720 --> 24:57.400]  In three political arenas, Congress, the states and the presidential campaign trail,
[24:57.400 --> 25:00.840]  Republicans have left a checkered record in the past year.
[25:00.840 --> 25:08.160]  In Congress, it was the debt debacle forcing a new shutdown of the government, the payroll
[25:08.160 --> 25:12.560]  tax debate that looked to go in the president's favor, the fight with the unions and the
[25:12.560 --> 25:14.560]  states like Wisconsin.
[25:14.560 --> 25:19.360]  Do you fault Republican leaders in Congress for not doing more to make government work better
[25:19.360 --> 25:20.800]  through more compromise with the president?
[25:20.800 --> 25:22.760]  You have to have someone you can work with.
[25:22.760 --> 25:27.280]  And this president has done more to divide than any other president that I've ever witnessed
[25:27.280 --> 25:28.280]  in my lifetime.
[25:28.280 --> 25:31.800]  The president goes out and gets speech after speech after speech, trying to divide America
[25:31.800 --> 25:36.720]  between class, between income group, between racial and ethnic groups.
[25:36.720 --> 25:41.560]  This is the great divider in chief, and it's very difficult when you're being lamppooned
[25:41.560 --> 25:46.840]  by the president on a regular basis, not just as a party but individually, to then and the
[25:46.840 --> 25:50.720]  president who I don't believe is met with Banner or any of the Republican leadership
[25:50.720 --> 25:55.600]  in now six months, hard to compromise and work with someone who won't meet with you, who
[25:55.600 --> 25:58.720]  won't sit down and try to negotiate things and try to talk.
[25:58.720 --> 26:03.760]  And so I'm not surprised at all that Republicans are having a difficult time with someone
[26:03.760 --> 26:04.760]  who has no interest with him.
[26:04.760 --> 26:09.360]  I mean, even the debt fight over the summer was a constant set of meetings, so that can't
[26:09.360 --> 26:10.360]  be accurate.
[26:10.360 --> 26:14.160]  Well, if you look at it, the last time he said meetings, I know it's been several months,
[26:14.160 --> 26:19.120]  and I know that President Bush, when I was there, and President Reagan routinely met on
[26:19.120 --> 26:23.360]  a regular basis with the other side and developed relationships.
[26:23.360 --> 26:28.280]  It's just about trust, and you don't build trust by going up and running around the country
[26:28.280 --> 26:29.720]  beating up on your opponent.
[26:29.720 --> 26:32.000]  You suppress enough everybody in this country.
[26:32.000 --> 26:35.600]  As President United States, I would be someone who would meet regularly, who would talk
[26:35.600 --> 26:37.760]  and try to build relationships of trust.
[26:37.760 --> 26:45.240]  So you don't, and this person has not done more Republicans for intransigence on taxes or spending
[26:45.240 --> 26:47.920]  or other areas of potential compromise with the president.
[26:47.920 --> 26:51.320]  Again, we go back to the basic fact.
[26:51.320 --> 26:55.160]  The federal government now is spending about 25% of GDP.
[26:55.160 --> 26:58.480]  That's historically the average is about 18%.
[26:58.480 --> 27:04.600]  We have an explosion of spending, and the problem in this country is government oppression,
[27:04.600 --> 27:08.240]  spending, and that's leading to huge deaths and deficits.
[27:08.240 --> 27:11.280]  What the Republicans have said is, no more.
[27:11.280 --> 27:15.760]  We are going to move in the direction of smaller government, and President Obama has no interest
[27:15.760 --> 27:16.760]  in doing that.
[27:16.760 --> 27:21.640]  I think Republicans are right to stand and fight on this, and the president seems to be
[27:21.640 --> 27:25.680]  absolutely disinterested in listening to what the American public said in the last election,
[27:25.680 --> 27:27.560]  which is we want more limited government.
[27:27.560 --> 27:28.920]  He did not get the message.
[27:28.920 --> 27:31.520]  I guess he's going to have to get this message, hopefully, in November.
[27:31.520 --> 27:33.800]  Before you go, I want to ask you about foreign policy.
[27:33.800 --> 27:37.520]  You've been very critical of the president, particularly on the issue of Iran, which has
[27:37.520 --> 27:39.840]  been a big issue of debate here in Iowa.
[27:39.840 --> 27:42.960]  Let me play a portion of that.
[27:42.960 --> 27:49.920]  And this president, for every thug in hole again, for every radical islamist.
[27:49.920 --> 27:52.960]  He has had nothing but appeasement.
[27:52.960 --> 28:00.280]  We saw that during the lead-up to war war two, appeasement.
[28:00.280 --> 28:04.800]  How can that possibly be accurate if you've taken an objective look at the foreign policy
[28:04.800 --> 28:06.240]  of this administration?
[28:06.240 --> 28:10.760]  What on Iran specifically separates the approach the President Obama has taken and that
[28:10.760 --> 28:11.760]  of President Bush?
[28:11.760 --> 28:17.200]  One, he didn't support the pro-democracy movement in Iran in 2009 during the Green Revolution.
[28:17.200 --> 28:21.500]  Almost immediately after the election, I mean, excuse me, like with hours after the
[28:21.500 --> 28:26.440]  polls closed, I'm a dynasiot announced that he won with 62% of the vote within a few days
[28:26.440 --> 28:29.680]  President Obama basically said that that was election was a legitimate one.
[28:29.680 --> 28:30.680]  What would that have done so well?
[28:30.680 --> 28:35.160]  Well, I understand why the President would understand that someone announcing a minute after
[28:35.160 --> 28:36.160]  the polls closed that he won.
[28:36.160 --> 28:38.240]  I mean, he comes from Chicago, so I get it.
[28:38.240 --> 28:42.640]  The problem is that this was an illegitimate election, that people in the streets were
[28:42.640 --> 28:45.720]  rioting, saying, please support us, President Obama.
[28:45.720 --> 28:47.080]  We are the pro-democracy movement.
[28:47.080 --> 28:51.040]  We want to turn this theocracy that has been at war with the United States that's developing
[28:51.040 --> 28:56.040]  a nuclear weapon that's killing our troops in Afghanistan and Iraq with IEDs, and the
[28:56.040 --> 28:58.840]  President-Eye States turned his back on them.
[28:58.840 --> 29:03.320]  At the same time, a few years later, we have the same situation where Muslim brotherhood
[29:03.320 --> 29:08.120]  and Islamist are in the streets of Egypt, opposing an ally of ours, not a sworn
[29:08.120 --> 29:09.120]  enemy like Iran.
[29:09.120 --> 29:11.120]  But an ally of ours and move on.
[29:11.120 --> 29:14.560]  And he joins the radicals instead of standing with our friends.
[29:14.560 --> 29:17.440]  The first of all, that's patently contradictory.
[29:17.440 --> 29:21.840]  If you say you support democracy, there was a democratic movement in Egypt, and the Muslim
[29:21.840 --> 29:22.840]  brotherhood got elected.
[29:22.840 --> 29:25.520]  So how could you be for democracy in some countries and not others?
[29:25.520 --> 29:26.840]  Because, which I think consists of.
[29:26.840 --> 29:29.560]  No, the Muslim brotherhood is not about democracy.
[29:29.560 --> 29:31.040]  The Muslim brotherhood is Islamist.
[29:31.040 --> 29:34.320]  The Muslim brotherhood are going to impose the real way of elected, is not what democracy
[29:34.320 --> 29:35.320]  is.
[29:35.320 --> 29:37.080]  No, and I ask you about disarming Iran.
[29:37.080 --> 29:42.440]  There is no material difference in terms of how the Bush administration sought to disarmer
[29:42.440 --> 29:45.000]  on and what the Obama administration has done.
[29:45.000 --> 29:47.280]  There's a material difference in this respect.
[29:47.280 --> 29:51.600]  Number one, the Bush administration worked with me in passing the Iran Freedom Support Act,
[29:51.600 --> 29:56.320]  which I authored, which imposed tough sanctions on the Iranian nuclear program and provided
[29:56.320 --> 29:59.000]  funding for the pro-democracy movement.
[29:59.000 --> 30:02.400]  When President Obama came into office, he cut that funding.
[30:02.400 --> 30:08.200]  President Obama did not provide funding into Iran to help those folks who wanted to overthrow
[30:08.200 --> 30:09.200]  this democracy.
[30:09.200 --> 30:12.560]  And when the time came to support them, he chose not to.
[30:12.560 --> 30:16.840]  That is a substantive difference between my policy, which I was a leader on in the Senate
[30:16.840 --> 30:19.680]  and what President Bush tried to do when he was present.
[30:19.680 --> 30:22.480]  There is no good option to disarmer Iran.
[30:22.480 --> 30:25.600]  The Bush administration knew that this administration knows that.
[30:25.600 --> 30:29.520]  Tell me what you would do differently, I put forth a five point plan that said, fund
[30:29.520 --> 30:31.160]  the pro-democracy movement.
[30:31.160 --> 30:33.920]  This is already being done, Senator.
[30:33.920 --> 30:34.920]  I know that.
[30:34.920 --> 30:39.000]  There's covert activity to set back their program by the Israelis, by the United States.
[30:39.000 --> 30:41.200]  Well, we know by the Israelis.
[30:41.200 --> 30:43.600]  We don't have any evidence if you look at what's being done.
[30:43.600 --> 30:47.480]  Most of the evidence actually trails back to the Israelis and the methodologies that they
[30:47.480 --> 30:48.480]  use.
[30:48.480 --> 30:52.160]  There's no evidence the United States is at all complicit in working at that.
[30:52.160 --> 30:57.720]  That's what I would be very direct that we would, in fact, and openly talk about this.
[30:57.720 --> 31:01.600]  Why? because I want to make sure that Iran knows that when I say that Iran is not getting
[31:01.600 --> 31:05.720]  a nuclear weapon, that we will actually effectuate policies that make that happen.
[31:05.720 --> 31:07.280]  This President has not done that.
[31:07.280 --> 31:10.880]  He has opposed tough sanctions on Iran on their oil program.
[31:10.880 --> 31:11.880]  Why?
[31:11.880 --> 31:15.200]  Because he's concerned about the economy and his reelection instead of the long-term
[31:15.200 --> 31:17.320]  national security interests of this country.
[31:17.320 --> 31:21.220]  I would say to every foreign scientist that's going into Iran to help them with their
[31:21.220 --> 31:25.360]  program, you will be treated as an enemy combatant like an al Qaeda member.
[31:25.360 --> 31:28.440]  And then finally, I would be working openly with the state of Israel.
[31:28.440 --> 31:31.880]  And I would be saying to the Iran age, you to open up those facilities, you begin to
[31:31.880 --> 31:36.160]  dismantle them and make them available to inspectors, or we will degrade those facilities
[31:36.160 --> 31:39.000]  through air strikes and make it very public that we are doing that.
[31:39.000 --> 31:42.640]  The President has done so you have to lay on a red line and if they passed it, air strikes
[31:42.640 --> 31:43.640]  by President Centaur.
[31:43.640 --> 31:47.280]  Iran will not get a nuclear weapon under my watch.
[31:47.280 --> 31:49.080]  Well, two previous presidents have said that.
[31:49.080 --> 31:51.800]  You would order air strikes if it would be clear that they were going to...
[31:51.800 --> 31:53.800]  That's the plan.
[31:53.800 --> 31:58.280]  You can't go out and say, this is the problem with this administration.
[31:58.280 --> 32:01.600]  You can't go out and say, this is what I'm for, and then do nothing.
[32:01.600 --> 32:05.840]  You become a paper tiger and people don't respect our country and our allies can't trust
[32:05.840 --> 32:06.840]  us.
[32:06.840 --> 32:07.840]  That's the problem with this administration.
[32:07.840 --> 32:11.360]  All right, before I let you go back to the politics, you're going to win this thing?
[32:11.360 --> 32:12.360]  I feel good.
[32:12.360 --> 32:13.360]  I mean, that's up to the people of Iraq.
[32:13.360 --> 32:17.240]  I've always said that the people of Iraq are the ones who I put my trust in and not just
[32:17.240 --> 32:18.240]  Iowa, New Hampshire.
[32:18.240 --> 32:19.800]  We've got a great team up in New Hampshire.
[32:19.800 --> 32:23.760]  We've got about two dozen state legislators who have signed on to our campaign.
[32:23.760 --> 32:27.520]  The county attorney's sheriffs, we've got a great team up there and we're going to have
[32:27.520 --> 32:30.320]  a big jump here and I don't know what it's going to be.
[32:30.320 --> 32:33.520]  But we're unlike Rick Perry, unlike Michelle Bach, when unlike others, we're going to
[32:33.520 --> 32:37.560]  New Hampshire because we're going to compete in every region of this country that I come
[32:37.560 --> 32:38.560]  from the Northeast.
[32:38.560 --> 32:41.880]  I've been able to get the blue collar voters, the Reagan Democrats to vote for me in the
[32:41.880 --> 32:43.680]  past and we're going to do the same thing.
[32:43.680 --> 32:45.040]  And that's why we're going to win this election.
[32:45.040 --> 32:46.040]  Senator Centaur, I'm thank you.
[32:46.040 --> 32:47.800]  We'll see you in New Hampshire for our debate next week.
[32:47.800 --> 32:48.800]  Thanks, David.
[32:48.800 --> 32:49.800]  Okay.
[32:49.800 --> 32:54.200]  On this New Year's Day, the final countdown to Iowa, Ron Paul with a strong showing
[32:54.200 --> 32:56.840]  in the polls, drawing fire now from his Republican rivals.
[32:56.840 --> 33:01.480]  While Mitt Romney said his sights on President Obama, who just four years ago pulled
[33:01.480 --> 33:04.480]  off a surprise, come from behind win here.
[33:04.480 --> 33:07.240]  Plus the president and his team gearing up for the fight as well.
[33:07.240 --> 33:11.120]  He's going to the important background state of Ohio the day after the caucuses.
[33:11.120 --> 33:13.080]  It's a new year in a new campaign.
[33:13.080 --> 33:15.680]  We'll break it all down with our political round table.
[33:15.680 --> 33:19.720]  Joining us, the DeWine Registers, Kathy O'Broadowich, Republican strategist Mike
[33:19.720 --> 33:25.200]  Murphy, David Brooks of the New York Times, Mark Helpern of Time Magazine, and NBC's
[33:25.200 --> 33:26.720]  Andrea Mitchell.
[33:26.720 --> 33:34.080]  Meet the press as brought to you by the Boeing company.
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[35:34.680 --> 35:40.440]  Iowa caucuses will have full analysis from our political roundtable joining me, Kathy
[35:40.440 --> 35:45.080]  Abroad of it from the Devoine Register, Mike Murphy, David Brooks, Mark Alperon, and NBC's
[35:45.080 --> 35:50.360]  Andrew Mitchell, up next after this brief commercial break.
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[37:51.280 --> 37:56.080]  In MSNBC.
[37:56.080 --> 37:58.120]  We are back with our political round table joining me.
[37:58.120 --> 38:02.200]  Republican strategist Mike Murphy, New York Times columnist David.
[38:02.200 --> 38:06.040]  Hi, magazine senior political analyst Mark Halpern, columnist for the Des Moines Register,
[38:06.040 --> 38:11.400]  Kathy of Rotovich and host of Andrea Mitchell reports on MSNBC, NBC's Andrea Mitchell.
[38:11.400 --> 38:12.400]  Welcome everybody.
[38:12.400 --> 38:13.400]  Thanks for being here.
[38:13.400 --> 38:14.400]  Happy New Year.
[38:14.400 --> 38:15.400]  Happy New Year.
[38:15.400 --> 38:16.720]  We have a political story to dig into.
[38:16.720 --> 38:22.800]  Major moments of the week in Kathy of Rotovich with the Des Moines Register Iowa as a toss-up.
[38:22.800 --> 38:23.800]  Who's going to win this thing?
[38:23.800 --> 38:29.400]  Boy, you know, it is a moving target right now and right now, all the movement is behind
[38:29.400 --> 38:36.920]  Rick Sandorum, our poll actually the first two days that we were in the field this week had
[38:36.920 --> 38:39.560]  Romney and Paul neck and neck.
[38:39.560 --> 38:45.800]  We actually had an illustration on the front page for our paper of Romney and Paul arm wrestling.
[38:45.800 --> 38:50.080]  And when we came inside the last two days of pulling, we had to, you know, put in Rick Sandorum
[38:50.080 --> 38:51.080]  into the picture.
[38:51.080 --> 38:55.040]  So he is the only candidate that is surging upward right now.
[38:55.040 --> 38:58.360]  Everybody else is static except Ron Paul who is trending down.
[38:58.360 --> 39:00.640]  I think he peaked a week ago.
[39:00.640 --> 39:06.280]  Mike Murphy, you're a veteran of these parts and also of the tactics of expectations.
[39:06.280 --> 39:11.640]  Sure, I spoke to some Romney folks last night who actually suggested they think Sandorum
[39:11.640 --> 39:13.120]  is going to win this thing.
[39:13.120 --> 39:16.640]  Are they setting us up to say, oh, what a win by Mitt Romney?
[39:16.640 --> 39:19.720]  Well, I think they think Sandorum might win this thing.
[39:19.720 --> 39:22.480]  They had two easily of a life seven days ago.
[39:22.480 --> 39:26.120]  They had gingrich declining and they had Ron Paul who would be very easy to beat in the
[39:26.120 --> 39:27.640]  full series of practices.
[39:27.640 --> 39:29.520]  So now they've got Rick Sandorum coming up fast.
[39:29.520 --> 39:32.880]  I think the surge totally legitimate, your pole shows that.
[39:32.880 --> 39:36.160]  And consolidating that social conservative vote, which in the past has always been the
[39:36.160 --> 39:39.080]  key to finishing at least second in the Iowa caucus.
[39:39.080 --> 39:43.560]  So I think they would love to beat the Sandorum, but if Sandorum beats them, they're still
[39:43.560 --> 39:47.520]  on the top two and there's great clarity, which is, there's no way Romney comes out of
[39:47.520 --> 39:49.160]  here at loser fees on the top two.
[39:49.160 --> 39:52.320]  But now he knows who is the opponent's going to be in a new hamster, which is not social
[39:52.320 --> 39:56.240]  conservative territory at all, and as they roll the process out.
[39:56.240 --> 39:58.000]  So I think the Romney people would like a win.
[39:58.000 --> 39:59.000]  I'm not sure they need one.
[39:59.000 --> 40:00.000]  I'm not sure they need one.
[40:00.000 --> 40:01.000]  I'm not sure they need one.
[40:01.000 --> 40:03.400]  Part of that analysis is, hey, Sandorum is good for us.
[40:03.400 --> 40:04.400]  We keep it expanded.
[40:04.400 --> 40:06.040]  You take that field to South Carolina.
[40:06.040 --> 40:07.040]  He'll go after Rick Perry.
[40:07.040 --> 40:10.480]  If Perry can stay in the race, better for Romney.
[40:10.480 --> 40:16.480]  If the issue is, who is the stalwart conservative, did Rick Sandorum help himself this morning
[40:16.480 --> 40:17.480]  in the final push?
[40:17.480 --> 40:18.480]  Thank you.
[40:18.480 --> 40:20.280]  It's convoluted answers to two of your questions.
[40:20.280 --> 40:25.240]  One about his support for Romney four years ago, and also on rape and incest exceptions
[40:25.240 --> 40:27.480]  on abortion when he was running in Pennsylvania.
[40:27.480 --> 40:29.200]  Right now, I see two buckets of scenarios.
[40:29.200 --> 40:32.680]  They're scenarios that are great for Mitt Romney, and the scenarios that are really good
[40:32.680 --> 40:34.360]  or decent for Mitt Romney.
[40:34.360 --> 40:38.920]  They would love to leave here with the top three in whatever order being Paul, Sandorum,
[40:38.920 --> 40:42.720]  and Romney, because they believe they will never lose in the long run, and maybe even the
[40:42.720 --> 40:45.320]  medium run to Sandorum or Paul.
[40:45.320 --> 40:49.520]  Gingrich and Perry represent bigger threats for them, and I think the worst case for Romney
[40:49.520 --> 40:52.120]  is if one of those two guys surges in the last few days.
[40:52.120 --> 40:55.040]  No indication that will happen, but they're both out there working hard.
[40:55.040 --> 40:56.600]  Andrea Mitchell, you've been out here reporting.
[40:56.600 --> 40:57.600]  What are you saying?
[40:57.600 --> 41:01.600]  Well, the crowds are much smaller than you'd expect, smaller than the Huckabee crowds were
[41:01.600 --> 41:04.880]  four years ago, but that there's that evangelical core.
[41:04.880 --> 41:09.840]  And when we talk about organization and enthusiasm, they're going to come out, and I think
[41:09.840 --> 41:15.480]  that as Mark and the rest of us all noticed with you today, Sandorum may have stubbed his
[41:15.480 --> 41:19.960]  toe a bit by you pinning him down on what he said when he was running for reelection
[41:19.960 --> 41:24.800]  in Pennsylvania in 2006, the exceptions that he previously agreed to.
[41:24.800 --> 41:28.600]  The fact that he is willing to compromise, he said not on his principles, but to get things
[41:28.600 --> 41:33.040]  done, a little bit convoluted, and the fact that he said he made a political decision to
[41:33.040 --> 41:37.200]  support Mitt Romney against John McCain, a political decision.
[41:37.200 --> 41:41.760]  If the crime David Brooks is moderation in today's Republican Party, what are we learning
[41:41.760 --> 41:46.840]  now, a couple of days away from actual voting beginning in a Republican caucus about the
[41:46.840 --> 41:47.840]  state of the party?
[41:47.840 --> 41:51.120]  Yeah, it's a pretty conservative party, but it's not, they don't want dogmatists, and I
[41:51.120 --> 41:53.080]  actually think Sandorum helped himself today.
[41:53.080 --> 41:55.360]  And his problem is not that he compromises too much.
[41:55.360 --> 41:58.360]  His problem is that people think he's too rigid, and he can show that he's a practical
[41:58.360 --> 41:59.360]  politician.
[41:59.360 --> 42:00.760]  I think that's a net plus for him.
[42:00.760 --> 42:04.080]  You know, Iowa has produced some candidates who have not gone on to great success, how could
[42:04.080 --> 42:05.880]  be Pat Robertson many years ago.
[42:05.880 --> 42:08.480]  I don't think Rick Sandorum is one of them.
[42:08.480 --> 42:12.280]  In part because he's got some working class credentials, as opposed to Romney, in part
[42:12.280 --> 42:16.600]  because he tells a very good story about connecting moral concerns with the economy.
[42:16.600 --> 42:19.600]  And partly he's just a good politician, you know, I covered him in the Senate when he
[42:19.600 --> 42:21.600]  lost badly in Pennsylvania.
[42:21.600 --> 42:23.480]  He was a pretty bad politician.
[42:23.480 --> 42:26.880]  If you look at him today, like you're a baseball scout looking at a pitcher, you'd say,
[42:26.880 --> 42:29.320]  yeah, this guy's good enough to play in the major leagues.
[42:29.320 --> 42:31.000]  So I think he's going to be reasonably strong.
[42:31.000 --> 42:33.880]  I'm not sure he's going to win the nomination, but reasonably strong going out of it.
[42:33.880 --> 42:36.760]  And you talked about the economic message that you think is, yeah, no, one thing that's
[42:36.760 --> 42:40.320]  not being covered as much because his base is social conservatives is he still the guy
[42:40.320 --> 42:44.880]  of the blue state, Pennsylvania chops, and he does a very good message on manufacturing jobs,
[42:44.880 --> 42:47.520]  which is a bell ring or an Easter to Iowa, which people don't, you know, from
[42:47.520 --> 42:48.520]  outside Iowa, don't know.
[42:48.520 --> 42:51.760]  This is a place where a lot of light manufacturing, and I make one other point about this
[42:51.760 --> 42:52.760]  morning.
[42:52.760 --> 42:53.760]  I thought he did fairly well too.
[42:53.760 --> 42:56.560]  He's always going to be pro-life enough, you know, for the pro-life voters.
[42:56.560 --> 42:58.320]  So that's not going to be his problem.
[42:58.320 --> 43:02.040]  But there's something else happening on Sunday morning, which is an evangelical church
[43:02.040 --> 43:03.600]  is across Iowa and the pulpit.
[43:03.600 --> 43:04.840]  They're seeing that pulpit.
[43:04.840 --> 43:07.560]  And they're seeing one of our guys is moving fast.
[43:07.560 --> 43:10.480]  And I think messages are going to go out and I'm going to be very bad for Perry going
[43:10.480 --> 43:14.080]  to be very bad for what's left of Bachman to go with Rick to win this Friday.
[43:14.080 --> 43:18.280]  In every study that social conservatives will move toward him and I'll say, that's it.
[43:18.280 --> 43:19.800]  That's the alternative we've been looking for.
[43:19.800 --> 43:22.400]  Social conservatives have been like all the other voters in Iowa.
[43:22.400 --> 43:25.040]  They have wanted to give everybody a try.
[43:25.040 --> 43:30.160]  And they are undecided and unwilling to unwell in our poll.
[43:30.160 --> 43:31.760]  They are not unified.
[43:31.760 --> 43:36.280]  Rick Santorum pulled about 23% of people who describe themselves as born again.
[43:36.280 --> 43:40.280]  But Ron Paul, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney each got 18%.
[43:40.280 --> 43:41.680]  So they're not united.
[43:41.680 --> 43:47.640]  They may indeed start moving that way in the interest of having one of them as Mike said
[43:47.640 --> 43:48.640]  at the top.
[43:48.640 --> 43:50.480]  Are we not this for everybody?
[43:50.480 --> 43:56.160]  The volatility we've seen in the polling here and who comes out of these debates.
[43:56.160 --> 43:57.720]  What does that tell us?
[43:57.720 --> 44:03.240]  Is it ultimately going to be portrayed as whether Romney can get above that 25% threshold?
[44:03.240 --> 44:04.520]  Is that not the big issue?
[44:04.520 --> 44:06.400]  I think it's a little deeper.
[44:06.400 --> 44:09.160]  One of the things that struck me from all the rallies I've seen out here is a sense
[44:09.160 --> 44:12.120]  that the country has gone seriously off course.
[44:12.120 --> 44:13.880]  And it's a values thing.
[44:13.880 --> 44:16.040]  And all the campaigns are trying to tap into this thing.
[44:16.040 --> 44:17.040]  We've lost it.
[44:17.040 --> 44:19.560]  Let's go back to what we've lost.
[44:19.560 --> 44:21.920]  And you see that in the crowds when you talk to the people.
[44:21.920 --> 44:23.960]  But when you ask them, what do you want to do?
[44:23.960 --> 44:24.960]  No one has a clue.
[44:24.960 --> 44:25.960]  Because they're bound to it.
[44:25.960 --> 44:26.960]  They're bound to it.
[44:26.960 --> 44:32.800]  And when you feel that anger, it's that wrong track number that we see is the anger against
[44:32.800 --> 44:33.800]  Washington.
[44:33.800 --> 44:36.040]  Ron Paul early on tapped into that.
[44:36.040 --> 44:41.640]  I think he really hurt himself on foreign policy and on making himself not electable.
[44:41.640 --> 44:46.760]  The sense in the polls that we saw starting with the polls on Wednesday, then our poll
[44:46.760 --> 44:53.000]  on Friday and he was today, he's just not acceptable to so many people because of his
[44:53.000 --> 44:58.480]  foreign policy positions and going into South Carolina in particular, that's going to be a very
[44:58.480 --> 44:59.480]  big problem.
[44:59.480 --> 45:02.080]  My gut as an old poll has always been the Ron Paul things overrated, and I'll go on
[45:02.080 --> 45:03.080]  the dangerous prediction limit.
[45:03.080 --> 45:04.080]  Thank you.
[45:04.080 --> 45:06.360]  He'll be the surprise to disappointing finish.
[45:06.360 --> 45:09.960]  A lot of his function is, we'll new people show up at the caucus.
[45:09.960 --> 45:12.200]  And we always get seduced by this argument because it's so much fun.
[45:12.200 --> 45:15.200]  Once you're Martian is going to land, we're going to have a Martian historically new
[45:15.200 --> 45:16.200]  people don't.
[45:16.200 --> 45:19.320]  For public and primary voters and activists, the question is when the range.
[45:19.320 --> 45:22.920]  I think because of the wrong track energy and frustration, it turned out actually be a little
[45:22.920 --> 45:23.920]  higher than last time.
[45:23.920 --> 45:24.920]  Not a lot.
[45:24.920 --> 45:25.920]  Just a little bit.
[45:25.920 --> 45:27.920]  The 27% of this poll are new caucus going on.
[45:27.920 --> 45:34.040]  I think we've got a different electorate than we did in 2008 because the Democrats don't
[45:34.040 --> 45:35.040]  have a contest.
[45:35.040 --> 45:41.040]  So you have people who are independents in particular, who want a caucus, and a lot of them
[45:41.040 --> 45:43.320]  are going toward Ron Paul.
[45:43.320 --> 45:49.200]  He is the least ideological on the social issues, and also what we're getting is I think
[45:49.200 --> 45:52.200]  a desperation for real change.
[45:52.200 --> 45:55.840]  And I think a lot of those folks are flocking toward Ron Paul because he is the guy who
[45:55.840 --> 45:56.840]  is completely different.
[45:56.840 --> 45:57.840]  Maybe.
[45:57.840 --> 45:59.880]  I think he was a sentiment, which is what all these polls measure early.
[45:59.880 --> 46:00.880]  There are noisemeter.
[46:00.880 --> 46:02.160]  But now it's time for voting.
[46:02.160 --> 46:03.160]  I don't know if he's a vote.
[46:03.160 --> 46:04.160]  And I think he could.
[46:04.160 --> 46:05.360]  Can I interject something else into this?
[46:05.360 --> 46:11.520]  So here's the Sunday New York Times and the lead story is Obama strategy for 12 election attack
[46:11.520 --> 46:12.520]  Congress.
[46:12.520 --> 46:16.440]  White House officials, so I've talked to say that that was sensationalized, that that
[46:16.440 --> 46:17.440]  was overwritten.
[46:17.440 --> 46:21.840]  Yes, the president's going to talk about contrast with Congress, but he certainly hopes
[46:21.840 --> 46:24.040]  and will work for cooperation.
[46:24.040 --> 46:28.400]  But we're beginning to see the outlines already in this contest of what the general election
[46:28.400 --> 46:29.840]  will look like.
[46:29.840 --> 46:32.800]  The general election campaign, no matter who the nominee is.
[46:32.800 --> 46:39.520]  Now here was then Senator Obama, when he won in Iowa back in 2008, this is what he said
[46:39.520 --> 46:40.520]  in part.
[46:40.520 --> 46:48.200]  The time has come for a president who will be honest about the choices and the challenges
[46:48.200 --> 46:49.200]  we face.
[46:49.200 --> 46:56.120]  For a listen to you and learn from you even when we disagree, who won't just tell you what
[46:56.120 --> 47:01.480]  you want to hear, but what you need to know.
[47:01.480 --> 47:05.880]  And Mitt Romney on the campaign trail this week is actually shadowing, where President
[47:05.880 --> 47:10.200]  Obama then Senator Obama campaigned in Iowa and he's got a very different message.
[47:10.200 --> 47:12.200]  This is it in a part.
[47:12.200 --> 47:17.600]  Four years ago this week, the Barack Obama visited Davenport and he gave a speech right
[47:17.600 --> 47:23.320]  down the street and, like most of his campaign speeches, it was long on promises.
[47:23.320 --> 47:27.720]  He promised that he was going to bring people together and then he closed his speech
[47:27.720 --> 47:28.720]  with these words.
[47:28.720 --> 47:33.760]  He says, this is our moment, this is our time.
[47:33.760 --> 47:37.560]  Well, Mr. President, you've had your moment.
[47:37.560 --> 47:43.240]  We've seen the results. And now, Mr. President, this is our time.
[47:43.240 --> 47:44.240]  Mr. President, this is our time.
[47:44.240 --> 47:46.240]  Mr. President, this is our time.
[47:46.240 --> 47:51.080]  Mr. President, the argument is that the transformational leader that President Obama was supposed
[47:51.080 --> 47:54.640]  to be, the truth tellers and tell Americans what they needed to know, not what they wanted
[47:54.640 --> 47:57.160]  to know, that that leader has failed to show.
[47:57.160 --> 48:01.000]  It's clearly the strongest message any Republican can have and Mitt Romney has driven it
[48:01.000 --> 48:03.040]  better than anyone else in the field.
[48:03.040 --> 48:08.360]  He also has run by every metric you can use to judge a campaign, fundraising, opposition
[48:08.360 --> 48:12.560]  research, tactics, strategy, far and away the best campaign of anyone in the race.
[48:12.560 --> 48:13.560]  And the White House is ready for him.
[48:13.560 --> 48:19.200]  Last night, New Year's Eve, Romney, in a late day event, says he would veto the dream act
[48:19.200 --> 48:22.800]  of giving more opportunity to immigrants to this country.
[48:22.800 --> 48:25.200]  The White House jumped on that New Year's Eve.
[48:25.200 --> 48:29.600]  David Daxorot, the President's advisor, tweeting about it, DNC putting out a press release.
[48:29.600 --> 48:31.080]  They are very aggressive.
[48:31.080 --> 48:32.560]  They are very skilled.
[48:32.560 --> 48:37.000]  If you're looking for electability, though, again, the only operation out there, right now,
[48:37.000 --> 48:40.840]  that's got anything like the potential of the scale that the President will bring to this
[48:40.840 --> 48:41.840]  is Mitt Romney.
[48:41.840 --> 48:46.000]  I would say he's at the organizational scale as events are like big aircraft carriers.
[48:46.000 --> 48:48.040]  I have a little problem with a messaging, though.
[48:48.040 --> 48:49.280]  Here it's all patriotism.
[48:49.280 --> 48:50.280]  It's Tom Sawyer.
[48:50.280 --> 48:51.280]  I love America.
[48:51.280 --> 48:52.520]  I used to drive through a lot of national parks.
[48:52.520 --> 48:53.520]  You love America.
[48:53.520 --> 48:57.120]  And the subtext is, you know, you might think I'm a rich guy with a strange religion, but
[48:57.120 --> 48:58.120]  I'm just like you.
[48:58.120 --> 49:02.520]  I actually think that's probably not enough to win in a country where people feel
[49:02.520 --> 49:06.960]  it's in decline, that the scope of his plans are not as big as the scope of the problems.
[49:06.960 --> 49:08.600]  A problem that also applies to the environment.
[49:08.600 --> 49:10.440]  But this week, though, right, potentially.
[49:10.440 --> 49:11.440]  Potentially.
[49:11.440 --> 49:12.440]  Yeah.
[49:12.440 --> 49:13.440]  I'm just not going to be silent, also.
[49:13.440 --> 49:14.440]  Right.
[49:14.440 --> 49:19.640]  We're going to take that on because this is a big issue about whether the President Obama
[49:19.640 --> 49:21.640]  has measured up as a leader.
[49:21.640 --> 49:26.320]  I mean, there's real fears of national decline, a sense of the countries on the wrong
[49:26.320 --> 49:27.320]  track.
[49:27.320 --> 49:31.040]  This is a campaign about big things, ultimately, for voters.
[49:31.040 --> 49:32.840]  The President is trying to respond to that.
[49:32.840 --> 49:36.680]  He's actually doing a video message to all of the Democratic caucus goers.
[49:36.680 --> 49:38.960]  He wants to be present in some fashion.
[49:38.960 --> 49:44.360]  So he is going to have Democratic caucusing with a presidential message by video.
[49:44.360 --> 49:47.760]  But the point is that he has not yet found a way.
[49:47.760 --> 49:52.800]  He has not found his voice, and they say that the New York Times story is overwritten that
[49:52.800 --> 49:56.280]  he's running against Congress that has worked for him in the payroll tax fight.
[49:56.280 --> 50:00.200]  But he still has to find that message for the state of the union for whatever his next platform
[50:00.200 --> 50:01.200]  is going to be.
[50:01.200 --> 50:06.280]  That is obviously the next one to tell people how the country can be better at a time where
[50:06.280 --> 50:11.080]  his only economic message can be, it's not as bad as it could have been, it's better
[50:11.080 --> 50:12.080]  than it was.
[50:12.080 --> 50:13.440]  Or, and the Republicans will make it worse.
[50:13.440 --> 50:14.440]  They'll take you back.
[50:14.440 --> 50:17.840]  Yeah, I think if David's point, there's a really interesting question for Mitt Romney
[50:17.840 --> 50:18.840]  next week.
[50:18.840 --> 50:19.840]  I think it's highly likely to stand normal.
[50:19.840 --> 50:20.840]  Come out here for a lot of energy.
[50:20.840 --> 50:21.840]  And I'll be second or first.
[50:21.840 --> 50:23.840]  But it'll settle down to that.
[50:23.840 --> 50:24.840]  It'll be what the media want.
[50:24.840 --> 50:25.840]  It'll be the race.
[50:25.840 --> 50:26.840]  And Rick will come out from the right.
[50:26.840 --> 50:27.840]  Quickly, the social right.
[50:27.840 --> 50:29.560]  If you're running around in the Romney campaign, you got a choice.
[50:29.560 --> 50:32.240]  You either just grind it out and have a contest on the right.
[50:32.240 --> 50:35.440]  You say you're pro-life, gay marriage, I say I'm pro-life.
[50:35.440 --> 50:38.600]  The White House is going to be giggling for three months of that.
[50:38.600 --> 50:42.160]  Or, do you know you've got the organizational strength in the depths, and Tom, it'll be
[50:42.160 --> 50:45.960]  like drinking from a fire hose for him to try to catch up if he comes out of here.
[50:45.960 --> 50:47.440]  Do you triangulate little things?
[50:47.440 --> 50:51.240]  Do you take a few risks in the primary, but do you bounce off and Tom to grab the middle again?
[50:51.240 --> 50:53.200]  Which is a much better general election strategy.
[50:53.200 --> 50:54.200]  It's a little risky in a prime.
[50:54.200 --> 50:56.240]  I'm going to get back to tactics in just a second.
[50:56.240 --> 51:01.800]  Dave Brooks, stay on this larger theme, which is the White House, I talk to senior advisors
[51:01.800 --> 51:05.560]  to say, look, we can win the broader vision of where the country is going and where it should
[51:05.560 --> 51:06.560]  go.
[51:06.560 --> 51:08.280]  We can win independent voters on that message.
[51:08.280 --> 51:11.360]  What is the vision that we're learning about of this Republican Party?
[51:11.360 --> 51:13.760]  Well, it's a vision that thinks the government is too big.
[51:13.760 --> 51:15.760]  It's become the government party.
[51:15.760 --> 51:19.440]  And the thing which I think San Torne brings to the table, which the others don't talk
[51:19.440 --> 51:22.520]  about as well, is community and values.
[51:22.520 --> 51:26.160]  He really, he was a big anti-poverty guy when he was in the Congress.
[51:26.160 --> 51:29.560]  He really talks about families and ties that to business a little better.
[51:29.560 --> 51:35.840]  That's been lacking from what has become a very libertarian anti-tax economic-only party.
[51:35.840 --> 51:38.000]  And if it is in danger of reverting back into that story.
[51:38.000 --> 51:41.400]  So Kathy, what are the storylines that come out of Tuesday, as you see them?
[51:41.400 --> 51:43.440]  Well, I think that there's a couple of things.
[51:43.440 --> 51:47.760]  One that we're very interested in here, and I always just how are the Iowa caucuses viewed
[51:47.760 --> 51:48.760]  nationally.
[51:48.760 --> 51:51.560]  And the results here will feed into that discussion.
[51:51.560 --> 51:56.480]  And it does somebody come out of Iowa that people perceive has very little chance of being
[51:56.480 --> 51:59.120]  the nominee, like Ron Paul or Rixie and Torne.
[51:59.120 --> 52:02.880]  That's something that we're worried about, and some Republicans are worried about that.
[52:02.880 --> 52:09.360]  And finally, I think that the question then is, how do the conservative spare in the future
[52:09.360 --> 52:10.360]  here in Iowa?
[52:10.360 --> 52:11.360]  Mark Comparin.
[52:11.360 --> 52:15.880]  We have every time that Romney's been challenged in this process, his very well-skilled opposition
[52:15.880 --> 52:19.840]  research team has killed the person who has challenged them, and killed Rick Perry, they
[52:19.840 --> 52:23.120]  have been lifted a finger to kill Rick's entourment.
[52:23.120 --> 52:26.240]  If he does come out of here and is Mike's right, it's perceived at least in the short-term
[52:26.240 --> 52:27.560]  as a two-person race.
[52:27.560 --> 52:30.640]  He may not have to choose between triangulation and competing on the right.
[52:30.640 --> 52:34.360]  They may just tactically kill Rick's entourment with an opposition research file that's
[52:34.360 --> 52:35.360]  like this.
[52:35.360 --> 52:36.360]  That's what I predict will happen.
[52:36.360 --> 52:38.360]  And then the question will be, can't send Torne survive that?
[52:38.360 --> 52:40.840]  Does he have the skill and the ability to fight back?
[52:40.840 --> 52:44.280]  Because he won't have the infrastructure, he won't have the money, he's talked about
[52:44.280 --> 52:47.160]  with you, he won't have the big endorsements and the people backing him to help him.
[52:47.160 --> 52:53.320]  I mean, almost $17 million spent in blanketing the airwaves here in Iowa, these outside
[52:53.320 --> 52:59.280]  groups, these superpacks, are pounding, and they did it without Romney, having to lift a finger.
[52:59.280 --> 53:03.280]  And the fact that Romney is not perceived, there is no blowback as there has been in past
[53:03.280 --> 53:08.160]  campaigns because of the, you know, Citizens United Supreme Court decision, which now
[53:08.160 --> 53:12.480]  has opened the door for these superpacks to come in, and they just killed Gingrich,
[53:12.480 --> 53:17.960]  so it's pummeled him. Not that he might not have self-destructed anyway, but they just
[53:17.960 --> 53:22.860]  went after him hammering Tongue and Mitt Romney doesn't get the blame.
[53:22.860 --> 53:27.020]  So in terms of the good for Mitt Romney right now, the minute he's no longer good for him,
[53:27.020 --> 53:28.740]  the superpacks will shift their focus.
[53:28.740 --> 53:30.400]  What's the story line Wednesday morning that were covering?
[53:30.400 --> 53:32.420]  Who the hell is St. Torne?
[53:32.420 --> 53:35.280]  But there's a point about this, it's not just the superpacks.
[53:35.280 --> 53:39.560]  And easier to crush a guy of negative ads with one state than in ten, St. Torne is, I think,
[53:39.560 --> 53:41.960]  a lot more competitive than a round Paul would be.
[53:41.960 --> 53:42.960]  But it's the media.
[53:42.960 --> 53:44.960]  The media works like the Jurassic Park Nine of Swords.
[53:44.960 --> 53:46.600]  30 feet tall, huge teeth,
[53:46.600 --> 53:48.360]  I'll do respect, not always the biggest brain.
[53:48.360 --> 53:49.760]  And it follows movement.
[53:49.760 --> 53:51.400]  And when it sees movement, Rick's in torment,
[53:51.400 --> 53:54.240]  stops over there and tries to eat Rick's in torment.
[53:54.240 --> 53:55.520]  And that's what next week is going to be like.
[53:55.520 --> 53:57.080]  He's going to be the happiest guy in the world,
[53:57.080 --> 53:58.080]  I think Tuesday night.
[53:58.080 --> 54:00.040]  Wednesday, he's got a stand in his head,
[54:00.040 --> 54:01.760]  drink from a fire hose without drowning,
[54:01.760 --> 54:04.680]  and learn Chinese in one week to roll this thing out nationally.
[54:04.680 --> 54:05.680]  Not impossible.
[54:05.680 --> 54:06.480]  He's going to be hard.
[54:06.480 --> 54:07.880]  And he's going to get looked at hard.
[54:07.880 --> 54:10.680]  One of the weird things, I mean, Mike thinks we have small brains.
[54:10.680 --> 54:13.040]  But Rick's in torment really hates us sometimes.
[54:13.040 --> 54:14.640]  And when it's in torment, we're in a bad campaign,
[54:14.640 --> 54:16.880]  which he did when he could try to get reelected in Pennsylvania.
[54:16.880 --> 54:18.800]  It's because he got obsessed with the media.
[54:18.800 --> 54:21.880]  He got very sour and then he self-destructed.
[54:21.880 --> 54:24.000]  And we'll see how temperamentally he reacts to this sort of time.
[54:24.000 --> 54:27.440]  Where does this thing get decided, Andrea?
[54:27.440 --> 54:32.000]  It could get decided in South Carolina or Florida, if not sooner.
[54:32.000 --> 54:35.360]  Let's look at the calendar to remind people where we go
[54:35.360 --> 54:36.640]  as we move forward.
[54:36.640 --> 54:40.320]  Tuesday, of course, the Iowa caucuses.
[54:40.320 --> 54:44.120]  You know, Hampshire primary is January 10th of the following Tuesday,
[54:44.120 --> 54:48.320]  January 21st, the South Carolina, January 31st, Florida.
[54:48.320 --> 54:50.400]  Mark, this is a busy January.
[54:50.400 --> 54:53.560]  Does this auger for it being wrapped up in January
[54:53.560 --> 54:56.080]  or just become a drawn out 2008, like a fair?
[54:56.080 --> 55:00.560]  Unless someone can beat Mitt Romney in one of the first four,
[55:00.560 --> 55:02.760]  or two of the first four, I think it's wrapped up
[55:02.760 --> 55:04.080]  by the state of the union.
[55:04.080 --> 55:07.520]  If he's cut, and he shows a lot of weakness, that's a different story,
[55:07.520 --> 55:09.720]  but there's no indication of that right now.
[55:09.720 --> 55:13.280]  If he wins, no Hampshire, and he wins Florida,
[55:13.280 --> 55:15.000]  that's a neck break on everybody else.
[55:15.000 --> 55:17.000]  Now, to possible win, the delegate count is later,
[55:17.000 --> 55:18.760]  but I think he is a commanding front runner today
[55:18.760 --> 55:19.600]  after the Florida primary.
[55:19.600 --> 55:22.960]  If he has a strong thick, how long are bulls his president Obama?
[55:22.960 --> 55:23.720]  He's vulnerable.
[55:23.720 --> 55:27.040]  I'd say he's now a slight underdog, very slight.
[55:27.040 --> 55:28.280]  The economy's going to be terrible.
[55:28.280 --> 55:29.760]  Who knows what's going to happen to Europe?
[55:29.760 --> 55:30.960]  So he's vulnerable.
[55:30.960 --> 55:32.840]  He doesn't have the strongest opposition in the world.
[55:32.840 --> 55:34.760]  Matthew, you're on the ground here in Iowa.
[55:34.760 --> 55:36.040]  Who's going to win this thing?
[55:36.040 --> 55:38.040]  You know, I can't predict it.
[55:38.040 --> 55:41.240]  It's too fast moving, but I will predict that a lot of people
[55:41.240 --> 55:43.240]  are going to make up their mind on caucus night,
[55:43.240 --> 55:45.840]  and a very well could be a surprise.
[55:45.840 --> 55:47.000]  All right, I'll leave it there.
[55:47.000 --> 55:48.200]  Thank you all very much.
[55:48.200 --> 55:49.600]  Before we go a programming note,
[55:49.600 --> 55:52.600]  next Sunday morning is our live NBC News Facebook,
[55:52.600 --> 55:56.040]  Republican presidential debate right here on Meet the Press,
[55:56.040 --> 55:58.960]  the final debate before the New Hampshire primary.
[55:58.960 --> 56:00.440]  For the past month, we've been asking
[56:00.440 --> 56:01.840]  New Hampshire Facebook users
[56:01.840 --> 56:04.040]  what the most important issue is.
[56:04.040 --> 56:06.000]  I'm Aran, overwhelming majority as you might
[56:06.000 --> 56:09.120]  suspect 58% say it is, in fact, the economy.
[56:09.120 --> 56:12.160]  So if you have a question you'd like asked in the debate,
[56:12.160 --> 56:16.160]  go to our Facebook page that's at facebook.com slash Meet the Press,
[56:16.160 --> 56:17.640]  and you can post it there.
[56:17.640 --> 56:18.600]  That is all for today.
[56:18.600 --> 56:20.640]  I'll be on the ground here in Iowa through the caucuses,
[56:20.640 --> 56:23.240]  and then on to New Hampshire reporting on the primary.
[56:23.240 --> 56:27.240]  We'll be back next week with our live presidential candidate debate.
[56:27.240 --> 56:32.240]  If it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.
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[57:37.240 --> 57:38.240]  hope for what you want.
[57:38.240 --> 57:40.240]  You have to have a plan,
[57:40.240 --> 57:42.240]  and then you have to get on.
[57:42.240 --> 57:46.240]  I have a message for anyone who is ever struggling with us.
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[57:49.240 --> 57:51.240]  I'm on it, and I've already seen results.
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[57:59.240 --> 58:26.240]  Get on it.
[58:30.240 --> 58:34.240]  What need to be done by the chef?
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[58:53.240 --> 58:55.240]  So there's no trace of levity,
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[58:57.240 --> 59:03.640]  What is it about taking a first step that we find so compelling?
[59:03.640 --> 59:08.040]  Is it because taking a step represents hope?
[59:08.040 --> 59:11.320]  Or triumph?
[59:11.320 --> 59:16.440]  A gen worth we believe in taking small steps every day to keep your promises, protect
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[59:20.200 --> 59:24.640]  No matter where you want to go, one step at a time is the only way to get there.
[59:24.640 --> 59:30.640]  This is not the number we talked about.
[59:30.640 --> 59:32.640]  That's our phone number.
[59:32.640 --> 59:35.640]  No surprise pricing is one thing that makes Pearl Vision different, and here's something
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[59:49.640 --> 59:58.640]  Don't our dogs deserve to eat fresher, less processed foods, just like we do?
[59:58.640 --> 01:00:20.640]  Introducing fresh pet.