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     <p>The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, [Formula: see text] and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.</p>
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          <apply>
            <plus/>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_1 </ci>
              <cn> 0.025 </cn>
            </apply>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_2 </ci>
              <cn> 0.042 </cn>
            </apply>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_3 </ci>
              <cn> 0.05 </cn>
            </apply>
          </apply>
        </math>
            </assignmentRule>
      <assignmentRule variable="p">
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">        
          <apply>
            <plus/>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_1 </ci>
              <cn> 0.0784 </cn>
            </apply>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_2 </ci>
              <cn> 0.045 </cn>
            </apply>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_3 </ci>
              <cn> 0.0466 </cn>
            </apply>
          </apply>
        </math>
            </assignmentRule>
      <assignmentRule variable="z">
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">        
          <apply>
            <plus/>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_1 </ci>
              <cn> 0.4374 </cn>
            </apply>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_2 </ci>
              <cn> 0.3914 </cn>
            </apply>
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Trigger_Stage_3 </ci>
              <cn> 0.4047 </cn>
            </apply>
          </apply>
        </math>
            </assignmentRule>
      <assignmentRule variable="N">
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">        
          <apply>
            <plus/>
            <ci> Infected </ci>
            <ci> Removed </ci>
            <ci> Susceptible </ci>
          </apply>
        </math>
            </assignmentRule>
      <assignmentRule variable="I_total">
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">        
          <apply>
            <plus/>
            <ci> Infected </ci>
            <ci> Removed </ci>
          </apply>
        </math>
            </assignmentRule>
      <assignmentRule variable="beta">
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">        
          <apply>
            <times/>
            <ci> beta_0 </ci>
            <apply>
              <power/>
              <apply>
                <minus/>
                <cn> 1 </cn>
                <ci> p </ci>
              </apply>
              <csymbol encoding="text" definitionURL="http://www.sbml.org/sbml/symbols/time"> time </csymbol>
            </apply>
          </apply>
        </math>
            </assignmentRule>
    </listOfRules>
    <listOfReactions>
      <reaction fast="false" id="Susceptible_to_Infected" metaid="COPASI15" name="Susceptible_to_Infected" reversible="false">
        <annotation>
          <rdf:RDF xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#" xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/" xmlns:vCard="http://www.w3.org/2001/vcard-rdf/3.0#" xmlns:vCard4="http://www.w3.org/2006/vcard/ns#" xmlns:bqbiol="http://biomodels.net/biology-qualifiers/" xmlns:bqmodel="http://biomodels.net/model-qualifiers/">
            <rdf:Description rdf:about="#COPASI15">
	<bqbiol:is>
	<rdf:Bag>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://identifiers.org/ncit/C128320"/>
	</rdf:Bag>
	</bqbiol:is>
	</rdf:Description>
	
	
	
          </rdf:RDF>
          <COPASI xmlns="http://www.copasi.org/static/sbml">
            <rdf:RDF xmlns:CopasiMT="http://www.copasi.org/RDF/MiriamTerms#" xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/" xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#">
              <rdf:Description rdf:about="#COPASI15">
                <dcterms:created>
                  <rdf:Description>
                    <dcterms:W3CDTF>2020-12-22T01:22:01Z</dcterms:W3CDTF>
                  </rdf:Description>
                </dcterms:created>
                <CopasiMT:is rdf:resource="urn:miriam:ncit:C128320"/>
              </rdf:Description>
            </rdf:RDF>
          </COPASI>
        </annotation>
              <listOfReactants>
          <speciesReference constant="true" species="Susceptible" stoichiometry="1"/>
        </listOfReactants>
        <listOfProducts>
          <speciesReference constant="true" species="Infected" stoichiometry="1"/>
        </listOfProducts>
        <listOfModifiers>
          <modifierSpeciesReference species="Infected"/>
        </listOfModifiers>
        <kineticLaw>
          <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">          
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Malayasia </ci>
              <apply>
                <ci> Rate_Law_for_reaction </ci>
                <ci> z </ci>
                <ci> beta </ci>
                <ci> Susceptible </ci>
                <ci> Infected </ci>
                <ci> N </ci>
              </apply>
            </apply>
          </math>
                </kineticLaw>
      </reaction>
      <reaction fast="false" id="Infected_to_Removed" metaid="COPASI16" name="Infected_to_Removed" reversible="false">
        <annotation>
          <rdf:RDF xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#" xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/" xmlns:vCard="http://www.w3.org/2001/vcard-rdf/3.0#" xmlns:vCard4="http://www.w3.org/2006/vcard/ns#" xmlns:bqbiol="http://biomodels.net/biology-qualifiers/" xmlns:bqmodel="http://biomodels.net/model-qualifiers/">
            <rdf:Description rdf:about="#COPASI16">
	<bqbiol:is>
	<rdf:Bag>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://identifiers.org/ncit/C25746"/>
	</rdf:Bag>
	</bqbiol:is>
	</rdf:Description>
	
	
	
          </rdf:RDF>
          <COPASI xmlns="http://www.copasi.org/static/sbml">
            <rdf:RDF xmlns:CopasiMT="http://www.copasi.org/RDF/MiriamTerms#" xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/" xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#">
              <rdf:Description rdf:about="#COPASI16">
                <dcterms:created>
                  <rdf:Description>
                    <dcterms:W3CDTF>2020-12-22T01:22:03Z</dcterms:W3CDTF>
                  </rdf:Description>
                </dcterms:created>
                <CopasiMT:is rdf:resource="urn:miriam:ncit:C25746"/>
              </rdf:Description>
            </rdf:RDF>
          </COPASI>
        </annotation>
              <listOfReactants>
          <speciesReference constant="true" species="Infected" stoichiometry="1"/>
        </listOfReactants>
        <listOfProducts>
          <speciesReference constant="true" species="Removed" stoichiometry="1"/>
        </listOfProducts>
        <kineticLaw>
          <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">          
            <apply>
              <times/>
              <ci> Malayasia </ci>
              <ci> delta </ci>
              <ci> Infected </ci>
            </apply>
          </math>
                </kineticLaw>
      </reaction>
    </listOfReactions>
  </model>
</sbml>