Appendix Table 1: Forecaster Accuracy on Selected AI Progress Questions

Judged against resolution or latest observed value Underestimated AI progress Overestimated AI progress Accurate
Judged against LLM projection Underestimated AI progress Overestimated AI progress Accurate
Forecast source LEAPLongitudinal Expert AI Panel XPTExistential Risk Persuasion Tournament BioriskLLM Biorisk and Active Site RCT CyberAICyber Risks EEAIForecasting the Economic Effects of AI RDRoots of Disagreement on AI Risk
Question Category Source & forecast window Status Resolution
date		 Expert
median*		 Superforecaster
median		 LLM
projection		 Last
observed		 Resolution