Reports: Tuesday, July 14, 2026, before market open | Conference call 8:30 a.m. ET
BAC shares closed at $59.52 on July 13, near an all-time high after touching $59.90 earlier in the week, and are up roughly 24% over the past year — a period in which the stock has still trailed peers Goldman Sachs (+45%), Morgan Stanley (+53%) and Citigroup (+61%). Bank of America has been closing that performance gap over the past month as investors have rotated into laggard bank names. Berkshire Hathaway remains a top-5 holder (~514 million shares, ~7% stake, ~$32B) despite Warren Buffett having cut the position roughly in half over the past two years.
Consensus for Q2 2026 (per Street estimates): - EPS: $1.12 (+25% y/y) - Revenue: $30.56B - Net Interest Income (NII): $16.1B (+9.2% y/y) - Noninterest income: $14.2B (+11.8% y/y)
That EPS growth rate would essentially match Q1's pace, so the bar is high — the market is pricing in continued momentum, not just a "beat and hold."
Q1 was a strong quarter that reset expectations higher heading into Q2:
Critically, management raised full-year 2026 NII guidance to +6–8% y/y (from a prior lower range), citing outperformance in Q1, a shift in rate-cut expectations (from two cuts to essentially none priced in), and continued fixed-rate asset repricing, balance growth and funding optimization. They reiterated the 200–300bps operating leverage target and said incremental NII upside should "drop to the bottom line," implying operating leverage could land at the higher end of the range if NII keeps outperforming.
1. Net Interest Income — can the raised guide hold? NII has been the single biggest swing factor all year. Management explicitly flagged that the comp gets harder in the second half of 2026 because last year's fixed-asset repricing benefit was more heavily weighted to H2 2025 — meaning the y/y NII growth rate could decelerate even as dollar NII keeps climbing. With the rate-cut outlook now shifted toward "no cuts" rather than the two previously expected, watch whether that continues to support NII, and whether Global Markets-related NII (a rate-sensitive tailwind) is beginning to plateau as Alastair Borthwick suggested it might if rates stop falling.
2. Trading and Investment Banking momentum Q1's equities revenue was a record (+30% y/y) and IB fees rose 21%. The July 13 hiring of nine senior middle-market bankers across nine U.S. cities signals continued investment banking expansion, and Bank of America's decision to extend a $520M credit line to OpenAI — a notable pivot toward financing pre-IPO, cash-burning tech names — points to management chasing future capital-markets fee opportunities. Investors will want to know whether capital markets pipelines (M&A, ECM) kept building through Q2, and whether trading activity stayed elevated amid ongoing geopolitical and rate volatility.
3. Expense discipline / operating leverage BAC has consistently converted revenue growth into wider operating leverage (290bps in Q1) while still investing in technology, AI and headcount in revenue-producing roles — even as total headcount has ticked down through attrition (down ~1,070 people since year-end 2025 as of Q1). Watch for confirmation expenses stay in line with the "roughly 4%" y/y growth cadence and whether 200bps+ operating leverage guidance is reaffirmed or raised.
4. Credit quality Q1 credit metrics were broadly benign: charge-offs, delinquencies and criticized assets all improved y/y, and CRE office exposure saw its first quarter with no new nonperforming inflows in three years. Management has also provided new disclosure on Global Markets/private-credit-adjacent lending exposure, emphasizing structural insulation (borrowing-base structures, no reliance on sponsor marks) — a topic likely to resurface given ongoing market scrutiny of private credit risk.
5. Capital, buybacks and regulatory clarity CET1 stood at 11.2% (Standardized) as of Q1, with management guiding toward operating with roughly a 50bp buffer above regulatory minimums over time as clarity increases on Basel III endgame and G-SIB surcharge reform. Any updates on the finalized rules (comment period closed mid-June) and their capital impact will be closely watched, along with the pace of buybacks (should track NII/earnings strength) — BAC repurchased $7.2B in Q1.
6. Payments network speculation BAC is reportedly among several large banks (with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and PNC) that have held preliminary talks about acquiring Fiserv's payments network — a move that could provide exemption from debit-card fee caps, though it carries political-backlash risk. Any commentary on strategic payments ambitions would be a wildcard datapoint.
7. Regulatory/reputational noise Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked the Fed's inspector general to review whether Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman breached rules by speaking at a private BAC client dinner — a minor overhang but one that could draw a question on the call regarding the bank's regulatory relationships.
| Segment | Q1'26 Net Income | Key Q1 Drivers | What to Watch in Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | $3.1B (+21% y/y) | NII growth, 4th straight quarter of deposit growth, record 38.5M checking accounts | Card spend trends, deposit mix (non-interest-bearing growth), consumer credit trends amid inflation/K-shaped spending debate |
| Global Wealth & Investment Mgmt | $1.3B (+32% y/y) | Record revenue, AUM fees +15%, strong flows, 26% pretax margin | Advisor recruiting/retention progress, margin trajectory, market-driven AUM levels |
| Global Banking | $2.1B (+8% y/y) | IB fees +21%, loan growth from revolver utilization | Sustained C&I/middle-market loan growth, deposit costs, further IB fee momentum |
| Global Markets | $2.0B (flat y/y vs. tough comp) | Equities record quarter, FICC steady, no trading-loss days | Durability of trading revenue, capital allocated to the business, VaR trends |
Going into Tuesday's print, Bank of America carries some of the highest expectations of the recent earnings cycle: consensus calls for 25% EPS growth, a 9%+ NII increase, and double-digit fee growth — essentially a continuation of Q1's strong trajectory. The stock's move to record highs and outperformance versus peers over the past month suggests the market largely expects BAC to deliver. The key swing factors are (1) whether management reiterates or further raises the 6–8% full-year NII growth guide, (2) whether operating leverage stays above 200bps even as expense comps get tougher, (3) whether trading and IB fee momentum persisted through Q2, and (4) any incremental read-through on capital plans/buybacks as Basel III endgame clarity improves. Credit quality, while unlikely to be a major surprise given the benign trend, remains worth monitoring given ongoing industry chatter about underwriting discipline in private-credit-adjacent lending.