Report date: July 14, 2026, before the U.S. market open
Conference call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
Closing share price on July 13: $59.52
Bank of America enters the quarter with unusually strong and broad-based momentum. Net interest income is benefiting from fixed-rate asset repricing, loan and deposit growth remains healthy, capital-markets activity has improved, and management has already indicated that second-quarter trading and investment-banking results should be strong.
That also means the immediate numbers may be less important than the outlook. Management effectively previewed much of the quarter in June, including more than 15% growth in trading revenue, approximately $1.8 billion of investment-banking fees, and more than 400 basis points of positive operating leverage. With the stock recently trading near record highs, a simple consensus beat may not be sufficient.
The central question is whether BAC can raise or reinforce its 2026 earnings trajectory—particularly its net interest income outlook—without taking more credit risk or allowing expenses to accelerate.
| Metric | 2Q26 consensus | 2Q25 actual | Implied YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS | $1.12 | $0.89 | +26% |
| Revenue | $30.56B | $26.46B | +15% |
| Net interest income | $16.1B | $14.8B FTE | ~+9% |
| Noninterest income | $14.2B | $11.8B | ~+20% |
The comparisons are favorable, but expectations are no longer low. In particular, management's June comments suggest that a substantial portion of the projected upside is already visible.
BAC produced $15.9 billion of FTE net interest income in 1Q26, up 9% year over year and approximately flat with 4Q25 despite two fewer interest-accrual days. Management then raised its full-year 2026 NII growth forecast to 6%–8%, versus 2025.
The second-quarter consensus of approximately $16.1 billion would represent:
BAC's structural repricing opportunity remains an important differentiator. Lower-yielding securities, mortgages, auto loans and hedges continue to roll over into higher yields, and management has described this as a multiyear—not merely quarterly—tailwind.
The reported NII figure is less important than the following:
Does management raise the 6%–8% full-year growth range?
BAC maintained that outlook as recently as June. Given the stronger-for-longer rate backdrop, an unchanged range could be viewed as conservative—but may also leave investors wanting more.
How much of NII growth is coming from core banking?
Management expects a greater share of future growth to come from Consumer Banking, Global Banking and Wealth, rather than rate-driven NII inside Global Markets.
Are deposit costs still controlled?
In 1Q, BAC's total deposit rate declined 16 basis points to 1.47%. Continued pricing discipline would show that the bank is not buying balance growth at unattractive rates.
Is balance-sheet growth improving the earnings mix?
BAC has roughly $100 billion of higher-cost CDs and repo funding that it believes can run off over time while core loans and deposits grow. Progress here can improve net interest yield even if total assets do not change dramatically.
Best outcome: NII above $16.1 billion, stable deposit pricing, and either a guidance increase or commentary that points toward the top end or above the existing range.
Management's June update substantially reduced uncertainty around the fee businesses.
Co-President Jim DeMare indicated that:
For comparison, BAC generated $5.3 billion of sales-and-trading revenue and $1.4 billion of investment-banking fees in 2Q25. Management's indications therefore imply another strong quarter and continued market-share progress.
BAC's diversified trading franchise has now produced a long sequence of year-over-year revenue growth. Another strong quarter would reinforce the case that the improvement is structural and client-driven, not simply the result of temporary volatility.
Management expects more than 400 basis points of positive operating leverage in 2Q26, up from 290 basis points in the first quarter. That is a high bar, but one BAC itself established.
The underlying setup is favorable:
Investors should distinguish between:
Management has targeted 200–300 basis points of annual operating leverage over the medium term and more than 200 basis points for 2026. If BAC delivers more than 400 basis points this quarter while maintaining investment spending, confidence in the bank's 16%–18% medium-term ROTCE goal should increase.
A strong revenue quarter paired with a large underlying expense increase would raise questions about how much earnings power is actually reaching shareholders. The market is likely to be more forgiving of revenue-related compensation than of higher structural headcount, technology duplication or litigation expense.
First-quarter credit performance was favorable:
BAC's 2Q25 comparison includes $1.5 billion of net charge-offs, a 55-basis-point loss rate and $1.6 billion of provision expense. A year-over-year improvement is therefore plausible.
BAC has argued that its comparatively low reserve ratios reflect a higher-quality loan mix, including less unsecured consumer exposure and more secured wealth lending. That case is supported by its historically low loss rates in Federal Reserve stress tests. Nevertheless, aggressive reserve releases would probably be poorly received given geopolitical, energy-price and inflation uncertainty.
Preferred result: Stable or lower charge-offs, continued office improvement and only modest reserve movement. Earnings quality would be strongest if the EPS beat comes from pretax, pre-provision growth rather than unusually low provisioning.
In 1Q26:
Part of the first-quarter commercial loan increase came from higher revolver utilization, estimated by management at roughly $5 billion to $10 billion. BAC characterized those draws as normal working-capital activity rather than defensive borrowing.
For 2Q, investors should look for:
Strong volume growth is valuable only if accompanied by disciplined pricing and credit selection.
Global Wealth and Investment Management produced record first-quarter revenue of $6.7 billion, with:
Higher market levels should support asset-management fees in the second quarter. Organic flows, adviser recruiting and lending to affluent clients can provide additional upside.
The most useful metrics will be:
Recent adviser recruiting and the bank's continued investment in wealth distribution suggest BAC is trying to improve a business that can generate attractive, capital-light returns.
BAC ended 1Q26 with:
Management has indicated that it ultimately wants to operate with a capital buffer of roughly 50 basis points above its regulatory minimum, subject to final capital rules. Increased regulatory clarity has already allowed BAC to deploy more capital into client activity and share repurchases.
Investors should listen for:
Capital return remains a material EPS driver because BAC has steadily reduced its share count. But at a higher stock price, investors may place more emphasis on tangible book value growth and underlying returns than on the absolute dollar amount of repurchases.
BAC closed July 13 at $59.52, up approximately 6% from the beginning of 2026 and roughly 10% since its first-quarter report. The shares also recently reached a record high.
The setup is therefore positive but demanding:
A constructive report would probably include most of the following:
The shares could weaken even on an EPS beat if:
BAC should report a strong second quarter, with unusually broad support from net interest income, trading, investment banking and wealth management. Credit is unlikely to be the central problem, and management has set expectations for excellent operating leverage.
The risk is that the good quarter is already largely known. The most important information will be the forward view: whether BAC can sustain roughly 9% NII growth, preserve deposit-cost discipline, maintain strong capital-markets activity and convert revenue growth into a durable mid-teens-or-better ROTCE.
The cleanest bullish signal would be an NII guidance increase accompanied by more than 400 basis points of operating leverage and stable credit. Conversely, an in-line quarter with unchanged guidance may feel underwhelming after the stock's recent run, even if the reported EPS figure looks strong in isolation.