BLK Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BLK Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$13.20 vs. cons $12.65 MEDIUM
BLK Report Revenue BEAT pred ~$6.90B vs. cons $6.74B MEDIUM
BLK Report Organic base fee growth (annualized) BEAT pred ~7% vs. cons ~5.5% MEDIUM
BLK Guide Adjusted operating margin (FY2026) BETTER guide ~45% vs. cons ~44.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
BLK Guide AUM (quarter-end) BETTER guide/actual ~$14.7T vs. cons ~$14.3T (Q2'26) MEDIUM
BLK Guide Quarterly buyback pace UNCHANGED guide ~$450M/qtr vs. cons ~$450M (2H'26) MEDIUM
BLK Guide Effective tax rate (2H'26) UNCHANGED guide ~25% vs. cons ~25% (2H'26) MEDIUM
BLK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
BLK Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q2's ~14% equity rally (SPY 655→752) lifts average and exit AUM to a record, so a market-driven revenue/EPS beat plus sustained ~6-7% organic base fee growth raises the forward base-fee base — the out-period math works in BLK's favor (higher AUM entering Q3), so estimates should be revised up rather than cut. Positive DOL/private-markets and margin commentary reinforce; only the lagging YTD stock and premium multiple cap the magnitude, keeping follow-through modest rather than explosive (beta ~1.14). LOW