{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$13.20 vs. cons $12.65",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.90B vs. cons $6.74B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic base fee growth (annualized)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~7% vs. cons ~5.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin (FY2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~45% vs. cons ~44.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "AUM (quarter-end)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide/actual ~$14.7T vs. cons ~$14.3T (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Quarterly buyback pace",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$450M/qtr vs. cons ~$450M (2H'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective tax rate (2H'26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~25% vs. cons ~25% (2H'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2's ~14% equity rally (SPY 655\u2192752) lifts average and exit AUM to a record, so a market-driven revenue/EPS beat plus sustained ~6-7% organic base fee growth raises the forward base-fee base \u2014 the out-period math works in BLK's favor (higher AUM entering Q3), so estimates should be revised up rather than cut. Positive DOL/private-markets and margin commentary reinforce; only the lagging YTD stock and premium multiple cap the magnitude, keeping follow-through modest rather than explosive (beta ~1.14).",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}