BLK Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BLK Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$12.80 vs. cons $12.60 MEDIUM
BLK Report Total revenue BEAT pred ~$6.85B vs. cons $6.75B MEDIUM
BLK Report Total net inflows (organic growth) MISS pred ~$95B vs. cons $115B MEDIUM
BLK Guide FY2026 effective tax rate UNCHANGED guide ~25% vs. cons 25% (FY2026) HIGH
BLK Guide Quarterly buyback pace UNCHANGED guide ~$450M/qtr vs. cons $450M/qtr (Q3 2026 and beyond) HIGH
BLK Guide Adjusted/fee-related operating margin trajectory UNCHANGED guide ~45-46% vs. cons 45.5% (Q3 2026), with longer-term aspiration toward 47% MEDIUM
BLK Guide HLEND (HPS Corporate Lending Fund) quarterly redemption requests LOWER guide/trend ~15% requested vs. prior 13.3% (Q2 2026), worse than the stabilization the Street had hoped for LOW
BLK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.2% MEDIUM
BLK Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.3% (FADE) Headline EPS/revenue likely beat on market-driven AUM tailwinds, but net flows likely undershoot the record Q1 pace as HLEND redemption requests (13.3%->higher) and TCPC/valuation-probe headlines dominate Q&A; any initial pop from the beat should fade over the week as analysts trim H2 organic-growth and margin estimates on continued wealth-channel private-credit gating, echoing the pre-print MS target cut, rather than follow-through buying. LOW