Report date: Wednesday, July 15, 2026, before market open (call at 8:00am ET) Fiscal period: Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026)
BlackRock opened 2026 with one of its best quarters ever. In Q1, the firm reported $130 billion of total net inflows, $6.7 billion of revenue (+27% y/y), adjusted EPS of $12.53 (+11% y/y), and adjusted operating margin of 44.5%, up 130bps y/y — its seventh consecutive quarter of organic base-fee growth at or above 5% (8% in Q1, 10% over the trailing twelve months). AUM ended the quarter at $13.9 trillion, up 20% y/y, helped by the HPS and Preqin acquisitions, record iShares inflows ($132B), and $9B of private-markets inflows led by private credit and infrastructure. Management reiterated its commitment to at least $450 million/quarter of buybacks and guided to a ~25% effective tax rate for the balance of 2026.
CFO Martin Small also flagged a self-reinforcing margin story: fee-related earnings margin was 45.6% in Q1, and management believes the combined franchise can push back toward the 47% margins BlackRock ran at in 2021 — this time with a much larger, higher-margin private-markets engine (GIP and HPS both joined north of 50% margins).
Consensus has BlackRock reporting adjusted EPS around $12.55–$12.65 (up roughly 5% y/y from $12.05 a year ago) on revenue of roughly $6.7–$6.8 billion (up ~24% y/y), with estimates having drifted modestly higher over the past 30–60 days. Investors will be watching AUM, net inflows into iShares and active strategies, fee revenue, and the trajectory of the technology and private-markets segments.
Morgan Stanley, which frames BlackRock as "best-positioned within the asset management barbell given its leading iShares ETF platform, multi-asset and alternatives businesses, combined with a growing technology/Aladdin offering" projecting an ~18% EPS CAGR (2025-28e), trimmed its price target from $1,430 to $1,383 on July 14 while maintaining an Overweight rating — a signal that even bulls are tempering near-term expectations. The stock carries a Buy-leaning consensus with a roughly $1,270–$1,280 average price target.
1. Can organic growth stay broad-based? Q1's flows were led by a record iShares quarter, active equity, and private markets. With the S&P roughly 18% above its late-March lows, average AUM should be a strong tailwind for base fees in Q2, and BlackRock just launched a low-cost iShares Nasdaq-100 ETF to compete with QQQ, joining State Street in challenging Invesco's dominant franchise. Watch for confirmation that ETF share gains, active ETF momentum, and international/precision exposures (a key driver of the higher Q1 fee rate) continued into Q2.
2. The private-credit stress test — the single biggest overhang into this print. This is likely to be the most contentious topic on the call. BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND, ~$25-26B) capped investor redemptions at 5% for a second straight quarter after clients requested to pull 13.3% of assets in Q2, up from 9.3% in Q1. Separately, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp (TCPC) has marked down its NAV twice this year — roughly 19% in January and 5% in May — and federal prosecutors in Manhattan have reportedly questioned BlackRock executives as part of a probe into the fund's loan valuation practices, with CEO Phil Tseng preparing to exit the fund amid the turmoil. This comes against a backdrop of a broader private-credit "gating" wave across the industry (Blackstone, Ares, Morgan Stanley, Blue Owl all faced similar redemption pressure this year) tied to high-profile credit blowups like First Brands and Tricolor. Expect analysts to press management hard on evergreen-fund liquidity, valuation marks, HPS integration/reputational risk, and whether institutional demand (which management says remains "intact") can offset retail/wealth-channel nervousness.
3. Fee rate and margin trajectory. Q1's effective fee rate rose 0.2bps sequentially on international equity strength and mix shift toward higher-fee structural growers (private markets, active ETFs, Aperio, systematic equities). Management said the base-fee run-rate had already recovered from a dip after the April market weakness. Investors will want to see whether that mix benefit persisted through Q2 and whether adjusted margin holds near or above the 45%+ target given elevated compensation tied to performance fees.
4. Technology/Aladdin momentum. ACV grew 14% y/y in Q1 (management's long-term target is low-to-mid teens), boosted by the Preqin integration. With private-credit scrutiny rising industry-wide, Aladdin's pitch as the "language of private credit" for risk transparency becomes more relevant — watch for updated ACV growth and color on private-markets data/analytics demand.
5. Capital return and strategic positioning. Buybacks of at least $450M/quarter and the ~10% dividend increase announced in Q1 should continue. Also watch for updates on the Department of Labor's proposed rule enabling private assets in 401(k) target-date funds (a potential multi-year tailwind for BlackRock's $600B+ LifePath franchise) and any commentary on BlackRock's Investment Institute recently turning more cautious on emerging markets (moved to neutral from overweight) while upgrading eurozone government bonds to overweight — a sign of how the firm's own house views are shifting heading into the back half of 2026.
BLK shares have had a volatile 2026: after peaking near $1,163 in mid-January, the stock fell to roughly $920 by mid-March amid a broad market selloff, rallied back above $1,100 in May, then slid again into the $950–1,000 range through June — a period that coincided with escalating private-credit headlines — before stabilizing around $1,025–1,036 heading into the print. Notably, this round-trip happened even as the S&P 500 staged a strong recovery (roughly +18% off its late-March low through June), suggesting private-credit and HPS-related concerns, not market beta, have been the swing factor weighing on the multiple. This sets up an earnings reaction that could hinge less on the headline EPS beat/miss (BlackRock has topped estimates in each of the last several quarters) and more on management's tone regarding private-credit fund health, HLEND/TCPC developments, and whether the "whole portfolio"/scale narrative can keep outweighing credit-quality concerns in investors' minds.
Going into Wednesday's print, the fundamental growth story at BlackRock — iShares scale, technology/Aladdin recurring revenue, and a much larger private-markets franchise post-HPS/GIP/Preqin — remains intact and consensus expects continued double-digit revenue growth and mid-single-digit EPS growth. The key swing factor is sentiment around private credit: back-to-back quarters of redemption gating at HLEND, NAV markdowns and a valuation probe at TCP Capital, and a CEO departure are testing the credibility of BlackRock's aggressive private-markets push just as the firm leans on that business to defend a 45%+ margin target and drive future organic growth. Expect the stock's reaction to be driven as much by management's answers on private-credit liquidity and asset quality as by the reported numbers themselves.