Report: Wednesday, July 15, 2026, before the market opens
Conference call: 7:30 a.m. ET (ir.blackrock.com)
BlackRock enters the report with a favorable public-markets backdrop, strong industry ETF flows and substantial year-over-year revenue contribution from HPS. The key question is not whether assets under management reached another record; it is whether high-fee organic growth, private-markets momentum and operating leverage kept pace with the market-driven increase in AUM.
Published estimates vary modestly by provider:
| Metric | Q2 2026 consensus range | Q2 2025 actual | Implied YoY growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $12.55–$12.68 | $12.05 | Approximately 4%–5% |
| Revenue | $6.68B–$6.71B | $5.42B | Approximately 23%–24% |
Consensus therefore anticipates revenue roughly flat with Q1's $6.70 billion, while adjusted EPS rises only slightly from Q1's $12.53. The relatively modest EPS growth reflects the larger post-HPS diluted share count, a likely normalization in the tax rate and sensitivity to performance fees and nonoperating income. (tipranks.com)
BlackRock finished Q1 with $13.895 trillion of AUM, including $7.66 trillion in equity assets. Q1 ending AUM was below average AUM because markets weakened late in the quarter. That created a favorable starting point for Q2, during which U.S. and international equities recovered strongly while bonds were approximately flat. (s24.q4cdn.com)
That combination makes AUM near or potentially above $15 trillion plausible, although this is an inference rather than a published estimate. A new record alone should not be enough to impress investors because much of the increase will be attributable to market appreciation.
More important questions include:
BlackRock generated a record $132 billion of iShares net inflows in Q1, including $88 billion in equity ETFs and $45 billion in fixed-income ETFs. That drove 8% annualized organic base-fee growth for the company. (s24.q4cdn.com)
The Q2 industry backdrop remained favorable. U.S.-listed ETFs attracted $210 billion in June alone, and iShares led brands with approximately $70.7 billion of June inflows and $300.8 billion year-to-date. Large BlackRock winners included IVV, SGOV, SOXX and the active IALT ETF. (etf.com)
There were, however, meaningful offsets:
Investor takeaway: total ETF flows are likely healthy, but net new base fees and the flow-weighted fee rate are more important than the headline dollar figure.
BlackRock's private-markets business ended Q1 with $320 billion of AUM and generated $9.1 billion of quarterly net inflows, led by $6.6 billion in private credit. HPS also contributed approximately $230 million of quarterly base fees and $121 million of Q1 performance fees. (s24.q4cdn.com)
But Q2 occurred against a much more challenging private-credit narrative. HPS Corporate Lending Fund received Q1 redemption requests equal to 9.3% of shares and limited repurchases to 5%. Other BlackRock-affiliated credit vehicles also reported markdown pressure, while the wider industry experienced elevated redemption demand. (bloomberg.com)
Investors should listen for:
A result showing continued positive private-markets flows, stable credit quality and strong institutional fundraising would materially reduce the market's concern that BlackRock bought HPS near a cyclical peak.
Q1 adjusted operating margin was 44.5%, up 130 basis points year over year, while adjusted operating income rose 31%. BlackRock's longer-term ambition is an adjusted margin of at least 45%. (s24.q4cdn.com)
Q2 should benefit from:
Offsets include higher incentive compensation, distribution costs, direct fund expenses and ongoing spending to integrate and expand HPS, GIP, Preqin and Aladdin.
A clean adjusted margin at or above 45% would be encouraging. A margin below roughly 44%, despite the equity-market rebound, would raise questions about acquisition costs and BlackRock's ability to convert its expanded platform into EPS growth.
Q1 technology-services and subscription revenue increased 22% to $530 million, including approximately $65 million from Preqin. Technology annual contract value grew 14%. (s24.q4cdn.com)
The most important indicators are:
Technology is strategically important because it provides recurring revenue that is less directly tied to market levels than asset-management fees. A meaningful ACV deceleration would weaken part of the argument for BlackRock's premium valuation.
Q1 adjusted EPS benefited from discrete tax items related to stock-based compensation. Q2 will likely carry a more normal tax rate, while gains and losses on seed investments and minority stakes can make nonoperating income difficult to forecast. Investors should therefore distinguish between an operating beat and an EPS beat driven by below-the-line items. (s24.q4cdn.com)
BlackRock registered up to 12.0 million common shares that may be issued upon redemption of HPS-related SubCo units. This may create a technical share-supply overhang, but it should not be confused with a new surprise in adjusted EPS dilution: BlackRock's adjusted EPS presentation already assumes outstanding SubCo units are exchanged one-for-one into common stock. (sec.gov)
The near-term setup is constructive: strong equity markets and robust ETF industry flows should support record AUM, higher base fees and solid revenue growth. The bar, however, is higher than simply reporting an AUM record.
The most important signal will be whether BlackRock can sustain high-single-digit organic base-fee growth while expanding margins and navigating private-credit stress. If it does, the quarter will reinforce the thesis that the combination of iShares, active strategies, private markets and Aladdin is producing structurally higher growth. If the results rely primarily on market beta while fee rates, private-credit flows or margins soften, the headline numbers may look better than the underlying quarter.