{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Organic Base Fee Growth (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~1.55% qtrly vs. cons ~1.36% qtrly (VA, Jul 14 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Net Flows (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$178B vs. cons $189.7B (VA, Jul 14 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS - Operating (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$13.15 vs. cons $12.69 (VA, Jul 14 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Organic BFG Target (FY2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide 6-7% reaffirm vs. cons ~5.1% annualized (VA, Jul 14 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating Margin (FY2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide >=45% reaffirm vs. cons implied ~45.1% (VA, Jul 14 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Private Markets Tone (FY2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "positive pipeline update; no formal raise vs. no prior formal guide",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 4.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE - flows miss pulls near-term estimates slightly lower; initial gap partially gives back over days 2-5 as sell-side trims Q3 flows models",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}