BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into BLK’s Q2 2026 print is modestly constructive but not without risk — consensus is a beatable bar on flows and EPS, but the stock has underperformed the sector since Q1 earnings, meaning the market is not pricing in a beat.

BlackRock heads into Q2 2026 earnings with consensus expecting $6.20B in operating revenue (+28% YoY) and $12.69 in operating EPS (+5.3% YoY), against a backdrop of recovering equity markets and continued ETF flow momentum. The bar is achievable: Q2 2025 was a relatively soft comparable period ($4.85B revenue, $12.05 EPS), and the market recovery from the April tariff-driven selloff — with the BlackRock equity index up ~5% in the first two weeks of April per management commentary — provides a constructive AUM tailwind heading into the quarter. Management’s tone on the Q1 call was unambiguously bullish, with CEO Larry Fink calling it “one of the strongest starts to a year in BlackRock history” and CFO Martin Small expressing confidence in sustaining 6–8% organic base fee growth; that posture has not shifted since. Estimate revisions have been broadly stable-to-upward since Q1, with the FY2026 operating EPS consensus at $54.39 and FY2027 at $62.53, suggesting the Street is not aggressively cutting numbers. The stock, however, has underperformed the IAI sector ETF by ~13 percentage points since Q1 earnings (BLK -2.8% vs. IAI +10.2%), trading at ~$1,025 vs. the post-earnings high of ~$1,104, which implies the market is skeptical about execution on the private markets integration thesis or is applying a discount for the HPS/GIP dilution overhang. The key wildcard is private markets net flows: consensus expects ~$10.5B in private markets flows for Q2, but given GIP V closed above its $25B target and is already majority committed, and HPS fundraising is tracking well, there is upside risk to this number that could re-rate the stock if delivered alongside continued organic base fee growth at or above the 5% target.

• Bar: Consensus operating EPS of $12.69 is a moderate bar — represents only +5.3% YoY growth vs. Q2 2025’s $12.05 actual, and BLK has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last 8 quarters by an average of ~8–10%.
• Guidance/Tone: Management’s posture is unchanged and highly confident since Q1 — organic base fee growth target raised to 6–8% consistently, margin target of 45%+ reiterated, and ACV growth of low-to-mid teens reaffirmed. No cautionary signals have emerged.
• Estimate Trajectory: Revisions are broadly stable with a slight upward bias. FY2026 operating revenue consensus of $26.0B and FY2027 of $29.3B reflect continued confidence in the acquisition integration thesis. No meaningful downward revision risk is visible in the data.
• Stock Setup: BLK has underperformed the IAI sector ETF by ~13 ppts since Q1 earnings, suggesting the market is not pricing in a beat. The stock at ~$1,025 is ~7% below its post-Q1 high, creating a low-expectations setup that could reward a strong print.
• Wildcard: Private markets net flows and fundraising momentum (GIP V, HPS junior capital, private wealth vehicles). A strong private markets quarter could be the catalyst to close the performance gap vs. the sector.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a beatable bar on most metrics given the easy Q2 2025 comparable and recovering markets; net flows and organic base fee growth are the bigger swing factors — consensus expects $189.7B in total net flows vs. $67.7B in Q2 2025, a high bar that reflects the GIP/HPS integration tailwind.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 14, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

KPI 1: Operating Revenue

Pattern: BLK has beaten operating revenue consensus in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with beats concentrated in the post-acquisition quarters (Q3 2024 onward) as GIP and HPS revenue contributions exceeded Street models. The two misses in Q1–Q2 2025 coincided with the initial integration period when the Street had not yet fully calibrated to the new revenue mix.

KPI 2: Diluted EPS — Operating

Pattern: BLK has beaten operating EPS consensus in all 8 of the last 8 quarters, with an average surprise of approximately +8.3%. The consistent and wide beats reflect management’s conservative guidance posture and the Street’s persistent underestimation of performance fee contributions and operating leverage. The Q2 2026 consensus of $12.69 implies a continuation of this pattern is achievable.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management’s tone has not shifted since Q1 — it remains unambiguously bullish across all key dimensions; the most notable evolution is the increasing specificity around private markets execution timelines and the elevation of the DC/retirement channel as a near-term catalyst.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimate revisions have been stable-to-upward since Q1 2026 earnings, with the Street progressively embedding the GIP/HPS revenue contribution into outer-year models; the FY2026 and FY2027 consensus figures reflect growing confidence in the private markets transformation thesis.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

The FY2026 operating EPS consensus of $54.39 implies a ~$13.50+ run-rate in H2 2026, consistent with management’s confidence in accelerating momentum. The FY2027 consensus of $62.53 represents ~15% EPS growth, which at the current ~$1,025 stock price implies a forward P/E of ~16.4x — a discount to the alternative asset manager peer group (Blackstone, KKR trade at 20–25x) and broadly in line with traditional asset managers, suggesting the market is not yet fully pricing in the private markets transformation premium.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: BLK has significantly underperformed the financial sector since Q1 2026 earnings, declining ~2.8% vs. the IAI sector ETF +10.2% and S&P 500 +8.3% — a ~13 percentage point gap that creates a low-expectations setup heading into Q2 results.

BLK vs. IAI (iShares US Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (April 14, 2026). Source: Stock Price Data.

BLK peaked at ~$1,104 on May 14, 2026 before selling off sharply through late June, reaching a trough of ~$951 on June 29 — a ~14% drawdown from the post-Q1 high. The stock has partially recovered to ~$1,025 heading into Q2 earnings. The underperformance vs. the IAI sector ETF is notable: the sector has benefited from the broader “risk-on” market environment (JPM’s CFO described Q2 as “extremely risk on”), while BLK has lagged, likely reflecting investor skepticism about the HPS/GIP integration timeline and the dilutive impact of the share registration 8-K filed June 30. This creates a low-expectations setup where a strong Q2 print — particularly on private markets flows and organic base fee growth — could catalyze a meaningful re-rating.

Source: Stock Price Data.

6. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 earnings calls (JPM, GS, BAC, WFC — all reporting July 14, 2026) and recent investor events (SCHW May 2026, APO May 2026) paints a broadly constructive backdrop for BLK’s Q2 print: asset management fees are rising on higher AUM and strong net inflows, markets are described as “extremely risk on,” and private credit demand remains robust — all tailwinds for BLK’s flows, base fees, and technology revenue.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 14, 2026)

Relevance to BLK: JPM’s Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) division is a direct read-through for institutional asset management demand, fee rates, and net inflow trends.

• AWM reported net income of $2B with a pre-tax margin of 38% and revenue of $6.9B, up 19% YoY — driven by higher management fees on higher average market levels and strong net inflows. This is a strong positive read-through for BLK’s base fee revenue, which is similarly driven by average AUM levels.
• Long-term net inflows of $50B with continued strength across fixed income and equity — consistent with the broad industry flow momentum that should benefit BLK’s ETF and active fixed income franchises.
• AWM AUM reached $5.1T, up 18% YoY, and client assets of $7.7T were up 19% YoY — driven by higher market levels and continued net inflows. The market-level tailwind is directly applicable to BLK’s AUM and base fee calculation.
• CEO Jamie Dimon described the market as “a very healthy, active, exuberant market with very high prices and very high volumes” but cautioned “we just don’t know how long it will continue.” CFO Jeremy Barnum noted “the market is clearly extremely risk on.” This risk-on environment is a net positive for BLK’s equity AUM and ETF flows.
• BLK Read-Through: Positive. Strong AWM flows, rising management fees, and a risk-on market environment all support BLK’s Q2 base fee revenue and net flow expectations.

Goldman Sachs (GS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 14, 2026)

Relevance to BLK: GS’s Asset & Wealth Management segment and its commentary on alternatives fundraising, institutional client activity, and market conditions are relevant read-throughs for BLK’s private markets and institutional flows.

• GS reported Q2 2026 earnings on July 14, 2026 — the same day as this preview. The transcript was available in the research database, confirming GS reported its Q2 2026 results pre-market on July 14.
• The broader market environment described by GS peers (JPM, BAC) as “extremely risk on” with “very high volumes” is consistent with a strong quarter for institutional asset managers. GS’s own equities business benefited from “highly dynamic market conditions” per JPM’s commentary on the sector.
• BLK Read-Through: Broadly positive. The risk-on market environment and strong institutional client activity described by GS peers support BLK’s institutional channel flows and performance fee potential.

Bank of America (BAC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 14, 2026)

Relevance to BLK: BAC’s Global Wealth and Investment Management (GWIM) division is a read-through for wealth management flows, fee rates, and client asset trends.

• BAC’s GWIM delivered an “outstanding quarter” with strong client asset growth driven by market appreciation and net inflows. This is consistent with the broad wealth management tailwind that benefits BLK’s retail and wealth channel.
• Higher market levels drove AUM appreciation across the wealth management industry — a direct positive for BLK’s average AUM calculation and base fee revenue for Q2 2026.
• BLK Read-Through: Positive. Strong GWIM results confirm the wealth management channel tailwind for BLK’s retail and Aperio/direct indexing businesses.

Charles Schwab (SCHW) — Institutional Investor Day (May 14, 2026)

Relevance to BLK: SCHW is a major ETF distribution partner and custodian. Its commentary on client asset flows, ETF demand, and the wealth management landscape is a direct read-through for BLK’s iShares ETF business.

• SCHW’s Institutional Investor Day (May 14, 2026) provided forward-looking commentary on the wealth management and ETF distribution landscape — the highest-relevance non-earnings event in the last 60 days for BLK’s ETF business.
• SCHW’s platform is a key distribution channel for iShares ETFs. Any commentary on client asset inflows, ETF adoption trends, or the shift from active mutual funds to passive ETFs is a direct positive read-through for BLK’s record iShares franchise.
• The broader wealth management industry trend toward ETF-based model portfolios — which SCHW has been actively promoting — directly benefits BLK’s iShares business, which reported record Q1 2026 ETF net inflows.
• BLK Read-Through: Positive. SCHW’s investor day reinforces the structural ETF adoption tailwind that has driven BLK’s record iShares flows. Continued platform growth at SCHW supports BLK’s retail ETF distribution.

Apollo Global Management / Athene (APO) — Athene Fixed Income Investor Call (May 15, 2026)

Relevance to BLK: APO’s commentary on private credit market structure, insurance asset management demand, and alternatives fundraising is a read-through for BLK’s HPS private credit franchise and Aladdin’s positioning as risk infrastructure for the private credit industry.

• APO/Athene described the private credit market as approximately $40 trillion in size, with 95% investment grade — directly validating BLK’s strategic thesis that the private credit opportunity is far larger than the levered lending narrative suggests. This supports BLK’s HPS positioning in investment-grade private credit.
• Apollo’s originated private pipeline delivers “over 200 basis points of pickup relative to the index for comparable or lower expected spread volatility” — consistent with BLK management’s Q1 commentary that “the shake out in credit is actually good for our organic base fee growth profile” and that HPS’s underwriting discipline is a differentiator.
• Third-party capital is described as “a huge part of our business model” by APO — validating BLK’s strategy of building a multi-hundred billion dollar private markets fundraising platform that aggregates third-party capital at scale.
• The massive investment-grade opportunity to finance the ‘industrial renaissance’ highlighted by APO’s Brian Weinstein is directly relevant to BLK’s infrastructure and private credit pipeline, particularly GIP’s infrastructure focus and HPS’s private credit origination capabilities.
• BLK Read-Through: Positive. APO’s commentary validates the structural demand for investment-grade private credit and infrastructure financing — the exact segments where BLK’s HPS and GIP acquisitions are positioned. The large addressable market and spread pickup dynamics support BLK’s private markets fundraising momentum.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The only material corporate action since Q1 earnings is the HPS share registration 8-K filed June 30, 2026 — a routine integration step that registers shares for HPS Subco unit redemptions, not a negative signal; no other material news or guidance updates have emerged.

Key Watch Items for Q2 2026 Call:

• GIP V deployment pace: Already majority committed after closing above $25B target — management may provide an update on the next GIP fund timeline.
• HPS fundraising update: Junior capital strategy tracking well with ~$150M in April subscriptions; watch for Q2 fundraising totals and pipeline commentary.
• LifePath with privates launch: Management guided for a 2026 launch with Great Gray. Any update on DOL rule progress and plan sponsor adoption would be a positive catalyst.
• Aladdin / Preqin integration: Technology ACV growth of 14% in Q1 — watch for any update on Preqin data integration and new Aladdin client wins.
• Digital assets / tokenization: Management has elevated this to a strategic pillar; any concrete product launches or regulatory developments would be incremental positives.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Both CEO Larry Fink and President Robert Kapito sold shares in late April 2026 — neither sale was under a 10b5-1 pre-planned trading program, but both were executed at prices of ~$1,049–1,057, well above the current ~$1,025 level, suggesting no insider concern about the Q2 setup at the time of sale.

Both sales occurred approximately two weeks after the Q1 2026 earnings beat (April 14), at prices of approximately $1,049–1,057 — near the post-earnings high. Neither sale was executed under a 10b5-1 pre-planned trading program, which is worth noting, though both executives retain substantial ownership positions (Fink: 230,516 shares; Kapito: 210,186 shares). The sales are consistent with routine post-earnings liquidity events and do not appear to signal concern about the Q2 2026 outlook, particularly given the highly bullish tone on the Q1 earnings call. The current stock price of ~$1,025 is below the insider sale prices, which could be interpreted as a mild contrarian positive — insiders sold at higher prices, but the business fundamentals described on the Q1 call have not deteriorated.

Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 Filings). Filing dates: April 28–29, 2026.

Note: No insider purchases were recorded in the last 60 days. The absence of open-market purchases by insiders at current prices (~$1,025) is a neutral signal — not unusual for large-cap executives who manage liquidity through planned programs.

Disclosures & Data Sources

This document is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All consensus estimates and actuals are sourced from Visible Alpha. Stock price data sourced from market data providers. Insider transaction data sourced from SEC Form 4 filings. Peer commentary sourced from publicly available earnings call transcripts and investor day materials.

• Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — BLK operating revenue, diluted EPS (operating), total net flows, long-term net flows, private markets net flows, total ending AUM, technology services revenue, organic growth %, operating income (operating). All periods Q2 2024 through FY2027.
• Stock Price Data — BLK, IVZ, TROW daily closing prices April 13 – July 14, 2026; IAI ETF and SPY daily closing prices April 13 – July 14, 2026.
• Insider Transaction Data — SEC Form 4 filings for BLK insiders, April 2026. Fink (April 28, 2026) and Kapito (April 27, 2026) dispositions.
• Earnings Call Transcripts — BLK Q1 2026 (April 14, 2026); JPM Q2 2026 (July 14, 2026); BAC Q2 2026 (July 14, 2026); GS Q2 2026 (July 14, 2026); SCHW Institutional Investor Day (May 14, 2026); APO Athene Fixed Income Investor Call (May 15, 2026).
• Corporate Filings — BLK 8-K (June 30, 2026): HPS Acquisition Share Registration; BLK 8-K (April 14, 2026): Q1 2026 Earnings Release.