| C |
Report |
EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.85 vs. cons $2.72 |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Report |
Total revenue (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$23.9B vs. cons $23.5B |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Report |
Markets trading revenue (FICC+Equities) |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.55B vs. cons $6.28B |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
FY2026 NII ex-Markets growth (guide raise on AmEx/AA-Barclays card onboarding + deposit growth) |
BETTER |
guide ~6-7% vs. cons ~5-6% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
FY2026 RoTCE vs new Investor-Day target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~11-13% vs. cons ~11.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
FY2026 expenses / efficiency ratio |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~60% efficiency (~$53.4B) vs. cons ~60% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
Buyback pace under $30B authorization |
BETTER |
guide ~$4-5B/qtr vs. cons ~$3.5-4B (Q2/H2 2026) |
LOW |
| C |
Guide |
US card NCL rate |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~4-4.5% vs. cons ~4.3% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
Consent-order / transformation resolution signal |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~90% programs at target vs. cons no resolution baked (2026-27) |
LOW |
| C |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.4% (FADE) |
Beat on EPS/trading plus a plausible NII guide bump drives a modest positive day-1 residual, but with the stock at multi-decade highs (beta ~1.4, +18% YTD, +60% y/y) expectations are elevated. The out-period math works against follow-through: Q2 is a seasonal step-down from Q1's decade-best Markets print, management stays cautious on H2 banking deferrals (Middle East/rate risk), and no clean consent-order resolution — so out-quarter estimates aren't revised meaningfully higher. Initial pop gives back most of its idiosyncratic gain into day 5 (sell-the-news), leaving a small positive residual. |
LOW |