{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.85 vs. cons $2.72",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$23.9B vs. cons $23.5B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Markets trading revenue (FICC+Equities)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.55B vs. cons $6.28B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 NII ex-Markets growth (guide raise on AmEx/AA-Barclays card onboarding + deposit growth)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~6-7% vs. cons ~5-6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 RoTCE vs new Investor-Day target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~11-13% vs. cons ~11.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 expenses / efficiency ratio",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~60% efficiency (~$53.4B) vs. cons ~60% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback pace under $30B authorization",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4-5B/qtr vs. cons ~$3.5-4B (Q2/H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "US card NCL rate",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~4-4.5% vs. cons ~4.3% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consent-order / transformation resolution signal",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~90% programs at target vs. cons no resolution baked (2026-27)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Beat on EPS/trading plus a plausible NII guide bump drives a modest positive day-1 residual, but with the stock at multi-decade highs (beta ~1.4, +18% YTD, +60% y/y) expectations are elevated. The out-period math works against follow-through: Q2 is a seasonal step-down from Q1's decade-best Markets print, management stays cautious on H2 banking deferrals (Middle East/rate risk), and no clean consent-order resolution \u2014 so out-quarter estimates aren't revised meaningfully higher. Initial pop gives back most of its idiosyncratic gain into day 5 (sell-the-news), leaving a small positive residual.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}