| C |
Report |
EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.85 vs. cons $2.72 |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Report |
Markets Trading Revenue (Equities+FICC combined) |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.55B vs. cons $6.28B |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Report |
Net Interest Income (NII) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$15.95B vs. cons $15.93B |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
FY2026 NII ex-Markets growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~5-6% vs. cons 5-6% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
FY2026 Efficiency Ratio |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~60% vs. cons ~60% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
FY2026 U.S. Card NCL rate |
BETTER |
guide ~4.1-4.3% vs. cons 4.3% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| C |
Guide |
CET1 ratio target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~12.6% vs. cons 12.6% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Guide |
Path to 11-13% RoTCE (2027 target commentary) |
UNKNOWN |
guide reaffirm 2026 RoTCE ~10.5-11% vs. cons 10.5% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| C |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| C |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.4% (FADE) |
A likely EPS/Markets beat is driven largely by volatile trading revenue that won't repeat, while NII and full-year guidance (ex-Markets NII growth, efficiency ratio, CET1) are left unchanged rather than raised despite the run-rate beat — implying analysts will need to trim out-quarter trading assumptions back toward normalized levels and keep FY26/27 NII and RoTCE build largely intact. With so much good news already priced in after the >60% 12-month rally and Investor Day targets, the initial pop from a headline beat is likely to fade over the following days as investors focus on the unchanged medium-term ramp rather than a one-quarter trading windfall, echoing prior 'beat-but-fade' reactions after blowout Markets quarters. |
LOW |