| ELV |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$6.15 vs. cons ~$6.16 |
MEDIUM |
| ELV |
Report |
Consolidated Benefit Expense Ratio (BER/MLR) |
MISS |
pred ~87.6% vs. cons ~87.1% (higher/worse) |
MEDIUM |
| ELV |
Report |
Total Revenue (Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~$49.3B vs. cons ~$48.6B |
LOW |
| ELV |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted EPS guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$26.75 (at least) vs. cons ~$26.86 (FY2026) — reaffirm, no raise |
MEDIUM |
| ELV |
Guide |
FY26 Medicaid operating margin |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~-1.75% vs. cons ~-1.5% (FY2026 trough) |
MEDIUM |
| ELV |
Guide |
CMS risk-adjustment accrual / July 31 resolution |
UNKNOWN |
accrual ~$935M vs. prior $935M (FY2026); resolution path key overhang |
MEDIUM |
| ELV |
Guide |
2027 adjusted EPS growth framework |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~≥12% off $25.75 base vs. cons ~10-12% (FY2027) |
LOW |
| ELV |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
LOW |
| ELV |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Stock is +50% off March lows and +14.5% vs SPY +4.3% since May, so it enters priced for a clean recovery with little margin for error. Q2 EPS is pre-set at ~23% of the $26.75 FY, so the print de-emphasizes the beat; the swing factors are BER/Medicaid trend and the unresolved $935M CMS matter two weeks before the July 31 deadline. A likely reaffirm-not-raise plus building 2H ACA-bronze morbidity and Medicaid rate-to-trend gap drive implicit out-period estimate cuts even on an in-line quarter, so an initial negative reaction follows through lower as sell-side trims 2H/2027 numbers. |
LOW |