{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.15 vs. cons ~$6.16",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated Benefit Expense Ratio (BER/MLR)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~87.6% vs. cons ~87.1% (higher/worse)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$49.3B vs. cons ~$48.6B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$26.75 (at least) vs. cons ~$26.86 (FY2026) \u2014 reaffirm, no raise",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Medicaid operating margin",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~-1.75% vs. cons ~-1.5% (FY2026 trough)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "CMS risk-adjustment accrual / July 31 resolution",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "accrual ~$935M vs. prior $935M (FY2026); resolution path key overhang",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2027 adjusted EPS growth framework",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~\u226512% off $25.75 base vs. cons ~10-12% (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock is +50% off March lows and +14.5% vs SPY +4.3% since May, so it enters priced for a clean recovery with little margin for error. Q2 EPS is pre-set at ~23% of the $26.75 FY, so the print de-emphasizes the beat; the swing factors are BER/Medicaid trend and the unresolved $935M CMS matter two weeks before the July 31 deadline. A likely reaffirm-not-raise plus building 2H ACA-bronze morbidity and Medicaid rate-to-trend gap drive implicit out-period estimate cuts even on an in-line quarter, so an initial negative reaction follows through lower as sell-side trims 2H/2027 numbers.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}