ELV Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ELV Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$6.32 vs. cons $6.18 MEDIUM
ELV Report Benefit Expense Ratio (MLR) BEAT pred ~89.1% vs. cons 89.4% MEDIUM
ELV Report Total Operating Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$48.7B vs. cons $48.65B MEDIUM
ELV Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$26.75 vs. cons $26.75 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ELV Guide FY2026 Medicaid operating margin UNCHANGED guide ~-1.75% vs. cons -1.75% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ELV Guide FY2026 Medicare Advantage operating margin UNCHANGED guide ~2.0% vs. cons 2.0% (FY2026) LOW
ELV Guide CMS risk-adjustment accrual adequacy commentary UNKNOWN guide ~$935M accrual reaffirmed vs. cons $935M prior accrual (ahead of Jul 31, 2026 deadline) LOW
ELV Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
ELV Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) Stock has rallied ~43% into the print, so even a modest EPS/MLR beat is largely priced in; reaffirming (rather than raising) full-year EPS guidance implicitly raises the H2 bar given Q1's one-time investment income tailwind, and the unresolved CMS risk-adjustment deadline (Jul 31) plus lingering ACA morbidity/mix uncertainty (per HCA's exchange-mix warning) give bears a reason to fade an initial pop; expect analysts to trim numbers on H2 conservatism even after a Q2 beat, producing fade rather than follow-through. MEDIUM