{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.32 vs. cons $6.18",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Benefit Expense Ratio (MLR)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~89.1% vs. cons 89.4%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Operating Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$48.7B vs. cons $48.65B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$26.75 vs. cons $26.75 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Medicaid operating margin",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~-1.75% vs. cons -1.75% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Medicare Advantage operating margin",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~2.0% vs. cons 2.0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "CMS risk-adjustment accrual adequacy commentary",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$935M accrual reaffirmed vs. cons $935M prior accrual (ahead of Jul 31, 2026 deadline)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock has rallied ~43% into the print, so even a modest EPS/MLR beat is largely priced in; reaffirming (rather than raising) full-year EPS guidance implicitly raises the H2 bar given Q1's one-time investment income tailwind, and the unresolved CMS risk-adjustment deadline (Jul 31) plus lingering ACA morbidity/mix uncertainty (per HCA's exchange-mix warning) give bears a reason to fade an initial pop; expect analysts to trim numbers on H2 conservatism even after a Q2 beat, producing fade rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}