| FAST |
Report |
Net sales / daily sales |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.36B (+13.5% YoY) vs. cons ~$2.34B |
MEDIUM |
| FAST |
Report |
Gross margin |
MISS |
pred ~44.5% vs. cons ~45.0% |
MEDIUM |
| FAST |
Report |
Diluted EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.33 vs. cons $0.33 |
MEDIUM |
| FAST |
Guide |
Gross-margin H2 recovery / price-cost neutrality (FY26 exit) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~45% FY26 exit vs. cons ~45% (H2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| FAST |
Guide |
2026 net capex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$310–330M vs. cons ~$320M (FY26) |
HIGH |
| FAST |
Guide |
Incremental / operating margin (high-20s incrementals; ~21% op margin) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~28% incrementals vs. cons ~27% (FY26); Q2 op margin ~20.7% vs. cons ~20.8% |
MEDIUM |
| FAST |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| FAST |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FADE) |
Revenue beat is well-telegraphed (14%+ monthly daily-sales pace) and largely priced into a full high-30s/40x multiple with a defensive 'Hold' Street. The move hinges on gross margin, which management pre-flagged as 'challenging'; a ~44.5% print (below ~45% cons, fastener-expansion tailwind rolling off, tariff price/cost still lagging) keeps near-term GM/EPS estimates from being revised up despite the top-line beat. Out-period math — H2 recovery narrative but no formal upgrade to margin path — pulls forward estimates flat-to-down, so an initial muted/negative reaction fades further over the week rather than following through. |
LOW |