{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales / daily sales",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.36B (+13.5% YoY) vs. cons ~$2.34B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gross margin",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~44.5% vs. cons ~45.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.33 vs. cons $0.33",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Gross-margin H2 recovery / price-cost neutrality (FY26 exit)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~45% FY26 exit vs. cons ~45% (H2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 net capex",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$310\u2013330M vs. cons ~$320M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Incremental / operating margin (high-20s incrementals; ~21% op margin)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~28% incrementals vs. cons ~27% (FY26); Q2 op margin ~20.7% vs. cons ~20.8%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Revenue beat is well-telegraphed (14%+ monthly daily-sales pace) and largely priced into a full high-30s/40x multiple with a defensive 'Hold' Street. The move hinges on gross margin, which management pre-flagged as 'challenging'; a ~44.5% print (below ~45% cons, fastener-expansion tailwind rolling off, tariff price/cost still lagging) keeps near-term GM/EPS estimates from being revised up despite the top-line beat. Out-period math \u2014 H2 recovery narrative but no formal upgrade to margin path \u2014 pulls forward estimates flat-to-down, so an initial muted/negative reaction fades further over the week rather than following through.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}