I'll research FAST (Fastenal) before writing the preview. Let me pull recent filings, earnings history, and news.Let me retry the transcript/release search and gather more.I have transcripts. Let me read the most recent Q1 2026 call and the Q2 2025 call, plus get the earnings release and recent news.Let me retry reading the documents.Let me get the Q1 2026 earnings release numbers, recent stock price, and any recent news (monthly sales data).Let me check for recent monthly sales data and news going into the print.Let me get the Q2 2025 comp-base numbers and check for any recent Fastenal-specific news.Let me read the Q2 2025 earnings release for the comp-base numbers.Let me check for analyst consensus estimates and any recent monthly sales data via web search.Let me pull the April and June 2026 monthly sales figures to gauge Q2 momentum.Let me check for the June 2026 sales figure (released ~July 13) and recent analyst sentiment.I have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.

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Fastenal (FAST) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report: Before market open, Tuesday, July 14, 2026 (2026Q2 Earnings Call) · Last price: $47.07 (7/13/26)

The one-line setup

Fastenal goes into this print with the best top-line momentum it has shown since the post-COVID boom, but the debate is no longer growth — it's gross margin. The stock sold off ~7% after Q1 on a price/cost miss, has since round-tripped back to the mid-$40s, and sits at a premium multiple with a "Hold" Street and limited upside to price targets. Q2 is the quarter management itself flagged as "challenging" on margin before an expected second-half recovery, so the reaction will hinge on whether price finally caught up with cost.

Consensus & comparison

Metric	Q2'25 (comp)	Q1'26 (last qtr)	Q2'26 consensus
Net sales	$2,080.3M	$2,201.7M	~$2.34B (+12.6% YoY)
Daily sales	$32.5M	$34.9M (+12.4%)	~$36–37M
Gross margin	45.3%	44.6%	watch: ~44.5–45%
Operating margin	21.0%	20.3%	~20.5–21%
Diluted EPS	$0.29	$0.30	$0.33 (+~14%)

The Street is looking for revenue growth to roughly double the year-ago pace (12.6% vs. 8.6% in Q2'25) and EPS up ~14%.

1. Top line: momentum is accelerating, and the intra-quarter reads support upside

• Fastenal has now printed three straight quarters of double-digit daily sales growth, ending Q1'26 at +12.4%.
• The monthly sales releases point to acceleration into Q2: April daily sales grew 14.3% ($790.5M net sales — one of the strongest monthly rates of the run) and May grew 14.8% to ~$37.6M/day. These are running ahead of the ~12.6% total-revenue growth consensus, though the gap partly reflects one fewer selling day in the quarter.
• Growth is broad-based: management stressed it wasn't concentrated in any single customer type or end market. Heavy manufacturing (~44% of sales) has been growing mid-teens, and the notable turnaround is non-residential construction, which flipped from negative to +17% in Q1 — a signal that Fastenal's supply-chain model is gaining traction outside its manufacturing core.
• The key swing factor for the headline: June daily sales and the selling-day count, both of which land with the print. Jefferies noted only ~6% June daily growth was needed to clear an ~11.7% quarterly revenue bar, so a beat on revenue looks well-telegraphed.

2. Gross margin: the real event

This is what broke the Q1 stock reaction and what matters most Tuesday. - Q1 gross margin was 44.6%, down 50 bps YoY and ~40 bps below the company's own target, because tariff-driven costs moved through the P&L faster than pricing. Management realized ~3.5% price in Q1 — not enough to offset inflation. - Where they're getting squeezed is branded product (safety, cutting tools), not fasteners, because Fastenal's long fastener inventory cycle gives it visibility that branded goods don't. - Two things to watch: 1. Did the sequential margin bleed stop? CFO Max Tunnicliff said they'd "do everything in our power" to avoid repeating the Q1-to-Q2 sequential decline. Q1 is likely the trough, but management explicitly warned Q2 would still be challenging, with real recovery in H2 as pricing actions (staggered March–June effective dates) take hold and tariff-cost inflation plateaus around mid-year. 2. Fastener expansion benefit rolls off. The margin tailwind from that project anniversaries in early Q2, removing a partial offset. - Structural headwind persists: customer mix (growth skewed to large, lower-gross-margin accounts) — but management is comfortable because these accounts are accretive to operating margin via fixed-cost leverage.

3. Operating margin & SG&A: the offset

• SG&A leverage has been the star — 24.3% of sales in Q1 (down ~70 bps YoY) with ~60 bps of FTE-productivity leverage.
• Q2'26 laps the incentive-comp reload that ramped in Q2'25, so the bonus/commission headwind that has pressured SG&A comps finally anniversaries — a tailwind to leverage this quarter.
• The tension: Q2'25 was a tough operating-margin comp at 21.0% (elevated). Holding or expanding on that while gross margin is under pressure is the crux. Management reaffirmed high-20s incremental margins for the year.

4. Structural growth drivers (secondary, but the bull case)

• Contracts / key accounts: contract count +~8% YoY to ~3,600; ~75% of sales; on track for ~250 new national-account signings in 2026.
• $50K+ sites: up 16.3% YoY to ~2,900, now >50% of total sales — the core of the "land and expand" story.
• Digital: Digital Footprint 61.5% of sales; FMI ~45% of sales, ~110 device signings/day; on track to 28k–30k MEU signings for the year.
• International: Europe/Asia growing ~24% — small base, but the incremental growth engine.

5. Capital allocation

• 2026 net capex guided $310–330M (~3.5% of sales) — the high end of the historical range, funding a new Atlanta hub, picking capacity, FMI hardware and IT. Watch for any reaffirmation.
• Buybacks resumed (a small $20M in Q1) to offset dilution after years of dividend-only returns; ROIC hit ~31% on a TTM basis. Balance sheet is nearly debt-free ($125M).

6. Valuation & sentiment — why the bar is high

• The stock recovered from a ~$39 low (Nov 2025) but remains below its ~$50 August 2025 peak; it trades at a premium (high-30s/40x earnings) that leaves little room for a margin disappointment.
• Wall Street is cautious: a "Hold" consensus across ~20 analysts (roughly 6 Buy / 8 Hold / 6 Sell), a consensus price target around $48 (only low-single-digit upside), and at least one outright bear (Bernstein, Underperform). EPS estimates have crept up (Zacks $0.33 from $0.32).
• Translation: strong revenue is largely expected and priced in. The asymmetric risk is around gross margin and the H2 recovery narrative.

What to watch on the call

1. Gross margin trajectory — did price/cost stop deteriorating sequentially, and does management still expect H2 recovery/price-cost neutrality?
2. June daily sales + selling-day count — the swing factor for a revenue beat, and whether the 14%+ monthly pace held.
3. Pricing realization — progress past the ~3.5% Q1 level, and confirmation the 5–8% cumulative tariff-pricing peak/plateau thesis is intact.
4. Operating margin vs. the 21.0% comp — proof that SG&A leverage (bonus reload now lapped) offsets gross-margin pressure and that high-20s incrementals hold.
5. Construction and non-manufacturing durability — is the +17% construction inflection sustainable, or comp-aided?
6. Any tone shift on the macro/PMI (>50 for several months now) that would signal a genuine demand tailwind on top of share gains.

Bottom line: Expect a revenue beat and low-double-digit EPS growth to be the base case, but with the stock full and the Street defensive, the reaction likely turns on gross margin and the credibility of the second-half price/cost recovery rather than the (strong) top line.

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Preview based on Fastenal's Q1'26 and Q2'25 earnings releases and Q1'26 conference call, April–May 2026 monthly sales disclosures, consensus/analyst commentary, and price data through 7/13/26. Not investment advice.