{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.93 vs. cons $1.86",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$12.0B vs. cons $11.8B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total operating profit margin",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~22.2% vs. cons ~22%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.10\u20137.40 vs. cons ~$7.40 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 operating profit guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$9.85\u201310.25B vs. cons ~$10.2B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 free cash flow guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.0\u20138.4B vs. cons ~$8.35B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2H26 CES services growth / departures macro assumption",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~flat-to-low-single-digit departures vs. cons ~low-single-digit growth (2H26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 is pre-sold/de-risked so a headline beat (~$1.93 vs $1.86) is largely discounted at ~48x 2027 EPS after the ~$275\u2192$378 run. Holding FY guide while beating Q2 by another ~$300M implies an unspoken 2H cut, and management declines to raise (or trims the high-end lean) because the worsening U.S.\u2013Iran/oil shock \u2014 Brent ~$85, Goldman flagging >$110 in Q4 \u2014 directly contradicts the embedded 'oil declines by year-end, no recession, LSD departures' assumptions. Out-period math + macro caution pull estimates and departures/retirement risk lower even after the beat, so an initial 'sell-the-news' dip follows through as sell-side trims 2H/2027 numbers; only strong Farnborough/defense book-to-bill orders cushion it.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}