| GS |
Report |
EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$15.25 vs. cons $14.15 |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Report |
Equities trading revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.2B vs. cons $4.9B |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Report |
Investment banking fees |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.95B vs. cons $2.75B |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Guide |
FICC trading revenue (in-quarter, key swing) |
UNCHANGED |
pred ~$3.7B vs. cons $3.67B (2026Q2) |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Guide |
IB backlog / M&A + sponsor-monetization pipeline tone |
BETTER |
backlog near 4-yr high implies ~$2.9B fee run-rate vs. cons ~$2.8B (2026Q3) |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Guide |
FY tax rate guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~20% vs. cons ~20% (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| GS |
Guide |
Capital return / CET1 & buyback |
UNCHANGED |
CET1 ~12.6% vs. 12.5% prior; buyback ~$4.5B vs. $5.0B Q1 (2026Q2) |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| GS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.5% (FADE) |
GS likely beats comfortably on IB fees and equities financing with constructive pipeline tone, driving a modest day-1 pop (~+1.5% residual). But this is a super-crowded consensus long (long GS/short MS) that has already run ~20% YTD and sits only ~5% off an all-time high, so the whisper bar is above consensus and much of the good news is priced in. Over the following days the initial pop fades as: (1) crowded positioning takes profits, (2) FICC/rate softness and the ~20% tax-rate normalization temper out-period EPS revisions rather than lift them, and (3) same-morning June CPI plus JPM/Citi prints add an exogenous macro/rates overlay. Net 5-day residual gives back most of the day-1 gain to roughly flat-to-slightly-negative. |
LOW |