{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$15.25 vs. cons $14.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Equities trading revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.2B vs. cons $4.9B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Investment banking fees",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.95B vs. cons $2.75B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FICC trading revenue (in-quarter, key swing)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.7B vs. cons $3.67B (2026Q2)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "IB backlog / M&A + sponsor-monetization pipeline tone",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "backlog near 4-yr high implies ~$2.9B fee run-rate vs. cons ~$2.8B (2026Q3)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY tax rate guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~20% vs. cons ~20% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return / CET1 & buyback",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "CET1 ~12.6% vs. 12.5% prior; buyback ~$4.5B vs. $5.0B Q1 (2026Q2)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "GS likely beats comfortably on IB fees and equities financing with constructive pipeline tone, driving a modest day-1 pop (~+1.5% residual). But this is a super-crowded consensus long (long GS/short MS) that has already run ~20% YTD and sits only ~5% off an all-time high, so the whisper bar is above consensus and much of the good news is priced in. Over the following days the initial pop fades as: (1) crowded positioning takes profits, (2) FICC/rate softness and the ~20% tax-rate normalization temper out-period EPS revisions rather than lift them, and (3) same-morning June CPI plus JPM/Citi prints add an exogenous macro/rates overlay. Net 5-day residual gives back most of the day-1 gain to roughly flat-to-slightly-negative.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}