I'll research GS before writing the preview. Let me start by gathering recent earnings materials, news, and price data.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and get sector context.Let me pull management's outlook commentary from the Q1 call transcript.# Goldman Sachs (GS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Goldman heads into this print as one of the most consensus-long names in financials, and the sell-side is flagging that the bar is unusually high. UBS analyst Erika Najarian believes Goldman has probably the highest bar to clear going into earnings, given the crowded investor positioning of being long Goldman and short Morgan Stanley. Najarian notes that not only do both companies have to beat consensus significantly, but they also need pretty encouraging outlooks in terms of pipeline.
The positioning risk is real. Whisper numbers from the buy side for Goldman tend to be higher than consensus, meaning an in-line print may not be enough. On the paired trade, UBS characterizes the investor positioning as "a little dangerous game," with the buy side long Goldman, short Morgan Stanley, betting on the purest expression of capital markets versus a name trading at a very lofty price-to-tangible book multiple, describing this as "a super, super crowded trade."
Stock context: GS is up roughly ~14% since the start of January (close ~$914 → ~$1,046 on 7/13), and Goldman Sachs is up 20% year-to-date. Notably, the stock made an all-time high near $1,106 in late June and has since pulled back ~5%, so shares are entering the print already off their peak — a sign some froth has come out but also that expectations remain elevated.
Per Street estimates compiled ahead of the print:
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | ~$14.15 | +30% |
| Revenue | ~$16.04B | — |
| Equities trading | ~$4.9B | +14% |
| FICC trading | ~$3.67B | +6.1% |
| IB fees | ~$2.75B | +25.6% |
Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report FQ2 earnings on Tuesday, July 14th before the US open. The Street expects EPS to increase by 30% to $14.15, with revenue of approximately $16.04B. Equities Trading is seen up 14% to $4.9B, FICC Trading up 6.1% to $3.67B, and IB fees up 25.6% to $2.75B.
A modeling note: Don't be alarmed that the $14.15 EPS estimate is below Q1's $17.55. Q1 carried a large, seasonal tax benefit — the impact of tax benefits related to employee share-based awards reduced the Q1 tax provision by ~$895M, which alone added $2.91 to Q1 diluted EPS. Management guided to a ~20% full-year tax rate versus the 13.2% Q1 rate, so Q2's tax rate normalizes and mechanically lowers sequential EPS. Judge the quarter on revenue mix and pre-tax earnings, not the headline sequential EPS step-down.
Q1 2026 was a blockbuster and sets a tough comp base:
Two other Q1 items to carry forward: CET1 fell 180bps sequentially to 12.5% (buybacks + RWA growth in prime/acquisition financing/market risk), leaving ~110bps of cushion; and Goldman returned a record $6.38B to shareholders including $5.0B of buybacks.
a) The M&A / IB pipeline — the single most important commentary. Given the "encouraging outlook needed" framing, management's tone on backlog and pipeline will drive the stock as much as the numbers. Q1 backlog was described as still near a 4-year high even after huge accruals. On the Q1 call, Solomon said the environment for Investment Banking activity, particularly M&A, continues to be incredibly robust, while noting IPO activity had slowed with Middle East uncertainty. Watch for whether the IPO/ECM re-acceleration and — critically — the sponsor/private-equity monetization cycle he's flagged for years is finally turning.
b) Trading durability. Equities financing has roughly doubled over two years; the debate is how much is durable versus cyclical. FICC faces an easier bar this quarter (+6% consensus) than the -10% Q1 comp. Sustained prime balances and Asia momentum are the tells.
c) Private credit / credit quality. This is a heightened market focus. Encouragingly, Goldman Sachs received redemption requests for just 3% of shares in its private credit fund in the June quarter, significantly below the 10% to 17% redemption rates at other major Wall Street funds. Solomon has argued Goldman's book is ~80% institutional and would view a credit cycle as an opportunity. Watch the provision for credit losses (Q1 was $315M) for any signal of stress.
d) Asset & Wealth Management franchise wins. Recent momentum is a positive: Goldman Sachs won $70 billion in asset management deals with Verizon and Lockheed Martin, demonstrating the firm's competitive position in the multitrillion-dollar retirement assets market. Watch AUS flows and the drag from Marcus deposit NIM compression, which management expects to persist through 2026.
e) Capital & buybacks. With CET1 at 12.5% and a constructive read on the Basel III / G-SIB re-proposals, look for continued aggressive capital return. The board already declared a raised $4.50/share dividend in Q1.
Goldman is firing on nearly all cylinders — record GBM revenue, #1 M&A franchise, record AWM AUS, robust capital return — but that strength is well known and the stock has already run ~20% YTD into a very crowded long. The asymmetry here is skewed by positioning: numbers likely need to beat comfortably AND the pipeline/IPO/sponsor commentary needs to be confidently constructive to satisfy whisper expectations. The key swing factors to trade around are (1) IB backlog and sponsor-monetization tone, (2) whether FICC rebounds off its weak Q1 and trading durability holds, and (3) any credit-quality/private-credit reassurance. Watch the same-morning CPI print and JPM/Citi reactions as an exogenous overlay that could dominate a solid quarter either way.
Preview based on GS's Q1 2026 results and earnings call, recent news flow, Street consensus, and market pricing through July 13, 2026.