| GS |
Report |
EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$15.60 vs. cons $14.15 |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Report |
Investment Banking fees |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.05B vs. cons $2.75B |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Report |
Equities trading revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.25B vs. cons $4.9B |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Guide |
IB backlog/pipeline commentary (implied H2 growth) |
BETTER |
guide ~record/4-yr-high backlog implying ~+15% YoY H2 IB fee growth vs. cons ~+8% YoY (H2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Guide |
Comp ratio |
BETTER |
guide ~32% vs. cons ~33% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| GS |
Guide |
CET1 ratio / capital return pace |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~12.6% vs. cons ~12.5% CET1, buybacks ~$5B/qtr vs. cons ~$5B/qtr (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| GS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.3% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| GS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.6% (FADE) |
Whisper numbers already sit above published consensus and the stock has run +20% YTD (touching ~$1,106 before pulling back to ~$1,046), so a solid headline beat driven largely by episodic trading/financing revenue (per Q1's playbook) is likely mostly priced in. Crowded long-GS/short-MS positioning (per UBS's Najarian) raises sell-the-news risk: even with a beat, analysts will likely flag reliance on non-recurring equities financing/prime brokerage strength, persistent NIM compression in private banking, and Oppenheimer's stretched-multiple thesis, capping upward EPS revisions for FY26/27 out-quarters. Absent a decisive upside surprise in IB backlog conversion (sponsor/IPO reacceleration), initial day-1 pop likely fades over the week as valuation-focused sellers take profits into a still-elevated multiple. |
MEDIUM |