Report date: July 14, 2026, before the U.S. market open
Event: 2026Q2 earnings call
Closing share price on July 13: $1,045.95
Goldman enters the report with strong operating momentum but an unusually demanding setup. The firm produced near-record results in the first quarter, its investment-banking backlog remains robust, trading conditions have generally been favorable, and Asset & Wealth Management continues to attract substantial client assets.
The problem is that investors already expect much of this strength. GS shares have risen approximately 19% year to date and about 17% since the first-quarter report. At the July 13 close, the stock traded at roughly 2.9 times first-quarter book value and 3.1 times tangible book value. Buy-side expectations also appear to be above published consensus.
The key question is therefore not simply whether Goldman beats estimates. It is whether the results and management commentary support the market’s assumptions of:
Bottom line: Fundamentals look constructive, but the stock probably needs a meaningful beat and an encouraging outlook to react well.
| Metric | 2Q26 consensus | 2Q25 actual | YoY change | 1Q26 actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | $16.04B | $14.58B | +10% | $17.23B |
| Diluted EPS | $14.15 | $10.91 | +30% | $17.55 |
| Investment-banking fees | $2.75B | $2.19B | +26% | $2.84B |
| Equities revenue | $4.90B | $4.30B | +14% | $5.33B |
| FICC revenue | $3.67B | $3.47B | +6% | $4.01B |
The sequential decline implied by consensus is not inherently negative: the first quarter included record Global Banking & Markets revenue and a particularly strong Equities result.
The EPS comparison with 1Q26 is also distorted by taxes. First-quarter EPS benefited by $2.91 per share from employee stock-based compensation tax benefits, while management expects an approximately 20% full-year tax rate. Excluding that benefit, first-quarter EPS was approximately $14.64, making the second-quarter consensus closer to flat on an underlying basis.
Equities generated a record $5.33 billion in the first quarter, including:
The strength was driven by cash products, record prime balances and a deliberate expansion in Asia. Management said it had identified a competitive gap in the region and deployed additional capital to close it.
Consensus calls for $4.90 billion in 2Q, down about 8% sequentially but still 14% above the prior-year quarter. That looks achievable given the larger financing balance sheet and ongoing client activity, but expectations are already high.
Investors should focus on:
A large Equities beat would provide the cleanest path to upside. A result merely matching consensus may not be enough given the stock’s valuation and positioning.
First-quarter FICC revenue was $4.01 billion. Commodities and currencies were strong, while rates and mortgages were weaker due to a more challenging market-making environment.
Consensus expects $3.67 billion in the second quarter, approximately 6% above last year but 9% below 1Q. The quarter included meaningful volatility in energy, rates and currencies, which should have supported client activity. Goldman’s diversified FICC franchise and growing financing business provide some protection when individual trading categories are weak.
Important details will include:
The renewed U.S.-Iran escalation from July 7 through July 13 occurred after the June 30 quarter-end. It therefore will not affect reported second-quarter revenue, but it could materially influence management’s outlook for commodities, inflation, rates and client positioning.
Goldman’s investment-banking fees rose 48% year over year in the first quarter to $2.84 billion, led by an 89% increase in advisory revenue. Management described the backlog as extraordinarily robust and said strong quarterly revenue recognition had been offset by substantial new additions.
Consensus expects $2.75 billion in 2Q, up 26% year over year but modestly below the first quarter.
The mix is likely to matter more than the headline:
Investors will want evidence that the pipeline continues to replenish as revenue is recognized. A strong reported quarter accompanied by a lower backlog or more cautious pipeline commentary could be viewed negatively.
One of the most significant developments in 1Q was Goldman’s aggressive deployment of capital:
Capital was deployed into prime financing, acquisition financing, corporate lending, private-wealth lending and other client activities. Global Banking & Markets still produced a return on equity above 22%, supporting management’s argument that the deployment is economically attractive.
The second-quarter report should show whether that expansion is generating sustainable revenue without creating disproportionate funding, credit or capital costs.
Key numbers include:
Goldman’s 2026 stress capital buffer remains 3.4%, leaving its standardized CET1 requirement at 11.4%. The firm intends to raise its quarterly dividend from $4.50 to $5.00 per share, subject to board approval. That is a positive signal, but investors will still want clarity on buybacks after the firm repurchased a record $5 billion of stock in 1Q.
Asset & Wealth Management generated $4.08 billion of first-quarter revenue, including:
Total assets under supervision reached a record $3.65 trillion, supported by $62 billion of long-term net inflows. Goldman has now produced long-term fee-based inflows for 33 consecutive quarters.
Second-quarter items to watch include:
There are several favorable read-throughs. Innovator added approximately $31 billion of assets and more than 170 defined-outcome ETFs, while Goldman recently won roughly $70 billion of asset-management mandates from Verizon and Lockheed Martin. Its large private-credit vehicle also received redemption requests equal to only about 3% of shares for the June quarter, below its standard 5% quarterly repurchase cap and below the redemption levels reported by several competitors.
The main headwind is private banking and lending. First-quarter revenue fell 12% year over year as higher deposit costs compressed margins. Management previously said that pressure could persist through much of 2026.
First-quarter operating expenses rose 14% year over year to $10.43 billion. Transaction-based expenses increased 36%, largely reflecting higher Equities activity. Goldman reported a 60.5% efficiency ratio and remains focused on reaching approximately 60%.
The second quarter will test whether the firm can produce operating leverage while investing in:
Goldman accrued compensation at 32% of revenue net of provisions in 1Q, down from 33% a year earlier. Investors should watch whether that ratio is maintained and whether higher transaction costs absorb a disproportionate share of incremental trading revenue.
A revenue beat with an expense miss would probably be regarded as lower quality.
First-quarter credit provisions were $315 million, primarily reflecting wholesale loan growth and several small impairments. The increase was not attributed to defaults in private credit or FICC financing.
Management said realized lifetime losses in FICC financing—excluding certain direct commercial real estate exposure—had been zero to date. Nevertheless, investors remain focused on:
The most likely outcome is a provision reflecting growth and normal idiosyncratic impairments rather than broad deterioration. A material increase in reserves or nonaccrual loans would be a notable negative because credit concerns are not central to the current consensus thesis.
A high-quality result would likely include:
Given reported buy-side “whisper” expectations, simply matching these published figures may produce a muted response.
This would reinforce the argument that Goldman has structurally increased the scale and durability of its earnings.
Fundamentally positive, but the share-price reaction could be limited because much is already discounted.
Because GS trades at a premium valuation and investor positioning is crowded, disappointment in any combination of trading, pipeline commentary and capital could produce an outsized negative reaction.
Goldman’s underlying businesses appear well positioned for another strong quarter. Trading, strategic M&A, financing and asset-management flows all provide credible avenues for upside. The firm also has a cleaner strategic profile than in prior years, with Platform Solutions becoming less important and fee-based AWM revenue growing.
The investment debate is now centered less on whether Goldman’s franchise is improving and more on how much improvement is already priced in. With the stock near 3.1 times first-quarter tangible book value and expectations elevated, the hurdle is high: Goldman likely needs not only a clear earnings beat, but also evidence that its expanded balance sheet, banking backlog and trading franchise can continue generating high-teens or better returns without sacrificing capital flexibility.