{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$16.45B vs. cons $16.04B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Investment-banking fees",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.91B vs. cons $2.75B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Equities revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.83B vs. cons $4.90B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Investment-banking backlog / 2H26 fee outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~4% y/y fee-growth outlook vs. cons 3% y/y (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Equities-financing growth outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~20% y/y financing-revenue growth vs. cons 15% y/y (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Asset & Wealth Management private-banking / lending revenue outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~6% y/y durable-revenue growth vs. cons 8% y/y (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return / common-stock repurchases",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.5B quarterly repurchases vs. cons $4.5B (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "A ~$16.45B revenue print versus $16.04B consensus and stronger banking fees should clear the headline hurdle, but an Equities miss of ~$4.83B versus $4.90B and still-elevated valuation/positioning limit estimate-revision upside. Better banking and financing commentary supports maintained out-period estimates rather than a material upward reset.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}