Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is constructive but not without risk — consensus is a moderate bar after a record Q1, and the single biggest swing factor is whether the record M&A pipeline and surging equities franchise can sustain momentum through a quarter that management itself described as healthy "all the way through."

Goldman Sachs heads into Q2 2026 earnings with the wind at its back but a high base to clear. Consensus expects total net revenues of approximately $16.4B and operating EPS of approximately $14.46, both representing a meaningful step-down from the record-adjacent Q1 2026 print ($17.2B revenue, $17.55 EPS) — a bar that looks achievable given management's own characterization of Q2 market conditions as "healthy all the way through." At the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in late May, President & COO John Waldron disclosed that announced M&A volumes year-to-date had reached $2 trillion, corporate M&A was up 62% year-over-year, IPO volumes were up ~80% year-over-year to ~$85B, and Goldman held an "almost $300 billion lead" in the M&A league tables — its largest ever at this point in the year. Estimate revisions have been broadly positive since the Q1 beat, with the equities franchise (consensus ~$5.1B for Q2) and investment banking (~$2.9B) both tracking above prior-year levels. The stock has rallied ~17.4% since the Q1 earnings date (vs. XLF +8.5%, SPY +9.2%), suggesting the market has already priced in a solid quarter, which raises the bar for a positive reaction on the day. The key wildcard is FICC: consensus sits at ~$3.8B, well below Q1's $4.0B, and any macro-driven volatility spike or rates/credit dislocation in June could push FICC materially above or below that number — making it the most binary line item heading into the print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderate bar after a record Q1 — the step-down in revenue and EPS expectations is rational given seasonality, but equities and investment banking are the bigger swing factors given the disclosed pipeline strength, while FICC is the key risk line.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 13, 2026. Q2 2026 actuals not yet reported.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Last 8 Quarters (Top 2 KPIs: Total Net Revenues & Operating EPS)

Pattern: GS has beaten consensus on both revenue and operating EPS in every one of the last 8 quarters, with EPS surprise averaging ~+15% — the Street consistently underestimates Goldman's earnings power, particularly in volatile macro environments where trading revenues surge. The Q2 2026 consensus bar of $14.46 EPS and $16.4B revenue looks beatable given the disclosed pipeline strength, but the stock's +17% post-Q1 rally means the market has already partially priced in another beat.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management's tone has shifted meaningfully more bullish since Q1 earnings — the Bernstein conference in late May provided the most explicit forward commentary yet, with Waldron describing Q2 market conditions as "healthy all the way through" and M&A volumes tracking toward the 2021 record. The only notable headwind flagged is NIM compression in private banking, which management expects to persist through 2026.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimate revisions have moved sharply higher since Q1 2026 earnings, with the Street consistently playing catch-up to Goldman's actual earnings power. The 8-quarter unbroken beat streak and management's bullish Bernstein commentary have driven consensus EPS for Q2 2026 to $14.46 — well above the $9.85 consensus that existed heading into Q2 2025, reflecting the structural re-rating of the franchise.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Consensus estimates shown are as of the prior quarter's earnings date.

FY2026 Consensus: Total Net Revenues $65.2B | Operating EPS $60.26 | FY2027 Consensus: Total Net Revenues $68.7B | Operating EPS $67.43 (Source: Visible Alpha)

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: GS has significantly outperformed both the financials sector (XLF) and the broader market (SPY) since Q1 2026 earnings, rallying +17.4% vs. XLF +8.5% and SPY +9.2% — a strong re-rating that reflects the disclosed M&A pipeline strength and CCAR dividend increase, but also raises the bar for a positive reaction on Q2 results day.

GS vs. XLF vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (April 13, 2026). Key events annotated. Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Stock Setup Commentary: The stock's +17.4% rally since Q1 earnings — driven by the Bernstein conference disclosures (M&A at $2T, IPO volumes +80% YoY) and the CCAR-driven dividend increase to $5.00/share — means the market has already priced in a strong Q2. The stock peaked near $1,106 on June 22 before pulling back ~5% into earnings, suggesting some profit-taking ahead of the print. At current levels (~$1,046), GS trades at approximately 14.5x FY2026 consensus EPS of $60.26 and 15.5x FY2027 consensus EPS of $67.43 — a premium to historical averages that is justified by the structural re-rating of the franchise but leaves limited room for disappointment.

6. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026) and Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 27–28, 2026) is broadly constructive for GS's Q2 2026 setup — peers confirm robust capital markets activity, resilient consumer spending, and strong M&A/deal pipelines through the quarter, with the key debate being whether macro uncertainty (inflation, geopolitics, higher-for-longer rates) will dampen execution in H2 2026.

Note: Only commentary from conferences and events occurring after GS's Q1 2026 earnings (April 13, 2026) and referencing current Q2 2026 conditions is included below. Prior-quarter earnings call commentary has been excluded.

Morgan Stanley (MS) — MS U.S. Financials Conference, June 9, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: High — MS is GS's closest peer across investment banking, equities, and wealth management.

• Capital Markets & M&A: MS management confirmed that capital markets activity remained healthy through Q2, with ongoing geopolitics and potential inflation import as key themes for 2026. The tone was constructive on deal activity, consistent with GS's own Bernstein disclosures of M&A volumes tracking toward the 2021 record.
• Macro Backdrop: MS highlighted "ongoing geopolitics" and the risk of "importing inflation around the world" as key 2026 themes — a macro backdrop that historically benefits GS's FICC franchise through elevated client hedging activity and portfolio repositioning flows.
• Wealth Management: MS's wealth management commentary was constructive, with client engagement remaining strong despite macro uncertainty — a positive read-through for GS's Asset & Wealth Management segment, which has delivered 33 consecutive quarters of long-term fee-based net inflows.
• GS Read-Through: Broadly positive for GS's Global Banking & Markets and AWM segments. MS's constructive tone on capital markets activity through Q2 supports the view that GS's IB and equities revenues should remain elevated.

Bank of America (BAC) — Bernstein Conference (May 27) & MS Financials Conference (June 9, 2026)

Read-Through Relevance: Medium-High — BAC's commentary on consumer health, capital markets, and macro conditions is a useful cross-check for GS's trading and IB environment.

• Consumer Resilience: BAC reported consumer spending up 5% in May (first 20 days) year-over-year, consistent with April and Q1 trends, describing the underlying economy as "strong." BAC noted that "surveys reflect considerably more caution than what we actually see in the numbers" — a key insight suggesting the macro fear premium in markets may be overstated.
• GDP Outlook: BAC projected U.S. GDP growth at 2.2% for 2026, which management characterized as "reasonably strong" relative to the last 15–20 years. This is a constructive backdrop for GS's corporate advisory and financing businesses.
• Capital Markets Activity: BAC's commentary on capital markets was constructive, with deal activity remaining healthy through Q2. No specific volume disclosures, but the tone was consistent with GS's own bullish pipeline commentary.
• GS Read-Through: Positive. BAC's consumer spending data and GDP outlook support a healthy economic backdrop for GS's M&A advisory and financing businesses. The "surveys vs. reality" divergence is particularly relevant — it suggests GS's actual deal activity may be stronger than macro sentiment indicators would imply.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, May 27, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: High — JPM is the most direct peer to GS across investment banking, trading, and capital markets.

• Macro Caution: CEO Jamie Dimon described his view as "cautiously pessimistic," noting that while things are "so far, so good this year," the future is uncertain. He flagged the war in Ukraine, terrorism in the Middle East, "huge global deficits," and "very high asset prices, very low credit spreads" as major concerns. This is a more cautious tone than GS's Waldron, but Dimon's caution is well-known and has not historically prevented strong trading/IB results.
• Inflation Risk: Dimon stated he is "on the side that I think you might have a little more inflation than people expect" — a view that, if correct, would be a net positive for GS's FICC franchise (rates volatility, commodities, currencies) but a potential headwind for equity valuations and M&A execution.
• Capital Markets Tone: Despite the cautious macro framing, JPM's underlying capital markets commentary was constructive for Q2, consistent with the broader peer group. The "so far, so good" characterization of 2026 suggests deal activity has held up through the quarter.
• GS Read-Through: Mixed but net positive. Dimon's macro caution is a known risk factor, but his "so far, so good" characterization of 2026 and the constructive capital markets backdrop support GS's Q2 setup. Higher-for-longer inflation would be a net positive for GS's FICC trading revenues.

Blackstone (BX) — MS U.S. Financials Conference, June 9, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: Medium — BX's commentary on private markets, fundraising, and deal activity is a useful read-through for GS's alternatives and AWM businesses.

• Economic Resilience: BX stated the economy has been "much more resilient than people expected" and will likely end the year "in a better spot than people expected" — a bullish macro read-through for GS's deal-dependent businesses.
• Inflation / Shelter Costs: BX noted "near-term headwinds from energy prices" and lingering tariff impacts, but highlighted that shelter costs (the biggest CPI component) are running in the "low 1s" vs. government data in the "low 3s" — suggesting inflation may be less persistent than feared, which would be positive for rate-sensitive businesses.
• Private Markets / Fundraising: BX's constructive tone on private markets fundraising and deal activity is a positive read-through for GS's alternatives business (~$645B total AUS, ~$430B fee-paying), which is targeting $75–$100B in annual alternatives fundraising.
• GS Read-Through: Positive for GS's AWM and alternatives segments. BX's economic resilience commentary and constructive private markets tone support continued strong fundraising and fee generation at GS.

KKR — Bernstein Conference (May 27) & MS Financials Conference (June 10, 2026)

Read-Through Relevance: Medium — KKR's commentary on private credit, M&A, and capital markets activity is relevant for GS's alternatives and IB businesses.

• Macro Anxiety vs. Reality: KKR stated that "the anxiety exceeds the reality as it relates to our business day-to-day" — a key insight suggesting that macro fear is not translating into actual deal slowdowns. This is consistent with GS's own Bernstein commentary showing M&A volumes at $2T YTD.
• Higher-for-Longer Rates: KKR expects inflation and rates to be "a bit higher for longer," characterizing H1 2026 as marked by "geopolitical volatility, higher for longer rates, growing questions around AI-related capital spend." This environment benefits GS's FICC financing and private credit businesses.
• Private Credit & Capital Markets: KKR's constructive tone on private credit deployment and capital markets activity through Q2 is a positive read-through for GS's Capital Solutions Group, which worked on $2.7T of league table volume in capital markets last year and is described as "bigger this year so far."
• GS Read-Through: Positive for GS's FICC financing, private credit, and IB businesses. KKR's "anxiety exceeds reality" framing is particularly relevant — it suggests GS's actual deal activity is holding up better than macro sentiment would imply.

Apollo Global Management (APO) — Bernstein Conference (May 28) & MS Financials Conference (June 10, 2026)

Read-Through Relevance: Medium — APO's commentary on private credit, M&A, and CapEx cycles is relevant for GS's alternatives and IB businesses.

• Macro Framework — "Narrowest Fairway": APO characterized the current environment as the "narrowest fairway we've had in a long time," with a "massive CapEx cycle" and "big M&A cycle" on the fairway, but "inflation, global fragmentation, the crisis in the Middle East" in the rough. This is the most nuanced macro framing from any peer — it acknowledges both the opportunity (M&A/CapEx boom) and the risk (macro headwinds).
• AI as the Dominant Theme: APO stated that AI is "the only really thing that matters" in the current environment, driving the CapEx cycle and M&A consolidation wave. This is directly consistent with GS's own commentary on AI-driven M&A ("winner take most" environment) and GS's One Goldman Sachs 3.0 AI strategy.
• M&A Cycle Strength: APO's characterization of a "big M&A cycle" on the fairway is a strong read-through for GS's investment banking franchise, which holds its largest-ever league table lead at this point in the year.
• GS Read-Through: Positive for GS's IB and alternatives businesses. APO's AI-driven M&A and CapEx cycle commentary directly supports GS's disclosed pipeline strength. The "narrowest fairway" framing is a useful risk calibration — the opportunity is real but execution risk from macro headwinds is non-trivial.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

7. Material News & Developments (Since Q1 2026 Earnings)

Key Takeaway: The most significant post-Q1 development is the CCAR-driven dividend increase to $5.00/share (+11% from current, +25% YoY), which signals management's confidence in earnings durability and capital strength. The Bernstein conference provided the most detailed forward-looking commentary on Q2 conditions, and the Series T preferred redemption further simplifies the capital structure.

• CCAR Results & Dividend Increase (June 24, 2026): The Federal Reserve's 2026 CCAR demonstrated GS "remains well capitalized to withstand a wide range of economic conditions." The firm's Stress Capital Buffer (SCB) will remain at 3.4% through September 30, 2027, and the Standardized CET1 ratio requirement stays at 11.4%. GS intends to increase its common dividend from $4.50 to $5.00 per share (+11% from current, +25% YoY), effective July 1, 2026, subject to Board approval. CEO David Solomon stated: "Today's announcement reflects the continued strength of our earnings and capital position, and our commitment to delivering sustainable, long-term returns to shareholders." This is a strong positive signal heading into Q2 earnings.
• Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 28, 2026): President & COO John Waldron provided the most detailed Q2 2026 forward commentary to date: (1) M&A volumes at $2T YTD, tracking toward the 2021 record; (2) corporate M&A +62% YoY; (3) IPO volumes +80% YoY to ~$85B; (4) GS holds an "almost $300B lead" in M&A league tables — its largest ever at this point in the year; (5) market has been "healthy all the way through Q2"; (6) AUS at $3.7T; (7) alternatives platform at ~$645B total / ~$430B fee-paying. This commentary is the single most important data point for the Q2 setup.
• Series T Preferred Stock Redemption (May 12, 2026): GS redeemed and eliminated its Series T Preferred Stock, further simplifying the capital structure and reducing preferred dividend obligations. This is a modest positive for common equity holders.
• Annual Meeting (May 1, 2026): Shareholders re-elected all directors, approved executive pay, and rejected activist proposals — a clean governance outcome with no material surprises.
• New Debt Issuance (April 20, 2026): GS issued $6.5 billion in new debt notes, consistent with ongoing balance sheet management and funding of client activity. No material read-through for Q2 earnings.
• Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026): GS did not present at this conference (peers MS, BAC, BX, C did), but the peer commentary (see Section 6) provides useful read-throughs for GS's Q2 setup.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Insider activity since Q1 2026 earnings has been exclusively dispositions (sales) by senior executives, including CEO David Solomon — a pattern consistent with routine compensation-related selling rather than a directional signal, as all sales appear to be non-10b5-1 plan transactions following the annual compensation cycle. No insider purchases have been filed.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data).

Interpretation: All insider transactions since Q1 2026 earnings have been sales/dispositions, concentrated around May 1, 2026 — consistent with the annual compensation vesting cycle following the April 13 earnings release. CEO Solomon retained 137,262 shares after selling 3,470 shares, representing a very small fraction of his total holdings. CFO Coleman's sale of 6,857 shares (retaining 31,070) is similarly routine. The Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 10% owner transactions (48 shares sold on June 15) appear to be market-making or hedging activity. No insider purchases have been filed, which is neutral — insiders are not signaling concern, but they are also not adding to positions ahead of earnings. The overall insider picture is consistent with routine compensation-related selling and does not represent a directional signal for Q2 results.

Appendix: Key Risks & Considerations

Key Takeaway: The primary risks to the Q2 2026 setup are a FICC revenue miss (if macro volatility was insufficient to drive client flows), NIM compression in private banking (a known headwind management has flagged), and stock reaction risk given the +17.4% pre-earnings rally.

• FICC Revenue Risk (Key Downside): Consensus expects FICC of ~$3.8B in Q2 2026, down from $4.0B in Q1. If macro volatility was insufficient to drive client hedging and repositioning flows — particularly in rates and mortgages, which were weak in Q1 — FICC could miss. Conversely, if geopolitical events or inflation surprises drove elevated volatility in June, FICC could beat materially.
• NIM Compression in Private Banking (Known Headwind): Management explicitly flagged that NIM compression from a competitive deposit rate environment "will persist as a headwind for much of 2026." This is a known drag on AWM revenues and is already embedded in consensus, but any acceleration of deposit competition could create incremental downside.
• Stock Reaction Risk (High Bar): GS has rallied +17.4% since Q1 earnings, significantly outperforming XLF (+8.5%) and SPY (+9.2%). The stock peaked near $1,106 on June 22 before pulling back ~5% into earnings. A beat that is in-line with the disclosed pipeline strength may not be sufficient to drive a positive reaction — the market may need a material upside surprise on equities or IB to push the stock higher.
• Macro / Geopolitical Uncertainty: JPM's Dimon flagged "huge global deficits, very high asset prices, very low credit spreads" as concerns. APO's "narrowest fairway" framing acknowledges that while the M&A/CapEx cycle is strong, macro risks (inflation, global fragmentation, Middle East) could disrupt execution. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions or unexpected inflation data could impact deal activity in H2 2026.
• Regulatory Environment: The CCAR results (SCB unchanged at 3.4%, CET1 requirement at 11.4%) were in line with expectations and represent a neutral-to-positive outcome. Management has characterized the regulatory environment as moving toward a "more balanced regime," which is a tailwind for capital deployment and growth.
• AI Investment Costs: GS is accelerating investment in cloud migration, data infrastructure, and AI-enabled client tooling as part of One Goldman Sachs 3.0. Management acknowledged that "the path to AI-driven efficiency requires upfront infrastructure investment before productivity gains are realized" — a potential near-term drag on the efficiency ratio.

— End of Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 Earnings Preview —

Disclosures & Sources: This document was prepared on July 13, 2026. Financial data sourced from Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Stock price data sourced from Yahoo Finance. Insider transaction data sourced from SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Peer commentary sourced from publicly available conference transcripts (Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, May 27–28, 2026; Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference, June 9–10, 2026). GS corporate disclosures sourced from SEC 8-K filings and press releases. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.