ISRG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ISRG Report Revenue BEAT pred ~$2.86B vs. cons $2.81B MEDIUM
ISRG Report da Vinci procedure growth (YoY) BEAT pred ~16.5% vs. cons ~15% HIGH
ISRG Report Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$2.56 vs. cons $2.48 MEDIUM
ISRG Guide FY2026 da Vinci procedure growth guide BETTER guide ~14.5-16% vs. cons ~15% (FY2026, prior range 13.5-15.5%) MEDIUM
ISRG Guide FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin guide UNCHANGED guide ~67.5-68.5% vs. cons ~68% (FY2026, tariff/memory drag embedded) MEDIUM
ISRG Guide da Vinci I&A revenue per procedure (recurring-revenue referendum) UNKNOWN pred ~$1,870-1,900 vs. cons ~$1,880 (Q2, instrument-life extension is the swing risk) LOW
ISRG Guide System placements (da Vinci + dV5 mix) BETTER pred ~430 da Vinci (~240 dV5) vs. cons ~415 (Q2, vs 395 yr-ago) MEDIUM
ISRG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +6.0% MEDIUM
ISRG Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.5% (FADE) Washed-out sentiment (stock -33% YTD, multiple compressed to ~46x from ~72x) plus ISRG's historical beat-and-raise pattern set up a sharp relief pop on a clean procedure beat and raised full-year guide. But the rally partially fades over the week because the out-period math works against it: the instrument-life/reuse extensions structurally lower future I&A revenue-per-procedure, and tariff/memory/dV5-mix pressure caps gross-margin upside, so analysts trim out-year recurring-revenue and margin estimates even after a headline Q2 beat — leaving day-5 residual positive but below the day-1 spike. LOW