JNJ Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
JNJ Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$2.93 vs. cons $2.86 MEDIUM
JNJ Report Total revenue (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$25.15B vs. cons $25.03B MEDIUM
JNJ Report Innovative Medicine revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$16.35B vs. cons $16.1B MEDIUM
JNJ Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide BETTER guide ~$11.60 vs. cons $11.55 (FY2026) MEDIUM
JNJ Guide FY2026 Reported sales guide BETTER guide ~$101.0B vs. cons $100.8B (FY2026) MEDIUM
JNJ Guide MedTech organic growth (Q2'26) LOWER guide ~+4.5% vs. cons +5.25% (Q2'26) MEDIUM
JNJ Guide 2H MedTech/EP China VBP headwind commentary LOWER guide ~-100bps drag vs. cons ~0bps (2H'26) LOW
JNJ Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% LOW
JNJ Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.3% (FADE) A beat + modest raise likely sparks a small day-1 pop, but the raise is largely FX/beat flow-through rather than an underlying step-up. Out-period math is capped by known 2H headwinds (China VBP in EP, continued STELARA erosion, heavy 1H launch investment/tariff margin pressure) and soft MedTech, so consensus out-quarters get trimmed even after a beat. With the stock up ~22% YTD, near ATH (~$267 on 7/7) and already down 5% into the print, profit-taking and a demanding bar drive a fade back toward flat. LOW