Report date: July 15, 2026, before the U.S. market open
Event: 2026 Q2 earnings call
Last close: $253.89 on July 14
Year-to-date performance: approximately +22%
Johnson & Johnson enters Q2 with strong operating momentum—and a materially higher investor bar.
The core investment case is that rapid growth from oncology, TREMFYA, CAPLYTA, SPRAVATO and cardiovascular devices can more than offset STELARA’s biosimilar decline. Q1 supported that thesis: operational sales rose 6.4% despite a 5.4-percentage-point drag from STELARA, while companywide growth excluding STELARA was double-digit.
For Q2, a modest headline beat may not be enough. Investors will likely focus on:
The setup remains fundamentally constructive, but with the shares up roughly 22% this year and trading near 22 times the current adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, expectations already incorporate substantial execution.
| Metric | Q2 2026 consensus | Q2 2025 actual | Implied growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.03B | $23.74B | +5.4% |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.86 | $2.77 | +3.2% |
| Innovative Medicine sales | $16.1B | $15.20B | +5.9% |
| MedTech sales | $8.9B | $8.54B | +4.2% |
Current full-year guidance calls for:
The 2026 calendar contains a 53rd week, expected to add roughly one percentage point to full-year growth, principally in Q4.
STELARA remains the largest visible headwind. Its Q1 sales fell 62% operationally to $656M, subtracting approximately 9.2 percentage points from Innovative Medicine growth and 5.4 points from companywide growth.
That decline should remain severe in Q2, but the year-over-year comparison is becoming somewhat less difficult because biosimilar erosion was already evident in Q2 2025. More important than STELARA’s exact decline will be the performance of the portfolio excluding it.
In Q1:
A similar ex-STELARA result in Q2 would reinforce management’s claim that J&J has already transitioned beyond its former largest product. A meaningful slowdown would call into question how quickly newer assets can replace the lost, high-margin STELARA revenue.
ICOTYDE, J&J’s oral IL-23-targeted peptide for plaque psoriasis, received FDA approval in March. Management believes it can become one of the company’s largest products, based on its potential to move patients from topical treatments to an effective once-daily systemic therapy.
Early indicators have been encouraging:
The most important Q2 disclosures would be:
A strong launch could materially increase confidence in J&J’s late-decade growth targets. Conversely, vague commentary without updated metrics may be viewed cautiously given management’s unusually bullish peak-sales language.
TREMFYA sales rose 64% operationally in Q1 to $1.61B, supported by inflammatory bowel disease launches and share gains in psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis. Management says it is now the leader in new-patient starts in IBD and continues to target more than $10B in peak annual sales.
Q2 expectations should remain high. Investors will look for:
Together, TREMFYA and ICOTYDE are becoming the centerpiece of J&J’s post-STELARA immunology franchise.
Oncology grew 17.8% operationally in Q1 and should again generate a disproportionate share of company growth.
Key products include:
RYBREVANT and INLEXZO deserve particular attention because management has identified both as materially underestimated by consensus. For INLEXZO, the relevant question is whether strong post-reimbursement growth can broaden beyond the relatively small initial patient population ahead of additional indication expansions.
Neuroscience grew 29% operationally in Q1.
CAPLYTA is especially important because it also explains part of the gap between reported and organic growth: J&J acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies in April 2025. The acquisition enters the comparison base during Q2, reducing the acquisition contribution from this point onward. Investors should therefore distinguish underlying prescription growth from acquisition-related growth.
Consensus expects approximately $8.9B of MedTech sales, implying roughly 4.2% reported growth. Q1 operational growth was 4.6%, with substantial variation by franchise:
| Q1 franchise | Operational growth |
|---|---|
| Cardiovascular | 10.5% |
| Electrophysiology | 9.5% |
| Abiomed | 14.4% |
| Shockwave | 18.1% |
| Surgery | 1.2% |
| Vision | 3.6% |
| Orthopaedics | 3.2% |
Management said Q1 represented normal seasonality and expressed confidence in acceleration beginning in Q2. That makes the segment’s performance an important credibility test.
Cardiovascular should again lead MedTech, driven by:
Potential offsets include rising competition in pulsed-field ablation and IVL. Shockwave’s growth may naturally moderate from its current high-teens rate as comparisons become more difficult.
Surgery remains the weakest major franchise, facing competitive pressure in energy and endocutters, China procurement policies and internal restructuring. A move toward mid-single-digit growth would improve the quality of the overall result.
Vision should benefit from new premium intraocular lenses, including TECNIS PureSee. Management previously forecast stronger second-half growth, particularly in the U.S., where Q1 performance was affected by competition.
J&J continues to target a mid-2027 separation of DePuy Synthes. Investors will look for:
Q1 adjusted EPS fell 2.5% despite strong sales growth. The pressure came from:
Adjusted segment margins fell sharply in Q1:
Management has said launch investment is weighted toward the first half and continues to guide to at least 50 basis points of full-year adjusted pretax margin expansion. Accordingly, investors should want to see either:
An EPS beat produced mainly by a favorable tax rate would be lower quality than one supported by operating leverage.
After raising guidance in Q1, J&J needs at minimum to reaffirm its operating outlook. Given the strong product trends and favorable reported growth setup, investors may expect another increase.
The best outcome would be:
A reported-sales raise driven primarily by foreign exchange would be less meaningful. Management’s Q1 reported outlook used an assumption of approximately $1.17 per euro, so investors should separate currency effects from changes in underlying demand.
At current consensus, first-half sales would total roughly $49.1B, leaving about $51.7B needed in the second half to reach the existing reported-sales midpoint. That looks achievable given the extra week in Q4, but it also leaves execution dependent on accelerating launches and improving MedTech performance.
JNJ’s Q2 report is less about whether total sales grow around 5% and more about whether the company can demonstrate that its new portfolio is creating a durable, higher-growth earnings base.
The most valuable evidence would be a strong ICOTYDE launch, sustained TREMFYA and oncology momentum, and a clear turn toward operating leverage. The weakest version of a “beat” would rely on currency, tax or acquired CAPLYTA revenue while margins and MedTech remain sluggish.
Fundamentally, the setup is favorable. From a stock-reaction perspective, however, the bar is high: the shares have risen roughly 22% year to date, management has made ambitious claims for several new products, and the current valuation leaves less room for an in-line quarter. A clean operational beat and raise is likely needed to extend the rally.