JPM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-14

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
JPM Report EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$5.78 vs. cons $5.61 MEDIUM
JPM Report Markets/Trading revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$10.7B vs. cons ~$10.0B MEDIUM
JPM Report Net interest income (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$25.8B vs. cons ~$25.6B MEDIUM
JPM Guide FY26 total NII guide BETTER guide ~$104B vs. cons ~$103B (FY2026) MEDIUM
JPM Guide FY26 adjusted expense guide LOWER guide ~$106B vs. cons ~$105B (FY2026) MEDIUM
JPM Guide FY26 card net charge-off rate guide UNCHANGED guide ~3.4% vs. cons ~3.4% (FY2026) MEDIUM
JPM Guide Reserve build / credit tone (Q2'26) UNKNOWN pred build ~$0.5B vs. cons ~$0.4B (Q2'26) LOW
JPM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.5% LOW
JPM Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.8% (FADE) EPS/markets beat is largely priced in — stock sits ~1.4% below its early-July high, buy-side whispers already run above the Street, and UBS flags a 'messy' mega-bank day with high bars. A modest NII guide-raise is offset by higher expense guidance (good-problem spend that reads negatively) and no big rate-driven NII inflection (~20bps). Out-period math is roughly neutral-to-slightly-down: elevated Q1/Q2 markets run-rate is hard to extrapolate (pull-forward risk), so back-half revisions don't ratchet up enough to sustain a pop. Add succession/Epstein-letter Q&A overhang plus same-week CPI/PPI/Warsh rate cross-currents, and an initial relief bid tends to give back over the week. LOW