{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.78 vs. cons $5.61",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Markets/Trading revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.7B vs. cons ~$10.0B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net interest income (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$25.8B vs. cons ~$25.6B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 total NII guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$104B vs. cons ~$103B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 adjusted expense guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$106B vs. cons ~$105B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 card net charge-off rate guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.4% vs. cons ~3.4% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Reserve build / credit tone (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred build ~$0.5B vs. cons ~$0.4B (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.75,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "EPS/markets beat is largely priced in \u2014 stock sits ~1.4% below its early-July high, buy-side whispers already run above the Street, and UBS flags a 'messy' mega-bank day with high bars. A modest NII guide-raise is offset by higher expense guidance (good-problem spend that reads negatively) and no big rate-driven NII inflection (~20bps). Out-period math is roughly neutral-to-slightly-down: elevated Q1/Q2 markets run-rate is hard to extrapolate (pull-forward risk), so back-half revisions don't ratchet up enough to sustain a pop. Add succession/Epstein-letter Q&A overhang plus same-week CPI/PPI/Warsh rate cross-currents, and an initial relief bid tends to give back over the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}