JPM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-14

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
JPM Report EPS (adjusted) BEAT pred ~$5.78 vs. cons $5.61 MEDIUM
JPM Report Markets/Trading Revenue BEAT pred ~$10.8B vs. cons $10.0B MEDIUM
JPM Report Net Interest Income (NII) IN-LINE pred ~$25.4B vs. cons $25.6B MEDIUM
JPM Guide FY2026 Total NII guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$103B vs. cons/prior guide $103B (FY2026) MEDIUM
JPM Guide FY2026 Adjusted Expense guidance LOWER guide ~$106.5B vs. prior guide $105B (FY2026) MEDIUM
JPM Guide Card Net Charge-off rate guidance UNCHANGED guide ~3.4% vs. prior guide 3.4% (FY2026) HIGH
JPM Guide CET1 ratio / capital return tone BETTER pred ~14.5% vs. prior 14.3% (Q2 2026, ~$40B+ excess capital) LOW
JPM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.9% MEDIUM
JPM Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.0% (FADE) Whisper numbers already run above the $5.61 EPS/‑9.8% NII consensus, and the stock has rallied ~15% into the print at premium multiples, so even a genuine trading/IB beat is largely pre-priced (UBS's 'mess' warning). Expenses are the swing factor: Dimon's 'not a promise' framing plus stronger revenue-linked comp implies FY26 adjusted expense guidance nudges above the prior $105B, which sell-side models will read through to trim implied full-year operating leverage/EPS even after a Q2 beat. Absent a clear NII/guide raise or succession clarity, analysts likely shave out-period estimates modestly, and Basel III/G-SIB capital-rule uncertainty caps upside to buyback-driven re-rating, producing a fade rather than follow-through. MEDIUM