{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (adjusted)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.78 vs. cons $5.61",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Markets/Trading Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.8B vs. cons $10.0B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Interest Income (NII)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$25.4B vs. cons $25.6B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Total NII guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$103B vs. cons/prior guide $103B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted Expense guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$106.5B vs. prior guide $105B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Card Net Charge-off rate guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.4% vs. prior guide 3.4% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "CET1 ratio / capital return tone",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred ~14.5% vs. prior 14.3% (Q2 2026, ~$40B+ excess capital)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.9,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Whisper numbers already run above the $5.61 EPS/\u20119.8% NII consensus, and the stock has rallied ~15% into the print at premium multiples, so even a genuine trading/IB beat is largely pre-priced (UBS's 'mess' warning). Expenses are the swing factor: Dimon's 'not a promise' framing plus stronger revenue-linked comp implies FY26 adjusted expense guidance nudges above the prior $105B, which sell-side models will read through to trim implied full-year operating leverage/EPS even after a Q2 beat. Absent a clear NII/guide raise or succession clarity, analysts likely shave out-period estimates modestly, and Basel III/G-SIB capital-rule uncertainty caps upside to buyback-driven re-rating, producing a fade rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}