Report date: July 14, 2026, before the U.S. market open
Event: 2026Q2 earnings call
Last close: $334.57 on July 13
JPMorgan enters the quarter with strong operating momentum, abundant capital and favorable trading and investment-banking conditions. The difficulty is that investors already expect a very good report.
Management indicated in late May that second-quarter investment-banking fees were tracking at least 10% higher year over year, while Markets revenue was expected to increase approximately 11%—and possibly somewhat more. Current expectations appear even stronger, particularly for trading. That raises the bar: simply confirming healthy capital-markets activity may not be enough to drive the shares higher.
The most important variables will therefore be:
| Metric | 2026Q2 expectation | Relevant comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $5.61 | $4.96 adjusted in 2025Q2; $5.94 in 2026Q1 |
| Revenue | ~$49.5B | $45.7B managed revenue in 2025Q2 |
| Net interest income | ~$25.6B | $23.3B in 2025Q2; $25.5B in 2026Q1 |
| Noninterest income | ~$23.7B | $22.4B in 2025Q2 |
| Markets revenue | More than $10B | $8.9B in 2025Q2 |
| 2026 adjusted expenses | Company outlook: ~$106B | Raised from ~$105B in May |
The 2025Q2 adjusted EPS comparison excludes a $0.28-per-share tax benefit. Reported 2025Q2 EPS was $5.24.
Markets was already exceptionally strong in the first quarter:
For the second quarter, management said in May that Markets revenue was tracking approximately 11% higher and could do “a little better.” Expectations have since moved toward more than $10 billion, implying roughly 15% growth from the $8.9 billion reported a year ago.
Volatility across rates, currencies, commodities and equities should have supported client activity. Importantly, JPMorgan said after the first quarter that it had not experienced significant “bad volatility”—the discontinuous, illiquid type that causes clients to step back and can produce trading losses.
A result near $10 billion would be objectively strong, but could still feel merely in line given the elevated setup. A clearly better-than-expected result, particularly if accompanied by constructive July commentary, would be more meaningful.
Investors should also watch:
Management guided to 10% or better year-over-year growth in second-quarter investment-banking fees. JPMorgan generated $2.5 billion of IB fees in 2025Q2, so that commentary points to at least approximately $2.75 billion this quarter.
The backdrop appears supportive:
The key question is not whether fees increased, but whether pipelines remain executable amid geopolitical uncertainty, higher bond yields and volatile energy prices. Strong announced activity has less value if deal closings are pushed into later quarters.
Consensus calls for approximately $25.6 billion of NII, essentially flat with the first quarter and nearly 10% above 2025Q2.
Following the first-quarter report, JPMorgan maintained its 2026 outlook for:
The bank is asset-sensitive, so the higher-rate environment could provide some benefit. But the offset is persistent competition for deposits, including migration toward money-market funds and higher-yielding products. Management previously described consumer deposit margins as likely to remain roughly around current levels.
The most consequential earnings-call question may be whether JPMorgan raises full-year NII guidance. A modest beat without an outlook increase could be treated cautiously, especially if it is driven by Markets NII that management expects to reverse through noninterest revenue.
First-quarter expenses rose 14% to $26.9 billion, reflecting compensation, front-office hiring, marketing, brokerage costs and distribution fees. JPMorgan subsequently raised its adjusted 2026 expense outlook from approximately $105 billion to $106 billion, citing stronger business performance.
That is not necessarily negative: higher incentive compensation accompanying revenue growth is preferable to cost growth without revenue. But the market will want to see evidence that JPMorgan is producing operating leverage rather than allowing strong revenues to be fully absorbed by compensation and investment spending.
Management has repeatedly cautioned that the expense target is an outcome, not a fixed promise. If trading and investment banking remain unusually strong, expenses could finish above $106 billion.
A revenue beat accompanied by another expense-guidance increase could receive a muted reaction. The best outcome would be strong fee revenue with the $106 billion outlook maintained, or an increase supported by an even larger revenue upgrade.
JPMorgan entered the quarter with few signs of broad consumer stress:
Credit costs were $2.5 billion in the first quarter, comprising $2.3 billion of net charge-offs and a modest $191 million reserve build. Consumer reserves were released, while Wholesale reserves increased.
The second-quarter report should reveal whether higher energy costs and softer job creation have begun to affect lower-income households. The most important evidence will come from early-stage delinquencies and management’s macroeconomic assumptions—not necessarily current charge-offs, which are lagging indicators.
A material reserve build would pressure near-term earnings, although a conservative build may be preferable to maintaining low reserves through an increasingly uncertain environment.
At March 31, JPMorgan had:
Following the Federal Reserve stress test, the board authorized:
This confirms considerable capital flexibility. Nevertheless, investors should not assume the authorization will translate into immediate, maximum-rate repurchases. Jamie Dimon has said he would prefer buying stock at a meaningful discount, and JPMorgan’s valuation is elevated.
At the July 13 close, the shares traded at roughly 3.1 times March 31 tangible book value of $108.87 per share. Tangible book value should have grown since then, but the stock still commands a substantial premium that may discourage unusually aggressive buybacks.
Capital discussions will also include JPMorgan’s estimate that proposed Basel III and G-SIB changes could ultimately require about $20 billion of additional capital based on its current balance sheet.
On June 25, JPMorgan announced a major leadership reorganization:
The changes sharpen the field of potential successors to Jamie Dimon and broaden Rohrbaugh’s responsibilities beyond his Markets background. Investors are likely to ask about the division of responsibilities, management continuity and whether the reorganization changes the expected timing of Dimon’s eventual departure.
This may not affect second-quarter numbers, but it matters to the valuation: a meaningful portion of JPMorgan’s premium reflects investor confidence in its management, risk controls and execution.
JPMorgan closed July 13 at $334.57:
The shares have therefore recovered despite May’s expense-guidance increase and broader volatility. Combined with expectations for double-digit Markets and investment-banking growth, the setup suggests that a conventional EPS beat may not be sufficient.
The market is likely to reward durability more than the absolute second-quarter result:
JPMorgan should report another strong quarter, led by Markets, investment banking and balance-sheet growth. The balance sheet remains exceptionally strong, and the new dividend and repurchase authorization reinforce the capital-return story.
The risk is primarily one of expectations rather than current fundamentals. Investors appear prepared for trading revenue above $10 billion, double-digit investment-banking growth and EPS comfortably above the adjusted year-ago result. Accordingly, the call’s outlook—especially for NII, expenses, credit and second-half capital-markets activity—will probably matter more than the headline EPS beat or miss.
Research basis: JPMorgan’s 2025Q2 and 2026Q1 earnings materials and call transcript, its 2026Q1 Form 10-Q, June 2026 capital and management announcements, recent company and sector news, and market-price data through July 13, 2026.