| MS |
Report |
EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.98 vs. cons $2.85 |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Report |
Institutional Securities / Markets revenue (Equity+FICC) |
BEAT |
pred ~$7.6B vs. cons $6.9B (Equity ~$4.8B vs $4.36B, FICC ~$2.8B vs $2.52B) |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Report |
Wealth Management net new assets (NNA) |
BEAT |
pred ~$62B vs. cons ~$56B |
LOW |
| MS |
Guide |
Wealth Mgmt NII (sequential Q3 direction) |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.25B vs. cons ~$2.2B (Q3 2026, modest sequential increase off $2.17B) |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Guide |
IB/ECM pipeline conversion commentary |
BETTER |
guide advisory/ECM converting, IB fees ~$2.15B vs. cons ~$2.09B (Q2, pipeline building into 2H) |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Guide |
Full-year effective tax rate |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~22-23% vs. cons ~23% (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| MS |
Guide |
Quarterly dividend |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.10 vs. cons/current $1.00 (Q3 2026 raise likely) |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (STABILIZE) |
A clean EPS/trading beat plus short-covering of the crowded long-GS/short-MS trade (GS already +9% on its print) should drive a positive day-1 residual and lift near-term EPS estimates. But out-period math caps follow-through: Q2 markets strength is viewed as a peak that normalizes into 2H, and MS's ~4x TBV premium multiple leaves little revision headroom. Net: the initial gain largely holds rather than compounds, so estimates and price stabilize after day 1. |
LOW |