{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.98 vs. cons $2.85",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Institutional Securities / Markets revenue (Equity+FICC)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.6B vs. cons $6.9B (Equity ~$4.8B vs $4.36B, FICC ~$2.8B vs $2.52B)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Wealth Management net new assets (NNA)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$62B vs. cons ~$56B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Wealth Mgmt NII (sequential Q3 direction)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.25B vs. cons ~$2.2B (Q3 2026, modest sequential increase off $2.17B)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "IB/ECM pipeline conversion commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide advisory/ECM converting, IB fees ~$2.15B vs. cons ~$2.09B (Q2, pipeline building into 2H)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Full-year effective tax rate",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~22-23% vs. cons ~23% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Quarterly dividend",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.10 vs. cons/current $1.00 (Q3 2026 raise likely)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "A clean EPS/trading beat plus short-covering of the crowded long-GS/short-MS trade (GS already +9% on its print) should drive a positive day-1 residual and lift near-term EPS estimates. But out-period math caps follow-through: Q2 markets strength is viewed as a peak that normalizes into 2H, and MS's ~4x TBV premium multiple leaves little revision headroom. Net: the initial gain largely holds rather than compounds, so estimates and price stabilize after day 1.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}