| MS |
Report |
EPS (GAAP diluted) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.05 vs. cons $2.85 |
HIGH |
| MS |
Report |
Net revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$20.2B vs. cons $19.3B |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Report |
Equities trading revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.9B vs. cons $4.4B |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Guide |
Wealth Management NNA / flows (tax-season seasonality) |
LOWER |
guide/commentary implies ~$80-90B NNA vs. cons ~$100B run-rate (Q2 2026, seasonal tax-cash drag flagged by UBS) |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Guide |
Wealth Management pretax margin target |
BETTER |
guide ~30.5%-31% (reaffirmed 30%+ floor, trending toward next target) vs. cons ~30.0% (Q3 2026/FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Guide |
IB pipeline / H2 Advisory-Underwriting revenue growth outlook |
BETTER |
guide commentary implies ~mid-30s% YoY H2 IB growth (steady-to-improving pipeline, $1T+ sponsor dry powder) vs. cons ~high-20s% YoY |
LOW |
| MS |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MS |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.8% (FADE) |
MS should clear the raised bar (equities/FICC/IB all tracking peer strength from GS/JPM/WFC), likely driving a positive but not GS-caliber day-1 pop given (1) the crowded long-GS/short-MS pair trade partially unwinding rather than fresh buying, (2) MS's rich price-to-tangible-book multiple and price targets already clustered near the current price leaving little re-rating room, and (3) analysts (Najarian, Oppenheimer) flagging that only a 'significant' beat with strong pipeline commentary sustains gains. Full-year Street EPS/revenue estimates likely tick up modestly on the print (following sector-wide upward revisions after GS/JPM/WFC beats), which supports some follow-through, but seasonal Wealth Management NNA/flow softness (tax-season cash drag) and valuation-driven profit-taking after the ~25% YTD run should erode roughly half of the initial pop over the week, consistent with a fade rather than full follow-through or a flat stabilization. |
MEDIUM |