{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (GAAP diluted)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.05 vs. cons $2.85",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$20.2B vs. cons $19.3B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Equities trading revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.9B vs. cons $4.4B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Wealth Management NNA / flows (tax-season seasonality)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide/commentary implies ~$80-90B NNA vs. cons ~$100B run-rate (Q2 2026, seasonal tax-cash drag flagged by UBS)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Wealth Management pretax margin target",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~30.5%-31% (reaffirmed 30%+ floor, trending toward next target) vs. cons ~30.0% (Q3 2026/FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "IB pipeline / H2 Advisory-Underwriting revenue growth outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide commentary implies ~mid-30s% YoY H2 IB growth (steady-to-improving pipeline, $1T+ sponsor dry powder) vs. cons ~high-20s% YoY",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "MS should clear the raised bar (equities/FICC/IB all tracking peer strength from GS/JPM/WFC), likely driving a positive but not GS-caliber day-1 pop given (1) the crowded long-GS/short-MS pair trade partially unwinding rather than fresh buying, (2) MS's rich price-to-tangible-book multiple and price targets already clustered near the current price leaving little re-rating room, and (3) analysts (Najarian, Oppenheimer) flagging that only a 'significant' beat with strong pipeline commentary sustains gains. Full-year Street EPS/revenue estimates likely tick up modestly on the print (following sector-wide upward revisions after GS/JPM/WFC beats), which supports some follow-through, but seasonal Wealth Management NNA/flow softness (tax-season cash drag) and valuation-driven profit-taking after the ~25% YTD run should erode roughly half of the initial pop over the week, consistent with a fade rather than full follow-through or a flat stabilization.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}